The Ottawa Senators were done. Mired in another early season slump, fans were ready to burn down the front office and coaching staff. A busy offseason generated excitement in a market that was starving for a contender, but less than 20 games into the 2022-2023 NHL season had Senators fans eyeing the draft lottery for a 6th straight year.
But it’s a long season.
In a stacked division and conference, the Senators are firmly in the middle of the pack with about 30 games remaining. They sit 7 points outside of the last playoff spot but have games in hand on the teams they’re chasing.
Still, the fan base seems divided. With the March 3rd NHL trade deadline looming, the Senators appear stuck in the middle of the classic buyers and sellers market.
I’m going to make the exciting case for what the Senators should do at the deadline: nothing.
Meaningful games down the stretch
As previously mentioned, Senators General Manager Pierre Dorion had a fantastic off-season bringing in pieces like Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux and Cam Talbot. Along with the exciting young core that was already in place, this created plenty of buzz in Ottawa and around the league, with playoff hopes higher than they’ve been since training camp in 2017.
But surprisingly, Dorion tried to douse the flames with his external expectations for the group. He claimed he wanted the Senators to be playing meaningful games by the trade deadline. No mention of playoffs, top 3 in the division, etc. He was very careful in choosing his words and it looks like it paid off.
This is still a very young team, and they hit some road bumps in November (again). But, as of FEBRUARY 15th, the Sens are certainly not out of the playoff race.
So based on the expectation Dorion had for this group, I would imagine this qualifies as meaningful games at the trade deadline. The Sens are a competitive team that can beat anybody on any given night, and look to be getting more confident game by game.
If they declare themselves as sellers at the deadline, that will indicate to the fan base that Dorion and his staff believe this season has been a complete failure. I’m not sure if I’m ready to stamp that label on it just yet.
Not much to sell anyways
Let’s say the Sens hadn’t been on a roll in February and were losing their footing in the standings. Then it would make sense to move their pending unrestricted free agents for as many assets as possible. Sens fans don’t need a run down on this given they’ve been sellers for 5 consecutive seasons.
On their roster today, here are the pending UFAs:
Travis Hamonic
Cam Talbot
Nick Holden
Tyler Motte
Austin Watson
The most attractive option for other NHL teams is likely Talbot. While he’s out with a lower-body- injury at the moment, it appears like he’ll be back in game action prior to the deadline. Regardless, the most the Sens could get back for Talbot is likely a 2nd round pick, at best.
That isn’t exactly an asset that will move the needle for this core down the line, and this is all without mentioning the elephant in the room: Anton Forsberg’s gruesome injury.
After tearing both MCLs, Forsberg is out for the season. So if the Sens move Talbot, they’ll be forced to rely on rookie goaltenders Mads Soogard and Kevin Mandolese. They fared well in their first games of the season, but odds are they won’t be able to keep up the stellar play for the rest of the campaign.
The optics of selling your undisputed #1 goaltender with the position the team is in wouldn’t be great, to say the least. I can get on board with trading guys like Hamonic and Holden, but realistically whatever draft picks are fetched for players like that are going to end up as career AHLers, if the Sens are lucky.
Key takeaways from Pierre Dorion avail:
• Alex DeBrincat is not on the market ahead of deadline. (He didn’t elaborate on contract negotiations)
• Travis Hamonic also won’t be traded before deadline
• Josh Norris had surgery and expected to be ready for Sept. camp— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) February 16, 2023
Starving fan base
This is the most important aspect to consider when discussing the plan for this team down the stretch. It’s a biased opinion, but it’s hard to find another fanbase in the NHL that has been so starved for a good hockey team for an extended period (Buffalo probably takes the cake, but they’re in a very similar position as the Sens this season).
Part of what made Dorion’s offseason so successful was how it re-engaged the fan base. The late owner Eugene Melnyk had a turbulent relationship with supporters and did very little to improve his image across the city. After he passed away, the mending of bridges off the ice and on ice was almost instant.
If the Sens start selling pieces from the everyday roster, what kind of message are you sending your fans? That a couple of 5th round picks in 2025 are more important than icing a competitive team?
On the flip side of things, last season’s exit meetings with captain Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot reportedly featured some very honest discussions between the front office and the two leaders. Tkachuk and Chabot are in the midst of their 5th and 6th seasons, respectively, yet have not had the chance to push for a playoff spot after the deadline at any point in their careers.
For years they’ve watched teammates and friends be shipped out the door for picks and prospects, most of whom haven’t made an impact at the NHL level. Eventually, enough is enough and you have to let your core players prove that they can take the next step.
Pierre Dorion is certainly aware of this, but he has some tough choices to make. In all likelihood, the Sens will miss the playoffs. But they aren’t bad enough to come close to a chance for Connor Bedard, and it’s still a deep draft. Hanging onto their 1st round pick will help bolster the prospect system while also showing the fans and players that they believe this team can make a push.
A lot can happen in 30 games, but the Senators don’t even need a Hamburglar-type of a run to make the playoffs. They just need to avoid losing streaks and continue to string wins together down the stretch.
-Jack Richardson
Twitter: @jackrichrdson
Photo: Bri Weldon. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.