There are Super Bowl hangovers, then there are Super Bowl comas, which is what the Rams apparently experienced after winning it all. After climbing the mountain and beating the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl 55, the Rams looked poised to test the resolve of the rest of the league and go for an elusive back-to-back. One year later and we’re wondering who the Rams can be in 2023 and whether or not they can even be competitive – let alone contend for a championship.
The 2022 season was an anomaly. Everyone who was of some sort of importance for the Rams, except Jalen Ramsey, missed a large amount of time. Quarterback Matt Stafford played in just nine games, Aaron Donald played in eleven – the first time in his career that Donald had missed a significant chunk of the season – and Cooper Kupp played in nine games. In addition to losing three of their most important players, the Rams lost essentially every starting offensive lineman at some point in the season and were forced to grab Baker Mayfield off the street to play quarterback. Ultimately, all of that left the Rams in a tenuous spot with a 5-12 record.
It was the sort of chaos the Rams haven’t had to deal with in the Sean McVay era. And it showed. McVay, a coach known for being able to adjust to any scenario, looked flummoxed. Just like after the Super Bowl, there were rumours that McVay could take some time away from the game or become a TV analyst but, thankfully, he decided to stick around and run it back. That’s good for the game of football.
How the Rams approach the 2023 season will be interesting. They didn’t have the necessary quality draft picks or cap space to improve the roster much this offseason, but drafting Steve Avila in the second round will help bolster an offensive line that needs an injection of new blood. Byron Young – a third-round pick in 2023 – provides a similar addition on the defensive line. The theme for the Rams this season is just a lack of talent – something that was evident in 2022. However, they’ll have their key starters back…so is there hope?
Offense
The Rams’ offense, which has been one of the more consistent units under Sean McVay regardless of quarterback, was the product of a mountain of misfortune last season. Defending their Super Bowl title was always going to be a tough task, but losing your starting quarterback, most of your offensive line and depth, and a star receiver is multiple nails in the coffin. The Rams never stood a chance – they finished the season 29th in EPA and 23rd in DVOA as they shifted from Stafford to John Wolford, to Bryce Perkins to Baker Mayfield.
Reading the tea leaves around the team, it sounds like Stafford will be back and healthy for the 2023 campaign. If he’s anywhere as close to as good as he was in 2021 – or even just better than he was last season – then the Rams’ offense will be competitive. The Stafford and Kupp connection is one of the best in the league and was the driving force behind their Super Bowl success. At this point, health is the giant question mark – but the Rams do have the potential to be a top-10 offense. It’ll just take a lot to get there. The offensive line will be improved simply by default with Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen both returning from injuries. In turn, that could possibly improve a running game that hasn’t quite lived up to its potential in a post-Todd Gurley world.
The sky isn’t the limit in Los Angeles, because – like we’ll see with the defense – there’s a talent deficiency compared to most teams in the NFL. But McVay is still one of the best coaches in the league when it comes to scheming and game-planning. He’ll do his utmost to put Stafford and the offense in a better position than they were a season ago. Can he do it?
One to watch: Puka Nacua
Defense
How best to describe the Rams’ defense? Well, no offense to them, but how familiar are you with the likes of Russ Yeast, Derion Kendrick, Michael Hoecht, and Marquise Copeland? Not at all is the likely answer. The Rams still have Aaron Donald on defense, but the core that helped them win the Super Bowl is fading fast and the front office just doesn’t have the financial capacity or the draft capital to rebuild it right now. A large chunk of their depth on defense is filled up by undrafted free-agent rookies which could lead to disastrous results.
The continuity with Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator is a big plus, even if he doesn’t have the best talent to work with. The Rams were a cover-3-heavy defense last season, running it on 42.5 percent of their snaps, per PFF Ultimate, more than any other team in the NFL. Don’t anticipate those numbers changing much, as Morris likes to defend the run with an extra man in the box on early downs and trying to force opponents into third-and-long situations where he can rotate a safety in the box back into the secondary – creating a two-high shell to put a roof over the offense and limit big plays.
Structurally, the Rams and what they want to do is sound. But it’s just going to keep coming back to the lack of playmakers. The big factor is whether the Rams get pressure up front. They had the third-lowest pressure rate among all 32 NFL teams last season and while having Donald back for 17 games will help, they’ll need other defenders to contribute. Donald can’t do it alone. This defense could struggle.
One to watch: Byron Young
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.