UFC Vegas 71 Analysis

UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs Blaydes – 4.22.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs Blaydes. Action rolls on this weekend at the UFC Apex with a clash of heavyweight title contenders. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 84-62-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 100-46-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-22-2023 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Danaa Batgerel -150 vs Brady Hiestand +125

Anthony: The card today begins with a fight between bantamweights Danaa Batgerel and Brady Hiestand. I have been high on Hiestand since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter and see a very bright future ahead for the 23 year old. There is still a lot of growth between fights Hiestand who is entering today’s bout off a win versus Fernie Garcia. In general I feel Hiestand matches up well facing the strikers here at 135 pounds. He has good cardio, consistent grappling pressure and excellent ground control. Hiestand was able to accrue a whopping nine minutes in that November appearance. Batgerel is without a doubt the better striker in this matchup with the tools needed to find a win on the feet. It is a very tough bout to call but I do side with the grappler here. Batgerel has dropped two bouts in a row and I could see another close decision going the way of his opponent here. While Batgerel has defended most takedowns faced since joining the UFC, this is his first draw into a legitimate threat grappling and wrestling. Brady Hiestand by Decision
Nick: Danaa Batgerel is an extremely powerful and technical striker.We haven’t really seen him find success against a high level of competition, but he has true flash KO power which is rare for the bantamweight division. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to Kyung Ho Kang, and he’ll be taking a step down in competition here against an up-and-comer in Brady Hiestand. Hiestand is still a developing prospect, but his wrestling is very advanced. He has explosive hips and he does a good job holding inferior opponents in position. Hiestand will certainly have a grappling advantage here, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep the majority of this fight from taking place on the feet. Danaa Batgerel has outstanding countering ability and he lands more than six significant strikes per minute. He has a decent 66% takedown defense, and he recently shifted camps to Fight Ready where I fully expect his defensive grappling to improve. This is a low-level match-up so I don’t suggest investing heavily either way, but Batgerel certainly seems to be the side here. The advantage he has striking her is greater than Heistand’s will be grappling. Danaa Batgerel by Round One KO

Francis Marshall -200 vs William Gomis +160

Anthony: Next we have a flyweight bout between Francis Marshall and William Gomis. It was an underwhelming debut for Gomis in his most recent octagon appearance, winning a decision over Jarno Errens in a back and forth scrap. As the -220 favorite in that spot Gomis appeared to fall flat, but he did show more in terms of his overall grappling and ground work than what I had previously been aware of. Really Gomis would prefer to fight every bout at range, utilizing his length and good timing to strike at distance and pick his shots from there. Marshall is unlikely to give him that luxury here today given the style of fight he tends to engage in. The undefeated Marshall does well pressuring opponents, making bouts scrappy and mixing in takedown attempts as needed. While I do believe Gomis lands with a bit more pop, Marshall can set and maintain a high output in this fight and likely outwork the less experienced Gomis. I won’t be getting heavily involved here at -200 but it appears to me Marshall is the clear side. Francis Marshall by Round Three KO
Nick: Marshall is undefeated at 7-0. He’s well-rounded as an effective offensive striker, but four of his seven professional wins have actually come via rear naked choke. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO in his UFC debut over a tough out in Marcelo Rojo. He pushed a serious pace in that match-up, he wore damage well, and he showed that even at the ripe age of 24 he’s ready to compete at a very high level. Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges, and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. Gomis is on a nine-fight win streak, including a win in his UFC debut, a majority decision over Jarno Errens. This is a tough fight to call, but I slightly prefer Marshall in this match-up. The line feels too wide, but I see Marshall as the more aggressive fighter which in the small cage of the UFC Apex should be enough for him to find a timely finish. Francis Marshall by Round Two KO

Junior Tafa -110 vs Mohammed Usman -110

Anthony: This is a very low-level scrap at heavyweight with Junior Tafa facing Mohammed Usman. It is the promotional debut for Tafa and just his fifth appearance in professional MMA. The former kickboxer is following the path of his brother Justin and taking his talents from Queensland, Australia to the biggest stage there is. He is certainly more technically crisp on the feet than Usman and much more diverse in his striking arsenal. Tafa will likely use more kicks and body attacks than Usman, taking an early lead in terms of strikes landed. Both have the power to flatline most heavyweights though, making this one of the most volatile predictions tonight. I worry about the big overhand from Usman, but it is not often we see him connect flush in the very first round. I anticipate Tafa landing the cleaner and more frequent shots, ultimately putting him in position to win this bout. It is unlikely this matchup sees the scorecards and while it has not yet been proven inside of a cage, Tafa is the steadier fighter with superior fifteen minute cardio. Junior Tafa by Round Three KO
Nick: Junior Tafa will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Tsuyoshi Sudario for a respectable promotion in RIZIN. He is only 4-0 professionally in MMA, but he has also fought professionally in both Muay Thai and kickboxing. Primarily a striker, Tafa is athletic for a heavy weight. He does well striking at range. He has advanced footwork and surprising speed, and all four of his professional wins in MMA have come via KO. Mohammed Usman is the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He’s nowhere near as talented as his brother, but he is athletically gifted with true KO power on the feet.He’s a competent wrestler, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade as three of his four most recent wins have come via KO. Usman will certainly have the wrestling advantage in this match-up, but his unwillingness to lean on that part of his game has me siding with Tafa here. The line is too wide here and this is a low level match-up. Still, I expect Tafa to come out firing and overwhelm Usman before he has a chance to settle in. Junior Tafa by Round One KO

Norma Dumont -120 vs Karol Rosa +100

Anthony: This will be a fight between Norma Dumont and Karol Rosa at women’s featherweight. Rosa is moving back up weight for today’s bout after a 2-1 record thus far in the division. While Rosa does appear to do fine at this weight she is facing the one real name on the roster that truly does fit the frame of a 145er. Dumont looked great in her last time out, boxing in the ears of Danyelle Wolf who is known for her striking. She is a very steady fighter with solid hands, a good 1-2 and the wrestling advantage over most opponents in a three round fight. While Rosa could certainly give Dumont issues on the feet in terms of her output and range control, I find it very unlikely she takes more than two rounds convincingly. While Rosa has superior footwork there will be very few opportunities to jump into the pocket and hurt Norma. A sketchy matchup like this won’t warrant any big bets from me but I do like Dumont to get the victory today. There seems to be a trend here in the thin featherweight division, and normally you can rely on Dumont to get the nod in a bout that goes three. Norma Dumont by Decision
Nick: Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling ability. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space, and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks, which she should be able to utilize to keep Rosa from overwhelming her on the feet here. Karol Rosa has landed nearly seven strikes per minute in the UFC, so it should come as no surprise that she’s going to want to keep this fight standing as much as possible. Her only loss in the UFC came to an Olympic level wrestler in Sara McMann. She is 5-1 within the promotion and most recently coming off a solid win over a tough out in Lina Lansberg. Rosa has a decent 72 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but she’s moving up a weight class here. I expect Dumont to lean on a grappling heavy game plan, as her size and strength advantages allow her to pull off the win. Norma Dumont by Decision

Montel Jackson -650 vs Rani Yahya +430

Anthony: Next is a matchup between bantamweights Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. This is a very interesting matchup stylistically. Yahya is one of the division’s best grapplers and a good stylistic test for most challengers. He certainly has the jiu jitsu advantage over Jackson, but not likely the wrestling to match that of the -650 favorite. The younger and more explosive Jackson should have no problem escaping tough positions on the mat and accruing prolonged periods of control on top of Yahya. I see this fight only being won by Yahya on the mat, and a diverse athlete like Jackson stuffing any early submission attempts. Yahya would’ve been a live underdog if this fight took place some years ago but at this stage of his career I do not think he lasts fifteen minutes. The late cardio for Yahya is not there. Jackson benefits from a seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup and has the much better offensive striking. This one is likely a blowout one way or the other and I am confident predicting Jackson to earn himself a stoppage victory. Montel Jackson by Round Two KO
Nick: Montel Jackson is good pretty much everywhere. He’s primarily a striker with surprising power for a bantamweight, now coming off three consecutive wins. As good as he’s looked lately, Jackson has been finding most of his success against lower level talent. He was once a highly regarded prospect, but it’s hard not to feel he’s developing much slower than expected. At 30-years old he still has time to make a run towards the top of the division, but he has very little room for error. Rani Yahya is a jiu jitsu specialist with twenty-one of his twenty-eight professional wins coming by way of submission. He has excellent offensive grappling, but can struggle against opponents with good or even decent takedown defense. The key to this matchup will be whether or not Yahya can take this fight to the mat. If Yahya can’t catch Jackson in something early, it wouldn’t be surprising if his cardio started to fade. We have seen Yahya gas out and end up picked apart on the feet in the past. Jackson has a decent 67% takedown defense in the UFC and he has never been submitted professionally. Yahya will have a chance to pull off the upset early here, but it seems more likely Jackson continues to build momentum as he keeps this fight standing and wins on the feet. Montel Jackson by Round Two KO

Ricky Glenn -170 vs Christos Giagos +135

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bantamweight showdown between RIcky Glenn and Christos Giagos. Both these guys have spent some time under the promotional banner and fought a good crop of solid talent. While Giagos has certainly faced the higher level fighters, he did accrue losses against Drakker Klose, Thiago Moises, Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. I like his skillset, particularly the boxing and overall forward pressure implemented by Giagos. However, he is usually a very different fighter in round three compared to one and two. It is understandable Glenn is favored given his more consistent cardio and a more steady striking offense. But my pick is Giagos anyways expecting him to bank the first two rounds of a matchup that favors him stylistically. Glenn will struggle to contest Giagos’ offense in most exchanges here as The Spartan crowds distance, working heavy on his front foot. Christos Giagos by Decision
Nick: Ricky Glenn has underrated power in his strikes, with eleven of his twenty-two professional wins coming by way of KO. He most recently fought to a Majority Decision against one of the brighter prospects in the division in Grant Dawson. He showed dramatic improvement in his grappling ability in that match-up, especially defensively. Christos Giagos fights at a torrid pace, especially early in fights. He has solid takedown entries, a decent wrestling base and he usually does a good job avoiding damage on the feet as he absorbs less than three significant strikes per minute. The one major knock on him is his cardio, as he doesn’t seem to be nearly as effective in the third or even second rounds of his fights. This is likely the result of his kill-or-be-killed style, which has done him more harm than good at the UFC level. Giagos will be live for an upset early here, but I see the more well-rounded and measured Glenn starting to pick him apart as this fight wears on. As long as he survives the first round, I expect Glenn to win convincingly. Ricky Glenn by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Jeremiah Wells -110 vs Matthew Semelsberger -110

Anthony: The main card begins with welterweights Matthew Semelsberger and Jeremiah Wells. This should be a very fun fight with each man on a bit of a heather as of late in the UFC. Since joining the promotion Wells is 3-0 with each victory coming by way of finish. He has solid striking but the best part of Wells’ game is his offensive grappling. It is no surprise the guy has great jiu jitsu, constantly rolling with excellent teammates at Renzo Gracie Philly. Semelsberger is known to shoot for an occasional takedown of his own, but I imagine the plan today is to let his hands do the talking. The beatdown Semelsberger put on Jake Matthews in his last performance really opened my eyes to his ceiling. I love his aggressive nature on the feet and the constant pace he likes to maintain. Sometimes Semelsberger may be a bit reckless but I do think he wins a dirty fight against Wells here today. Not only does he appear to have a huge edge striking, but the last two grapplers Semelsberger drew into went to sleep inside of twenty seconds. I think Semelsberger gets the job done and at pick em odds I am locked in backing him. Matthew Semelsberger by Round Two KO
Nick: Jeremiah Wells is another fighter that likes to come out aggressive and try to end things quickly. We saw this fully on display in his impressive UFC debut, a KO upset victory as a +190 underdog against Warlley Alves. He’s an extremely powerful striker, but we have yet to see him extended past the second round in the UFC. He most recently KO’d a durable Court McGee, so there is certainly no denying he carries momentum into this match-up. Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights via early KO. He’s 5-2 so far in the UFC, coming off an extremely impressive win as a +240 underdog against Jake Matthews. He does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat and while there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. Semelsberger has continued to show improvements everywhere. I actually expect he might be the better wrestler in this match-up and while both of these fighters like to chase the early finish, we have seen Semelberger’s cardio hold through a three round fight. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I’m siding with Semelsberger. Simply, he has more paths to victory than his opponent. Matthew Semelsberger by Decision

Jasmin Lucindo -350 vs Brogan Walker +265

Anthony: This should be a fun back and forth at women’s flyweight between Jasmin Lucindo and Brogan Walker. Lucindo really was a star in her UFC debut, a great matchup striking with Yazmin Jauregui. She clearly had been working on her technique between fights as a much tighter guard and better movement helped her stay very competitive opposite the rising star from Mexico. At just 21 years old there is a very bright future ahead of Lucindo. I expect her to largely control this fight in the upright striking exchanges. Walker has shown a deficiency in her defensive grappling but Lucindo does not appear to be the type to shoot to make takedowns of her own. We see prolonged periods of kickboxing between these two women and it will be up to Walker closing the gap and landing shots that can change this fight’s trajectory. From the southpaw stance I could see Walker connecting and finding herself a knockdown, but Lucindo likely looks the superior fighter over the course of fifteen minutes here today. Jasmin Lucindo by Decision
Nick: Jasmin Lucindo is coming off a loss in her UFC debut, but her stock went up in that match-up as she went to war in a tight decision loss against an extremely talented prospect in Yazmin Jauregui. Lucindo showed outstanding durability in the pocket, and her gas tank held strong as she landed nearly 4.5 significant strikes per minute in that fight. Brogan Walker is coming off a loss to a very raw opponent in Juliana Miller. Walker is a decent striker at range, but she doesn’t throw much volume and she tends to throw single shots rather than extended combinations. She does decent work grappling against the cage, but most of that success has come against a low level of competition. Lucindo can be a dangerous submission grappler if this fight hits the mat, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling ability to take the fight there consistently. It seems much more likely that she’ll do what she can to keep this fight standing, where she’ll have a dramatic technical advantage over her opponent. Jasmin Lucindo by Decision

Bobby Green -275 vs Jared Gordon +215

Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight scrap between Jared Gordon and Bobby Green. We saw Green knocked out by Drew Dober to close his 2022 campaign, a year that he went 1-2. I really like the activity of Green and was pleased with his performance against Dober prior to seeing him get clipped. Gordon meanwhile returns from a loss to Paddy Pimblett by controversial decision. He did well in that bout negating the offense of Pimblett and wearing his man down against the octagon side. I could see a similar game plan for Gordon here today as he faces a much more dangerous striker. Green is very quick with exceptional head movement and overall striking defense. His boxing is going to give Gordon a lot of trouble and while Gordon does have power, nobody in this division is afraid of his hands. I am not going to invest heavily in Green here at the -275 price. He is the rightful favorite, but in a bout very likely to see the judge’s scorecards I am not interested in laying such significant juice. We could be in for a Fight of the Night depending on Gordon’s urgency to engage inside the clinch. Bobby Green by Decision
Nick: Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights outstriking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume with decent power on his shots, and he does a good job stringing together effective combinations. Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, but he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of dangerous exchanges. He is most recently coming off an ugly KO loss to Drew Dober, a fight he was dominating early before he got too comfortable and caught by a durable and dangerous opponent. Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off a controversial decision loss to the popular Paddy Pimblett. That loss came in a fight the majority of fans and media members thought he should have been awarded the win. He works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. In this particular matchup I expect Gordon to try to mix in his grappling, but Green has an excellent 72 percent takedown defense. Additionally, I expect Green’s speed and technical prowess on the feet to overwhelm GOrdon in exchanges. I don’t want to overinvest here as Green likes to play with his food. Still, he’s very clearly the side in this one. Bobby Green by Round Two KO

Brad Tavares -165 vs Bruno Silva +135

Anthony: The co-main event is a showdown at middleweight between Brad Tavares and Bruno Silva. This is a good matchup testing each man after losses in their most recent outings. I find Tavares to be the much more technically skilled fighter, having a very diverse attack on the feet and good understanding of all positions. Silva is a tough opponent, often looking to brawl and successfully clipping his opponents. He has performed sporadically in the latter half of fights but early on he has proven to be very dangerous. Tavares had to battle through adversity when facing Dricus Du Plessis last summer. I feel he will need to do the same here today, likely landing a more sustained attack than Silva but getting his chin tested in doing so. Tavares can hopefully control the distance in this bout and get his hand raised with a large majority of minutes won. He seems like a solid bet at the current odds of -165. Brad Tavares by Decision
Nick: Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with nineteen of his twenty-two professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. Brad Tavares is a talented vet who has been ranked at middleweight for years,coming off a hard fought decision loss to Driscus Du Plessis. He does a good job mixing in leg kicks to keep his opponents at range. He works well behind his jab, he throws meaningful shots and we’ve seen his chin tested on multiple occasions. Tavares is a solid wrestler as well, but similarly to Silva it is very rare we see him rely on that part of his game. Silva is the more potent finisher in this matchup. However, Tavares likely has considerable technical advantages on the feet. This is another close match-up, but I’ll side with the more refined skills of Tavares over the course of three rounds. Brad Tavares by Decision

Curtis Blaydes -165 vs Sergei Pavlovich +135

Anthony: The card ends today with an epic showdown between heavyweight title contenders Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich. While Pavlovich has quickly stormed up the rankings of this division, Blaydes has defended his spot atop the heap with three consecutive victories. Pavlovich is very tough to deal with thanks to his superb boxing and incredible reach. Nobody at heavyweight can match his 84” measurement apart from the champion Jon Jones. Pavovich is extremely comfortable trading blows in the pocket given the fact his punches are often going to be the ones landing first. An aggressive approach is once again likely here as Blaydes has fallen victim to the early KO in several bouts before. Pavlovich will look to get into a brawl early and extend his streak of first round knockouts to a whopping six in a row. Blaydes should dominate this bout if he can successfully drag Pavlovich to the mat and negate his striking offense. He averages more than two successful takedowns per round and I see Blaydes working his way into the clinch with urgency as these two fight in the small cage. Of course I am concerned about Blaydes getting clipped but he is one of my favorite bets today. These odds are simply not where they should be in my personal opinion. He will surely look like a -400 favorite if successful scoring takedowns or getting into the late rounds here. He can only eat a few clean shots but thankfully Blaydes defends nearly 60 percent of opponent strikes. I like his experience in main event fights and he certainly owns the better resume compared to the Russian. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO
Nick: Blaydes is primarily a wrestler and one of the best heavyweights in the world in terms of grappling ability. He has excellent takedown entries and averages more takedowns per minute than any other heavyweight in UFC history. He continues to show considerable improvements on the feet, but he’d be wise to return to his roots in this particular match-up. Pavlovich has an extremely powerful left hand. He does a good job setting it up behind his jab and while he isn’t very fast, he is deceptively explosive for a heavyweight. Pavlovich is 17-1, with all seventeen wins coming via KO. He is coming off a career best victory over Tai Tuivasa, and prior to that he scored KOs over tough vets in Derrick Lewis and Shamil Abdurakhimov. This is a tough fight to call as Pavlovichl is still somewhat unproven. He’s likely going to have considerable power advantage in this match-up and he’ll be extremely dangerous in striking exchanges. That being said, he’s never faced a grappler on the level of Blaydes. Pavlovich is certainly live for the upset KO here, but I feel it’s more likely Blaydes scores the takedowns he needs to wear on his opponents gas tank and eventually take him out with ground and pound. Curtis Blaydes by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com