UFC Vegas 72 Analysis

UFC Vegas 72: Song vs Simon – 4.29.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 72: Song vs Simon. We are back to the UFC Apex tonight for another slate of exciting matchups. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 89-67-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 103-53-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-29-2023 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Jamey-Lyn Horth -160 vs Hailey Cowan +130

Anthony: The card opens with a bantamweight matchup between Hailey Cowan and Jamey-Lyn Horth. This is the UFC debut for Horth who earned her most recent victory in the LFA. She is a solid fighter, moving up from flyweight here and taking on an opponent in Cowan more reliant on getting the fight to the mat. Horth is solid everywhere and very strong, likely capable of defending the takedowns shot by Cowan here. Cowan was more than a pound heavy yesterday in what is now her second consecutive weight miss. I think Cowan is a bit overhyped after a mediocre showing on Dana White’s Contender Series and while I could see her winning this fight via her grappling, Horth feels like the safer side to me. She is the more powerful striker with far better technique than Cowan. Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision
Nick: Hailey Cowan will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Cláudia Leite. In spite of the win it was somewhat surprising Cowan was awarded a contract for her performance, as she was nearly finished via submission and really didn’t do much to pull away on the scorecards. Cowan is long and athletic for the division, but she seems to be more of an athlete than a fighter. She has base level striking and grappling ability, but unless she continues to make dramatic improvements I don’t expect her to hang on the roster for long. Jamey-Lyn Horth will be making her UFC debut here, after capturing the LFA Vacant Flyweight Championship via submission over Mayra Cantuária. She is 33-years old, but only 5-0 professionally. It’s very difficult to gauge what type of level she’s on as her abilities really haven’t been tested extensively against high-level competition. Still, she seems fairly well-rounded when you watch her regional film. This is a low level match-up and a tough fight to call. That being said, I prefer to back Horth here. Cowan will have a size and strength advantage, but not much else. Hort seems to be the more natural martial artist and I expect she can find a finish before this one is over. Jamey-Lyn Horth by Round Two Submission

Journey Newson -190 vs Marcus McGhee +150

Anthony: Next is a bout between Journey Newson and the debuting Marcus McGhee. After Brian Kelleher withdrew from a bout with Newson this week, McGhee stepped in on just a few days notice to face him at 140 pounds. We have seen McGhee prior training with the likes of Sean O’Malley at the MMA Lab. He had been working under coach Tim Welch for quite some time and appears to be a rather complete fighter as he debuts today. He has good timing on the feet and some flashes of brilliance when striking, but it does not appear he is necessarily that dangerous to stand and exchange with. A large number of McGhee’s victories have come against rather low level competition. Newson is also rather mediocre in terms of his pure skill, but I do like the steady nature of his style compared to that of a more reckless McGhee. I anticipate this fight going a full fifteen minutes and Newson putting in the far more effective work in rounds two and three. It looked to be a very strenuous weight cut for McGhee despite the extra five pounds allotted to him for this matchup. Journey Newson by Decision
Nick: Marcus McGhee will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on just four-days notice. He’s getting a late start to his professional career as he’s 33-years old and only 6-1 professionally, but he fights out of a solid camp via MMA Lab and he seems to be mostly well-rounded when you watch him on film. Newson has power in his strikes and decent technical ability at range, but he is sometimes too tentative as he waits for fights to come to him. He has a BJJ black belt, but most of his fights take place at striking range. Newson is decent everywhere, but he really has no standout skill. McGhee is similar in a lot of ways, but it does seem likely he’ll be the more aggressive fighter in this match-up. This is another low-level match-up and a low-confidence play, but I’ll side with the more aggressive McGhee in his debut. Marcus McGhee by Decision

Stephanie Egger -310 vs Irina Alekseeva +240

Anthony: Next is a bout between Stephanie Egger and the debuting Irina Alekseeva. This is a fight contracted at bantamweight, but Alekseeva weighed in four pounds heavy yesterday in what is not a stellar start to her promotional tenure. The Russian is just 4-1 as a professional after taking her first professional fight in 2019. Alekseeva has an extensive judo background and very solid grappling offense, but this matchmaking is questionable as she faces Egger in her debut. This is a sizable bantamweight with excellent judo and jiu jitsu of her own. Not only does Egger have much more total cage time than Alekseeva but also the far better level of competition on her resume. I am expecting this to be a fight largely contested in these grappling exchanges and the veteran Egger quite clearly having the upper hand. Stephanie Egger by Round Two Submission
Nick: Egger’s resume in MMA leaves a lot to be desired, but she’s a decorated black belt in Judo with a win over Ronda Rousey and several other highly regarded judo tournament scalps to her name. She’s a strong grappler in the clinch, she does a good job grinding on her opponents up against the cage and most of her success comes in closing the distance and neutralizing her opponents’ offensive weapons. Irina Alekseeva will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Bellator win over Stephanie Page. She’s 4-1 professionally, and she’s been out of action since October of 2021. She’s a credentialed Judoka and it seems she has decent instincts when grappling, but her BJJ seems far less refined than her opponents will be in this spot. The line feels wide here considering the low-level nature of this match-up. However, Egger is very clearly the pick. Her skills are more refined everywhere and she’s been tested against much tougher competition. I expect Alekseeva to be aggressive early, but Egger should be able to lean on her superior Judo to work her opponent to the mat for a submission. Stephanie Egger by Round One Submission

Charles Johnson -140 vs Cody Durden +115

Anthony: This should be a fun matchup at flyweight between Charles Johnson and Cody Durden. Johnson has shown me a lot to like since joining the UFC and while there are some glaring deficiencies in his skillset, I do like the overall work that he does. Johnson averages 4.46 significant strikes per minute coupled with a high rate of defending opponent’s strikes. His boxing is excellent and far better than that of Cody Durden. While Durden offers a bit of a threat with his big over hands, Johnson is much more fluid on the feet and capable of hurting opponents when firing in either stance. It is safe to assume that Durden will be looking for takedowns here to control Johnson and avoid eating many clean strikes. Johnson will need to be quick to defend shots from Durden early in order to get his offense really flowing. He managed to stuff seven of ten attempts by Ode Osbourne in his last octagon appearance but came up short on the judge’s scorecards. I worry about him getting blanketed here but if these two do stand for more than half of this fight, Johnson has the skills to build a considerable lead. Durden’s kickboxing is nothing special. Charles Johnson by Decision
Nick: Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion. He’s a technically skilled boxer with effective defensive wrestling ability. He’s well-rounded, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of his overall talent as he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a hard fought decision loss to Ode Osbourne. Johnson does his best work at striking range. He works well behind his jab, he does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents and he also carries surprising power for his frame. He has decent wrestling ability, but he mostly prefers to stand and trade. Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in this particular match-up I fully expect him to try to score takedowns to control position. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over JP Buys and Carlos Mota. This is a tough fight to call and one I could see going either way, but I’m siding with Johnson. Simply, I feel his advantages in striking here should be greater than Durden’s grappling. Charles Johnson by Decision

Martin Buday -120 vs Jake Collier +100

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout between Jake Collier and Martin Buday. I have had a great read on Collier since making his debut at heavyweight in 2020. The veteran has a style focused on dictating range and landing with much more volume than his opponents tend to return. While Collier lost both octagon appearances last year, he looked rather serviceable in both showings. I have a very hard time picking him here though as he draws into Buday. This is a true heavyweight who is much larger than Collier and more dominant in the pocket and the clinch. Buday got two wins last year and although they were not pretty, he does tend to draw out fights significantly and frustrate opponents with his weight and movement. I’d like to see him lean heavily on Collier here and use his strength to win minutes pinning Jake against the fence. Buday could also look to land a single leg here, testing Collier’s 67 percent rate of defending shots. Normally I do not feel confident betting low-level heavyweight fights but I think Buday has a style built to completely squash Collier here today. Martin Buday by Round Two KO
Nick: Martin Buday is primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability, but he is also totally content to play out fights at striking range. He has solid footwork and decent power for his frame, but he is sometimes slow and plodding and it seems he’s often too content to wait for fights to come to him. He is coming off back-to-back wins, both via decision. He’s 11-1 professionally but he’s another fighter that has yet to really be tested against top level competition. Collier is the more technical striker in this match-up and he’s likely to throw more volume. As a former middleweight, he doesn’t really have finishing power in his new division. Still, he does a good job throwing combinations and putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Collier is coming off back-to-back losses, and it seems very likely he’s fighting to keep his roster spot here. He was having success early in his last match-up with Chris Barnett, but he gassed out, overpursuing the finish and ultimately collapsed in the second round. This is another low level match-up and thus, a low confidence play. I’m backing Buday as the more powerful and well-rounded fighter. Martin Buday by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Josh Quinlan -180 vs Trey Waters +145

Anthony: The main card begins with welterweights Josh Quinlan and Trey Waters squaring off. It is a short notice appearance for Waters who is stepping in for Quinlan’s original opponent Ange Loosa. Waters had previously appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series but lost promptly up against Gabriel Bonfim. He is a solid fighter with great size and distance striking, I just feel the skill showcased thus far appears to be LFA caliber. At just 28, Waters is still rather raw in terms of rounding out his skillset and looking comfortable in many of the positions we have seen him before. Quinlan is the much more polished fighter, having great striking and shocking power for a 170 pounder. He is a drug cheat previously suspended after popping for drostanolone. Years of abusing steroids make Quinlan a tough man to fade, especially with a lanky striker standing opposite him. I like his chances to stay undefeated here while continuing his trend of finishing every single fight thus. Four of his seven victories have come inside of just one round. He should be looking to quickly close the distance and get his hands on Waters’ chin. Josh Quinlan by Round One KO
Nick: Josh Quinlan is 6-0 professionally, with all of his wins coming inside the distance. He’s coming off a KO win over Jason Witt, but prior to that fight he had been out of action due to a USADA suspension for an anabolic steroid. It was good to see he still had his power and explosiveness in his return, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can sustain that as he continues to fight high level opponents. At his best, Quinlan is an explosive striker who does an excellent job closing distance. He’s a competent grappler, but there’s really no denying he prefers to stand and exchange on the feet. Trey Waters will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Jalin Fuler for the LFA Vacant Welterweight Championship. He is 7-1 professionally, with three wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s a lengthy striker who can be deceptively dangerous in exchanges. He works well behind his jab and puts out a lot of volume. The line feels a bit wide here, but I do see Quinlan as the rightful favorite. He’s the more potent finisher and he should have a considerable grappling advantage if he chooses to lean on that part of his game. Josh Quinlan by Round Two KO

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -180 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +145

Anthony: This should be a great heavyweight scrap between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. De Lima is coming off a victory over Andrei Arlovski last fall, winning in fewer than two minutes total. Pezao has always been a finisher, quick to action and never afraid to swing over hands with his very long arms. Cortes-Acosta is a much newer addition to the roster but thus far I am liking what he has shown. Cortes-Acosta is a very big heavyweight with great footwork and agility for a man of his size. He has the advantage of height and reach over Pezao which should be a key factor in this matchup. He throws on average 7.81 significant strikes per minute compared to the 3.57 of de Lima. Cortes-Acosta should be landing at a much higher clip today and largely controlling this fight, of course unless Pezao can land a big right hand of his own. De Lima has serious power and we have yet to see evidence that Cortes-Acosta has a chin that can take clean shots. Regardless I feel obligated to take him given the edge he possesses in speed, technique and volume. Cortes-Acosta is the side I want if this fight does go late and I am a bit surprised the odds on the matchup are so wide. Paying -180 on Pezao never seems like a wise investment. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision
Nick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima throws powerful strikes with 14 of his 20 professional wins coming via KO. He always seems to come out strong, but as his fights wear on it’s very rare that his cardio holds up for the better part of fifteen minutes. He’s a decent grappler as well in terms of his BJJ,, but his gas tank usually prevents him from leaning on that part of his game consistently. de Lima is coming off an impressive win via submission over a talented veteran in Andrei Arlovski. Cortes-Acosta is 9-0 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s athletic for a heavyweight and he has shown decent cardio at this level, but his power is a bit of a question mark as he’s really only KO’d mediocre competition. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut, a decision over Chase Sherman. He looked solid in that spot, but we’ve yet to see his grappling tested at the UFC level. It’s tough to back either of these fighters with confidence, but I’ll side with de Lima here. I expect he can score an early takedown and put Cortes-Acosta on his back as he works him for a finish. Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Round One Submission

Julian Erosa -145 vs Fernando Padilla +120

Anthony: Next is a featherweight contest between Julian Erosa and Fernando Padilla. It is the UFC debut for Padilla who has been signed to the roster for more than two years. The 26-year-old trains out of Mexico and appears to be a rather exciting prospect in this division. It is tough to speculate the version of Padilla we see given this hiatus, but even a few years ago he appeared to have a very solid skillset. I like the offensive aggression from Padilla and his ability to strike at range. He is similar in frame to Erosa, both taller than a good portion of their peers at 145 pounds. He should have plenty of opportunities to touch Erosa, standing orthodox opposite his southpaw stance and likely using kicks for more body and leg attacks. Erosa is a scrappy fighter with what appears to be better defense and grappling than the newcomer. He is favored in a fight that goes long, likely dragging Padilla to the mat a few times and wearing on his gas tank. However, Padilla has some serious pop on his shots and Erosa is not necessarily a defensive wizard himself. Erosa has been knocked out five times in the UFC and I like Padilla’s chances to pull off the upset by catching Erosa today. Fernando Padilla by Round Two KO
Nick: Julian Erosa is well rounded, with twelve professional wins by submission as well as eleven by knockout. His greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots to throw them. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as seven of his eleven professional losses have come via KO. Padillia is a decent striker, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and he doesn’t tend to throw or land extended combinations. He has decent power, but he seemingly has trouble setting up his bigger shots. He’s taking this fight on short notice, and he really hasn’t been tested against top level competition. Erosa has a very clear path to victory here if he chooses to grapple, but if he doesn’t Padilla could catch him for an upset KO. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll side with Erosa as I expect he has more paths to victory. Julian Erosa by Decision

Rodolfo Vieira -235 vs Cody Brundage +185

Anthony: This is a matchup at middleweight between Rodolfo Vieira and Cody Brundage. These are two rather volatile fighters to predict with each sharing similar resumes and style. While Brundage is a fighter often looking to initiate in grappling exchanges, Vieira is a world class BJJ black belt and five time jiu jitsu world champion. There is no doubt in my mind Vieira will be the one controlling this fight on the mat. Brundage has slightly better striking than Vieira but he has a tendency to aggressively pursue early entries into the clinch. Brundage has scored a takedown in three consecutive octagon appearances, all in fights decided in less than four minutes time. Vieira has also faded in previous fights before, making me anticipate no more than two rounds of total action here. There is money to be made betting the under in this bout but I am not confidently backing either side. Vieira should find himself locking in more frequent submission attempts than Brundage with a far superior technique. It will likely be Vieira getting his hand raised today. Rodolfo Vieira by Round One Submission
Nick: Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He’s going to have a technical wrestling advantage here, but he’s likely going to want to keep this fight standing as Viera is extremely dangerous on the mat. Vieira is one of the most talented BJJ players in the UFC as a decorated Black belt and Five-time BJJ World Champion. He’s a Freestyle Wrestling and a Combat Sambo Master of sport, but he definitely leans on his jiu-jitsu as it’s far and away his greatest strength. Vieira’s striking is far from technical, but he’s a monster physically so he can put power behind his punches and close distance effectively enough to work opponents to the mat. As dangerous as he is, his cardio is a major liability. The line feels a bit too wide here knowing the flaws in Vieira’s game. Still, he should have Brundage covered no matter where this one goes. Rodolfo Vieira by Round Two Submission

Caio Borralho -365 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +275

Anthony: In the co-main event Caio Borralho will be facing Michal Oleksiejczuk at middleweight. It was a great 2022 campaign for Borralho who went 3-0 upon joining the UFC. He is a very well rounded fighter with excellent Fight IQ and a technically sound style. Borralho does well utilizing all of his weapons striking, mixing in kicks and overwhelming his opponents with some very diverse looks. He is effective taking fights to the mat to avoid unnecessary damage, and timely when scoring takedowns to secure the round. Oleksiejczuk is much more reckless than Borralho, making this a very intriguing matchup. While Oleksiejczuk has the power to put anyone’s lights out, that could play to a detriment against an expert tactician like this. I see Oleksiejczuk landing a few big strikes but getting countered more often than viable here. I also believe Borralho could quite easily win this fight if he works to keep Oleksiejczuk glued to the mat. He has secured a takedown in every UFC fight thus far. Caio Borralho by Decision
Nick: Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but there’s no denying he’s the more dangerous and explosive fighter when it comes to striking in this match-up.Borralho is light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. His striking has been impressive in his short UFC tenure, but he’s found most of his success via grappling and submissions. If this fight takes place on the feet, Oleksiejczuk is going to have a great chance to pull off the upset. That being said, I expect Borralho to force grappling exchanges where he should have a considerable advantage. As long as he stays safe early, Barralho should be able to grind Oleksiejczuk to the mat and then work him for a submission. Caio Borralho by Round Three Submission

Ricky Simon -120 vs Song Yadong +100

Anthony: The main event is a bantamweight contest between Ricky Simon and Song Yadong. It is a very interesting clash between two of the division’s many young stars. Yadong enters off a loss to Cory Sandhagen last fall, a bout that saw him overwhelmed by a far more technical striker. Yadong generally enjoys an advantage while standing thanks to his quick hands and meaningful power here at 135 pounds. He defends 71 percent of opponent takedowns and generally does well keeping the fight at his preferred range. This will be a key factor as he faces Simon, largely known for his high pace and offensive wrestling. Both men will need to be considerate of their energy, but over the course of five rounds I see Simon landing a good handful of takedowns and scoring some meaningful points. Training at American Top Team Portland, Simon has been victorious in his last five octagon appearances. I expect him to be a step ahead of Yadong when it comes to most exchanges along the cage and of course on the mat. He seems the more likely to earn a finish and likely the fresher fighter late if this is a grappling heavy affair. While I understand near even odds in a close bout like this, I will trust Simon with my money. He has producing much more consistently against top level competition. His resume includes wins over Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson and Jack Shore. Ricky Simon by Round Three Submission
Nick: Simon averages just shy of a ridiculous seven takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage here and I expect he’s not far off from Yadong in terms of striking ability. Song Yadong has serious power with eight of his nineteen professional wins coming by way of knockout. He’s an effective striker that does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow the momentum of his opponents. Primarily a striker, we have seen Yadong continue to improve on his grappling ability. These improvements are likely a result of the fact he’s been training out of Team Alpha Male. If Simon makes the mistake of standing and swinging with Song he could find himself on the wrong end of an upset here. That being said, I feel he’s the more well-rounded fighter here and the fighter with more paths to victory. I expect Simon to lean on his grappling as he pulls this one out on the scorecards. Ricky Simon by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com