UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh – Full Card Analysis

UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh – 2.28.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh. This event takes place at Mexico City Arena with fighters competing here at an elevation of over 7000 feet. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 34-17-0 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 36-15-0 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated on 2-27-2026 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Damian Pinas -280 vs Wes Schultz +220

• Anthony: The event today begins with middleweights Damian Pinas and Wes Schultz. It is important to note that fights today are at high elevation in Mexico City. Fighters in a class this heavy will not be able to fight for a hard three rounds, struggling to pace themselves to keep from gassing. This particular fight is a matchup between striker and grappler. Pinas is a talented striker from Suriname, specializing in muay thai and landing KOs. He does well attacking opponents from distance and sniping them with powerful punches and kicks. All of his professional fights have come by finish inside of two rounds. Pinas should also be treated as undefeated with his only loss coming due to connecting with an illegal kick. He is an exciting young athlete with still very raw skills. Schultz will be looking to grapple Pinas here to test his takedown defense and grappling. While Schultz is not a very intimidating fighter, he is a solid veteran that should be able to stick to his gameplan. It would not surprise me to see Schultz win here as the underdog, wrestling Pinas and completely sapping his cardio. The mostly likely outcome here is Pinas putting Schultz onto his highlight reel. Damian Pinas by Round Two KO
• Nick: Damian Pinas will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win on Contender Series over Vitor Costa. He is 23 years old and 8-1 professionally, training out of Nova Uniao in Brazil. Pinas is a physical specimen at middleweight. He is an explosive athlete with KO power and he forces his opponents to fight moving backwards and at his preferred pace. Wes Schultz will be making his UFC debut in this match-up, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via Sulev Stretch back in October of 2025. Schultz is 8-2 professionally, and 29 years old. Schultz is primarily a grappler who can dominate offensively if he can drag his opponents to the mat. He can be effective at striking range, but he’s raw in his approach and doesn’t really have the process or chin in place to survive lengthy exchanges at this level. This is an extremely binary match-up in which Schultz will be live for the upset early if he can take this fight to the mat. That being said, he’s going to be outsized by Pinas here and on the feet he’s going to be at a major disadvantage. Damian Pinas by Round One KO

Francis Marshall -800 vs Erik Silva +550

• Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Erik Silva and Francis Marshall. It seems that the UFC is doing Marshall a favor here with this soft matchmaking. In his last appearance, Marshall dominated Mairon Santos for a majority of the fight before losing via split decision. I was shocked to see two judges both so very incorrect. Silva is an opponent that Marshall should run through to get back into the win column. He has not competed in more than two years. The 38 year old offers little resistance when he is taken down and Marshall will wipe the floor with him today. Marshall is the much stronger wrestler averaging 2.75 takedowns landed per fight. He will be very quick to pursue takedowns here and establish top position over Silva. I expect this to be an easy win for Marshall as he grinds through the various positions to advance on Silva and eventually find a finish against him. Francis Marshall by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Marshall is 26-years old and 8-3 professionally. He’s well-rounded as an effective offensive striker, but four of his eight professional wins have actually come via rear naked choke. Marshall recently shifted camps to American Top Team (ATT) which is certainly going to expedite his improvement. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to Mairon Santos, but he’s been out of action since that fight back in March of 2025. Silva is 9-3 professionally and he’s been out of action since February of 2024. He is 0-2 in the UFC, coming back to back losses via finish.. At his best, Silva is a talented grappler with creative and dangerous BJJ. He has surprising strength for a featherweight. His striking is far from refined, but he has explosive power, especially at range and coming out of breaks. Silva is 38-years old and he hasn’t been very active. The line is wide here, but Marshall is the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Silva can be dangerous early, but his time away from the cage combined with his advanced age likely means he’s regressing as Marshall continues to improve. Francis Marshall by Round Two KO

Ernesta Kareckaite -185 vs Regina Tarin +150

• Anthony: Next is a bout between Regina Tarin and Ernesta Kareckaite. Tarin is stepping in here on short notice to replace the injured Sofia Montenegro. This matchup will be a 130-pound catchweight given Tarin had limited time to cut. I do not expect size to play much of a factor in this fight as both women are tall strikers that use their size very well. Kareckaite is always best at kickboxing range and that is where she will hope to keep this fight. She tends to connect with high striking volume although Kareckaite does not hit hard. Tarin made headlines last November with her knockout victory against Yurivia Jimenez. Her boxing really is crisp, ending combinations with powerful hooks and no pulled punches. She was a Golden Gloves champion and now pairs her great striking with a purple belt in jiu jitsu. It will be very interesting to see how Tarin matches up here with Kareckaite on short notice. Tarin will confidently exchange with Kareckaite here on the feet but she also has the grappling available to rely on to take rounds in this fight as needed. Although this is a tough ask for Tarin on short notice I like the value picking her to win today as a betting underdog. Regina Tarin by Decision
• Nick: Regina Tarin will be making her UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Sofia Montenegro. Tarin is a highly regarded prospect with a 7-0 professional record at 21 years old. She’s relatively well rounded with four wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. Her striking has come a long way since her professional debut. She has decent footwork and surprising power for her frame. On the mat, she’s an opportunistic finisher but her wrestling leaves a lot to be desired. Ernesta Kareckaite is 6-1-1 professionally and 27 years-old, coming off a narrow decision win over Nicolle Caliari. Kareckaite is primarily a striker. She works well at range and she has a solid understanding of footwork. As effective as she is offensively, she does tend to take a lot of damage in exchanges. She can be hittable, especially when she’s moving backwards. This is a volatile matchup, but I am seeing some value on Tarin here. She is a grappler with the better cardio and should have the home crowd behind her in a big way. Low confidence play, but I expect the underdog to pull it off. Regina Tarin by Decision

Javier Reyes -240 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +190

• Anthony: Here is a matchup at featherweight between Douglas Silva de Andrade and Javier Reyes. This is the UFC debut for Reyes who earned a contract last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. The Columbian has accrued a lot of experience fighting regionally and now he does appear ready to test the waters against top caliber opponents. He has battled some quality competition over the past few years in LFA. Although I do not think Reyes has the highest ceiling, this seems like a favorable matchup for him in a debut appearance. Andrade is 40 years old and significantly smaller than Reyes. I do not like Andrade making this move up in weight so late in his career. I do not think he really has the strength to implement his wrestling in this weight class. Reyes will be the more powerful striker, landing clean shots on Andrade from distance and pumping out his jab very early. Reyes has an edge of more than four-inches reach in this matchup. He is also going to be landing knees on Andrade as he moves forward into the pocket here against him. D’Silva has always had questionable cardio too, an issue not likely to be resolved by simply deciding not to cut so much weight. Reyes should keep Andrade at the end of his punches, cruising his way to victory here as he tires. Javier Reyes by Decision
• Nick: Javier Reyes will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of Justice Torres. Reyes is 32 years old and 22-5 professionally. He’s a potent finisher and relatively well rounded with ten wins coming via KO and eight coming via submission. As dangerous as he is offensively, his hyper aggressive style can also make him susceptible to taking damage in exchanges. His cardio is somewhat questionable, and it is notable he has been KO’d in two of his three most recent losses. Douglas Andrade is a brawler with a lot of power in his strikes. He’s very athletic, but what stands out about him is his toughness and aggressive style. He likes to pressure his opponents early in fights and often overwhelms them by doing so. He’s getting up there in age at 40-years old, but he’s still a tough out for any fighter who isn’t of advance skill level. Reyes will be the much bigger fighter here and de Andrade’s age is concerning. Still, I expect his superior experience should shine through here as long as he can stay safe early. Douglas Silva de Andrade by Decision

Cristian Quinonez -700 vs Kris Moutinho +500

• Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Kris Moutinho and Cristian Quinonez. It has been two years since Quinonez last competed, coming off back to back losses in the UFC. From my research he appears to be ready for another run after having a proper fight camp ahead of this matchup. Quinonez has been working on his grappling defense and now should be more complete than the last version we saw. Quinonez will also not need to worry about his submission defense in this fight facing a pure boxer. This is a very favorable matchup for Quinonez to finally get another win. Moutinho is going to be marching forward and boxing while Quinonez can place shots around and through his guard. The Mexican is much quicker than Moutinho with slightly longer reach as well. It will be Quinonez landing more effectively with his jab and digging the better shots to the body throughout this matchup. Moutinho has been tough to knockout in some fights but I think Quinonez can find a finish here as long as he picks his shots. It would surprise me to see Moutinho walk forward and eat everything without getting knocked down here. Quinonez is one of my most confident picks for the event today. Cristian Quinonez by Round Two KO
• Nick: Cristian Quinonez is fairly well-rounded, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top-level competition. He’s coming off back to back losses for the first time in his career and he has been out of action since February of 2024. Quinonez throws powerful strikes and he has offensive upside in grappling exchanges, but defensively it seems his skills are still far from refined. Quinonez will have a power advantage here, but he’ll need to make sure to pace himself considering this fight is taking place at considerable elevation. Kris Moutinho is a tough and gritty fighter and he’s generally well-rounded. That being said he is hittable in exchanges and he lacks the athleticism required to find sustained success at the UFC level. He is 0-3 in the UFC, coming off a brutal KO loss to Malcolm Wellmaker. The line is wide here Quinonez is generally mediocre. Still, Moutinho just isn’t quite UFC level. He’s likely to be too hittable in exchanges to deal with Quinonez’s speed here. Cristian Quinonez by Round Two KO

Ailin Perez -165 vs Macy Chiasson +135

• Anthony: Next is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Ailin Perez and Macy Chiasson. This should be an entertaining scrap between two ranked contenders. Perez will look to test her elite grappling against the likes of Chiasson today. Throughout her tenure in the UFC we have not seen Chiasson grounded very often. She averages 72 percent takedown defense given her big frame and strong hips. Chiasson is the bigger woman, but she only uses size to advantage when striking. I think the win streak continues for Perez as long as she successfully converts her takedowns. Perez should be able to smother Chiasson in this fight with her excellent chain wrestling and top pressure. We have previously seen Perez score 10 of 15 takedowns in a fight against Ashlee Evans-Smith and 6 of 11 takedowns against Joselyne Edwards. It is worrying that Perez could gas out if she is shooting over and over in this bout. She would be wise to conserve energy here and convert on her first takedown attempt in each round. I think this could be a sketchy performance from Perez but I still expect her to get the win here nonetheless. Perez has little to worry about here as she attempts to wrap up Chiasson. Ailin Perez by Decision
• Nick: Ailin Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. In her most recent fights, she showed her grappling is improving at a rapid rate. She is coming off five consecutive wins via decision and most of those wins have been secured with her controlling her opponents on the mat. Macy Chiasson is most effective striking in the clinch. She carries a powerful muay-thai base from which she mixes in dangerous elbows. She uses her reach well, but she is most effective when she closes distance and pulls her opponents into her strikes. She’s big for the division, and she’s able to outmuscle the majority of her opponents at bantamweight. As talented as she is, she has had issues making weight. It’s also notable she enters this fight off back to back losses. Perrez should find success early here, but I expect Chiasson can defend takedowns as this fight wears on. A low confidence play, but I see value on the underdog here as she overcomes adversity and takes this fight late. Perez’s cardio is questionable at best. Macy Chiasson by Decision

Ryan Gandra -700 vs Jose Medina +500

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a middleweight fight between Ryan Gandra and Jose Medina. It is important to note that fights today are at high elevation in Mexico City. Fighters in a class this heavy will not be able to fight for a hard three rounds, struggling to pace themselves to keep from gassing. Medina has been finished in both previous appearances after once being considered very durable. He has an extremely limited skillset and still remains winless through four fights in the UFC. Medina will oblige his opponents in a brawl but the issue is that he does not hit hard enough. Gandra is much more technically skilled than Medina and also the harder hitter. The Brazilian is also talented when it comes to finishing his fights on the mat. I think we could see Gandra pursue takedowns here rather than slugging it out against Medina. Gandra is a brown belt in jiu jistu, far better than Medina and capable of finishing the fight from his back. I do not expect this to be more than two rounds of action between these fighters. Gandra seems like a safe bet to win by finish again here in this fight. Medina does not represent a significant step up in competition. Ryan Gandra by Round One Submission
• Nick: Ryan Gandra will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of Ty Miller Gandra is 30 years old and 8-1 professionally. He’s generally well rounded, with four of his wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. Gandra is an accurate pressure striker who has dangerous BJJ if his fights hit the mat. He’s a tough fighter to get a read on as his resume lacks depth, but does seem to be making considerable improvements from fight to fight. Jose Medina is one of the few fighters ever to be awarded a UFC contract off a Contender Series loss. He is 11-6 professionally, and 0-3 in the UFC. Medina’s greatest quality is certainly his chin. In many of his fights, we see him take massive damage and continue to push a pace in spite of it. He is far from technically skilled, but his toughness and durability have allowed him to find moderate success in the sport. Medina is known for his ability, but I expect Gandra can steamroll him early. Simply put, it’s tough to survive in the UFC if your only true talent is toughness. Ryan Gandra by Round One Submission

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Santiago Luna -650 vs Angel Pacheco +475

• Anthony: The main card begins with this fight between bantamweights Santiago Luna and Angel Pacheco. Luna is one of the prospects to look out for fighting on tonight’s card. The Mexican is undefeated with a professional record of 7-0. Luna has won every one of his fights by finish, with four submission wins and three victories by knockout. He is a very fluid striker with long arms and a good frame for this weight. Luna trains at Entram Gym and really seems to be building a strong resume here at the start of his career. Pacheco is a mediocre opponent that will continue the slow build for Borderboy. While Pacheco will engage with opponents throwing some heat, he is not very responsible in terms of his striking defense. Luna will not be eating clean shots from Pacheco being much more selective with his own offense. I think this will look like a brawl early while Luna actually rolls with most punches and finds space to work himself. Luna can land strikes on the in-betweens while Pacheco is more sloppy and reliant on connecting from range. I am expecting this to be an easy win for Luna who should be accustomed to these conditions training primarily in Tijuana. It is hard to trust a 21 year old but Luna is really one of my most confident picks for this event. Santiago Luna by Round Two KO
• Nick: Santiago Luna is 7-0 professionally and just 21 years old. He’s coming off an impressive UFC debut in which he KO’d Quang Le in the first round. Luna is relatively well-rounded, with three wins via KO and four via submission. He’s a fluid striker with a solid understanding of footwork. He fights at a torrid pace and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to move backwards. Additionally, his offensive grappling is extremely underrated and could prove to be his greatest skill as he climbs the ranks in the promotion. Angel Pacheco is 34 years-old and 7-3 professionally. He’s a brawler in nature, and his outstanding durability is the main reason he has made it this far in his career. As tough as he is, his technical skills are far from refined. He has no singular standout skill and he’s been out of action for nearly two years. Pacheco has been durable to this point in his career, but I expect he’ll be majorly outclassed here. Luna should dominate as this fight wears on. Santiago Luna by Round Two KO

Imanol Rodriguez -450 vs Kevin Borjas +340

• Anthony: Here is a fight between flyweights Imanol Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas. Rodriguez is an exciting 26 year old prospect who earned a contract last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. He also competed on The Ultimate Fighter before losing to eventual tournament winner Joseph Morales. Rodriguez is a fast and dangerous boxer with finishes in every win thus far. That lack of experience is a concern for me betting Rodriguez in this fight at elevation. Borjas is a really solid athlete here at 125 pounds. I think that Borjas will be able to keep pace with Rodriguez and potentially outbox him in rounds two and three. Rodriguez needs to be respected because of his power compared to that of Borjas. He is the rightful favorite in this matchup but the odds seem completely inflated to me. Borjas now offered at +340 seems like a fair value bet.  Imanol Rodriguez by Round Two KO
• Nick: Imanol Rodriguez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Roque Conceicao on Contender Series back in October of 2025. Prior to that fight he advanced to the Semi Finals on The Ultimate Fighter 33, where he fell via split decision to the season champion in Joseph Morales. Rodriguez is well rounded, but most of his success has come on the feet as five of his six professional wins have come via KO. He’s a decent wrestler as well, and generally he’s one of the more powerful and explosive athletes that we’re going to see at flyweight. Kevin Borjas is 10-4 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and one coming via decision. At 28-years-old he continues to show considerable improvements every time we see him fight. He’s primarily a striker, but he has solid takedown defense and generally does a good job working back to his feet if he’s taken down. This line is too wide, but Rodriguez is the more powerful striker in this match-up as well as the much better wrestler. Rodriguez is a justified favorite here assuming he can mix his striking and grappling. Imanol Rodriguez by Decision

Edgar Chairez -320 vs Felipe Bunes +250

• Anthony: Next is another fight at flyweight between Edgar Chairez and Felipe Bunes. Chairez has become a bit of a staple fighting on these cards in Mexico. He is a consistent fighter that brings a style of aggression that fans always respect. He is exciting with his boxing and kicks but also when utilizing his grappling. Bunes is far more one-dimensional, relying heavily on his wrestling to get anything done. Bunes will approach this fight by electing to grapple and rolling through positions in an attempt to submit Chairez. Bunes could find himself attempting a submission here early but given the questions I have already about his cardio, there is no way I want to support Bunes here fighting in Mexico City. Chairez’ last appearance was a victory in this arena when facing CJ Vergara. He should do better pacing himself and not be reckless as these two are scrambling. I think he is the rightful favorite in this matchup but I do not like betting him as odds are inflated at -320. It may not be the most convincing of wins for Chairez if Bunes can control him by grappling here early. I do believe ultimately Chairez will win here using his hands or by locking in a submission as Bunes fades. Edgar Chairez by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Felipe Bunes 36-years-old and 14-8 professionally. He is relatively well-rounded, with eight wins coming via submission and three via KO. He’s dangerous offensively, but somewhat reckless in his attacks. He’s usually the better BJJ player in most of his match-ups, but he’s running into a difficult stylistic opponent here against Chairez. Edgar Chairez is 12-6 professionally, a fighter who gained notoriety for a competitive loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice and gave a solid showing of himself against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. His three most recent wins have come via submission, but Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable, but he does take a considerable amount of damage in striking exchanges. Bunes usually thrives on the mat, but Chairez is the better wrestler in this matchup. I expect he can finish this fight no matter where it goes. Edgar Chairez by Round Two Submission

Daniel Zellhuber -500 vs King Green +360

• Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup between King Green and Daniel Zellhuber. Green is a veteran, 13 years older than Zellhuber but still capable of pushing him to the limit in this fight. He also fought a clean fight in December beating Lance Gibson Jr via split decision. Green always approaches fights with the same style and here it will be fun to watch him battle Zellhuber’s great kickboxing. It will take a savvy approach from Green to overcome what is a six-inch reach advantage. Zellhuber lost to Trey Ogden as a -400 favorite and in his last fight he lost to Michael Johnson closing at -800 odds. I think it is impossible to trust him as this large a favorite once again. The Mexican is physically gifted and rather skilled, but I do not think he has the power to sleep Green in this matchup. King Green should be able to roll with punches here early and take over with his boxing as this fight goes late. Zellhuber really struggles when fatigued and feeling the pressure of his opponents. I hope Green can put forth a vintage showing, taunting and unloading long combinations on a younger fighter who feels overwhelmed. There is value betting Green at these odds and given he should be favored if this fight does go a full three rounds. King Green by Decision
• Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but he’s coming off back-to-back losses. He can be overly tentative at times as he waits for fights to come to him. King Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. Green is getting up there in age, but he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. The age gap is dramatic here, with Zellhuber nearly 13 years younger than Green. This price feels way off, but I expect the speed and the athleticism of Zellhuber to prove too much for this version of the underdog. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision

David Martinez -320 vs Marlon Vera +250

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at bantamweight between Marlon Vera and David Martinez. This should be a fun battle between strikers and a good opportunity for Martinez to showcase his boxing. Vera is a staple of this division but here he faces a talented prospect while reeling after three losses in a row. Martinez got the job done facing the veteran Rob Font in his last matchup as well. I think he is entering this fight with good momentum and seemingly in peak physical shape. Martinez trains at elevation in Coyoacan and can push a very high pace in this matchup. He averages 4.85 significant strikes per minute and generally fights much more aggressively than Vera. It seems unlikely that either of these two will win by knockout. Martinez should comfortably score throughout this fight and earn the judge’s decision rather easily. He is going to land combinations early as Vera tries to establish his range. Vera almost never does enough to win round one. He is probably going to fall behind in this fight and stalk forward throwing hard in an attempt to claw back into it. Martinez’s hand speed will be a huge factor in earning him this victory over Chito. David Martinez by Decision
• Nick: Martinez is 13-1 professionally, with ten of those wins coming by knockout. Martinez has taken on a solid level of regional opponents, as he has primarily fought for Combate Global. He has explosive power for a bantamweight, and his instincts as a striker are advanced for someone his age and level of experience. He’s coming off a massive win over a divisional mainstay in Rob Font, and he enters this match-up with a lot of momentum. Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations.  Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. As talented as he is, he is coming off three consecutive losses. He’s been overly tentative of late, and it seems he’s slowing down in general. This fight should play out closer than the line suggests, but I’m siding with the favorite. These are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. David Martinez by Decision

Brandon Moreno -220 vs Lone’er Kavanagh +180

• Anthony: The main event is a bout at flyweight between Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh. This is a short notice appearance for Kavanagh who was the only flyweight willing to face Moreno here on his turf. It is obvious that Moreno should headline this event in Mexico City. The former champion has a huge fan-base and a style that embodies the Mexican fighting spirit. This matchup against Kavanagh is particularly interesting as it will likely be a fight contested largely at boxing range. I am a big fan of Kavanagh and his fluid striking from the outside. I do expect him to have strong moments here early despite being a moderate underdog. Kavanagh will land clean strikes early but Moreno has a great chin and elite defensive awareness. Moreno tends to use his wrestling sparingly, but he has a clear edge in terms of his grappling if he would like to engage Kavanagh on the mat. It is imperative that Kavanagh attack here aggressively early in hopes of getting back in the win column. I expect him to make the most of this short notice opportunity, brawling against Moreno and chasing the early finish. He is a bit quicker than Moreno at this age but I do not think that will be a factor as this bout starts to go late. Moreno will be landing the more frequent offense here and scoring more favor with the judges. I think he is the rightful betting favorite and I am confident in picking him to get this win. Moreno will stay composed throughout this fight and likely take over by the end of round two. Kavanagh will struggle to go five rounds here at elevation and I expect Moreno to eventually submit him via rear naked choke. This is a tough opponent for him to face even if provided a full fight camp to prepare. Brandon Moreno by Round Three Submission
• Nick: Brandon Moreno, a former UFC Flyweight Champion,  is one of the better offensive wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward and forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. He can be over aggressive at times and present openings to be countered, which could prove troublesome to him in this match-up. He is coming off a loss to Tatsuro Taira, and he’ll be looking to get back in the win column here in front of his Mexican home crowd. Lone’er Kavanagh is taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Asu Almabaev. Kavanagh is 9-1 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO. Kavanagh is 26-years old, and he’s already well developed for his age. Prior to breaking into the UFC, he primarily fought for a respectable regional promotion via Cage Warriors. He’s a competent grappler, but a dangerous and aggressive striker. He fights well in the pocket and his power for a flyweight makes him a prospect worth keeping an eye on. He is 2-1 so far in the promotion, coming off the first loss of his career where he fell via KO to Charles Johnson. He is once again taking a major step up in level of competition here as he’ll be taking on a former champion. This should be a fun scrap and I expect Kavanaugh to have his moments early here. That being said, Moreno has the far superior cardio, the much higher level of experience, so it’s tough not to expect to see him pull this one off in the later rounds. Brandon Moreno by Round Four KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS