UFC 286 Analysis

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman III – 3.18.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3. From the O2 Arena in London England, we are treated to a stacked card and one epic trilogy fight to decide the welterweight world title. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 57-39-2 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 68-28-2 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-18-2023 at 1am EST

Early Prelims- Start 12:30pm EST

Juliana Miller -450 vs Veronica Hardy +330

Anthony: The card today begins with women’s flyweights Juliana Miller and Veronica Hardy. This is the first fight for Hardy, formerly Veronica Macedo, in over three years. She is 1-4 since joining the UFC and has yet to really display any exceptional skill. There is however a chance we see a new and improved version of Hardy tonight. Her striking has always been solid and prolonged exchanges versus Miller on the feet could end up going the way of the Venezuelan. I just fear that Miller is far better than Hardy on the mat, ultimately deciding the outcome of this battle. She is an elite grappler training at 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu and winning a majority of her fights thanks to her BJJ. I was very impressed by her showing on The Ultimate Fighter Season 30, and the finish of Brogan Walker to win that tournament last summer. I like how active she has been and Hardy will likely find herself taken down quickly against a rangier and more aggressive foe. Hardy has just 46 percent takedown defense over her career. This is not a great matchup stylistically and Miller should come through as the sizable favorite. Juliana Miller by Round Two Submission
Nick: Juliana Miller is an aggressive BJJ player and very tall for the division. She’s extremely raw and lacks technical ability on the feet, but she’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. While her striking is far from refined, she almost always puts out consistent volume. Her cardio has been solid and her BJJ is surprisingly advanced for a 26-year-old. Veronica Hardy will be returning to the cage here for the first time since March of 2020. She struggled to close the distance against Bea Malecki in that fight, but she had been dealing with concussion symptoms in that spot, the same symptoms that led to her lengthy time out of action. Hardy is fairly well-rounded, but she is most credentialed in taekwondo where she carries a blackbelt. She’s a decent grappler offensively, but she seems to get caught at times if she finds herself on bottom of her opponents. Macedo is going to be the better striker in this match-up, but Miller’s toughness should allow her to close the distance here regardless. The line has gotten completely out of hand here as Miller is still mostly unproven, but it feels like the UFC is looking to set her up with the first win under the promotional banner. Macedo has a shot here, but it seems fairly likely she’ll start to fade until Miller can take over. Juliana Miller by Round Two Submission

Ludovit Klein -195 vs Jai Herbert +160

Anthony: Next is a fun battle at lightweight between Ludovit Klein and Jai Herbert. It is a clash of high action strikers that seems likely to produce a finish. Money has come in on Klein from the start of the week and he is ultimately going to be my selection. I find his kickboxing more technically sound than that of Herbert who is a bit more volatile and defensively reckless. Klein generates more consistent power shots and has the better arsenal of attacks than Herbert, specifically when it comes to his kicks. Herbert is a big lightweight benefiting from a five-inch reach advantage tonight. He’s more boxing oriented than Klein but Herbert has quick hands and applies good pressure when moving forward. He will be dangerous jumping on Klein early and perhaps finding a knockdown, but over the course of three rounds the more skilled striker should prevail. Herbert only lands with 41 percent accuracy while striking, a stat that is unsustainable facing someone with intelligent volume like Klein’s. Herbert is also someone who has fallen victim to the knockout on quite a few occasions before. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO
Nick: Herbert is a former Cage Warriors Champion with decent BJJ, but his most recent wins have come via strikes on the feet. He’s most comfortable fighting in the clinch with a strong muay-thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. Klein is fairly advanced technically for a 28-year old. He has decent grappling, but the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, which was evident in his most recent fight, an upset win over Mason Jones. Herbert is going to have a reach advantage here and his power in striking exchanges is certainly enough to potentially pull off the upset. That being said, I see Klein as the better technical fighter with more paths to victory. As long as he stays safe early, I expect Klein can outclass Herbert on his way to another win. Ludovit Klein by Decision

Joanne Wood -180 vs Luana Carolina +145

Anthony: This is a women’s flyweight matchup between Luana Carolina and Joanne Wood. Carolina seems to be a very mediocre addition to the roster, going 3-2 since joining the promotion. Her wins have come against lackluster competition while the losses for Carolina have appeared quite embarrassing. Despite all of this she is a live underdog today, facing an opponent who seemingly has one foot out of the door. Wood has lost in four of her previous five fights with the only victory coming versus Jessica Eye. She is no longer willing to tough her way out of positions she is vulnerable, as had been the case in her earlier career. I could see this being her retirement fight win or lose, in front of the home crowd supporting her. Still, she is the more polished striker on the feet and holds a decisive advantage over Carolina in most clinch positions. We will likely see a good chunk of this fight controlled by Wood and I really do not see her struggling unless Carolina can land the jab in every minute of these first two rounds. I just refuse to bet on her given the recent showings we have seen. Joanne Wood by Decision
Nick: Wood has a solid thai-clinch and is a solid striker overall. She has more power than a lot of the other girls in this division, but her volume is what usually helps her win when her fights hit the scorecards. She came into this fight off of three consecutive losses, but each of those losses came to a future title challenger or title holder at 125 pounds. Carolina does her best work striking at range. She’s going to have a considerable reach advantage here, but she doesn’t really carry the type of power it would take to keep Wood from closing distance. The key to this match-up will likely be Carolina’s ability to keep this fight standing and out of the clinch. She has decent takedown defense, but Wood is likely effective enough on the feet that she should be able to set up timely entries if she chooses to. Wood is certainly the better fighter here, but I don’t recommend betting heavily on her as it seems likely she could be retiring after this fight regardless of the outcome. Joanne Wood by Decision

Jake Hadley -400 vs Malcolm Gordon +300

Anthony: Next is a bout at flyweight between Jake Hadley and Malcolm Gordon. Yesterday at weigh-ins we saw Gordon the only fighter to miss, coming in more than three pounds heavy. It has been a mixed bag for Gordon since joining the UFC but it appears safe to say he has outperformed expectations. His grappling is at a very high level as evidenced by his three-round fight with Muhammad Mokaev, and quick finish of Denys Bondar. Hadley should feel comfortable on the mat here with Gordon but I do worry about him outperforming this underdog price tag. He is live to win by submission or even simply control a smaller Hadley, as Alan Nascimento proved capable in his first career loss. However, Hadley is rightfully favored in this spot given the advantage striking he possesses. He has proven much better on the feet than Gordon, landing with more and threatening with the more diverse attacks. I see him cruising to victory here in front of the English fanbase if he elects to keep the feet and strike. He is also just as live as Gordon to finish this fight with a submission of his own. Jake Hadley by Round Two KO
Nick: Jake Hadley is 1-2 in the UFC, but many feel he still has a high ceiling as a prospect. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, most prominently in Cage Warriors where he captured the flyweight title. He’s a talented grappler with dangerous BJJ but his striking seems to be a work in progress. Hadley’s takedown defense seems flawed as well, but he has solid enough BJJ to work himself into favorable positions against inferior grapplers. Gordon is an aggressive striker with decent defensive wrestling ability. That being said, he is old for the division and it seems he doesn’t really carry any standout skills. Additionally, Gordon doesn’t wear damage well and we’ve seen him rocked in many of his fights regardless of the respective outcomes. Gordon’s aggressive style should provide openings for Hadley to score takedowns here. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Hadley take him out on the feet. Hadley is the better technical boxer in this match-up, the more athletic fighter and the more dangerous finisher overall. The line is getting out of hand, but Hadley is clearly the side. Jake Hadley by Round Two KO

Christian Leroy Duncan -220 vs Dusko Todorovic +175

Anthony: Next is a middleweight bout between Dusko Todorovic and Christian Leroy Duncan. It’s the UFC debut for Duncan who enters as an undefeated professional, fighting out of the Cage Warriors promotion. He is a creative and powerful striker with a massive frame for this middleweight division. I love everything about Duncan in terms of his offense. He has exceptional footwork, very fast hands and already extremely refined kickboxing. His previous two wins are also vicious stopping Djati Melan by flying knee and Marian Dimitrov by spinning elbow. Todorovic is a forward pressure fighter, throwing with less power but higher volume than Duncan. He will be looking to close distance and wear on Duncan in this particular spot, but I predict he gets clipped quite a bit on the way in. He has been finished quickly in all three professional losses and none of the wins for Todorovic are overly impressive. Beating Maki Pitolo and Jordan Wright doesn’t make me confident he last with a rising prospect such as Duncan. I think a star is born here tonight with Leroy Duncan securing a very early finish. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round One KO
Nick: Christian Leroy Duncan will be making his UFC debut here as the Cage Warriors Middleweight Champion. He is 7-0 professionally, with six of those wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. Dusko Todorovic is a powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws dangerous combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. Todorovic has a considerable experience advantage here, but Leroy Duncan will have the technical advantage on the feet. I also expect Todorovic to struggle with Leroy Duncan’s speed and athleticism here. Todorovic could pull off the upset if he chooses to lean on his grappling in this spot, but it’s very rare we see Todorovic do anything but stand and trade. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round One KO

Lerone Murphy -180 vs Gabriel Santos +145

Anthony: The early preliminary portion of the card ends when Lerone Murphy faces Gabriel Santos. I find this a very compelling scrap with Santos making his short notice UFC debut. The 26-year-old is coming off two impressive victories on LFA, punching his ticket onto the big stage with a perfect record of 10-0. He is a great striker with incredible power for a featherweight, clearly hurting opponents with every shot that lands clean. While he can likely hold his own kickboxing for fifteen minutes with Murphy, I really do think a technical skill gap exists. Murphy has now been in the UFC for five years and enters this matchup on a full training camp. He has also never lost as a professional. Defending 62 percent of opponent strike attempts leads me to believe he can survive early against Santos and pull away as this one goes late. He was originally slated to face a much tougher test in Nathaniel Wood. Lerone Murphy by Decision
Nick: Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with an 11-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last three fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Gabriel Santos will be making his UFC debut here as the LFA Featherweight Tournament Champion. He has notable wins over José Delano, Elvis Brener, and Márcio Barbosa. At just 26-years old he’s already putting together a decent resume, but this is certainly a major step up for him in terms of level of competition. Santos is aggressive on the feet and it seems he’s an effective offensive grappler as well. I expect him to look decent early here, but taking this fight on short notice it seems likely he’ll start to fade in the second and third round. Santos is a talented prospect, but this feels like a bit too much too soon. I expect Murphy to outclass him here on his way to another win. Lerone Murphy by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Muhammad Mokaev -900 vs Jafel Filho +550

Anthony: The preliminary card begins with the return of Muhammad Mokaev facing Jafel Filho. This is the debut for Filho who looks to dethrone one of the flyweight division’s fastest rising prospects. He is a jiu jitsu practitioner, training at Nova Unão and accruing some impressive wins on the Brazilian regional scene. While he does well setting up shots and controlling opponents on the mat, that will not be the case here against an athlete as talented as Mokaev. The undefeated Mokaev is not only an elite grappler but one of this division’s quickest and most precise strikers. He should use his length well, picking apart Filho on the feet and tearing him up early with knees and kicks. Filho will certainly shoot for takedowns here, I just wonder if they will be intelligent shots or those out of desperation after getting sparked early on. Mokaev has a knack for wrapping up chokes of his own and I see a multitude of potential finishes available to him here. I expect a dominant performance from him once again. The last time Mokaev competed at the O2, he finished Cody Durden in less than one minute. Muhammad Mokaev by Round One KO
Nick: Mokaev is a highly regarded flyweight prospect, born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 amateur record. He’s 3-0 under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking for his fourth win here against a dangerous debutant in Filho. Jake Filho will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO over Roybert Echeverria. Filho is 14-2 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and eight via submission. He’s an athletic prospect who I expect can hang on the roster for a while, but he’s running into a buzzsaw here in a super prospect in Mokaev who is fighting in front of his home crowd. Mokaev is a high-level wrestler who can push an aggressive pace for a full three rounds. He is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, and so far in the UFC he is averaging just under nine successful takedowns per fight. He continues to show improvement on the feet, but his greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability as four of his eight professional wins have come via submission. I expect Mokaev to control this fight no matter where it goes. He’ll have to be careful early, but this is his fight to win. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Two Submission

Sam Patterson -285 vs Yanal Ashmoz +225

Anthony: This is a fight between lightweights Sam Patterson and Yanal Ashmoz. It should be a fun visual seeing these two clash, with Patterson six inches taller and benefiting from a nine-inch edge in reach. He has some great weapons on the feet and rather crisp kickboxing. I give him the advantage striking in this fight not only due to his physical gifts, but also his defensive awareness compared to that of Ashmoz. The Israeli fighter has gotten hit a ton in his most recent showings. He is largely sharing the cage with low level competition and yet he only remains undefeated due to a hyper aggressive style, and a bit of luck. He is scrappy and certainly worth a look at underdog odds but I rate Ashmoz a bit too reckless for my particular liking. While I do believe Patterson has a bright future in the promotion, this is a volatile matchup and I don’t feel comfortable investing a lot of money on him. My play for this fight will be the u2.5 rounds expecting Ashmoz to chase a finish and get caught moving in. He will have a very tough time closing the distance here with the looping attacks he often tends to throw. Sam Patterson by Round Two KO
Nick: This match-up features two UFC debutants at 155 lbs. Sam Patterson is coming off an impressive Contender Series win via submission over Vinicius Cenci. His striking defense was somewhat suspect in that match-up, but he showed excellent overall durability and aggression. Patterson is 10-1-1 professionally, mostly fighting for a solid regional promotion in BRAVE FC. He’s decent everywhere with a solid choke series and creative striking offensively, but he’s certainly rough around the edges and still developing as a prospect. Yanal Ashmoz will also be making his debut here, and he enters the promotion with little notoriety. He’s fought for decent promotions like PFL in the past, but he hasn’t been tested against top level competition. Ashmoz seems decent everywhere, but he’s slow in his movement and he’s only found success against low level opponents. This is a low confidence play as both of these fighters are relatively unknown, but Patterson seems to be the more promising prospect. Sam Patterson by Round Three Submission

Omar Morales -110 vs Chris Duncan -110

Anthony: Next is a lightweight matchup between Chris Duncan and Omar Morales. As the pick em odds indicate, this bout is one of the toughest there is on the card to call. Duncan is making his promotional debut after going 1-1 on Dana White’s Contender Series. He got signed his last time in the cage, but did get knocked out initially making an appearance against Viacheslav Borshchev. He is a well built striker with great power for this division. Duncan does well from both the southpaw and orthodox, throwing explosive attacks and closing the distance quickly on opponents. His ability to switch stances allows him to find entries into the pocket that opponents struggle to defend. Morales is the much more well rounded and steady fighter, but also a bit harder to rely on in a brawl. He has been finished in both previous appearances and while I do favor him in a fight that goes the distance, it will be a challenge for him to survive that long. Give me Duncan here in what I consider a true coin flip. Neither guy is all that impressive upon watching a few fights back. Chris Duncan by Round Two KO
Nick: Morales is an effective striker that does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations. He trains out of an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC. He is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career and he’s been out of action since he fell via KO to Uros Medic back in May of 2022. He carries a black belt in BJJ, but there’s no denying he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. Chris Duncan will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive comeback win on Contender Series over Charlie Campbell. Duncan was almost KO’d early in that fight, but he shot for a takedown before he was finished, ultimately recovered relatively quickly and then found a timely KO of his own. Duncan’s hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. I expect Duncan can be dangerous early, but Morales’ technical advantages should keep him out of significant danger. Omar Morales by Round One KO

Jack Shore -500 vs Makwan Amirkhani +350

Anthony: The featured prelim is a featherweight matchup between Jack Shore and Makwan Amirkhani. Shore appears primed to bounce back today after suffering his first professional loss in his last octagon appearance. Ricky Simon proved to be the better grappler than Shore, but that is unlikely the case here in this bout. Amirkhani is very takedown dependent and Shore defends more than 80 percent of his opponent’s shots. Mr. Finland has secured a submission in twelve of his seventeen total victories, but now appears far less effective grappling in his late career. He is on a 1-4 losing skid. Amirkhani’s cardio is also very poor, usually only having the strength needed to grapple hard for one full round. If Shore is successful defending the early takedown attempts, he will cruise to victory and look every part of the -500 price tag we are getting. His striking fundamentals are way better than Amirkhani despite having far less total cage time. Jack Shore by Round Two Submission
Nick: Makwan Amirkhani’s greatest strength is his outstanding BJJ, as 12 of his 17 professional victories have come via submission. He usually looks excellent early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he starts to fade as his fights wear on. Jack Shore is primarily a grappler and he comes into this match-up with a solid 16-1 professional record. He has a solid wrestling base with an excellent gas tank and he continues to show considerable improvements in his striking. Shore is content to stand and trade, but his chain wrestling is what has led him to most of his wins professionally. He is coming off the first loss of his career to Ricky Simon, so he’ll be moving up a weight class here to 145 lbs in hopes of improving his power and conditioning. Amirkhani is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Shore will be cerebral enough to stay out of danger. I see Amirkhani’s cardio once again proving to be his downfall as Shore gets back in the win column at 145 pounds. Jack Shore by Decision

Main Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Marvin Vettori -275 vs Roman Dolidze +215

Anthony: The main card begins with a middleweight bout between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. This is a great test to see where both men find themselves here in a competitive division’s top fifteen. Dolidze has been streaking as of late, winner of four in a row and compiling three finish victories in 2022. Dolidze’s best attribute is his grappling. His most recent appearance was a finish of Jack Hermansson that saw the Joker left completely helpless on the mat, mounted and caught in a calf slicer. The fight prior also saw Dolidze’s slick jiu jitsu on display, tearing up Phil Hawes’ knee quite badly before returning to the feet and knocking him clean out. He will likely try to test Vettori’s 74 percent takedown defense, but Dolidze is immensely improving on the feet between each octagon appearance. Vettori’s constant forward pressure and volume could leave Dolidze largely on the defensive here, I just think a few big strikes getting Marvin’s respect completely change this bout’s trajectory. Vettori usually asserts himself over the course of five rounds, simply outworking opponents and displaying cardio and durability that not many others possess. Those attributes get diminished quite significantly in a three round fight and for that reason I find it hard to believe Vettori sits so prohibitively favored. I would say -300 makes sense if this were to be a five round scrap but tonight, I like Dolidze’s chances of winning a bout that goes to the judge’s decision. He is the bigger and more explosive athlete. Not only does Dolidze hit harder than Vettori but he is also the larger threat to find a finish on the mat. Roman Dolidze by Decision
Nick: Marvin Vettori is still only 29 years-old and outside of his most recent loss to Robert Whittaker, he seems to get better every time we see him fight. Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability. Vettori is coming off a career worst loss to a very tough opponent in Robert Whittaker. Whittaker picked him apart at range in that right, but he’s likely to be the more technically sound striker in this match-up against Dolidze. Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was the owner of his own small gym before the move, this camp shift should help him improve considerably in each fight moving forward. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. This was evident in his most recent fight, an upset of Jack Hermannson. I see Dolidze as a live underdog, especially early. However, if he can’t find a quick finish I expect Vettori to outclass him no matter where this one goes. Dolidze is a finisher and Vettori has never been finished professionally. I expect Dolidze to fade after an early barrage. Marvin Vettori by Round Three KO

Casey O’Neill -185 vs Jennifer Maia +150

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup between Casey O’Neill and Jennifer Maia. This is a good draw for the up and coming O’Neill as she breaks into the division’s top ten. She is undefeated, representing Scotland but training full time at Xtreme Couture. Her most recent performance was a drubbing of Roxanne Modafferi, a bout where O’Neill displayed her high volume attack and good awareness in a variety of positions. On the feet she should have the edge here in terms of speed and precision, but Maia does pack a punch. Solid boxing is really all there is to discuss with Maia at this stage of her career, but the style of fight she often finds herself in leads to close decisions. She is just way less accurate than O’Neill and lands an average of more than four strikes fewer per minute. It is a matchup likely made by the UFC to promote the oncoming talent and say goodbye to a 34 year old Maia that certainly fits the description of a gatekeeper. I am expecting one way traffic for a large part of this one. Casey O’Neill by Decision
Nick: Casey O’Neill has trained at excellent camps in Tiger Muay Thai, Xtreme Couture and 10th Planet BJJ. She has won each of her first four UFC match-ups via finish and she’ll be looking to climb the rankings here with a win over a proven vet. O’Neill’s striking is certainly far from refined, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. Her most applaudable asset is her powerful wrestling base and her overall strength at 125 pounds. O’Neill has been out of action since February of 2022, having had knee surgery and rehabbing for the better part of the past year. It wasn’t until recently that O’Neill began being taken seriously as a contender in this division, so this spot against Maia should serve as the perfect barometer for the trajectory of her career moving forward. Maia was completely outclassed when she took on the champion Valentina Shevchenko, but she did have a few positive moments and she even stole a round as a +1000 underdog. While she lost convincingly, she did look a lot better in that match-up than anyone really expected. She is 2-2 since that title fight, coming off a convincing decision win over Maryna Moroz. It feels like the UFC is looking to set O’Neill up with a win here, but I’m not entirely sure she’s going to be able to dictate the pace of this fight. I’ll take a small shot on the underdog here as it seems she’s being a bit disrespected by bookmakers. Jennifer Maia by Decision

Gunnar Nelson -390 vs Bryan Barberena +310

Anthony: The featured bout is at welterweight with Bryan Barberena taking on Gunnar Nelson. We saw Nelson secure the win in his return from hiatus last spring, beating Takashi Sato here at the O2 arena. However, it had been a rather underwhelming showing with Nelson doing little to threaten Sato whilst accruing eight minutes of control time on the mat. He is with no doubt a talented submission grappler, I just want to taper expectations with him sitting a -390 favorite tonight. Barberena has played spoiler on a few occasions before and he certainly figures to have an advantage striking against Gunni. While Nelson has good awareness on the feet and a solid base in karate, I think he has issues dealing with the power and volume of Barberena in this spot. He should instead elect to shoot early, facing an opponent who defends just 54 percent of attempted takedowns. The last appearance for Barberena came in December with Raphael dos Anjos winning by submission in the second round. In that bout RDA landed four takedowns and further illustrated a deficiency in Barberena’s defensive grappling. Nelson should stick to his usual gameplan here and likely find success taking down Bam Bam. Gunnar Nelson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Gunnar Nelson is an extremely talented grappler who has been in close fights with many of the big names at 170. He fights out of an open karate style stance when he’s striking at range, he has solid entries for takedowns and on the mat his BJJ is as dangerous as anyone’s in the division. Similarly to Nelson, Bryan Barbarena has fought some of the toughest welterweights in the UFC. He’s primarily a brawler. While it is evident he’s past his prime, he’s still very dangerous when striking at range or out of breaks. The biggest knock on Barberena is his inability to defend takedowns, which is likely to prove detrimental to him in this specific match-up. Nelson should be able to hang on the feet here long enough to find clean entries for takedowns. Once this fight hits the mat, I expect he can find a finish with relative ease. Gunnar Nelson by Round Two Submission

Rafael Fiziev -240 vs Justin Gaethje +190

Anthony: The co-main event is an awesome scrap at lightweight between Rafael Fiziev and Justin Gaethje. I am expecting a real brawl here between two of the division’s nastiest strikers. Fiziev is a real marksman, throwing a high volume muay thai attack and a steady mix of unorthodox strikes. He is far more skilled technically than Gathje, largely due to a divide in speed and defensive awareness when comparing the two. Fiziev does far better keeping himself out of an opponent’s range for long, unlike Gathje who is always content to stand directly in the pocket. Gathje is however accustomed to the brawl and I could see him fairing well here against an opponent that will be attempting to finesse him in kickboxing. Gathje has natural power and one of the division’s best chins. He should connect with more damage than Fiziev in this fight even if striking differential were to sway the opposite direction. Gathje also throws everything into his low leg attacks and I expect him to chop away at Fiziev’s base early. Making this a high pace war will favor Gaethje as a hurt of fatigued Fiziev will be less mobile and less likely to land the pretty combinations he has flashed as of late. I understand why he is the favorite in today’s matchup but my pick is Gathje here in what I expect to be a close three rounds of action. Justin is 4-2 as an underdog in the UFC with both losses coming in fights for the lightweight championship. Justin Gathje by Decision
Nick: Justin Gaethje is a brawler. His kill-or-be-killed style has landed him Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses in eight of his ten bouts in the UFC. He’s continued to improve in terms of his technical ability, but there’s no denying his will to engage in a dangerous firefight. Gaethje has been out of action since he lost via submission in a title fight to Charles Oliveira. While it’s tough to get too hard on him for that result, it’s a bit concerning that Oliveira managed to drop him with strikes before securing that choke. Oliveira’s striking has improved a lot over his UFC tenure, but he’s nowhere near Fiziev in terms of technical ability. Rafael Fiziev is a former striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. He has ridiculous head movement and throws extremely powerful punches and kicks. He is a problem for anyone in this division when it comes to fighting on the feet. He has knockout power in all of his limbs and his grappling seems to improve every time we see him fight. He’s coming off impressive wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Renato Moicano, Bobby Green, and Brad Ridell. With another win here, he can cement himself as a future title contender. Gaethje is one of the more dangerous underdogs on this card, but I’m not confident in his ability to win a technical striking battle in this match-up. If he chooses to wrestle here he’ll have an even clearer path to the upset, but it’s very rare we see Gaethje shoot for a takedown. The line feels a bit wide as Gaethje has been tested against better competition, but this feels like two fighters headed in opposite directions. I expect Fiziev to land the cleaner shots and he could even put Gaethje away late. Rafael Fiziev by Round Three KO

Kamaru Usman -250 vs Leon Edwards +200

Anthony: The night concludes with an epic trilogy bout between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman deciding the world welterweight championship. Edwards’ title win last year was that of a Rocky movie, shocking everyone with a fifth round head kick that stole victory from the jaws of defeat. While it was a good showing for Edwards early in that second matchup, Usman was able to prove he is the more technically skilled fighter and a far superior grappler than Leon. He threw and landed three times the strikes and accrued ten minutes of control time before getting put out in the fight’s final minutes. Usman is favored once again here but it is clear Edwards has the potential to win decisively. His striking is more fluid and powerful than that of Kamaru, largely due to his frame and the style he has always implemented. There are very few southpaws quite as dangerous as Edwards. He can really become a problem when he gets confidence, throwing more in combinations after he quickly establishes his range. Often Edwards will take large leads out of the first round after flicking out a jab and landing with high precision while his opponents largely focus on their defensive shell. His confidence should be at an all-time high, making the walk last here with a title belt wrapped around his waist. I expect Usman to get revenge today by simply fighting the style matchup he is safest. Rather than competing for long at kickboxing range, Usman should be glued to Edwards utilizing his wrestling, clinch strikes and grappling along the octagon. He has proven capable of neutralizing Edwards before and I think he makes the conscious decision to fight safe to take back his belt. There won’t be any opportunities for Edwards to land another “lucky” shot if Usman is on top of him or pursuing takedowns for a full twenty five minutes. That is exactly what I expect the lifelong wrestler to do. And New. Kamaru Usman by Decision
Nick: Edwards will be defending his title here, against the same man he took it from back in August of 2020. Kamaru Usman was winning most of that fight, but Edwards dug deep with less than a minute left in the fifth round to catch Usman with a well-timed head kick and become the champion via KO. Including his most recent victory to capture the title, Edwards has strung together ten consecutive wins. He’s a gifted striker that does an excellent job of moving in and out of his opponents’ range. His wrestling has undoubtedly improved since the first time these two squared off, but there is no doubt that his best chance to pull off another upset here is to mostly keep this fight standing. Primarily a wrestler, and a dominant one at that, Usman has shown both excellent defense and a chin on the feet. Since he began training under an excellent striking coach in Trevor Wittman, his jab and his overall boxing ability seems to improve every time we see him fight. I don’t really think Usman is anywhere near Edwards in terms of offensive striking ability, but he doesn’t really need to be in this spot. Edwards will find his shots, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep Usman from ultimately pressuring him up against the cage and down to the mat. No matter how you slice it, Usman has the clearer path to victory here. He has no reason to stand and trade with Edwards for an extensive period of time and it seems very clear that his advantages on the mat are still greater than Edwards’ will be in exchanges. Additionally, Edwards will have to constantly be alert in case Usman shoots for a takedown. This could prevent his striking from really opening up to the best of his abilities. This fight should be competitive early, but I’m siding with Usman. He is the more well-rounded fighter, the more potent finisher. Edwards caught Usman last time out, but I don’t see lightning striking twice. And New. Kamaru Usman by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com