UFC Houston: Strickland vs Hernandez – 2.21.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Houston: Strickland vs Hernandez. This should be an event stacked with great fights and matchups between ranked contenders. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 25-12-0 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
- Nick: 28-9-0 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)
*Fight odds were last updated on 2-20-2026 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST
Carli Judice -800 vs Juliana Miller +550
- Anthony: The event begins with this fight at women’s flyweight between Carli Judice and Juliana Miller. Judice is the biggest favorite on this card coming off wins by knockout in both previous performances. Her boxing skillset is clearly evident in each fight, comfortably exchanging with opponents in the pocket and landing meaningful attacks. Miller has struggled throughout her career when it comes to her striking defense. I am expecting Judice to really cruise here in moments facing Miller on the feet. Miller is able to threaten opponents with her offensive grappling but she does not seem to score takedowns with high accuracy at all. Miller cannot be trusted to maintain top position given her size and poor wrestling acumen. I think it will be very hard for Miller to win this fight so I am picking Judice rather confidently. Judice can win by decision but she is also capable of finding a finish by landing multiple knockdowns. Carli Judice by Decision
- Nick: Carli Judice is 5-2 professionally and 26 years-old. She is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off back-to-back wins via KO. Judice is primarily a striker, and she’s surprisingly sound technically with someone with her limited level of experience. She has a good understanding of footwork and she throws out a lot of volume in exchanges. Her defensive grappling ability is mediocre at best, and it is likely going to be tested here against Juliana Miller. Juliana Miller is an aggressive BJJ player and very tall and lengthy for the division. She’s extremely raw and lacks technical ability on the feet, but she’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. While her striking is far from refined, she almost always puts out consistent volume. Her cardio has been solid and her BJJ is surprisingly advanced. As talented as she is on the mat, she’s just 4-3 professionally and 1-2 in the UFC. If she can’t find the takedowns she needs to get her ground game going, she almost always finds herself decimated on the feet. Judice is the better striker here by a wide margin. Miller can be dangerous if this fight hits the mat, but her wrestling ability isn’t likely to be advanced enough to take it there. I expect Judice can mostly keep this fight standing as she builds momentum with each passing minute. She should justify her price as the heavy favorite here. Carli Judice by Round Two KO
Yadier del Valle -420 vs Jordan Leavitt +330
- Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Yadier del Valle and Jordan Leavitt. Del Valle is undefeated, 10-0 with a very polished skillset. I am a fan of his offensive striking with big power for this weight class. While his best work is often done boxing, del Valle is also comfortable on the mat. He rolls with a great group of athletes training at Gracie Barra Houston. Del Valle also won in both of his UFC appearances thus far via submission. Leavitt will struggle to get respect from del Valle as they exchange back and forth. The punches come in long combinations for del Valle and I really like his dirty boxing against opponents in close range. I expect the Cuban to force his opponent into becoming a wrestler here. Leavitt will need to be careful to not only dodge powerful boxing in this matchup but it is also critical that he does not expose his neck. Del Valle has proven capable of securing quick guillotines and early submissions available from headlock position. I think he also has the advantage of strength here facing a decent wrestler like Leavitt. Del Valle is one of my most confident picks tonight. His aggressive style will overwhelm Leavitt. Yadier del Valle by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Yadier del Valle is 10-0 professionally and 29-years old. He’s an explosive athlete who can finish a fight on the mat or at striking range, but he’s somewhat unconventional in his approach. He throws from strange angles and he often stays in the pocket too long which leads to him eating counter shots. Still, he does seem to be making improvements from fight to fight, and he is entering his athletic prime. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner and his grappling has improved dramatically since he made his professional debut. Jordan Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He has excellent cardio, and while his strikes don’t do much damage his unorthodox style does seem to be enough to keep him out of serious trouble. He’s moving down a weight class here after fighting the entirety of his UFC career at lightweight. It will be interesting to see how he looks following a much tougher weight cut. Leavitt isn’t terrible, but moving down a weight class against a strong and explosive athlete is likely to pose major problems for him here. Yadier del Valle has been impressive, even prior to his UFC debut, and he genuinely seems like a prospect worth keeping an eye on. I expect he can dominate here, once he settles in. Yadier del Valle by Round One Submission
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -210 vs Phil Rowe +170
- Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and Phil Rowe. It is the promotional debut for Lebosnoyani who earned a contract last season on Dana White’s Contender Series. The recent wins for Lebosnoyani have been impressive while his resume is littered with quality opponents during his time fighting with LFA. He is a well-rounded fighter but his preference has always been wrestling and grappling. His striking has continued to improve but compared to Rowe I think he will be at a disadvantage. Rowe is four-inches taller than Lebosnoyani and the reach difference of more than eight inches. I would expect Rowe to fight Lebosnoyani here from the outside, jabbing often and taking the lead with his strikes. Lebosnoyani will be forced to shoot and early success grappling would indicate that he should be beating Phil Rowe. Not only does Lebosnoyani clearly have the edge here when wrestling, he can also likely stay safe when navigating this matchup on the feet. Rowe tends to get hit rather often and he has a negative striking differential. I am not convinced that he would take the judge’s scorecards here even if he were to largely keep this matchup on the feet. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by Decision
- Nick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of Jack Congdon. He is 9-2 and relatively well rounded with 5 wins coming via submission and three coming via KO. Lebosnoyani is an opportunistic finisher on the mat, but he prefers to strike at range. He fights out of a bladed stance, throwing a lot of kicks, but he often fights with his hands down which can make him a dangerous fighter to back with any sort of confidence. Phil Rowe is certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, but he has been wildly inconsistent with a 4-4 record in the UFC. He has a ridiculous 80.5-inch reach as one of the tallest welterweights on the UFC roster. Rowe does his best work fighting at range. He uses his length well, but he does tend to spend more time in the clinch than someone with his reach should. Additionally, most of his success has come against a very low level of opponent. The line feels too wide here given Rowe’s advantages in both size and experience. Still, Lebosnoyani is the better athlete and he enters this matchup with the more well-rounded game. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by Decision
Ramiz Brahimaj -130 vs Punahele Soriano +110
- Anthony: Next is another fight at welterweight between Ramiz Brahimaj and Punahele Soriano. This is a rather low-level matchup given the overall resume of both of these men. Brahimaj enters this bout on a three fight winning streak but the level of competition he has beaten is even worse than this. Brahimaj has developed his skills to become much more serviceable but I think he has major gaps that continue to separate him from top tier fighters. Brahimaj has elite submission grappling but his willingness to pull guard may be a bad idea in this matchup. Soriano has proven to be a very capable wrestler and he could potentially make this fight easy by maintaining top position on the mat. He averages 1.83 takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. I also believe Soriano is the stronger man having previously fought at middleweight. Soriano must protect his neck when securing takedowns but once established in top position I do not worry about Brahimaj rolling and securing quality submission attempts. At near even odds I consider Soriano to be a good bet. He is the more explosive athlete with more power in his hands. Soriano has also won fights before by just sitting in top position and accruing more than ten minutes of control time. Punahele Soriano by Decision
- Nick: This is a fun matchup between two fighters who enter on three-fight win streaks. Ramiz Brahimaj is primarily a grappler with twelve of his thirteen professional wins coming via submission. He usually starts fights aggressive, but if he can’t find the early finish his cardio has been somewhat of a weakness. On the feet, he has sneaky power and he pushes at a good pace. However, he often overexerts while throwing combinations and he seems very willing to take damage in exchanges. Brahimaj will be very dangerous early. Punahele Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks fairly polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he is an underrated grappler with a solid Judo base. He was an all-American wrestler in high school, but he certainly seems more inclined to stand and trade at the UFC level. These are two potent finishers and at their best they are both extremely aggressive. Brahimaj will be dangerous if he can take this fight to the mat, but I expect Soriano’s superior striking will shine through here well before he is grounded. Punahele Soriano by Round One KO
Joselyne Edwards -330 vs Nora Cornolle +260
- Anthony: Next is a bantamweight matchup between Nora Cornolle and Joselyne Edwards. Last year was another solid showing for Edwards who has now won three fights in a row. She will try to defend her ranking here against Cornolle who is rather desperate for this victory. The French fighter is a decorated muay thai specialist that wants to compete striking here against Edwards. She does very well landing offense inside of the clinch and mixing up her attacks from range constantly. Cornolle showed flashes of impressive grappling in her fight against Hailey Cowan. I believe that bettors are overlooking her skillset when compared against Edwards on the mat. These are two strong athletes when the fight does hit the mat and I expect to see those exchanges play out. Both women are very confident in their striking but also smart enough to clinch as needed and find moments of reprieve in their bouts. At these odds I think the value is clearly Cornolle who will give Edwards three hard, competitive rounds. I believe she has the speed and overall kickboxing skillset to battle out each round on the feet against Edwards. Nora Cornolle by Decision
- Nick: This fight represents a rematch in which Edwards was robbed via decision back in September of 2023. She dominated that fight on the mat, but Cornolle was gifted the win in her UFC debut in front of her French home crowd. Nora Cornolle is 9-2 professionally, having spent her early professional career fighting for UAE Warriors. She is 3-2 in the UFC, coming off a decision loss to a tough out in Karol Rosa. Cornolle is primarily a striker who has surprising power for her frame. She fights out of a Muay Thai style stance, and generally does a decent job putting together high volume combinations. While she can be dangerous, she is hittable in exchanges. Additionally, her overall grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. She has decent offensive grappling ability, but she has trouble getting back to her feet if she’s taken down by her opponent. She’s almost always in very close fights as she doesn’t really have potent finishing ability anywhere. The line feels a bit wide here, but Edwards should be able to secure the victory this time around. She’s the better fighter everywhere, and she’s already proven she can outclass Cornolle on the mat with relative ease. Joselyne Edwards by Decision
Alden Coria -400 vs Luis Gurule +300
- Anthony: This is a fight at flyweight between Alden Coria and Luis Gurule. The matchup today serves as a platform to build the young prospect Coria here in Houston. This 27 year old really impressed in his debut with the promotion, beating Alessandro Costa on short notice at Noche UFC. Coria connected on 44 percent of significant strike attempts and earned a knockout win in that fight thanks to his high-level boxing. Coria trains at 4oz Fight Club and also proudly represents this city. The crowd should be giving him full support in this matchup against Gurule. These betting odds may seem wide but I think there is a gap in skill that warrants such a wide price tag. Coria really does seem to be on the up while Gurule is not nearly as polished a fighter. Gurule relies on his power and his strength grappling to win here at flyweight. I prefer to take Coria who not only will hurting Gurule with his hands but also likely double his volume. I expect Coria to look better here with each passing minute and punch landed. Gurule does not seem to have the cardio to match this very high level of output. Coria is one of my most confident picks for today. Alden Coria by Decision
- Nick: Alden Coria is 11-3 professionally and 27 years old. He’s been somewhat inconsistent to this point in his career, but he has taken on a quality level of regional opponents having primarily fought for LFA and Fury FC. Cora can be dangerous everywhere offensively, with five of his eleven professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s coming off an extremely impressive performance in his UFC debut where he KO’d Alessandro Costa in a fight he took on short notice. Luis Gurule is 32 years old and 10-2 professionally, with five of those wins coming by way of knockout. Primarily a striker, Gurule is quick in and out of breaks with surprising power for his frame. He’s coming off back-to-back losses and he’s now 0-2 under the UFC banner after entering the promotion undefeated. Gurule tends to have success early in fights, but he is overaggressive and far from defensively sound. Additionally his cardio seems questionable at best. The line feels wide, but Coria is the much more talented striker and his speed advantage here should prove to be the difference. Gurule can be dangerous early, but I see him fading as this fight wears on. Alden Coria by Round Two KO
Alibi Idiris -130 vs Ode Osbourne +110
- Anthony: This is a fight at flyweight between Alibi Idiris and Ode Osbourne. Both of these men are entering the bout coming off losses in their last appearance. Osbourne dropped a decision in his last fight, facing Steve Erceg. He has now lost four of his last five appearances now getting older, fighting at flyweight as a 34 year old. Idiris is a younger fighter from Kazakhstan, training with contemporaries like Shavkat Rakhmonov. He is a very complete martial artist who blends great wrestling with striking attacks. In terms of his stand-up Idiris is comfortable with his kickboxing. He throws a wide arsenal of attacks and moves very light on his feet from the outside. Osbourne is more of a one-hit fighter, stalking opponents from range and looking to connect with his biggest strikes. Osbourne has not found much success lately but he is a legitimate KO threat here at flyweight. The southpaw stance will actually allow more entries to Idiris as he does engage with Osbourne on the feet. Idiris also clearly has the advantage grappling when compared to Osbourne who was submitted four times before. Idiris is the rightful betting favorite, likely relying on his judo and grappling to earn a win. This fight will likely go the full three round distance unless Idiris can really grapple hard and earn a win by submission. Alibi Idiris by Decision
- Nick: Alibi Idiris was awarded a UFC contract as The Ultimate Fighter Season 33 Flyweight Tournament.Champion runner-up, even though he lost in the tournament final to Joseph Morales. Alibi Idris is a highly regarded prospect with a 10-1 professional record coming into this fight. He trains out of Kazakhstan with Shavkhat Rakhmanov, and he’s one of the more well-rounded fighters to debut in quite some time. Idris is a creative striker offensively with surprising power for his frame. That being said ,most of his success has come on the mat as he’s an elite grappler with dangerous BJJ. As talented as he is, he came out flat his last time out against Morales. He was outgrappled badly and he was forced to fight at Morales’ pace. Ode Osbourne has crisp striking and he does an excellent job switching stances. He has a powerful back-step power kick; he does a good job diversifying his strikes, and more often than not he’s able to lean on his athleticism to drown his opponents. He works well at range, but he sometimes leaves himself open to counters in exchanges. His wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, but he does carry an arsenal of dangerous submissions if his fights hit the mat. These are two volatile fighters, which makes this a tough fight to call. I’ll take a shot on the underdog here given his advantages in experience and size. Ode Osbourne by Decision
Carlos Leal -150 vs Chidi Njokuani +125
- Anthony: The preliminary card ends at welterweight with Chidi Njokuani facing Carlos Leal. I have a difficult time handicapping this matchup between fighters that I think are rather volatile. Njokuani is a great athlete with immense power but a skillset that is limited to successfully kickboxing and landing occasional strikes in the clinch. Njokuani should be favored here given his size and finishing ability, but really it is most likely that if he wins he will do so in round one. He certainly will be dangerous here early but Leal figures to be the much fresher athlete here late. He fights with a very consistent motor and high-volume attack. He is able to keep a pace here that Njokuani will likely struggle to match in rounds two and three. Leal may even mix in his offensive wrestling to further tax Njokuani’s gas tank throughout this bout. Leal also has a bad habit of dropping his hands low before he is even engaging. It is critical that Leal slows down this fight and avoids sitting at range early where he can get knocked out. I do believe regardless of outcome this fight will not go the full distance. This matchup is close though and I have a very hard time confidently choosing either side. Chidi Njokuani by Round Two KO
- Nick: Prior to debuting with the UFC, Carlos Leal made a splash with the PFL where he broke into the welterweight tournament off a win on their Challenger Series, and eventually advanced to the semi-finals. Leal is 22-7 professionally, with eleven of his professional wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Leal is more than willing to eat shots to return them. He has one-shot knockout power, but his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a dangerous fighter to back as a heavy favorite. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently falling via KO to Muslim Salikhov. Chidi Njokuani is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he has decent BJJ as well, but he is certainly most comfortable when his fights stay standing. His career has seen a resurgence since he moved down to welterweight, and he enters this fight having won three of his last four fights. He’s had issues making the weight at times, but when he does his 80” reach advantage makes him a difficult puzzle to solve for most of the roster at 170 lbs. These are two potent finishers. I slightly prefer the Njokuani side as his six-inch reach advantage in a large cage should allow him to time the bigger shots here. Leal will be dangerous, but he’s open to a counter if he’s not careful closing the distance. Chidi Njokuani by Round One KO
Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Michel Pereira -175 vs Zach Reese +140
- Anthony: The main card begins with this fight at middleweight between Zach Reese and Michel Pereira. Reese is a live underdog here fighting here in his home of Houston, Texas. I have seen him making some improvements in terms of his patience and overall Fight IQ. However, Reese is still always going to be a fighter that puts himself into harm’s way in pursuit of his offense. Reese will use his long frame to confidently land overhands and powerful body kicks against Pereira. I expect that if Reese does not stop Pereira right away, we will see the Brazilian take control and pick his shots. The best bet for this particular fight is that these two will not go the distance. Both of Reese’s career losses have come by round one knockout. Pereira seems to hit harder here at middleweight and I expect him to trade explosive attacks with Reese in the first round. Betting on Pereira is betting on his chin to survive those first few blows. Pereira could also lean on his experience and grappling here, controlling the fighter who has longer reach and more weapons from range early on. Reese may be able to survive to a decision but I expect to see him completely gassed out matching Pereira’s output if he is forced to fight into round two or round three. Michel Pereira by Round Two KO
- Nick: Earlier in his career, Michel Pereira would fight like a video game character in the way he flipped around the cage. He can be one of the more entertaining fighters to watch, but his Fight IQ is always in question. He has been known to throw ridiculous looking spinning kicks and backflip onto his opponents for pretty much no reason. This can put an unnecessary dent in his gas tank, but he does have strong striking ability and he has shown a solid chin against decent competition. He enters this match-up off three consecutive losses, but it seems he’s growing more intelligent in the cage from fight to fight. He’s pulled back on the wild antics in favor of a more conservative approach, but this new approach can be frustrating to watch as a backer of his as he can be overly tentative. Zach Reese is 9-3 professionally. At his best he thrives on aggression. Seven of Reese’s ten professional victories had come via first round stoppage. As impressive as Reese has been on the surface, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Reese is long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. He’s athletic with a solid frame, but it’s tough to know what to expect of him at the UFC level as he has been generally inconsistent to this point of his career. This is another volatile match-up, but Pereira is the much more talented fighter if he can find away to return to form here. It feels like there is some value on him as a slight favorite. Michel Pereira by Round Two KO
Jacobe Smith -323 vs Josiah Harrell +260
- Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Josiah Harrell and Jacobe Smith. This matchup came together last week on short notice with Harrell replacing the injured Seok Hyeon Ko. This is the UFC debut for Harrell who is 11-0 as a professional just like Smith. Harrell’s wins thus far have been impressive stoppages although the level of competition that he is facing seems to be no good. I think both athletes in this fight are green with a lot of potential to move forward, climbing the division ranks. However, Smith certainly seems a few steps ahead of Harrell when it comes to his training and preparation. Smith really is a highly touted prospect who has immense power but also very solid wrestling. He is in peak shape entering this matchup while Harrell is fighting with far less time to prepare. I am expecting this to be a great fight with Harrell bringing a fast pace to matchup against Smith early on. Harrell is comfortable engaging with opponents on the mat but he does tend to start out fights by attempting to brawl. Smith will likely be the fighter here initiating takedowns and weaning on Harrell by using his grappling. An upset in this fight would not surprise me in the slightest, I just figure Harrell to be outmatched without enjoying a full fight camp to prepare. I expect Harrell to gas out and succumb to finish here before round three. Smith also has a bit of a suspect gas tank so I would not rely on him when building parlays or betting on this fight card. Jacobe Smith by Round Two KO
- Nick: Jacobe Smith is 11-0 professionally, with eight of those wins coming via KO. Smith fights out of a solid camp via Fortis MMA, and at 30-years old he’s entering his athletic prime. While most of his wins have come via KO, Smith is an All-American D-1 wrestler who had found his initial success at Oklahoma State University. He’s shown solid cardio and durability and he does a good job transitioning between his striking and grappling. He enters this fight off a solid win via submission over Niko Price. Josiah Harrell will be making his UFC debut here with an 11-0 professional record at 27 years old. Harrell was scheduled to make his UFC debut in 2023, but a pre-fight health screening revealed a rare brain disease/condition that forced him into surgery and out of competition. Harrell made his return to competition in 2025, and he has since put together a solid three fight win streak on the regional scene. Harrell is relatively well-rounded with dangerous BJJ and decent power on the feet. As impressive as he’s been, this fight does represent a major step up in competition for him here and he’s notably taking this fight on just over a weeks’ notice. Smith’s cardio is of some concern, but he’s the rightful favorite here with Harrell taking this fight on short notice. This should play out closer than the line suggests, but Smith is the side. Jacobe Smith by Decision
Ante Delija -150 vs Serghei Spivac +125
- Anthony: The odds on this matchup have remained close for good reason as these two volatile heavyweights clash. Spivac is always difficult to predict although his gameplan is often consistent. Spivac would like to implement his grappling in each fight, normally shooting at least once in the first round to secure top position. While Spivac may be able to wrap up Delija early I do not think it will be easy to finish him with a submission of any kind. Delija was even viewed as a durable fighter prior to his recent knockout loss. He is a more steady presence in the cage, moving forward and constantly looking to hurt his opponents. Delija does well mixing in grappling as needed and this fight will put his takedown defense to the test. I expect him to land double or triple the significant strikes by Spivac. Delija is a slow moving heavyweight but Spivac cannot take advantage of that with his own hands at all. Both men are a threat to finish this fight but I believe the knockout is much more likely than the submission. Ante Delija by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ante Delija boasts a 26-6 record at 35 years old. Delija is best known for a lengthy career in the PFL, where he captured the 2022 Heavyweight World Championship. Delija is dangerous everywhere,with an extensive background in both wrestling and Sambo. While he telegraphs many of his strikes and he’s somewhat small for the division, he carries one shot KO power and his durability allows him to find success in extended exchanges. He is 1-1 in the UFC, but he does seem to be a fighter with upside in a very shallow heavyweight division. Sergey Spivak is 30 years old and 17-6 professionally. He has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times, which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivak averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. He struggles against other heavyweights that can grapple, but he’s found a lot of success against primary strikers and he’s one of the more underrated fighters overall within the division. Spivac will be very live for the upset if he can take this fight to the mat. That being said, I expect he struggles against Delija’s pressure early. Ante Delija by Round One KO
Melquizael Costa -220 vs Dan Ige +180
- Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa. It is a great matchup to test Costa inside of the rankings after he just strung together a streak of five wins in a row. Ige is known for always delivering bonus worthy performances and now he matches up against Costa. In his two most recent appearances Costa earned honors for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night when he stopped Morgan Charriere. Costa is dangerous with his kicks just as much as his hands. He is becoming a consistent threat in the cage, remaining poised throughout his fights and challenging opponents to work very hard. Ige is a bit more composed when comparing his striking style to that of Costa but both guys crack hard and put together good combinations behind their jabs. I expect Ige will be chasing the knockout here per usual, landing counters and allowing Costa to walk into his traps. Costa will be the busier athlete throughout this fight, landing higher volume than Ige and winning minutes in the clinch. The Brazilian is a solid jiu jitsu practitioner and here facing Ige he should have a clear advantage with his wrestling. I will be interested to see the extent to which Costa does grapple in this fight. It would not surprise me to see either emerge victorious here as this will likely be a matchup that goes to the judges decision. While neither side seems worth betting here at even money I do slightly favor Costa to extend his winning streak. Melquizael Costa by Decision
- Nick: Melquizael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he does leave a lot of openings to be countered. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He is 25-7 professionally, coming off five impressive wins and carrying a lot of momentum into this match-up. It seems all facets of his game are improving at a rapid pace, and he’s currently one of the most active fighters on the entire roster. Dan Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but he’s also comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He has surprising KO power for his frame, and it seems he only loses fights to the absolute best featherweights in the world. If Ige is at his best, he’s very live for the upset here as the more proven fighter in this match-up. That being said, Costa has been rapidly improving and it feels like the UFC is behind him jumping into contention. Ige is the better striker here, but he’s going to be outsized and Costa is the better grappler. I don’t like the price, but I do like the favorite. Melquizael Costa by Decision
Geoff Neal -220 vs Uros Medic +180
- Anthony: In the co-main event will be welterweights Uros Medic and Geoff Neal. We are in for a treat here with two elite strikers going head to head. Medic has had his full kickboxing on display lately and won in both recent fights. He has scored knockout victories in back to back appearances fighting for just one minute in each. Medic has real power in his hands and it will be interesting to see if Neal can survive that early blitz against him. The veteran has fought many athletes like this before but he is also now 35 years old and starting to show signs of his age. Neal is a bit of a slow starter and Medic will certainly be in control of this fight for round one. However, Neal is also in improved shape lately. His fight camp was here in Texas training with Sayif Saud and his team at Fortis MMA. Neal is thrilled to be matching up against another striker but I do not think he will be so happy after eating some clean shots. Medic seems very live for this upset and I will bet on him winning here quickly. Neal’s solid defense and boxing skills may allow him to take over this fight late but I expect Medic to also be able to find his chin and score yet another knockout victory. Uros Medic by Round One KO
- Nick: Geoff Neal fights out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA. He is a powerful striker who is extremely advanced in terms of his technical ability. The one major knock on him is that he’s tentative at times. He doesn’t always put out consistent volume so he sometimes ends up falling behind in his fights if he can’t find an early finish. He’s one of the better offensive strikers in the division, especially at close range. Defensively he has solid technical awareness, but he can look rigid at times and it does seem he’s slowing down a bit as his career wears on. Uros Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition, but against higher level opponents he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. These are too potent finishers, but Neal has the better footwork and he’s more defensively sound. There is volatility here, but Neal has proven success against a much higher level of opponent. He’s the side. Geoff Neal by Round One KO
Alexander Hernandez -280 vs Sean Strickland +220
- Anthony: The main event is a fight at middleweight between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez. This could be the matchup separating Hernandez from his first title shot after winning eight straight UFC appearances. Fluffy Hernandez has made this winning streak easy by completely smothering opponents with his pressure and crazy pace. Hernandez moves forward from the opening bell. It is going to be interesting to see both him and Strickland eager to move forward and start exchanges in this fight. Strickland is the better boxer with more polished technique and power. However, Hernandez lands punches in combination of double-digits and normally parlays those boxing entries into attempts at the takedown. Both men are cardio machines but the plan for Hernandez is simple wear out Strickland by landing as many takedowns as it takes. This is a favorable stylistic matchup for Hernandez and yet it is still very difficult to warrant his price as this wide a betting favorite. I think it will be difficult for either man to score a stoppage victory here. Strickland will not succumb to tiring out against Hernandez and I could even see him taking the championship rounds by still landing clean strikes here late. I anticipate this will be a very fun matchup to watch with high pace and scrambles back to the feet constantly. Alexander Hernandez by Decision
- Nick: Anthony Hernandez’s submission ability is certainly his greatest strength, but he’s also competent on the feet with three professional wins via KO. Hernandez should be able to hang on the feet here, but his clearest path to victory will be to take this fight to the mat as nine of his fifteen professional wins have come via submission. He is coming off eight consecutive wins under the UFC banner, and he’s quickly establishing himself as a contender to take seriously at middleweight. Sean Strickland, a former Middleweight Champion, has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. The line feels a bit wide here as Strickland is the better striker in this match-up with the more impressive resume. That being said, Hernandez’s grappling ability and his momentum should not be understated. Strickland has made a career of wearing his opponents down, but Hernandez has exceptional cardio. Strickland has been out of action for a long time, and he did not look great his last two times out against Du Plessis and Costa. I see Hernandez eventually getting this fight to the mat where he should be able to dictate how things go from there. Anthony Hernandez by Round Five Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com