Bill Belichick has already cemented his status as the greatest head coach of all time. He’s won 6 Super Bowl rings, has the third-most career wins, and sports an overall winning percentage of 62 percent. With such a decorated resume it almost hurts to say: when do we start wondering about his long-term future as a head coach?
The 2022 NFL season got dark for the Patriots, even as they won 8 games and narrowly missed out on the playoffs. There was more dysfunction than we’re used to seeing with this team, and some of Belichick’s decisions came back to haunt them. Namely allowing Matt Patricia to call offensive plays. Surely such a decision would backfire.
It did. The Patriots’ offense ranked 24th in DVOA and Mac Jones was benched midway through the season before being brought back in. The bar for improvement on the offensive side of things is low, but the defense – to Belichick’s credit – was one of the best in the league again, ranking third in EPA and third in DVOA. That comes as no shock, that’s where Belichick’s bread is buttered.
But 2023 will be a strange year. The offense is still in flux and for the first time in a while, the Patriots feel like the natural favourites to finish at the bottom of the AFC East. However, the East is a competitive division and things could easily shake out in the Patriots’ favour with some luck. But, it’d take a lot of luck.
Offense
The Mac Jones era in New England stalled in 2022. While Jones himself regressed in year 2, it would be harsh to say that he should shoulder the lionshare of the blame as to why the Patriots offense struggled. So much of Jones’ struggles stemmed from the play calling, as well as the offensive line’s ability to keep him upright. He’s not someone who moves around the pocket with great fluidity and his pressure to sack rate of 23.4 percent – eighth-highest in the NFL – meant that Jones’ inability to avoid sacks cost him.
A lack of a truly efficient run game likely hurt the offense’s floor too. Rhamondre Stevenson had a nice year, rushing for over 1,000 yards at over 5 yards per carry, but the Patriots as a whole ranked 21st in rush DVOA, averaging just 106.6 yards per game on the ground. Belichick has brought in a familiar face, Bill O’Brien, to help ignite the offense. O’Brien isn’t an exciting pick to be the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, but he’s someone who understands that side of the football and the Patriot way. At a minimum he’s likely to give Jones a boost, and that’s a step in the right direction.
The additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki give the Patriots a little more action in the receiving game as well – though Gesicki’s role might be neutralized by Smith-Schuster also playing most of his time in the slot. But a weapon is a weapon, and it’s clear the offense needed more of them around Mac Jones.
One to watch: Tyquan Thornton
Defense
Death, taxes, and the New England Patriots having a good defense. And 2022 was no exception. The defense did everything you’d want a good defense to do. They pressured the quarterback at a high rate (4th in the NFL), created the second-most turnovers, and allowed 20.4 points per game. All in all, they were one of the best units in the league, and those performances kept the Patriots alive for as long as they were.
The offseason was kind to the defense as well. They didn’t lose any notable players to free agency and re-signed Jonathan Jones and Jabril Peppers – two major contributors – to new deals. The Patriots were also big winners in the draft, adding Christian Gonzalez, who fell to the 17th overall pick despite potentially being the best cornerback available. Adding Keion White as well in the second round is a nice pick up as well. Both can be real contributors early on.
Coverage-wise, there’s little reason to think the Patriots will be changing any time soon. Belichick’s defensive ideology is deeply rooted in single-high safety looks. It’s about lending enough bodies to the box to defend the run but also having versatile players who can defend in man coverage. That’s why Gonzalez will fit into the defense so well. Plus, the pieces around him are still great to boot. Matt Judon is one of the better pass rushers in the NFL, and the rest of the secondary combined is one of the best in the league. Don’t expect the Patriots defense to fall off a cliff any time soon.
One to watch: Christian Gonzalez
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Alexander Jonesi.This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.