UFC 282 Preview & Predictions

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev – 12.10.2022 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 282: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev. This is the final pay-per-view in what has been a year full of exciting shows for the UFC. It’s headlined by a matchup of light heavyweights for the vacant title. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 306-177-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 307-176-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-10-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Cameron Saaiman -350 vs Steven Koslow +260

Anthony: The card today opens with a bout between undefeated bantamweights Cameron Saaiman and Steven Koslow. Both men enter a perfect 6-0 as professionals. Saaiman is an exciting prospect fighting out of South Africa. He is 21 years old and has thus far showcased excellent kickboxing and very good offensive grappling in his young career. He had originally been scheduled to face Ronnie Lawrence at this event but received news of an opponent change a mere ten days ago. I like his chances a lot here against Koslow but find it hard to get involved at the current odds. This will likely be a fight with early takedown attempts and scrambles, initiated largely by Koslow. I think Saaiman lands the cleaner strikes and controls most positions when the fight does hit the mat. Cameron Saaiman by Round Two Submission
Nick: Cameron Saaiman will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over another talented prospect in Josh Wang-Kim. Saaiman weathered an early storm from Kim in that spot, ultimately outclassing him everywhere and earning a contract in convincing fashion. Steven Koslow will also be making his UFC debut here as well, with a 6-0 record fighting for Combat Night Pro. All six of Koslow’s professional wins have come via submission. He has a lot of amateur experience, training primarily as a grappler for 10th Planet BJJ. It’s tough to get a good read on Koslow here as his regional film is scarce. However, it seems as long as Saaiman can mostly keep this fight standing he should win convincingly. The price is inflated given all of the unknowns, but Saaiman is the pick. Cameron Saaiman by Round Two KO

Erik Silva -115 vs T.J. Brown -105

Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Erik Silva and T.J. Brown. This is one of the toughest bouts on the card to predict with odds near pick’em all week. It is the debut fight for Silva after putting on a show this August with Dana White’s Contender Series. He is a very serviceable grappler but I really like the hand speed and striking arsenal Silva has at this stage of his career. It’s a tough test for Brown who I seem to overrate a bit. However, the wrestling heavy approach he tends to employ should work to great benefit today. He is peaking alongside Bryce Mitchell this camp as they have primarily been training with one another. I think we see those rounds on the mat pay dividends today as he takes down Silva more than once. He seems to be the grittier fighter and I like his chances here at pick em odds in what is likely a sloppy fight. T.J. Brown by Decision
Nick: Erik Silva is another fighter making their UFC debut on this card, coming off a Contender Series win via ground-and-pound KO in the first round over Anvar Boynazarov. Silva is an impressive debutant and 9-1 professionally, but he’s already 35 years-old so he’s going to have to fight frequently if he has hopes of becoming a true contender.Silva is a talented grappler with creative and dangerous BJJ. He has surprising strength for a featherweight. His striking is far from refined, but he has explosive power, especially at range and coming out of breaks. TJ Brown is fairly well-rounded, but he is extremely inconsistent. He has sneaky power for a featherweight, but he takes a lot of damage in exchanges. Brown is primarily a grappler who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes. That being said, he’ll need to be careful here against a dangerous submission threat in Silva. Brown will have an experience advantage here. I also expect him to be more technically sound on the feet. That being said, he really isn’t the finisher that Silva is. This should be a highly contested matchup, but I see Silva’s hunger to finish ultimately securing him a win in his debut. Erik Silva by Round Two Submission

Billy Quarantillo -175 vs Alexander Hernandez +140

Anthony: This bout between Billy Quarantillo and Alexander Hernandez will also take place in the featherweight division. Hernandez successfully made the cut to 145 pounds for the first time in nearly ten years. He had limited success in the UFC’s lightweight division and this move could be beneficial given his frame and power. He certainly packs a bigger punch than Billy Q, but he does not absorb strikes quite as well. I think we see Quarantillo land more punches at a higher pace than Hernandez over the course of this bout. While Hernandez is live for the early knockout, I see Quarantillo pulling away as this fight goes late. He lands nearly 8 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 3.97 of Hernandez. I am betting him at this number anticipating a stand up fight. Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Nick: This is one of the more exciting fights on the card, and certainly a contender for Fight of the Night. Alexander Hernandez was once considered a future top contender. He’s a powerful striker who is fairly well-rounded, but lately he seems to wait for fights to come to him. He’s moving down to 145 for the first time in his UFC career, but he did look excellent at weigh-ins, so there’s a chance this was the right move for him at just 30-years old. Hernandez has KO power on the feet, he’s a decent defensive grappler but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. Quarantillo, like Hernandez, pushes an outstanding pace. Thirteen of his sixteen professional victories have come via finish, and while he’s been known as a slow starter, he is also known for his knack for finishing fights in the later rounds. He throws a lot of volume in exchanges, which was evident in his last fight against a really tough out Shane Burgos. Quarantillo lost via decision in that spot, but he landed more than 160 strikes across the fifteen minute fight. Hernandez is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Quarantillo to endure that initial surge until he’s able to weaponize his cardio and take this one late. Billy Quarantillo by Round Three KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs Chris Curtis +135

Anthony: Opening the prelims on ESPN2 are middleweights Chris Curtis and Joaquin Buckley. It is a great clash between fighters that have had a significant rise these past few years. Curtis suffered a loss against Jack Hermansson in his last showing, ending an eight-fight win streak. He is a very reliable fighter, keeping a steady pace on the feet and patiently waiting to find his openings. He has the better technique in terms of boxing and kickboxing compared to Buckley, although each poses a large power threat on the feet. Buckley primarily inflicts damage blasting heavy attacks at a more vague target. He also is persistent moving forward and closing distance quickly when he feels more action is warranted. At these odds I feel him to be a bit overvalued as he seems more apt to rush and make mistakes than his opponent. I think Curtis can outwork Buckley in this spot and take home the victory late. Since joining the promotion he has averaged 6 significant strikes landed per minute. Chris Curtis by Round Three KO
Nick: In spite of his recent loss to Nassourdine Imavov, it seems the UFC is still behind the marketing and promotion of Joaquin Buckley. He’s far from a developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing the majority of his skills, but at just 28-years old he should continue to improve. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. That being said, he seems overly hesitant at times, he is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Buckley to fight his type of fight. Curtis is at his best when he’s in close boxing range. This is a tough fight to call and one I can see going either way, but I’m siding with Curtis. He’s simply more experienced and technically sound on the feet, I don’t imagine Buckley will have much success at boxing range and Curtis has shown dramatically improved takedown defense recently. Chris Curtis by Decision

Edmen Shahbazyan -300 vs Dalcha Lungiambula +240

Anthony: Next is another bout at 185 pounds with Edmen Shahbazyan facing Dalcha Lungiambula. I am tempering my expectations for this scrap as both men enter on 0-3 losing streaks. Shahbazyan has fought some studs in this division but it is certainly deflating to drop that many bouts after starting a career 11-0. This is a good opportunity to bounce back into the win column as he faces a vulnerable opponent in Dalcha. We saw Lungiambula get finished twice in 2022, getting choked by Cody Brundage and knocked out cold versus Punahele Soriano in July. I do not think he has much room for improvement at 35 years of age and on this lackluster skid. There is no way I can take Edmen straight at -300 but Shahbazyan by knockout is a prop I am interested in. While neither man is known for their cardio I think Shahbazyan will struggle quite a bit more if this fight sees a third round. He will need to find a finish early. Edmen Shahbazyan by Round Two KO
Nick: Shahbazyan is one of the more intriguing up-and-comers at middleweight. He’s only 25, but he’s already shown flashes of elite level striking and a serious ability to finish fights early. While his striking seems to be his greatest strength, Shabazyan also has a Brown Belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. He was once considered a future top contender at 185, but he is now coming off three losses. He always seems to look good early in his fights, but his gas tank seems shallow at best. Lungiambula is another fighter that comes in with questions surrounding his cardio. He looked fine at weigh-ins for this fight, but if he can’t end things early there’s a good chance he starts to fall apart in the later rounds. He’s a monster in terms of his physical frame, but his excessive muscle makes it difficult to stay fresh as the fight wears on. Lungiambula has enough power and explosiveness to take almost anyone out via KO. He has a solid Judo base, but he seems rigid in the cage and can sometimes be sluggish in exchanges. Shabazyan recently shifted camp to one of the best gyms in the world at Xtreme Couture. I expect we see major improvements from him here as he gets back in the win column via KO. Edmen Shahbazyan by Round One KO

Jairzinho Rozenstruik -175 vs Chris Daukaus +140

Anthony: This should be an exciting fight between heavyweights Chris Daukaus and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. After a great start to his UFC career, Daukaus has been knocked out in back-to-back fights by some of the division’s best. Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis quickly proved that they were levels above Daukaus in their recent matchups. Now he draws another top tier opponent in Jairzinho Rozenstruik. While Bigi Boy has also been on a bit of a skid, he is still one of the scariest strikers in this division. He went 76-8 as a kickboxer with 64 victories by knockout. It only takes one shot from Rozenstruik and he is very patient hunting for the opening he needs. Somebody with the speed and efficiency of Daukaus could certainly capitalize on Rozenstruik’s low output. However, he also will need to survive long enough in the pocket to land those blows. With a suspect chin and another monster standing across from him, I advise staying away from Daukaus here. He is the lighter man by nearly twenty pounds. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO
Nick: Rozenstruik is well-rounded, but he’s most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. Daukaus has fast hands for a heavyweight. He’s a bit undersized for the division, but he’s been continuously adding bulk and muscle and it seems that he’s only going to continue to build into this frame. Daukaus is going to have a speed advantage here. He’s far from a physical specimen, but he’s already in much better shape than he was when he made his UFC debut and his quickness can definitely be weaponized here against a fighter in Rozenstruik who can be plodding on the feet. That being said, Rozenstruik feels like the side here. Even as he continues to put on mass, Daukaus is undersized for the division. Rozenstruik is the more durable and dangerous striker and this is a fight I expect to primarily take place on the feet. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round One KO

Raul Rosas -250 vs Jay Perrin +200

Anthony: The prelims close with bantamweight Jay Perrin facing the 18 year old prospect Raul Rosas Jr. This kid is the true definition of a prospect being 6-0 and already competing in the world’s top promotion. He is a very slick grappler with confidence in his skills everywhere the fight may go. Some of the feints and techniques we see already out of Rosas makes him certainly seem to have a ceiling that is sky high. Perrin is one of the easier draws the UFC could provide Rosas just given the discrepancy of skill on the mat. I am not sure a fighter his age should warrant a price like this but tonight he should make things look easy if successful getting Perrin engaging in some jiu jitsu. Perrin will be looking to strike with Rosas and I think that gets quickly shut down. Raul Rosas by Round Two Submission
Nick: Raul Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He’ll be making his promotional debut here, having just turned eighteen in October. He’s coming off a Contender Series win over a tough out in Mando Gutierrez. A fight in which he leaned on his grappling to dominate for almost the entirety of fifteen minutes. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ. Perrin is fairly well-rounded, but really hasn’t had much success against top level competition. He seems rough around the edges when you watch him on film, but he has a decent wrestling base and solid counter-striking ability. Perrin is coming off back-to-back UFC losses, and he’s another fighter that seems to be fighting to stay on the roster here. Perrin will be Rosas Jr.’s toughest test to date, but it’s a test I expect he’ll pass. Perrin has just a 64 percent takedown defense in the UFC in spite of the fact he hasn’t fought any grapplers anywhere near as aggressive as Rosas. Raul Rosas by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Ilia Topuria -165 vs Bryce Mitchell +135

Anthony: We start the main card with a clash between undefeated fighters Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria. It is rare to see such exciting prospects square off with one another and this should be an action packed fifteen minutes between them. While I have backed Mitchell in all six of his UFC appearances, his most recent showing was even one that surprised me. Outwrestling and outstriking a man like Edson Barboza shows just how high-level Mitchell really is. He and Topuria are serviceable in every position, but clearly Mitchell has an edge on the mat where Topuria has one on the feet. The boxing of El Matador has really been on fire. His quick finish of Jai Herbert and Montel Jackson show just how dangerous he can be when he gets throwing in combination. Perhaps my favorite attribute of Topuria is his willingness to dig the body of his opponents. While this is a very tough fight to call, I believe Mitchell gets his hand raised tonight. He is stronger than Topuria and I see him winning a lot of minutes in this fight by simply working to improve position on the mat. Mitchell has heavy top pressure and I see him hunting for a takedown not long after feeling the power Topuria carries in his hands. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
Nick: Topuria comes into this fight with a lot of momentum at an undefeated 12-0. He is an aggressive striker who packs a lot of power in his punches. He throws extremely fast combinations and his overall explosiveness has many calling him a future top contender. As good of a striker as he is, Topuria is a blackbelt with seven of his nine wins coming via submission. His scrambling ability is excellent, which is likely going to be important here against a dangerous grappler in Mitchell. Bryce Mitchell is arguably the most dangerous grappler in the world at featherweight. He comes into this fight at an undefeated 16-0, with nine of his sixteen professional wins coming via submission. He is coming off a career best win over a credential vet in Edson Barboza, a fight in which his striking seemed vastly improved in spite of a grappling heavy gameplan. This is certainly one of the more difficult fights on the card to call, but I’m siding with Topuria here. Mitchell may be the superior wrestler, but Topuria has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC. I expect this fight to mostly stay standing where he should be able to outclass Mitchell over the course of three rounds. Ilia Topuria by Round Two KO

Dricus Du Plessis -180 vs Darren Till +145

Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Darren Till and Dricus Du Plessis. It has been more than a year since Till’s last appearance when he suffered a beatdown at Derek Brunson’s hand. He has lost four of his past five showings after starting his career a very clean 17-0-1. Many are doubting Till’s durability and resilience but it is worth noting how many elite fighters he has shared the octagon with in this stretch. Du Plessis is an intimidating fighter and rising star. I really like his power and diverse skill set, confidently betting on him in all three UFC fights to this point. However, Till will be the more technical striker and I worry this could be that vintage showing the man needs. Du Plessis has very poor striking defense and a forward pressure style that could work to his own disadvantage. Till has an excellent lead hand and I see him beating up Du Plessis with jabs and counters if he is constantly rushing ahead. It is going to be a very tense fight given the power both men possess but Till seems to have a clear path to victory as the underdog. I am betting on him with the expectation he out-points Du Plessis. Darren Till by Decision
Nick: This is only Du Plessis’ fourth fight under the UFC banner. However, he already has plenty of experience as a highly regarded prospect with a fairly impressive resume at 17-2. A former KSW Middleweight Champion, Du Plessis throws a ton of volume on the feet. He has a lot in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with nine professional wins coming via submission. He averages 1.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes, but most of his success has come on the feet landing timely countershots. Darren Till is a talented striker who primarily works out of a wide south-paw stance. He does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents on the feet and landing snappy and powerful counter shots. Du Plessis is the more potent finisher in this match-up. However, Till certainly has considerable technical advantages on the feet. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. Du Plessis’ highlights have been impressive, but his KO wins in the UFC came over Markus Perez who is no longer on the roster and Trevin Giles who usually fights at welterweight. He’s most recently coming off a solid win over Brad Taveres, a fight in which he took a lot of damage and seemed to nearly run out of gas on more than one occasion.Till has excellent cardio and he’s shown that he can carry power into later rounds. It’s going to be important for Till to keep this fight standing, and I expect he can here. This is a low confidence play, but I like the value of the underdog in this spot. Darren Till by Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio -175 vs Alex Morono +140

Anthony: The featured bout is a short notice fight between Alex Morono and Santiago Ponzinibbio. It will be contested at a 180-pound catchweight as Morono steps in to replace the injured Robbie Lawler. It is a rather significant change for Ponzinibbio, drawing an orthodox fighter after training all camp for the southpaw. It would not be surprising to see him struggle with timing a bit here given that late change. Ponzinibbio also fights with a style that yields varied success. He is a lower volume striker that often hunts for a knockout with that boxing heavy approach. Morono will be happy to strike with Ponzibbio, landing with less power but putting out a much higher output. He may not be in the best cardiovascular shape given this short notice showing, but usually Morono can be relied on for a hard fifteen minutes. If the cardio does in fact check out I think he takes this matchup tonight by judge’s decision. He enters on a four-fight winning streak while Ponzibbio has dropped two in a row, both by split decision. Alex Morono by Decision
Nick: Alex Morono is taking this fight on just one week’s notice. He is coming off four consecutive wins, but there’s no denying this match-up with Ponzinibbio represents a considerable step up in competition. Given the short nature of this match-up, this fight will be taking place at 180 pounds instead of 170. Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He is now coming off back-to-back losses to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira, but both of those fights were extremely competitive and against top level competition. I expect Morono to come out strong here, but he’ll need to be careful not to get clipped when engaging with the dangerous Ponzinibbio. This should be a very fun fight and one I can see going either way, but I find myself siding with the favorite. He should be better prepared for this match-up and I see him landing the more impactful shots. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision

Paddy Pimblett -270 vs Jared Gordon +210

Anthony: The co-main event will take place at lightweight as Jared Gordon faces Paddy the Baddy Pimblett. Thus far Pimblett has lived up to the hype, delivering three finishes in his first three appearances inside the UFC. Gordon is a step up in competition for Pimblett but I still feel he is signing to fight opponents that are not quite at his level. There has been significant improvement in his striking the past few years, but his intelligence grappling may be second to none. Pimblett has explosive throws and very slick transitions that make him a nightmare to gameplan for. Gordon has very good submission defense but does cede quite a lot of control time to opponents. With just 58 percent takedown defense I see him largely fighting off sub attempts in this fight against such a high level grappler. Gordon will be looking to box and hurt Pimblett and while the fan favorite may oblige on the feet for portions of this bout, I expect him to fight smart and grapple often. This is the standard price I’ve been paying to bet Paddy and I think he is once again a good pick here at these odds. Paddy Pimblett by Decision
Nick: Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off a solid decision win over Leonardo Santos. His takedown defense is fairly average, but he does an excellent job creating space on the ground to work himself back to his feet. Gordon lands more than five significant strikers per minute, carrying an excellent +2.4 strike differential. Paddy Pimblett is primarily a grappler, and his greatest advantage is certainly his highly aggressive and dangerous style. He hunts for submissions from almost any position. We’ve even seen him score a win via Flying Triangle earlier in his career. His BJJ is certainly his greatest strength, but we’ve seen consistent improvement in his striking from fight to fight. While both of these guys have flaws in their defensive striking abilities, I see Pimblett as having the major advantage offensively. Pimblett is hyper aggressive. I expect Pimblett to look like the rightful favorite here in a fight that should mostly take place at striking range. As accomplished as he is, Gordon has gotten finished in all five of his professional losses. Paddy Pimblett by Round Two KO

Magomed Ankalaev -335 vs Jan Blachowicz +260

Anthony: This main event between Magomed Ankalaev and Jan Blachowicz will determine the light heavyweight champion. It was elevated to the top of this card after news broke that Jiri Prochazka would be vacating the title due to injury. Both men have experience going a full five rounds but a large portion of this fight camp had been under the assumption this would only go three. Ankalev is an incredibly steady fighter. His record is 18-1 with the only blemish being a submission in the final second when making his promotional debut against Paul Craig. He dominated that fight as he has most, being the cleaner fighter on the feet and engaging on the mat only as needed. His wrestling is extremely effective, but Ankalev tends to focus on kickboxing early to find his timing and range. I would love to see him take down and control Jan in this fight as it seems the safest path to victory. Glover Teixeira exposed a weakness in Blachowicz when he was put onto his back, and I think Ankalaev will capitalize. However, he is still my pick if these two go chasing knockouts on the feet. While Blachowicz has incredible power that could stop Ankalev, I think his defensive awareness is just a bit too high. Ankalaev absorbs just over two significant strikes per minute and uses his range extremely well to stay out of harm’s way. While it would not surprise me to see the former champion get his belt back, I do think Russia claims gold here this evening in Las Vegas. And new. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Three KO
Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has propelled him to the top of the division. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. He’s coming off nice consecutive wins under the UFC banner, including a second round ground and pound KO his last time out against Anthony Smith. Jan Blachowicz, is a well-rounded fighter with serious knockout power. The former light heavyweight champion has a solid grappling base, but on the ground he relies on brute strength more than advanced technical ability. Blachowicz’ chin has held up well of late and it seems he’s as good as he’s ever been. He has a powerful high kick which he used to brutalize Dominick Reyes when capturing the title and he can end a fight with any of his limbs. He can sometimes be a slow starter, which could prove troublesome here against a technical powerhouse in Ankalaev. I’ve gone back and forth on this pick and this is certainly a fight I could see going either way. However, this feels like a changing of the guard. I expect Ankaleav to mostly fight Blachowicz at range here, and to mix in his grappling if at any point he needs to. It wouldn’t shock me to see Blachowicz pull off the upset by KO, but Ankalev simply has more paths to victory. And new. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Three Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_