It’s that time of the year where 30 NHL fan bases have begun firing up hypothetical trade situations, dream UFA signings, and more.
With the Stanley Cup Final raging on, and no end in sight for the ongoing ownership saga for your Ottawa Senators, fans are occupying themselves with speculative trade scenarios. And look no further than Alex DeBrincat, whose future was widely discussed for much of the season for the Senators.
The two-time 40 goal scorer had a disappointing statistical performance to many, finishing the year with 27 goals and 66 points. It’s now being reported by Bruce Garrioch and Pierre LeBrun that DeBrincat is leaning towards a trade out of Ottawa.
This doesn’t mean that he has requested a trade. But with 1 year between him and unrestricted free agency, if the Sens want to get a safe return for a player they acquired at the last draft, then they’ll have to explore options now. It’s still possible DeBrincat comes full circle and decides to sign long term in Ottawa. But the early indications are that unless there’s a systems related overhaul in the near future, that’s unlikely to happen.
DeBrincat was eligible for an extension on July 13th, 2022. If he was ready to stay here in Ottawa long term, then he most likely would have signed by now. So, let’s fire up the trade machine and look at 3 options that could work as a return for Alex DeBrincat.
Ottawa receives: Seth Jarvis, Jack Drury
Carolina receives: Alex DeBrincat
Carolina seems to be the sexy pick among many when speculating trades. It was clear this season and playoffs that Carolina needs goal scoring. They didn’t have Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty, but adding Alex DeBrincat would help in areas as well.
Their powerplay was 20th in the regular season, despite being the second-best team in the league. DeBrincat has been one of the leagues’ best powerplay producers over the past 5 years. Since 2018-19, DeBrincat is 11th in powerplay goals. He would get lots of powerplay time and won’t need to be their #1 forward.
On the Ottawa side, Ottawa receives cap space with Jarvis and Drury holding 1 more year on their entry level contracts. Ottawa has 5 million made up of “dead money” in 2023-24 ($3.45M for Bobby Ryan, Colin White, and Michael Del Zotto’s buyouts, and $1.5M for Matt Murray), but that drops to under a million with just Colin Whites’ cap hit on the books going forward.
Jarvis, the 13th overall pick of the 2020 draft, has had a solid and consistent start to his young career. His 79 points through 150 games isn’t going to jump off the page, but he’s a player that you want on your team. He’s like a water bug out there; he’s fast, he forechecks and has the skill to back it up. Playing two seasons under Rod Brind’Amour has most likely taught some good defensive skills as well. The 21-year-old took just 6 penalties in 82 games this year.
Drury is a 23-year-old center/winger that hasn’t exactly broken out as a consistent NHL player just yet. The offensive skill set is there, he just needs to figure it out at the NHL level. His 10 points in 40 NHL games seems underwhelming, but he’s mostly been playing fourth line minutes with the Hurricanes. In his draft +3 season in 2020-21, he scored 30 points in 41 games for Växjö HC in the SHL, arguably the 2nd best league in the world. Ridly Greig is projected to be on the 3rd line next year, but it’s still possible he’ll need some more time in the AHL. This is where Drury comes in, who looks to be on the verge of becoming a solid middle six forward.
Seattle receives: Alex DeBrincat
Ottawa receives: Jared McCann
I would be surprised to see this trade happen due to how beloved McCann is in Seattle. He just signed a 5-year extension a year ago and is coming off of a 40-goal season. His value has never been higher so there’s always the risk of buying at the peak rather than the dip. DeBrincats’ value has never been lower but has an impressive track record as a 25-year-old. So why not a classic hockey trade, 1 for 1?
Like Carolina, Seattle also struggled on the power play in the regular season and playoffs. Seattle was 21st in the regular season and 14th in the playoffs. McCann was injured for half the playoffs and wasn’t really a key contributor with 3 points in 8 games. The Kraken pushed Dallas to game 7 of the semifinals, showing they could be a couple pieces away from being a true contender. We’ve seen expansion teams go for those big-name players (i.e., Vegas) in their early years.
For the Sens, it should be clear that McCann probably won’t be a 40-goal scorer going forward. And they don’t need that. He shot 19% this year, but if he is a 60-point player playing second line minutes then the Sens will get great value. He’s 27 years of age and signed to 4 more years at a great cap hit, which can fit in the Senators window to compete. McCann also has one of the better takeaway to give away ratios, with 28 giveaways and 56 takeaways. He would fit perfectly in the top six.
Anaheim receives: Alex DeBrincat
Ottawa receives: John Gibson (1.4 million retained), Isac Lundestrom, BOS 2nd Round Pick
Out of any of these trades, this one addresses needs but would be rather surprising to see it executed. Both teams have a player on their hands that seems to want to move. DeBrincat could still play another year for the Sens then leave in free agency technically, but long term doesn’t seem to gravitate towards Ottawa.
For Gibson, He’s been a part of some bad Anaheim teams these past few years, with a terrible defense core. Gibson requested a trade just this week, and should be on the move this summer. Both organizations’ biggest priorities this off season is addressing a player that doesn’t want to be a part of the organization, so why not make a trade?
With Anaheim most likely drafting Adam Fantilli at 2nd overall, the Ducks will soon be emerging from their rebuild with players like Zegras, Terry, McTavish, and Drysdale. With the Ducks seemingly penciled in for 40 shots against per game this year, DeBrincat isn’t going to help that. But he’s always been a dominating player when it comes to possession. So, keeping the puck in the offensive zone will create less time in the defensive zone.
If this was the return for Ottawa, I think fans would be largely disappointed. But this would be a risk Dorion might have to take to secure the goaltending. With Gibson coming with a retained cap hit, the Sens could afford to have a starting goalie for the next four seasons at $5 million.
Gibsons’ value has never been lower, as he’s averaged a .902 save percentage the past four seasons. But from 2015-2019 (when the Ducks were good), he was hovering around a .920 year in year out. Isac Lundestrom seems like a player that Anaheim could part ways with and could fit nicely in Ottawa’s’ bottom six. He’s a fast penalty killer with some offensive touch. Without a pick until the 4th round, the Sens might want to look to acquire a mid-round pick as well.
John Gibson does have a 10 team no trade list, so it’s entirely possible that Ottawa is on here. But with the Sens turning the corner as a franchise, it’s more likely now than in the past that he could waive that.
At the end of the day Sens fans need to be prepared for an underwhelming return for DeBrincat if indeed he’s moved. It’s unlikely that they’ll acquire someone with his offensive upside coming back their way, without throwing in additional pieces, something that isn’t entirely out of the question with a logjam of players like JBD, Thomson etc. fighting for roster spots.
That being said, NHL ready prospects, goaltending, or a 1 for 1 swap for someone less offensively gifted, but at a more reasonable cap hit seem to be the most logical outcomes of any potential deal.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: Jenn G. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.