We’ve officially entered the summer lull. Most of the cap space around the NHL has been eaten up, and the UFA list is looking thinner by the day. Which is why it’s the perfect time to dive into the Senators prospect pool and see who’s rising, who’s falling, and who’s knocking on the door of the NHL.
Instead of ranking them numerically, I’ll be ranking them by tiers. In each tier, names will be organized from the most defined player to the rawest. For some 18-year-olds that were just drafted a month ago, the journey is still a long and arduous one. Here are the tiers we’ll be using:
| Tier |
| Blue Chip Prospects (Elite NHL players) |
| Very Good (top six F, top four D, starting goalie) |
| Good (NHL player, middle of lineup, backup goalie) |
| Could be great (High ceiling, low floor) |
| Decent (Depth players, very bottom of lineup) |
| Fringe (NHL call up through up career) |
| Everyone else (not prospects, trending in wrong direction) |
Blue Chip Prospects: These are your for-sure, elite prospects that will do significant damage in the future. Think Tim Stutzle or Jake Sanderson when they were coming up through the ranks.
Very good: These will be players that play in the top half of the lineup, think Josh Norris and Drake Batherson several years ago.
Good: These are players that will have long NHL careers, who will be in the lineup every day. A player I’d put in this category: Shane Pinto
Could be great: This is my wildcard tier, where these players will either be very good NHL players or never manage to put it all together and fizzle out.
Decent: These are the players that will be third pair defensemen, fourth line players or 3rd string goalies that have some seasons in the NHL. Examples: Mark Kastelic, Mark Borowiecki, Marcus Hogberg.
Fringe: Fringe players might get some NHL action from year to year, but dominate most of their career in the AHL at the top of the lineup or get a quick call up if there’s an injury with the big club.
Everyone else: players that have aged out of the prospect development stage or could be on their way out of the organization.
Everyone else: Johnny Tychonick
While he (technically) is signed until August 15th, Tychonick has already signed an Amateur Tryout contract with the Toronto Marlies. Tychonick, a 2nd round pick in 2018, is far away from stepping foot in the NHL.
Fringe: Kevin Mandolese, Theo Wallberg, Tomas Hamara, Kevin Reidler, Matthew Adonovski
Kevin Mandolese:
Despite a short, but solid NHL stint this year, Mandolese still has a ways to go. His .893 save percentage through 43 AHL games is below average, albeit he’s been behind some middling B-Sens squads. He’ll be 23 this August, so there’s still some leeway to grow into an NHL goaltender one day. With Leevi Merilainen coming over from Finland, it will be interesting to see where Mandolese ends up. Be it as the starter in the ECHL or backup in the AHL.
Theo Wallberg:
Wallberg had a fine USHL debut after being selected in the 6th round of the 2022 draft, with 22 points in 60 games. He was never a superstar offensively, so these point totals aren’t altogether surprising. But the 19-year-old will need to improve his offensive game this upcoming season if he wants to step into the NHL one day. His 6-foot 5 frame will help him once playoffs come around, but he’ll have to round out the finer points of his game at Ohio State University if wants to one day become a full time NHL player.
Tomas Hamara:
What was initially lauded as a great pick in the 2022 draft, turned rather disappointing in short order. His offense dried up, with only 17 points in 56 OHL games, while also sporting a -21 rating. If you’re an offensive defenseman drafted in the 3rd round pick, you’re asking for at least double that production in your draft +1 year. Hamara isn’t trending in the right direction, and will need to put in the work this summer to reset for what will likely be his last season in the OHL.
Kevin Reidler:
I said it last summer and I’ll say it again. This might be the project of the Sens organization. But no pressure, because Reidler should have some leeway to work with over the next five years. A 5th round pick in the 2022 Draft, Reidler is a 6-foot 6 goaltender that was weeks away from eligibility for the 2023 draft. In his draft +1 year, Reidler fared well in the J-20 league over in Sweden. His .911 save percentage was 9th best in the league, and he was on a losing team in AIK. For reference, his backup finished the season with a .831 percentage in 14 games. Right now, it doesn’t seem like Reidler has a great chance at making the NHL, but this year will be a huge test for him. He’s coming over to North America to play for the Dubuque Fighting Saints of the USHL, so we’ll see how he fares in the North American game.
Matthew Adonovski:
When you see Hamara struggle, it’s interesting seeing the complete opposite in Adonovski who thrived this season on the same team. Adonovski was a +25 playing a top four role for Kitchener, which impressed scouts enough to be drafted this year. Now, he hasn’t scored an OHL goal yet, so that has some worried. But Adonovski is a force on the defensive side and isn’t afraid to throw his body around. I don’t think there’s ever a spot in the top four for him, but a #6 or #7 defenseman makes sense after spending multiple seasons in the AHL.
Decent: Lassi Thomson, Donovan Sebrango, Jorian Donovan, Filip Nordberg
Lassi Thomson:
Thomson may be an NHL defenseman one day, but I doubt that it will be with the Senators. He’ll require waivers this year, and I’m not sure a 23-year-old defenseman who shoots right will pass through 31 other teams. That said, we’ve had a decent sample size of Thomson’s game over the past few seasons. He’s received a couple callups, totalling 18 games and 5 assists with a -10 rating. While he was gaining momentum in 2021-22, he regressed slightly this season in both AHL and NHL. He looked overwhelmed in his first two NHL games and the AHL production didn’t increase. For a defenseman who is 6 feet tall and not known for stellar defensive play, I don’t see much more than a third pairing defenseman in his future.
Donovan Sebrango:
Even though he’s not the headliner in the DeBrincat trade, Sebrango is a good candidate to be a solid NHL player one day. The 21-year-old defenseman has plenty of AHL experience (135 games) which was caused because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now he was recently spending some time in the ECHL, which doesn’t look great on the surface. But the tools are there; he was a top four defenseman in the World Juniors in the summer of 2022. Despite being one of the older players on this list, he still remains a couple of years away
Filip Nordberg:
The 6-foot four defenseman had a decent season, but he deserves some consistency no matter what the league. He played in the J-20 league, the AllSvenskan and the SHL last year. Sometimes on multiple teams as well. He’s a defensively sound left shot defenseman who has an untapped offensive toolkit. He skates well and should increase his point totals if he gets more consistent opportunities. Out of anyone on this list, Nordberg might have the highest ceiling and develop into a second pair defenseman if all goes right.
Could be great: Mads Sogaard, Hoyt Stanley, Vladimir Nikitin
Mads Sogaard:
Sogaard’s pro career has been up and down. On one hand, he’s had great stints in the AHL and the NHL. He even earned a rookie of the month award this past February. But then there’s also games where he struggles mightily and appears to be fighting the puck even on routine shots. With that 6-foot 7 frame, there’s so much to like with a goaltender like this. Having said that, I don’t know if there’s a scenario where he’s a backup in the NHL for his career. He’ll either be a very good starter or a 3rd string that may play in the AHL or Europe. All that to say, Sogaard should spend the entire year in Belleville to get some consistency as the team’s starter on an improved B-Sens roster.
Hoyt Stanley:
As one of the rawest players on this list, Stanley is probably years away from touching NHL ice. But the tools are there, which combine for a very well-rounded defenseman with a 6-foot 3 frame. His 38 points in 53 BCHL games was 9th in defensive scoring league wide, including 1st in his age group. Add in the fact that he also shoots right, and the Senators might prioritize the development of their first pick from the 2023 draft. He’ll likely spend 3 seasons in the NCAA then turn pro, but things could change over time.
Vladimir Nikitin:
While he could have an extremely high ceiling, the ceiling doesn’t come close to Sogaard. The Kazakh goaltender wouldn’t be considered a hot commodity at the draft this year. But at the same time, Nikitin reminds me a lot of Leevi Merilainen who was drafted in 2020. A non-North American goaltender that was playing in an under-scouted league. We’ll see if he has what it takes to make the pros. He’s transitioning to the BCHL next year, which will be a step up from the Kazakh U-20 league. He’s a longshot, but he’ll either be unsigned in a couple of years or flash great potential.
Good: Maxence Guenette, Tyler Kleven, Leevi Merilainen
Maxence Guenette:
I am willing to bet that Maxence Guenette becomes an NHL defenseman one day. Since turning pro, Guenette has put up 59 points in 120 AHL games, which is similar to Lassi Thomson’s AHL production in his first three seasons. The only difference is Thomson was drafted in the 1st round and Guenette was taken in the 7th. Guenette is a two-way defenseman who slots in well on your powerplay and can see some time on the penalty kill as well. He’s the typical modern-day defenseman: one who can break the puck out with ease and has some size. If Guenette is developed properly (which he has been so far), then he has the potential to be a #5 or #4 defenseman that can quarterback the second power play unit. A player similar in terms of playing style is Damon Severson. I believe Guenette will become Belleville’s #1 defenseman this season, and will be on track to becoming an NHL defenseman in 2024-25.
Tyler Kleven:
The 2020 draft class continues. He was seen by some as a reach at #44 in the 2020 draft, but Kleven has won over much of the Sens fan base by now. He won’t wow you with high point totals, but his offensive game isn’t as raw as some originally thought. In his Junior season at North Dakota, he scored 18 points in 35 games. He signed his entry level contract with the Senators this spring, and looked much better than I thought. His physical game wasn’t as flashy as it could have been, but he was responsible with the puck and had better offensive instincts than most give him credit for.
Leevi Merilainen:
Merilainen hasn’t always been the most consistent prospect, but he’s been able to bounce back after cold streaks throughout his development process. When he was drafted in 2020, people had no idea who he was. A mysterious goaltender who put up very good stats in the Finnish junior leagues, but played mostly in the U-18 level instead of U-20. When he graduated to U-20 in 2020-21, he dominated with a .934 in 22 games. When he transferred to Kingston of the OHL in 2021-22, he had a tougher season. A .891 save percentage through 53 games landed him in the middle of the pack, but on a solid team with the Frontenacs. Then came this past season, where he went back to Finland to play in the Liiga where the toughest competition resided. Leevi not only played well, but stole highly touted prospect Joel Blomqvist’s starting job. His .918 save percentage in 42 games was fourth best across the entire league. His strong performance at the pro level put him in this category, giving me much more confidence in him becoming an NHL goaltender. His ceiling? I think it’s still out there, and he’s not even 21 yet.
Graduated:
Jacob Bernard-Docker
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: The AHL. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.