The Ottawa Senators will face a tough decision next summer as Alex DeBrincat’s contract expires and he becomes a restricted free agent. The 25-year-old was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks at the 2022 NHL draft in exchange for the 7th and 37th overall selections, along with a 2024 3rd-round pick.
Early on in his Senators career, DeBrincat has taken his time to settle in. But as we sit here nearly halfway through the 2022-2023 season, it’s clear that DeBrincat is a great long-term fit with this young Senators core.
With that being said, what will his next contract look like? Let’s take a look at all of the different factors that General Manager Pierre Dorion needs to consider in the upcoming negotiations:
On Ice Fit
The addition of DeBrincat turned heads all around the NHL. The Senators had already built up a promising young core including Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot. The prospect of adding a two-time 40-goal scorer who was just entering his prime seemed like a pipe dream, but Dorion made it happen.
As previously mentioned, it took DeBrincat time to settle in. Getting traded is difficult and DeBrincat seemed pretty shell-shocked when it happened. But as the season has progressed he’s looked more and more like the player that lit up the NHL for the last 5 seasons.
The top-6 forward group in Ottawa took a hit when Norris went down with a shoulder injury on October 24th, a centreman whom DeBrincat was developing some decent chemistry alongside. While he struggled to find his groove at 5v5 after the injury, he started gelling with the top powerplay unit. It took some time, but the Senators’ powerplay is currently the 4th best in the NHL at 28.2%.
DeBrincat is a large part of that, leading the team with 19 powerplay points. Since November 25th, DeBrincat is second in team in scoring with 18 points in those 15 games. The Senators’ record over that stretch is 9-4-2. It’s no coincidence that team success has correlated with DeBrincat’s production. The argument could be made that over the last few games, he has put himself into the conversation for the team’s MVP (Tkachuk takes the cake so far, but DeBrincat is pushing).
Alex DeBrincat set an Ottawa Senators record by assisting on 6 consecutive goals.
Erik Karlsson previously held it at 5 goals.
Unreal.#GoSensGo
— Jack Richardson (@jackrichrdson) December 17, 2022
Regarded as a goal scorer, DeBrincat now sits 2nd on the Senators with 22 assists, on pace to shatter his previous career high of 37. The goals are also starting to come more frequently for the sniper, with goals in back to back games now, and the shootout winner over Boston last night.
He recently had his 8-game point streak snapped, but DeBrincat is finding his offensive groove which has significantly bolstered the Senators’ offence. When considering the on-ice fit, there’s no question that Alex DeBrincat makes the Senators an elite offensive team.
Team Contract Structure
This is the business side of things when considering a potential extension for the Michigan native. DeBrincat has a qualifying offer of $9 million, meaning any potential extension would likely start with that number as the AAV. If DeBrincat elects to only sign a 1-year deal, he can walk himself right into free agency in the summer of 2024.
The problem is that the Senators will be under a cap crunch next season. With the report that the salary cap might only increase by $1 million next season, there will be some tough decisions to make.
Stützle’s $8.35 million cap hit kicks in next year, as does Artem Zub’s new $4.6M deal. Meanwhile Cam Talbot will also be up for a new deal as well.
However, this past offseason is a great example of how a player in DeBrincat’s position can actually have more leverage than we think. Matthew Tkachuk just orchestrated his way out of Calgary because he didn’t see a long-term fit. Obviously, DeBrincat’s situation in Ottawa is much different than Tkachuk’s in Calgary, but contractually, it’s a very similar scenario.
That aside, the Senators will need to answer some internal questions as well. Their pay structure is currently set up as follows in terms of cap hits until the 2026-27 season:
Stützle: $8.35M
Tkachuk: $8.2M
Chabot: $8M
Norris: $7.95M
Batherson: $4.95M
The Senators have clearly set an internal power ranking of which players they value over others. The question next summer will be: is DeBrincat more valuable than Stützle and Tkachuk? Currently, it’s hard to argue that he is.
However, the fact that this is probably going to be the largest contract DeBrincat signs in his career – if it is in fact a long-term deal – means the Senators need to be prepared to pay up. All the players listed above signed those lucrative contracts coming off of their entry-level deals, but DeBrincat did not. The Senators’ internal depth chart will surely be brought to light once these contract negotiations begin.
Prediction
I think DeBrincat will end up being the highest-paid Ottawa Senator. However, I don’t think he’ll see his AAV hit $9 million. I’m predicting an 8-year deal worth $67.6 million. That would give him an AAV of $8.45 million, $100,000 higher than Tim Stützle, to make DeBrincat the highest-paid player in Ottawa Senators history.
The reason this makes sense is because of the impending sale of the franchise. For decades, signing bonus money hasn’t been something the Senators could even consider, even as it became a typical trend in the NHL. With 2023 likely to bring forward a new ownership group, the potential for signing bonuses to be given out in Ottawa is much more likely.
Pierre Dorion would be wise to push a contract with lots of upfront money on DeBrincat’s camp in an effort to lower the cap hit on a long-term deal.
Time will tell how the contract negotiations play out, but one thing is clear: Alex DeBrincat is the perfect addition to this rebuild, and a long-term extension would solidify that.
-Jack Richardson
Twitter: @jackrichrdson