UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane Full Card Analysis

10.25.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane. Fights are broadcast live from Abu Dhabi on Saturday afternoon with the world heavyweight championship up for grabs. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 270-155-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 270-155-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-24-2025 at 2pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 10:00am EST

Jaqueline Amorim -400 vs Mizuki Inoue +300

Anthony: The event begins at women’s strawweight with this fight between Mizuki Inoue and Jaqueline Amorim. This is just the second fight for Inoue in the previous five years. Inoue made a return from injury hiatus last fighting against Hannah Goldy in 2023. She now steps back into the octagon another two years later ready to compete once again. Inoue is being overlooked here by bettors largely due to this inactivity. Inoue is still just 31 years old but it seems her prime fighting years have surpassed her. I do not expect Inoue to find much sustained success here facing the surging Amorim. The Brazilian is a second degree blackbelt in jiu jitsu and former IBJJF competitor. Amorim has also finished four straight fights with three consecutive victories via submission. Inoue is primarily a striker and I expect her to struggle on the defensive throughout this fight. Amorim is strong for this weight class and good at securing her opponent’s positions on the mat. Although Inoue has never been stopped in a fight before I think she will be forced to defend several deep submission attempts in this matchup against Amorim today. Jaqueline Amorim by Decision
Nick: Jaqueline Amorim is 10-1 professionally, coming off an impressive win via submission over Polyana Viana. As a former LFA Strawweight Champion Amorim is fairly well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her offensive grappling ability. Eight of her ten professional wins have come via submission. She’s excellent on the mat, but she’s small for the division. Her wrestling entries leave a lot to be desired and while her striking has continued to improve, it’s still far from a strength for her at the UFC level. Mizuki Inoue has been out of action since she secured a win over Hannah Goldy back in September of 2023. She is 15-6 professionally, 3-2 in the UFC, and prior to her recent hiatus she had been showing considerable improvements in each of her fights. Inoue fights out of an excellent camp via Serra-Longo MMA in New York. The long time away from the UFC is a bit of a concern, but she’s still young for the division so it seems likely she used that time to elevate her game. The line here is far too wide, especially when you consider the fact that Amorim really only has one path to victory. That being said, I feel like she’s able to execute it here. Inoue’s takedown defense is decent, but I’m not confident in her ability to keep this fight off the mat. On the ground, Amorim does have the skills to find a finish early here. If she doesn’t, Inoue will be very live to pull off the upset here as this fight wears on. Jaqueline Amorim by Round One Submission

Azat Maksum -500 vs Mitch Raposo +375

Anthony: Next is a bout at flyweight between Azat Maksum and Mitch Raposo. It was disappointing to see Maksum miss weight for this contest as he is more than three pounds heavy. The advantage of weight could play a factor here in a fight between 125ers, especially since Raposo sacrifices his power and cardio to make the limit in this class. I think Raposo is draining himself too much to compete at flyweight. He has not done well effectively grappling against opponents or utilizing his wrestling as often as he could. Maksum is going to have the size advantage here and I do not think he will struggle when forced to defend any Raposo takedowns. Maksum is confident in his own grappling skills but better when his fights take place on the feet. Maksum throws with rather consistent volume and much more power than a guy like Raposo. He should do well landing kicks throughout this fight and largely controlling the exchanges we see on the feet. Raposo has solid overall boxing skills but his striking defense does leave a lot to be desired. This will likely be a fight that goes to the scorecards with neither athlete fading much in round number three. Maksum should be able to hold here as the betting favorite. Azat Maksum by Decision
Nick: Azat Maksum makes his return to action here, off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Tagir Ulanbekov. He is 15-2 professionally, with most of those wins coming for respectable regional promotions via Octagon and Brave CF. He’s 30-years old, entering his athletic prime, and his skills are already developed both on the mat and on the feet. He has five wins via KO and six via submission. Mitch Raposo is 9-3 professionally, coming off a decision loss to Sumudaerji in a fight that took place back at UFC 314. He’s relatively well-rounded, with most of his professional success coming on the feet. Each of his last three wins have come via KO, but he is 0-2 in the UFC and likely fighting for his job here. Raposo mostly fights off the back foot, which has cost him in a major way since he broke into the UFC. Maksum missed weight for this fight, which should only play into his physical advantages here. Maksum is on a two fight losing streak, but each of those losses came in competitive fights against opponents at a much lower level than he’ll be seeing here. Raposo is relatively well-rounded, but he’s likely to be outclassed here no matter where this fight goes. Azat Maksum by Decision

Hamdy Abdelwahab -500 vs Chris Barnett +375

Anthony: This will be a fun matchup at heavyweight between Chris Barnett and Hamdy Abdelwahab. Barnett now approaches the age of 40 and it seems that there are very few winnable fights for him remaining in the UFC. This division has always been rather thin but these are two very low-level athletes competing here today on a card headlined by the world heavyweight championship. Barnett will often struggle against opponents due to his size and defensive skillset. Barnett is normally much shorter than his opponents but today he does size up against Abdelwahab rather well. The Egyptian will be much stronger than Barnett when grappling and I am sure we will see a few takedowns converted here. However, Abdelwahab is not much more than a wrestler and his boxing does not seem to be the most technically sound. Barnett has lost fights lately because he is caught shelling up and eating too many big shots in succession. Abdelwahab is unlikely to unload many strikes here against Barnett which gives Beast Boy more opportunity to land an offense of his own. Barnett has a great base in taekwondo and 18 career wins by knockout. I have no confidence betting on Abdelwahab here as a massive favorite. It will be a back and forth scrap between these two and as a fan I am rooting for the underdog. Hamdy Abdelwahab by Round Three KO
Nick: This is a low level heavyweight match-up, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Hamdy Abdelwahab was an olympic-level wrestler for Egypt, but Egypt is anything but a wrestling powerhouse. He throws powerful hooks on the feet, but they are entirely telegraphed. He mostly strikes as a means to create openings for takedowns. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to Mohammad Usman back in June. He’s decent everywhere, but he has a small frame for the division and almost all of his fights at or near the UFC level have played out extremely close. Chris Barnett throws more spinning attacks and high kicks than we usually see from a Heavyweight. He’s only 5’9”, so in all actuality he should be fighting at a much lower weight class. Barnett is 23-9 professionally, but most of his wins have come against a relatively low level of opponent. He has been out of action since October of 2024, and he has only fought once in the past three years. The line is far too wide here given the low level nature of this match-up. Adelwahab shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against anyone. That being said, I do still see him as the side. Barnett is inactive and he lacks defensive grappling ability. I’m concerned about Adelwahab’s cardio, but Barnett has similar issues. The favorite should be able to work for a finish here once this fight hits the mat. Hamdy Abdelwahab by Round Two KO

Jose Delgado -150 vs Nathaniel Wood +125

Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Jose Delgado and Nathaniel Wood. Delgado was unfortunately one pound over the limit at weigh-ins on Friday. This is a big and powerful striker for featherweight, boasting great finishing instincts and knockout wins in both previous fights. Delgado has actually won seven consecutive bouts via finish. He trains at The MMA Lab and has developed really great kickboxing skills, attacking from both stances and committing to his power shots very early on. Wood presents a great test to see exactly where Delgado stands as a prospect. Wood is 9-3 competing in the UFC and coming off consecutive victories of his own. While Wood does have a good frame for this division it allows him to land shots at high volume but with little power behind them. Delgado is likely to win this fight in the first ten minutes while Wood should be favored the later that it goes. Wood has proven to be very tough to finish and if he does not get stopped early, Wood will consistently chip away throughout this fight and perhaps outclass his young opponent. We have seen Wood do very well winning fights before thanks to his low leg kicks and timely attacks to close out rounds. It will be a challenge for Delago to score another win by stoppage here but I think he has the firepower to at least hurt Wood early. I am hopeful that he scores at least one knockdown today. Jose Delgado by Decision
Nick: Jose Delgado is 27 years-old and 10-1 professionally, coming off impressive KO wins over Hyder Amil and Connor Matthews. He’s well rounded, fighting out of an excellent camp via MMA Lab in Arizona. Delgado is an explosive striker who fights at a torrid pace. He’s extremely aggressive, which can make him vulnerable to counters. Additionally, his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a risky fighter to back as a favorite if he can’t finish his opponent quickly. He has a dangerous BJJ game if he finds himself on the mat, but it’s rare we see him aggressively chase takedowns. Nathaniel Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He forces a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best, he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. This fight should be extremely competitive, and it is notable Delgado missed weight by two pounds. I slightly prefer the Wood side as the more experienced and the better technical fighter in this matchup. That being said, Wood is the more potent finisher. The size discrepancy is a bit of a concern as well, but I’m fine taking a shot on the underdog. Nathaniel Wood by Decision

Valter Walker -400 vs Louie Sutherland +300

Anthony: This is another fight at heavyweight now between Louie Sutherland and Valter Walker. The matchup here comes together on rather short notice after Walker had a fight cancelled against Mohammad Usman two weeks ago. Sutherland now draws in to face Walker here making his debut. This should be an interesting clash of styles between the striker and grappler. Walker has really impressed by winning three straight previous appearances via heel hook. I love to see him confidently giving away top position to instead pursue submissions that he can complete. At heavyweight there are not many that can combat his great jiu jitsu skills. Pulling to guard is reckless and can cause issues against elite fighters but Sutherland will not pose a threat to Walker even if he is in top position. While his striking is considered a weakness, Walker is getting much better when throwing and I actually think he poses a threat to Sutherland today with his hands. While Walker cannot land clean combinations like Sutherland, he can certainly place single shots and use strikes to set up his takedowns. Walker will probably shoot for a double-leg takedown early on and secure it to take round one. He can always make his fights ugly if he needs to, grinding on opponents and holding clinch positions in order to burn minutes and win. I am very confidently taking Walker to earn the victory here today. I would expect to see at least one more heel hook attempted by Walker in round one. Valter Walker by Round One Submission
Nick: Valter Walker is the younger brother of popular light heavyweight and roster main-stay, Johnny Walker. He is 14-1 professionally, most recently securing a quick win via submission of Kennedy Nzechuhkwu. Walker has a massive frame and an 81” reach, but he is primarily a grappler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat and finishing them via ground-and-pound or submission. At 27-years old he’s young for the division, but he’ll need to improve his striking if he has hopes of breaking into the rankings. He has won each of his last three fights via heel hook, and he’s likely going to pursue that same submission here against a relatively unproven opponent in Louie Sutherland. Louie Sutherland will be making his UFC debut here, with a 10-3 professional record at 31 years-old. Primarily a striker, eight of Sutherland’s ten professional wins have come via KO. Sutherland fights out of Scotland, having spent most of his career fighting for Levels Fight League. While his level of competition there leaves a lot to be desired, he has also fought for notable promotions via PFL and Bellator. Sutherland will be live for the upset if he can extend this fight, but I expect Walker can end it early. He’s the bigger fighter with the far superior grappling in this match-up. That should be enough on short notice. Valter Walker by Round One Submission

Ludovit Klein -130 vs Mateusz Rebecki +110

Anthony: Next is a great matchup at lightweight between Ludovit Klein and Mateusz Rebecki. This should be a battle between high-level opponents just outside the division rankings. Rebecki earned honors for Fight of the Night in each of his previous two appearances. Last October in this same arena Rebecki emerged victorious from a bloody war facing Myktybek Orolbai. He is a very high-pressure fighter but Rebecki also eats a lot of damage moving forward and making every fight into a brawl. Klein is a very skilled kickboxer who has great patience and potent finishing skills. Klein prefers to compete with opponents at striking range, letting go with his powerful kicks and setting up finishing combinations. Rebecki’s aggressive boxing and muay thai will cause Klein to work very hard throughout this fight. Rebecki’s poor defense may get him into trouble but he also could cause Klein to break given his relentless pace and striking volume. I do think round one will see Klein winning early exchanges and landing clean. Rebecki can also wear on Klein along the fence and challenge him to defend takedowns here. I think the odds are right where they need to be for this matchup as Klein is just slightly favored. I will back the more technically skilled fighter in this bout although it would not surprise me to see a gritty opponent like Rebecki take this win. Ludovit Klein by Decision
Nick: Ludovit Klein is well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He has a solid grappling base, and the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponents into powerful shots, and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, but there is no denying he’s most content to stand and exchange on the feet. Klein was on a four fight win-streak before falling to Mateusz Gamrot his last time out via decision. Mateusz Rebecki is 20-3 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss which came in a war against Chris Duncan back in August. Rebecki is a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. All that being said, he’s going to struggle to find consistent success at this level if he can’t conserve enough energy to stay effective until the scorecards. Additionally, he seems more hittable in exchanges than he did in his debut. This fight should be competitive and an extremely fun watch. I find myself favoring Rebecki here as the superior grappler with the better durability. A low confidence play, but I’m siding with the underdog. Mateusz Rebecki by Decision

Ikram Aliskerov -220 vs Jun Yong Park +180

Anthony: The next matchup is a middleweight fight between Jun Yong Park and Ikram Aliskerov. It appears that this is a clash of styles between striker and grappler although both men are very well-rounded athletes. Park does his best work employing heavy pressure and dragging a lot of opponents down to the mat. He has scored multiple takedowns in each of his previous two wins. Park himself was also taken down eleven times in a loss to Andre Muniz. I think Aliskerov is going to have the grappling credentials to keep Park in bottom position throughout these scrambles. Aliskerov is a Combat Sambo champion and International Master of Sport. Aliskerov uses his sambo to great effect in the octagon and I expect he will have the strength to reverse Park’s entries. Aliskerov is also the stronger and faster striker. He will have a decisive advantage against Park during these striking exchanges. While Park does well eating his shots and moving forward he does not pose a huge finishing threat with his hands. Aliskerov seems like the warranted favorite in this spot and I am going to betting on him with confidence. Park has lost by finish in five of his six professional losses. Ikram Aliskerov by Round Two KO
Nick: Ikram Aliskerov is 16-2 professionally, with his only losses coming to Khamzat Chimaev back in 2019 and Robert Whittaker in June of 2024. He’s primarily a grappler but often described as well-rounded, with five wins coming via submission and seven coming via KO. He carries decent power on the feet, but his striking is far from technical as he throws mostly hooks and chases knockouts without much concern for defense. He’s one of the better wrestlers in the division, but he seems to prefer to stand and trade as a means to conserve cardio. Jun Yong Park is somewhat slow and plodding on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. He is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded as he averages more than two successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s mostly known for his durability, but he does sometimes leave himself open to be countered in exchanges. He has won six of his last seven fights, most recently securing a decision win over Ismail Naurdiev. The line is too wide here, but I do expect Aliskerov is the rightful favorite. He’s the better technical striker, and I expect he can lean on his grappling if he’s not finding success on the feet. Park will become increasingly dangerous as this fight wears on, but I’m not confident in his ability to push it there. Ikram Aliskerov by Round Two KO

Quillan Salkilld -110 vs Nasrat Haqparast -110

Anthony: The featured fight is a bout at lightweight between Quillan Salkilld and Nasrat Haqparast. We should be in for a healthy scrap here between fighters who both enter on winning streaks. Salkilld has looked great in his two performances thus far in the UFC but the competition has not been high quality. Haqparast is a step-up in opponent for Salkilld as he begins to try climbing up the ranks. The 25-year-old does seem like a solid prospect fighting out of Australia. He is an aggressive grappler but I will also highlight Salkilld’s ability to kickbox. He does well trading in the pocket and landing the low calf kick against his foes. Haqparast has the tighter boxing and much faster hands overall. He has defended 84 percent of opponent takedowns and generally punishes the guys who shoot in recklessly on his legs. Bettors made a move on Haqparast right when these odds were posted but I think that Salkilld is in a good position to score throughout this fight. Haqparast is a popular public bet here but it makes sense given the matchup and location. Haqparast may be the better side because of biased judging here in Abu Dhabi. This fight is very likely going to go to decision. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision
Nick: Nasrat Haqparast is a technical striker who fights well at range. He lands more than 6 significant strikes per minute and he defends more than 63% of the strikes thrown against him. He was once regarded as a top prospect at 155, but it has taken him some time to build momentum in a crowded division. He comes into this match-up off of five impressive wins over quality competition, but stylistically he’s in a tough spot here against another talented up-and-comer. Salkild is just 25-years old, and 9-1 professionally, having not lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2021. Salkild is relatively well-rounded with three professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He fights at a torrid pace and he’s shown to have excellent cardio, having won a five-round fight regionally for the Eternal MMA Lightweight Championship in 2023. He is 2-0 in the UFC, and while his skills aren’t entirely developed he does seem to be a fighter with a high ceiling and a prospect to keep an eye on moving forward. Salkilld will be dangerous whenever this fight hits the mat, but Haqparast does seem to be a level above him in general. He’s the much better striker with far superior footwork, and his defensive grappling has come a long way over his last few fights. I’m siding with Haqparast here in a fight I expect he’ll mostly manage to keep standing. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision

Main Card- Starts 2:00pm EST

Azamat Murzakanov -110 vs Aleksandar Rakic -110

Anthony: The main card opens at light heavyweight with this matchup between Azamat Murzakanov and Aleksandar Rakic. Murzkanov is still undefeated, 15-0 with an impressive resume full of knockouts. The Professional is a dangerous knockout artist that is surging up the division rankings and likely to continue to find a lot of success in the coming years. I have made a lot of money backing Murzakanov at short odds like this but this matchup is much more difficult. Recently Murzakanov has looked good while facing mediocre competition. Rakic represents a significant step-up in competition given his tenure amongst the elite at this weight class. Rakic is much taller than Murzkanov with a 6.5” edge in reach. While Rakic is currently on a three-fight losing streak he continues to fight well and produce competitive exchanges. Murzakanov will be trying to land one nuke against Rakic while the Serbian fighter picks away at him with solid strikes from the outside. Rakic does well engaging with his kicks and hitting opponents with powerful combinations. He also should have a slight advantage in this fight if he needs to shoot and score a takedown against Murzakanov. I am picking Rakic to earn the victory here tonight but I don’t trust his chin enough to take him at the betting window. I do not like wagering against undefeated Russians, especially when they are competing in this corner of the world. Aleksandar Rakic by Decision
Nick: Azamat Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s certainly capable of winning fights on the feet, but his most dominant performances seem to come when he’s able to mix in his wrestling. Murzakanov enters this match-up undefeated, with an excellent 15-0 record and four wins under the UFC banner. He’s getting up there in age and he’s been somewhat inactive, but there is no denying his overall skill. Aleksandar Rakic is a highly technical boxer with ridiculous athleticism and explosiveness. He is athletic for the division, but he sometimes overextends and gets caught in exchanges. At times it seems he’s overcautious as he waits for fights to come to him. He comes into this fight on a three fight losing streak, but each of those losses came against former champions of the division. This is a low confidence play, but I find myself backing Rakic in this match-up. His leg kicks should prove effective against Murzakanov’s square striking stance. Additionally, he’s going to be the much bigger and more athletic fighter in this matchup. Aleksandar Rakic by Decision

Jailton Almeida -200 vs Alexander Volkov +160

Anthony: Next is a heavyweight matchup between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida. This is a very clear stylistic clash between elite striker and grappler. Volkov should be upset about getting this opponent, especially after losing his last fight by robbery. Pundits agree that Volkov deserved to earn the split decision victory when facing Ciryl Gane last at UFC 310. Volkov landed 105 strikes compared to 48 for Gane. The Russian is clearly in the title picture and likely next to fight for the belt with a win today. Almeida’s strength and jiu jitsu skills will at the very least allow him to control the early portion of this fight. Almeida had the best grappling in this division and a legitimate claim to also compete for gold next year as well. I think he will win round one while hunting for an early submission against Volkov. Volkov certainly has the ability to toss around and reverse big heavyweights, but Almeida is very much a legitimate blackbelt. He is quicker and more powerful than Volkov but also great at finishing the takedowns that he attempts. I expect Almeida to start this fight with an immediate takedown after testing the waters with a few early kicks. Volkov’s gameplan involves surviving early and then putting a beating on Almeida here late. He has always been tough to finish and resilient in the face of adversity. Volkov is also 25 pounds heavier. Still, I think Almeida is more than likely going to do what he needs to in order to win this bout. He could end up spending ten minutes on top of Volkov if he cannot find himself a finish. Jailton Almeida by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jailton Almeida is extremely explosive and athletic for a heavyweight. He has solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well and works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, he has a massive frame, and his grappling has come a long way since he made his UFC debut. He has won four of his last five fights, with the only loss coming against Ciyrl Gane his last time out in a fight many thought he was robbed on the scorecards. Almeida is the rightful favorite here given his clear path to victory on the mat. That being said, I do expect Volkov can work back to his feet if he is taken down and then weaponize his cardio from there. Nothing would surprise me in this one, but I find myself siding with the underdog. I expect he can use his length to land the strikes he needs to stay safe until Almeida starts to fade. I also like that his understanding of footwork can make him difficult to find. Alexander Volkov by Round Three KO

Umar Nurmagomedov -700 vs Mario Bautista +475

Anthony: The featured bout is at bantamweight between Mario Bautista and Umar Nurmagomedov. Perhaps the fighter getting most attention here at Etihad Arena is Nurmagomedov who looks to bounce back from his first career loss today. While Nurmagomedov did have a close fight with the champion Merab Dvalishvili, it was clear he is not conditioned to brawl that hard for five hard rounds. In this matchup Nurmagomedov will be able to use his offensive strikes to better effect, not constantly worries about defending relentless takedown attempts. Bautista is confident in all areas but at a clear disadvantage standing and trading with Nurmagomedov. Umar has excellent kicks and great speed even for a bantamweight. Bautista will be forced to react too much standing and I expect him to attempt to wrestle more here. Nurmagomedov is known as a fantastic grappler but Merab was able to expose some issues that he faces when put onto the ground. Baustita should not be overlooked, always crafting a solid gameplan and fighting tactically. This is a fighter on an eight-fight winning streak and in a three round fight there is great value on Bautista here as a betting underdog. Dvalishvili was able to score multiple takedowns against Umar and I think Bautista will be able to convert at least one attempt. Nurmagomedov would more appropriately be lined at -300 odds. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Nick: Mario Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. In this particular match-up it seems he’s likely going to try to keep things standing. Umar Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this match-up, as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a protege/cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s 18-1, coming off the first loss of his career which came via decision in a title fight against current champion Merab Dvalishvili. Numagomedov is a creative striker with excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks. He’s an excellent wrestler as well, but he has found a lot of success on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. The line here is ridiculous given the skill and athleticism of Bautista. That being said, Nurmagomedov is the side. He should be able to impose his grappling in this match-up. Also, in a three round fight his cardio really shouldn’t be an issue. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Mackenzie Dern -150 vs Virna Jandiroba +125

Anthony: The co-main event is the women’s strawweight championship fought between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Zhang Weili has vacated her title here to challenge for flyweight gold and now these two top contenders will meet in a rematch of their fight from UFC 256. The first meeting between these two was primarily fought standing whereas here we have a five round contest that will likely feature more exchanges on the ground. Jandiroba scored her only takedown of the fight after breaking Dern’s nose in the middle of round two. I scored the third round of the fight for Jandiroba but Dern emerged victorious on the scorecards. Jandiroba has seemingly leveled up since then, scoring five straight wins with a takedown secured in each of those bouts. Her wrestling has improved tremendously and she is more aggressive at chasing control and dominant positions. Dern has never been submitted through her 20 professional fights. She is an elite level blackbelt and very few have found success facing her on the ground. I am expecting Jandiroba to really challenge Dern in high-leverage grappling situations today, both rolling for armbars and any submission attempts to finish this fight. Dern’s striking has come a long way since the first meeting but she still poses little threat to ever win with her hands. Jandiroba should be able to take the best shots from Dern here while continuing to move forward. Perhaps the better rounds for Dern would come late if she is able to tire out Jandiroba. The Brazilian is 37 years old and I could see her wasting energy in pursuit of a finish here. I also think she is skilled enough to find that finish and win this title. I am going to be betting Jandiroba as the underdog in what will be a very competitive title match. And New. Virna Jandiroba by Round Three Submission
Nick: The fight is for the UFC Women’s Strawwright Championship as Weilli Zhang has vacated to move up to Flyweight. Mackenzie Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in all of MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion, and a brutal match-up for any opponent when her fights hit the mat. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over the years. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC. Virna Jandiroba is most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her general wrestling ability can leave a lot to be desired. Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. This match-up represents the rematch of a fight that took place back in 2020 in which Dern was able to secure the win via decision. Both of these women have greatly improved since that fight, but I feel the greater strides have come on the Dern side. Both of these women are gifted grapplers, but Dern carries more power on the feet and it seems she has the better cardio. In a five round fight, I expect she can do enough to once again secure a win in this match-up. Jandiroba is tough, but skill-for-skill I expect she’ll be slightly outmatched here. And New. Mackenzie Dern by Decision

Tom Aspinall -400 vs Ciryl Gane +300

Anthony: The main event decides the heavyweight world championship with Tom Aspinall defending his belt against Ciryl Gane. Aspinall has not competed in more than one year after beating Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304. Now the champion will direct his attention to this division full of contenders rather than chasing a massive fight against the retired Jon Jones. Aspinall has the best striking differential ever at heavyweight, landing 8.07 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing on average 2.89 in return. He is a very aggressive fighter who is confident in engaging opponents at close range. Aspinall has a very diverse arsenal of attacks, landing knees and elbows at opportune moments in each fight. He has legitimate knockout power and every win for Aspinall in his career has come inside of the distance. Gane is a very interesting test for Aspinall when looking at the options at heavyweight. This is the only athlete that can really challenge Tom’s speed and precision striking on the feet. Gane should do well moving his head and avoiding the early blitzes from Aspinall. I could even see Gane winning rounds in this fight if we were to get into the third, fourth and fifth. However, Gane still has a lot of grappling deficiencies and Aspinall is a champion that should be able to smother him on the ground. Normally Aspinall takes an aggressive approach to takedowns, charging forward and converting takedown attempts with perfect accuracy throughout his career. I trust Aspinall to win this fight using his hands but at any moment he can also duck underneath and drag Gane down to the ground. Aspinall should also be able to eat a lot of Gane’s best strikes as he is not necessarily known for his power. While Gane attempts to dance toward a victory here on points it will be Aspinall fighting aggressively and searching for another finish. I could end up betting on Gane here live if he does survive the first round. I think Aspinall is most likely going to win inside of the fight’s first ten minutes. And Still. Tom Aspinall by Round Two KO
Nick: Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. Ciryl Gane lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he absorbs just over 2. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit and his footwork is extremely advanced for someone his size. Gane is 13-2 professionally, with his only losses coming to champions Jon Jones and Frances Ngannou. The current champion,Tom Aspinall, is a surprisingly well-rounded heavyweight considering he only has sixteen total fights on his professional record. A former training partner of Tyson Fury, Aspinall has excellent footwork and head movement. He is a highly technical boxer with advanced ability both offensively and defensively. He has impressive speed for the division, and his ground game and BJJ are also well-above average for the division. He’s in the best shape of his short career, and he is widely regarded as the best heavyweight in the world in MMA. The line feels wide here as Gane is extremely skilled and heavyweight fights tend to be more volatile. That being said, Aspinall has a very clear path to victory here. Gane’s defensive grappling is still a major hole in his game. Things could get dicey if this fight is extended, but it seems most likely Aspinall can ground this fight and then find an early finish. Tom Aspinall by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com