UFC 289 Fight Predictions and Analysis

UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana – 6.10.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana. The UFC is back north of the border for an excellent event to decide the women’s bantamweight championship. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 121-94-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 138-77-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-9-2023 at 11pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 7:00pm EST

Diana Belbita -120 vs Maria Oliveira -105

Anthony: The card today opens with a scrap at women’s strawweight between Maria Oliveira and Diana Belbita. This should be a fun striking affair with both athletes looking to stand and exchange blows. Oliveira struggles when taken down in fights but I am doubtful we will see Belbita shoot today. Belbita is the more credentialed and polished striker though these two are rather evenly matched standing. Oliveira controls distance well and is a bit more snappy with her offensive combinations. Belbita will look to chop the legs of Oliveira and work a bit deeper inside of the pocket but this is likely to boil down to the judge’s preference of style. I see Oliveira getting her hand raised but this is not at all a confident pick. She has been the more active fighter as of late. Maria Oliveira by Decision
Nick: Oliveira is durable, but she absorbs more than five significant strikes per minute. She’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Vanessa Demopoulos, a fight in which she was dominated early but won the third round on all three judges’ scorecards. She is primarily a striker with seven of her thirteen professional wins coming via KO. She’s just 1-2 in the UFC, but this match-up with Belbita is arguably the easiest she’s faced since she signed with the promotion. Diana Belbita averages more than six significant strikes landed per minute, but she also absorbs six per minute as well. When she’s at her best, she works well behind her jab and uses it to set up straight shots. She’s relatively well-rounded with six of her fourteen professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. She is just 1-3 under the UFC banner and she has been out of action since February of 2022. This is a low level match-up and certainly one I could see going either way. That being said, I’m siding with Belbita. I see her having slight technical advantages on the feet here and this is a rare match-up where she should have a grappling advantage as well. Diana Belbita by Decision

David Dvorak -275 vs Steve Erceg +220

Anthony: Next is a matchup at flyweight between David Dvorak and Steve Erceg. This is a bout made on short notice after Dvorak had originally been scheduled to face Matt Schnell. While Erceg is making his debut here, he has been on the UFC radar for quite a while. He enters today on an eight fight winning streak. Erceg had been scheduled to face Clayton Carpenter last month but now draws into a tougher test here today. Dvorak has very fast hands and much better offensive striking in this matchup. He is coming off consecutive losses for sure, but Manel Kape and Mateus Nicolau are certainly quality opponents. I think the experience and talent of Dvorak warrant these wide odds, but I do warn that Erceg is very live. If nothing else this kid has a powerful right hand paired with high level submission grappling. It seems likely Erceg finds his way into some scrambles with Dvorak and I expect we see a few submission attempts. I’m rolling the dice on Erceg here in hopes he can find a finish. Steve Erceg by Round Two Submission
Nick: Dvorak is well-rounded. His striking seems to improve every time we see him fight and he’s more than content to grind on his opponents, utilizing his grappling to control position. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but each of those losses came against elite competition in Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau. Dvorak has never been submitted professionally, which could prove to be a key to victory for him here against a dangerous BJJ player in Steve Erceg. Steve Erceg will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice. Erceg is 9-1 professionally, with six of those wins coming via submission. Erceg comes in on an eight-fight winning streak, but it’s tough to expect a lot from him here as he’s been taking on an extremely low level of competition. Erceg is a live underdog if this fight hits the mat, but I expect Dvorak to stay a step ahead of him here. The line feels too wide and I’m not comfortable laying money on Dvorak at this price. Still, he is the rightful favorite. He should have a considerable striking advantage here and having never been submitted professionally before, it’s tough for me to see Erceg pulling off the upset. David Dvorak by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Blake Bilder -250 vs Kyle Nelson +200

Anthony: This should be a fun fight at featherweight between Kyle Nelson and Blake Bilder. Through two octagon appearances, Bilder has proven to be a very game fighter with a skillset that translates well to this division. He is a very high volume striker that can often set a pace opponents fail to keep. This could be a key factor in deciding today’s matchup against a fast starter like Nelson. Typically we see Nelson looking to exchange early and falling apart as bouts go late. He has only accrued one win in six total UFC appearances. I have made money betting against Nelson before and view Bilder as a solid pick to win today. He will have a decisive grappling advantage over Nelson and much better cardio in rounds two and three of this fight. Nelson’s overhand right is of course a threat when standing but I expect Bilder to eventually drag the guy to the mat. Blake Bilder by Round Three Submission
Nick: Bilder is well-rounded as a powerful puncher with advanced BJJ. He enters this match-up off an impressive decision win over Shane Young in his UFC debut. He is undefeated professionally, with eight wins and one draw. Bilder fights aggressively, and he’s known to put out a lot of volume on the feet. He’s very dangerous if he can take his opponents to the mat, but he struggles at times to find clear entries for takedowns. Kyle Nelson is a powerful striker, but fairly unconventional in his approach. He has flashed decent power, but mostly against mediocre competition. He’s often there to be countered in exchanges due to his hyper-aggressive style. He usually comes out strong, but quickly starts to fade as his cardio and conditioning are more of a weakness than a strength. He’s coming off a draw to a tough out in Doo Ho Choi, but many felt that he should have lost that one on the scorecards. Bilder is likely going to throw more volume than Nelson here, and I also expect he’ll have a grappling advantage. Nelson will be dangerous early, but as long as Bilder stays defensively sound he should be able to secure a win on the mat as this fight wears on. Blake Bilder by Round Two Submission

Aoriqileng -125 vs Aiemann Zahabi +100

Anthony: This should be a great matchup between Aoriqileng and Aiemann Zahabi. Aoriqileng is a very aggressive striker that is not afraid to step into the pocket and brawl with his opponents. He is entering this bout fresh off consecutive wins and appearing on what is now his third pay-per-view event. Surely he will be heavy on the front foot, urgent to scrap with Zahabi and give the fans a show. I give Aoriqileng the edge in power over Zahabi but not necessarily technical skill. Aoriqileng has very fast and powerful boxing, but not the most diverse attacks or best disguised entries. Zahabi is a much more cerebral fighter looking to counter and play to his strengths fighting at distance whenever he can. Rarely is Zahabi the more active fighter but here I could see him trading a lot of crisp attacks with Aoriqileng constantly in his face. I see this being a very close fight but Aoriqileng ultimately gets the victory. Zahabi has cashed a few times in a row as the underdog but I see him eating quite a few big shots in the early going of this one. Aoriqileng by Decision
Nick: Aoriqileng is extremely aggressive, but when he faces highly technical strikers he sometimes puts himself in danger overexerting himself in exchanges and leaving himself open to counter shots. He throws a lot of volume, landing more than six significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs more than seven significant strikes per minute. He’s a kill or be killed type of fighter and his grappling is below average for the division. Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards. Aoriqileng is the more dangerous fighter in this match-up, and certainly the more potent finisher. That being said, Zahabi should have technical advantages no matter where this one goes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Aoriqileng pull off a win via KO, but I prefer the more defensively-minded Zahabi here in front of his home crowd. Aiemann Zahabi by Decision

Miranda Maverick -285 vs Jasmine Jasudavicius +225

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Miranda Maverick and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Clearly Maverick is a big favorite in this spot given her recent performances climbing back up the division rankings. Beating Shanna Young and Sabina Mazo convincingly makes me much more confident in Maverick’s future as I was the few bouts prior. Her wrestling and top pressure are excellent, likely spelling trouble for the oncoming Jasudavicius. We often see Jasudavicius looking to grapple in her fights but this is not an opponent she will find much success facing. Maverick is the much stronger of these two and I expect one way traffic when they do clash on the mat. In addition to this, Maverick is a dangerous striker and likely to hold a significant edge over Jasudavicius in the standup. It is likely a fight that goes to a decision but I am rather confidently backing Maverick given the stylistic clash I expect to see. Miranda Maverick by Decision
Nick: Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 8-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC. She’s coming off a solid decision win over Gabriella Fernandes, but she’s taking a major step up in competition here against a really tough out in Miranda Maverick. Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. While both fighters have been tested in the UFC, Maverick has been tested more extensively against a higher level of competition. The main reason to back her here is that she’s likely going to have a massive advantage in both her wrestling ability and overall power. The line has gotten out of hand, but Maverick is the side. Miranda Maverick by Decision

Nassourdine Imavov -160 vs Chris Curtis +130

Anthony: The featured prelim is a showdown at middleweight between Chris Curtis and Nassourdine Imavov. Interesting dynamics surround this fight as Curtis’ primarily training partner Sean Strickland was the last man to face Imavov in their bout this January. Strickland beat Imavov convincingly, moving forward a lot and winning the battle of the lead hand jab. Curtis fights in a style he could find similar success but I do not think Imavov drops another bout in that same manner. With three rounds to work I expect Imavov to be back to his old ways, moving much more laterally and not being there when the counters of Curtis start to come. He has excellent footwork and very creative striking, cutting great angles to get off his more meaningful shots. In the larger 30 foot octagon we should see Imavov keep control of distance and force Curtis to chase him as this bout goes late. It is not my most confident pick but I do expect Imavov to fight his way back into the win column. Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Nick: This should be a fun match-up as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing. Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. Imavov is coming off a decision loss to Curtis’ teammate Sean Strickland. He was outstruck for the majority of that fight and struggled to close distance behind Strickland’s jab. Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Imavov to fight his type of fight. Curtis is at his best when he’s in close boxing range. Imavov is the better striker at a distance, but Curtis should have advantages in both power and cardio. This is a low confidence play, but I slightly prefer Imavov here. He’s the higher volume striker and more well-rounded. Curtis is one of the more capable underdogs on the card, but I expect he has issues closing distance and cutting off the cage here. Nassourdine Imavov by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Marc-Andre Barriault -140 vs Eryk Anders +110

Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight bout between Eryk Anders and Marc-Andre Barriault. This is a clear cut fight in my opinion as Anders will rely on a knockout to win. He is not the most consistent or talented middleweight but Anders has progressed nicely over his previous few fights in this division. He is very strong and physically built, but not very technical or crisp in terms of offensive striking. His pot shots from range are solid but Barriault is an aggressive fighter that tends to leave little room to breath. Barriault is termed Power Bar because of his consistent forward pressure and high output as fights go late. He does great work dirty boxing and landing huge shots in the clinch as he drives opponents backwards into the cage. I see Anders doing better than most keeping Barriault from controlling him, but nonetheless this fight being rather one sided in terms of offense landed and thrown. At these odds I will be backing the Canadian. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision
Nick: Barriault fights at a torrid pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. As a former Alabama University linebacker, Eryk Anders is a gifted athlete. That being said, he lacks the power you’d expect to see coming from his frame. He’s a quality striker in terms of technical ability, but he doesn’t always put out enough volume to win over judges on the scorecards. Anders is going to be the more powerful and physically imposing fighter here, but Barriault has a much higher fight IQ and he’s more advanced in terms of his technical ability. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I’ll side with Barriault. Anders will be dangerous here early, but I expect Barriault can out-volume him and his advantage in cardio should allow him to pull away late. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision

Dan Ige -260 vs Nate Landwehr +200

Anthony: Next is a fun matchup at featherweight between Dan Ige and Nate Landwehr. This should be a great scrap between two athletes that love to stand and bang. Ige is a very talented boxer with a lot of experience against the upper ranks of this division. As always he will hold the power advantage and likely land the bigger single shots over the course of this fight. He is certainly more technically sound than Landwehr but that won’t necessarily earn him a win here today. Landwehr is a constant pressure fighter looking to stay in his opponent’s face and push a ridiculous cardiovascular pace. He trains extensively by running long distances and ensuring he will be able to fight for a hard five rounds if called upon. Certainly he will need to rely on that volume and cardio to win here against such a consistent and well-rounded foe. Landwehr should make this a real dog fight but it is tough to say he will do enough to win it. Hopefully he will stay ahead of Ige, averaging three more strikes landed per minute in a comparison of their careers. I’ll have money on Landwehr as the sizable underdog. Nate Landwehr by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent featherweight match-up between two well-rounded competitors. Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner, and he’ll be taking a considerable tough out in competition here against a tough out in Dan Ige. Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but he’s also comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO over Damon Jackson, a result that likely secured his spot on the roster as he had been coming off three consecutive losses prior to that fight. I see Ige as the better technical striker, the more powerful striker, and a competent enough wrestler to mostly keep this fight standing. I also expect Ige to have a durability advantage here. I expect he can score a knockout on Landwehr, but this should be a fun one for as long as it lasts. Dan Ige by Round Two KO

Mike Malott -215 vs Adam Fugitt +175

Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight matchup between Mike Malott and Adam Fugitt. This is a massive showcase for Malott in what is just now his third UFC fight. The Canadian prospect is very aggressive, finishing all nine of his professional wins in the very first round. He has very sharp striking and quick hands. The defense from Malott is lacking a bit but I do not imagine Fugitt is the one to land a big shot and capitalize. We have seen Fugitt realize a large part of his success by utilizing his offensive grappling. While it does appear he has very solid jiu jitsu, I actually view him at a large disadvantage engaging on the mat here today. Malott is a black belt that stays very composed when grappling and extremely quick to jump on submission attempts as they are presented. I expect him to start fast here against Fugitt and fight a bit recklessly in front of his home crowd. Malott should get the job done here inside of the first ten minutes of action. I would be surprised to see Fugitt survive and grit this one out. Mike Malott by Round One KO
Nick: Malott has been a coach at American Top Team for years, but he only recently began re-engaging in professional competition. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his takedown entries and overall wrestling base is far from refined. He is a creative striker offensively, but he often leaves himself open to be countered. Malott is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming via first round finish. Fuggitt has decent striking ability, highlighted by a powerful left high kick. He’s shown solid wrestling ability as well, especially in his most recent win over Yusaku Kinoshita. Fugitt was a heavy underdog heading into that fight, but he did an excellent job leaning on his grappling to neutralize a gifted striker in Kinoshita and then finish him from mount late in the first round. It feels like the UFC is looking to boost Malott’s stock here as a featured fighter in front of his home crown. If Fugitt can survive here early he’ll be live for an upset, but Malott will likely be too much for him to handle early here. Mike Malott by Round One KO

Beneil Dariush -150 vs Charles Oliveira +125

Anthony: The co-main event is an epic lightweight showdown between Beneil Dariush and former champion Charles Oliveira. Dariush here risks a winning streak of eight total fights against an opponent in Oliveira that just saw his streak of 11-straight broken. The winner here will be in prime position to face Islam Makhachev for the belt this fall. With how aggressive and deliberate Oliveira had been during his title run, I imagine we see a similar approach here when the cage door locks today. An aggressive muay thai attack will come early from Charles, engaging with Dariush and quickly landing with power to the body and the head. Dariush is a much steadier fighter that could get caught moving backwards and failing to return fire here early, but usually he is content to bite down on the mouthpiece and huck back leather of his own. I give the edge striking to Oliveira but I am very interested to see what transpires when these two engage on the mat. Perhaps nobody has better positional grappling than Dariush while Oliveira is a deliberate submission artist with the most wins by sub in the promotions history. I do not think pulling guard is smart for Do Bronx but I do think he can beat Dariush in most scrambles or prolonged wrestling exchanges. Both camps should feel confident entering this matchup but I give the slight edge to Oliveira as an underdog. He is the more potent finisher of these two and I find it very unlikely this bout goes a full three rounds. Charles Oliveira by Round Two KO
Nick: Dariush is on an eight fight win streak and considered by many to be a dark horse title contender in this division. He has an outstanding ground game, but his striking has been what has UFC fans excited lately. He’s a highly technical kick boxer who effectively mixes in creative and timely spinning attacks. Dariush is hyper-aggressive so he sometimes leaves himself open to damage. He’s been wobbled in many of his recent fights, but his chin does seem to hold up more often than not. He’s coming off an impressive win over a rising contender in Mateusz Gamrot. A fight in which he outgrappled a highly credentialed wrestler and won the majority of striking exchanges on the feet. Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. He has been out of action since he lost his title to Islam Makhachev back in October of 2022. Prior to that loss he had been on an impressive ten-fight win streak. Oliveira has a near even striking differential. This means that as technically impressive as he can be offensively, defense is rarely a priority for him. This is another match-up with Fight of the Night potential, and a fight I could see going either way. However, I’ll side with Dariush as the more cerebral and technically sound fighter in this match-up. Oliveira will be extremely dangerous early, but I don’t expect that to be enough against such a defensively sound opponent. Beneil Dariush by Decision

Amanda Nunes -325 vs Irene Aldana +250

Anthony: In the main event Amanda Nunes will look to defend her bantamweight championship against Irene Aldana. The champion draws a new challenger here in lieu of a trilogy bout with Juliana Pena. It was a convincing victory for Nunes in her last octagon appearance, getting back into the win column and establishing herself once again the best female fighter in the world. She has accomplished everything in the sport at 35 years old and while there may not be many more fights in her future, Nunes still appears to be the same Lioness of old. Her elite decision making and aggressive offense make her a handful to deal with standing. Aldana is a phenomenal boxer with great pocket awareness and technical skill, but she does not match Nunes in terms of punching power. I’d imagine Aldana lands some clean combinations on the champion but I do not view her advantage standing by a large margin at all. Nunes also has solid wrestling that she may elect to utilize here making this a much more one-sided fight. Aldana has traditionally defended takedowns well but Nunes converts shots at a 56 percent clip. Her strength and jiu jitsu will overwhelm Aldana if this fight does end up hitting the mat. I think that Nunes defends the title here in what could certainly be a competitive matchup. Aldana is very talented but I find it hard to imagine her path to securing this win. And Still. Amanda Nunes by Round Three KO
Nick: This main event match-up is for the Women’s UFC Bantamweight Championship. Nunes was originally supposed to fight Julianna Pena here, but Pena was injured during her fight camp. This injury created an opening for Aldana to get a title shot, a shot many feel she deserved even before the rebooking. Irene Aldana has solid boxing ability, she throws meaningful shots, and her combinations are amongst the most effective in the division. She lands more than five significant strikes per minute, and she has won four of her last five fights under the UFC banner. She is most recently coming off an impressive KO win over Macy Chiasson, which came on a timely upkick to the liver late in the third round. Aldana is tough, but Nunes is truly the greatest of all time when the conversation is women’s mixed martial arts. She has a powerful wrestling base, advanced BJJ, and her power on the feet can’t be matched by anyone in this division. Nunes has monstrous kicks, which I expect can help in dulling the striking heavy attacks of Aldana in this match-up. Nunes should have a considerable grappling advantage in this match-up as well as she averages more than 2.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. Four of her twenty-two professional wins have come via submission. If Nunes makes the mistake of fighting in the pocket with Aldana she could be in trouble here. As long as she doesn’t I expect her to once again defend her title. And Still. Amanda Nunes by Round Four Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com