Some teams in the NFL are perennial success stories, while others manage to find new ways to get their hearts ripped out year in year out. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine which category the Los Angeles Chargers fall into.
The Chargers made good on the promise of getting a talented team into the playoffs – their first postseason appearance since 2018 – but the manner of defeat in the Wildcard round versus the Jacksonville Jaguars is, unfortunately, peak Charger-ing. For the unfamiliar, that is the verb to explain when a team just crumbles under the weight of its own pressure. Something the Chargers have a PHD in. Letting a 27-0 lead slip away is worthy of a trial in the Hague, but we mustn’t get off topic.
The likely aim for the Chargers in 2023 is to put themselves back into playoff and Super Bowl contention. From top to bottom, the roster is one of the strongest in the league, and there’s reason to believe they’re even stronger after this offseason. The addition of Quentin Johnston, maybe the receiver with the highest upside of any in the 2023 draft class, gives the offense an explosive element they were lacking. And bringing in Kellen Moore to replace Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator is a stroke of genius as well. Lombardi’s play calling stagnated the offense, while Moore could unlock it – allowing Justin Herbert to lean into his best traits.
Offense
As previously mentioned, the offense is in a position to take a major step forward in 2023. Herbert is one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, blessed with exceptional arm talent, super processing skills, and the ability to play off script. Anyone who refers to Herbert as a “social media quarterback” simply isn’t worth listening to.
The change in coordinator isn’t just ceremonial. Expect to see a more explosive offense in 2023. Herbert’s average depth of target in 2022 was one of the lowest in the NFL, and his air yards per attempt was 30th out of 31 qualifiable quarterbacks. Air yards per attempt aren’t entirely indicative of excellent quarterback play – but a low number for Herbert just doesn’t correlate to success. That’s not his game – he should be airing the ball out downfield and hitting receivers in their stride on nine and post routes. The hope, with Moore installed as OC, is that more of that is on the way.
The receiver room already had the likes of Mike Williams, a deep ball specialist who doesn’t necessarily separate, but can use his size to stack receivers, but adding Johnston gives the Chargers another receiver who can win deep downfield with his size. Meanwhile fourth-round pick Derius Davis is a pure burner with 4.36 speed. He might not be a day-one contributor, but he adds a wrinkle to this team it didn’t have previously.
One to watch: Quentin Johnston
Defense
The crux of the Chargers’ defense in 2022, and as it has been for the last several seasons, was the ability (or inability) to defend the run. They allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL last season and finished 28th in rush EPA per play. Not good.
The NFL is shifting further and further to passing on early downs, but defending the run is still a necessity. It requires discipline, gap control, and just plain old toughness. You could argue the Chargers defense was too soft in recent years.
Will they be again? The hope is no. The defensive line is running back the same core of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Sebastian Joseph-Day with depth around them. If all three are healthy, that’s a big if because Bosa only played in 5 games last season, then they’re in a position to improve. The edge duo is one of the best in the league and Joseph-Day is a people mover at nose tackle. Improve the run defense and the defense overall looks a lot better.
There are potential question marks around some of the spots in the secondary, even if this team was top-10 in EPA per play against the pass in 2022. The starting cornerback duo of Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. is solid – and Davis himself is one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL, especially from a man and press perspective. Derwin James is obviously Derwin James, he’s a top-3 safety in the NFL and a real jack-of-all-trades.
Looking through the depth chart, you’ll notice that this defense, much like the offense, has heaps of talent on it. If they can be even a middle-of-the-pack group against both the run and pass, good things will happen.
One to watch: Michael Davis
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.