With the Super Bowl behind us, teams are forced to move on from the 2022 season and look towards 2023. In a series of articles, we’ll recap the past season, and look at how teams are positioned at their skill positions for next September.
Buffalo Bills
Projected Cap Space: -18.73 Million (per Spotrac)
Upcoming Draft Picks: Round 1 (27th), Round 2 (59th), Round 3 (91st), Round 4 (128th), Round 5 (135th) (from Arizona), Round 5 (160th)
Despite finishing the season 13-3, the Bills have to be disappointed with their 2022 campaign after losing to the Bengals in the divisional round of the playoffs. Touted as one of the deepest rosters in the league after adding key free agents in the offseason, including upgrades on both the offensive and defensive lines, 2022 had a strong Super Bowl or bust feel to it for the Bills. Falling short of that goal has to sting one of the most loyal (and rambunctious) fan bases in the league. Thankfully their championship window is still open, so there is nothing left to do but move on to the 2023 season.
Coaching:
Sean McDermott, the Bills defensive minded head coach will lead his team for the seventh straight season when the 2023 campaign begins. With a head coaching record of 62-35 and only one losing season on his resume, McDermott deserves patience as he tries to guide the Bills over the hump and into their first Super Bowl since 1993.
Ken Dorsey was tasked to fill the large hole left by the departure of Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator in 2022. Daboll is often credited with the growth and development of Josh Allen while he was the OC, leaving the team with big shoes to fill. The offensive numbers didn’t falter much in Dorsey’s first season after being promoted from quarterbacks coach, although some late season gaffes by Josh Allen lent credit to the belief that Daboll was key in keeping the gunslinger in check. Dorsey is a talented coach, and despite some growing pains in his new role he should learn from this season and be back to lead the prolific offense in 2022.
While Leslie Frazier was expected to back as offensive coordinator for the Bills, it was recently announced that he will be taking the year away from football before returning in 2024. While no immediate plan has been announced as to who will fill that role in the interim, McDermott’s background as a defensive coach leads many to believe he will take over the play calling duties in 2023. Frazier has run a notoriously aggressive style of defense since his hiring in 2017, and the duo of Frazier and McDermott turned what was once a laughable defense into one of the top units in the league. Whoever steps up in his absence will be hoping for better health luck and will have to find a way to create more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks:
2018 7th overall pick Josh Allen raised some questions regarding his ability to be a viable starter in his rookie year with the Bills. Five seasons and one massive contract extension later, and those who dared to ask those questions are hiding the evidence. Allen has thrown for 35 or more touchdowns and surpassed 4,000 yards in each of the past 3 seasons, while raising his completion percentage from a miserable 52% to a respectable 63%.
He’s also a major threat on the ground, surpassing 700 yards each of the past two years. He has a tendency to go big play hunting which led to a few costly turnovers in late season games, but his ability to turn those types of plays into something positive is worth the risk. While Buffalo no longer gets to enjoy his excellence on a rookie scale deal, his play is worth the cap hit. Having him signed until the 2028 season leaves the championship window open for the Bills.
Matt Barkely enters the 2023 season as his only backup, and while reliable in a pinch, look for the Bills to bring on another veteran or re-sign Case Keenum for clipboard duties.
Wide Receiver/Tight End:
Coming off his 3rd straight Pro Bowl selection since being traded to the Bills, Stefon Diggs is the unquestioned leader of the wide receiver group. Ranked 5th overall at his position by Pro Football Focus, Diggs can continue to be relied upon to surpass 1,200 yards, 100 receptions and double digit touchdowns. He’s the type of #1 receiver that’s the envy of many teams. His contract ends after the 2027 season so the only question with Diggs is how long he will be able to outrun father time as he enters his 30’s.
Unfortunately the rest of the depth chart has been plagued by inconsistency. After breaking out in the 2021-22 playoffs, big things were expected from Gabriel Davis. With Diggs continuously facing double teams (and often beating them), Davis was expected to handle a larger load and really help take this offense to the next level. He has games where he looks unstoppable, including a 171 yard 2 touchdown effort against the Steelers, but has way too many contests where he’s just invisible, going for less than 60 yards in 11 regular season matchups. As he enters a contract year he’ll hope to show more than just flashes of the deep threat talent he so clearly possesses.
Isaiah McKenzie also returns on a contract year to fill the slot/ WR3 role, but his flashes are fewer and farther between than those of Davis.
Rookie turned Sophomore Khalil Shakir might be a name to watch heading into next season. The 5th round pick got off to an expectedly slow start, but really looked like he was figuring out the offense down the stretch and could move into an elevated role in 2023.
The Bills aren’t losing any wide receivers of note, and will likely rely on internal development and the lure of free agency to improve an already explosive offense.
At tight end, Dawson Knox returns to solidify the tight end position . While he consistently plays around 80% of the offensive snaps, the offense tends to avoid the tight end like the plague as Knox has yet to surpass 50 receptions in any season of his career. The talent is there, and it will be up to Dorsey to draw up plays to get him more involved, as I doubt the Bills signed him to a massive 4 year contract extension to stay in and block play after play.
Bills WR @stefondiggs is frustrated with Buffalo's lack of playoff success. (@HBOTheShop)
“It doesn’t make sense. I’ll rack my brain with this sh-t at this point. Why sh-t ain’t coming together?"pic.twitter.com/naPN7eWVVW
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 10, 2023
Running Back:
Devin Singletary enters 2023 as an unrestricted free agent, and I doubt the Bills pull out too many stops to retain him. The 2019 third round pick never cemented himself as a true #1 lead back for the Bills, topping out at 870 rushing yards in 2021.
Moving on from him will be much easier after the Bills drafted James Cook in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. The younger, more explosive back made the most of his touches, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per touch. Although the Bills rely heavily on the pass game, and Josh Allen steals a lot of thunder on the ground with his rushing ability, Cook can bring them a dangerous home run element that Singeltary just doesn’t have in his repertoire.
Nyheim Hines will return to spell Cook in the backfield and offer his reliable 3rd down pass catching ability after being acquired in a mid-season trade with the Colts. The Bills have two key pieces in the backfield and will just have to go bargain hunting for reliable backups to fill out the remaining roster spots.
Offensive Line:
Guard Rodger Saffold leads the list of pending offensive line free agents after finishing up his one year deal that he signed in the summer of 2022 to help shore up the line at right guard. He played 100% of offensive snaps in all but 4 games this season, although he didn’t grade particularly well playing between solid center Mitch Morse and standout left tackle Dion Dawkins. I doubt either side will be in a huge rush for a reunion in 2023. The rest of the starters along the line return, although after giving up 33 sacks this season the group can certainly stand to improve if they look to finally get to the Super Bowl.
Defense:
The Bills will be making some tough decisions on defense this season, as they’re already up against the cap and have some key players entering free agency. Tops among those are standout safety Jordan Poyer and linebacker and defensive leader Tremaine Edmunds. The Bills will also be hoping for better health on the defensive side of the ball, as Tre’Davious White’s season didn’t get underway until week 11 as he recovered from a torn ACL, and Von Miller left that same week with an ACL tear of his own.
White has elite level talent at the cornerback position and can be counted on to shut down half the field when healthy. After Von Miller’s injury, the Bills got next to nothing when it came to the pass rush, and it cost them in the playoffs against a slew of second string Bengal lineman. Joe Burrow had plenty of time to work in the pocket without being touched, so finding some pass rushing help has to be a priority for the Bills this offseason.
Gregory Rousseau will look to continue his development after an 8 sack season, but players like Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips, who were expected to contribute, haven’t offered the team much. The Bills will have some cap constraints to overcome if they want to retain and add key players on defense and maintain their status as one of the top defenses in the NFL.
The Bills entered 2022 as preseason superbowl favourites, and looked to have one of the deepest rosters in the league. That only amounted to one playoff win, and now that Allen’s extension has kicked in, it will be harder for the Bills to go out and add to the team in free agency. That being said, as long as Josh Allen is on the field, the Bills have a chance to win every game. If they can stay healthy on defense and McDermott is able to return the unit to its top 10 status, they’ll enter 2023 with the same Super Bowl or bust mentality.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.