UFC Vegas 62 Predictions & Analysis

UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs Araujo – 10.15.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs Araujo. We have a fun slate of fights this evening as action returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 251-148-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 254-145-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-14-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 4:00pm EST

Pete Rodriguez -700 vs Mike Jackson +475

Anthony: The card opens with a bout at welterweight between Pete Rodriguez and Mike Jackson. Don’t rush to your television for this one as I expect a very low-level showing. Jackson won his first professional fight in April of this year after Dean Barry was disqualified for poking his eye. He is a long welterweight that maintains distance well given a wide karate stance. Other than that there is little to say positively about his skillset. Jackson does not take shots well and finds himself hit on the chin rather often. A boxer like Pete Rodriguez should string together punches in combination and eventually find the shot that ends this bout. There is no way I am betting on him at odds this wide but Rodriguez is clearly the more experienced and polished fighter. Rodriguez is undersized and I do not want Jackson to cost me any more hard-earned money if he does pull this off. Pete Rodriguez by Round Two KO
Nick: It’s somewhat comical this fight is taking place on a UFC card. Mike Jackson has very little professional experience. He was only on the roster to fight CM Punk back in 2018, and after that win Dana White said he’d be cut for a terrible performance. Jackson was expected to run through Punk, but he won an uninspiring decision in which he really didn’t do anything of note. He has some technical boxing ability, but he’s far from athletic. There’s really nothing about his skillset that suggests he belongs in the promotion. Pete Rodriguez is getting an excellent match up here. Rodriguez is just 4-1 against questionable competition, so he really doesn’t deserve to be fighting in the UFC either. However, he has at least shown KO power on the regional scene and he should continue to improve at just 25-years-old. This is a truly low level matchup and the line here is absolutely ridiculous. Rodriguez should win via KO here, but there’s nothing about his skill set that suggests he’s going to have much success in future matchups. Jackson could lean on a grappling heavy gameplan to make this boring and steal a win on the scorecards. However, the UFC is clearly using Jackson as a stepping stone here. I don’t see the same promise for Rodriguez that they are by making this matchup, but he should be favored. Pete Rodriguez by Round One KO

Tatsuro Taira -275 vs C.J. Vergara +220

Anthony: Next is a flyweight matchup with C.J. Vergara taking on Tatsuro Taira. Vergara was heavy on the scales yesterday by three pounds. This is his second weight missed in three UFC bouts. Now he will need to secure a near perfect victory to keep his roster spot secured. At just 22 years old, Taira is a very exciting prospect. He has been on a promising run in Japan and I am excited to see him tested here against a live opponent in Vergara. His record is a perfect 11-0. The most impressive aspect of Taira’s game is his grappling with excellent trip takedowns and powerful throws to help navigate him into dominant positions. Vergara is certainly a fighter with solid grappling too, but I do not think it compares to what we have seen thus far from Taira. Vergara will look to box and keep this fight standing but I do not think he can win the latter rounds. This will be a greasy fight but I think we see Taira take control of things shortly after engaging on the mat. I am not rushing to bet him at these odds after what was a bit of a shaky debut. However, he should pile up control time sufficient to secure another win here. Tatsuro Taira by Decision
Nick: Tatsuro Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He’s only twenty-two years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. The one real knock on him in terms of his striking is that he doesn’t really put out much volume. He seems to wait for fights to come to him, which isn’t going to work well for long at the UFC level. He is coming off a win in his UFC debut, a dominant decision win over Carlos Candelario. Taira leaned on his grappling in that matchup, controlling position for the better part of fifteen minutes. Vergara is an interesting prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He has one win and one loss so far under the UFC banner. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter. He’s fairly well-rounded, but he prefers to stand and strike. He’s going to be the better technical boxer in this matchup, but I’m not confident in his ability to keep this fight off the mat. Vergara missed weight for this matchup, which is likely a bad sign for his conditioning and overall durability. Vergara should be dangerous early, but I expect Taira to consistently score takedowns until he eventually finds a submission. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission

Piera Rodriguez -165 vs Sam Hughes +135

Anthony: This is an interesting strawweight bout between Piera Rodriguez and Sam Hughes. 2022 has been a great year for Hughes inside of the octagon. We have seen her make vast improvements striking and being more aggressive both on the feet and when engaging on the mat. Her wrestling and grappling is technically sound but she does not have the strength to find success implementing a takedown heavy approach in every fight. Rodriguez is a strong young prospect that can likely keep Hughes off of her. She is a much better striker than Hughes with great movement, heavy hands and well-timed counters. I worry about her a bit in the grappling exchanges here but I think we see Rodriguez light up Hughes on the feet. The price seems fair for an undefeated fighter training at Allstars in Sweden alongside Khamzat Chimaev. Rodriguez is a capable finisher but Hughes has proven to be very tough to dispose of. I expect a competitive fight, but one Rodriguez clearly wins. Piera Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and persistent. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any standout skills. She comes into this fight off of back-to-back wins, likely the result of the fact that she recently shifted to an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. I fully expect her to continue to show improvements under a gifted coach in Sayif Saud. Rodriguez is a tough and gritty fighter who does her best work when she can push forward and pressure her opponents. She is coming off an impressive win in her UFC debut over Kay Hansen. She outwrestled and outstruck Hansen in that spot. She faded a bit in the third round, but she won the first two rounds convincingly. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I see Rodriguez as the rightful favorite. She should be a step ahead of Hughes here no matter where this one goes. Piera Rodriguez by Decision

Joanderson Brito -400 vs Lucas Alexander +300

Anthony: Next is a bout at featherweight between Joanderson Brito and Lucas Alexander. This matchup came together on short notice after Melsik Baghdasaryan broke his hand and withdrew from his fight with Brito. I am a bit skeptical of this price tag on Brito but he certainly seems to be miles ahead of Alexander in terms of skill and experience. There are plenty of more intriguing featherweight prospects, but Brito is a dangerous Brazilian that beats most guys outside of the top twenty. He fights to his strengths, utilizing an aggressive forward pressure when striking as most do at Chute Boxe Bauru. With Alexander looking to engage primarily at kickboxing range I see the more offensive Brito getting the better of these stand-up exchanges. Normally Brito is a bit tough to trust due to his cardio and frenetic style, but I am not worried about him gassing here. Alexander cut a lot of weight on short notice and has not displayed much in terms of staying power against any upper echelon foes. Joanderson Brito by Round Two KO
Nick: Lucas Alexander will be making his UFC debut here, coming off five consecutive victories across various regional promotions. He’s primarily a striker with powerful leg kicks that he can throw from both stances. He has decent power in his punches, but he has shown lapses defensively and we really haven’t seen him tested against top level competition. Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. He throws explosive strikes, he has powerful takedown entries, and dangerous BJJ as well. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to overwhelm many of his opponents. He is coming off a career best win, a KO over Andre Fili in which he did just that. Brito sometimes shows holes defensively, but this is a step down in competition for him here. I expect him to come out aggressive and roll through Alexander for another early finish. Joanderson Brito by Round One KO

Nick Maximov -125 vs Jacob Malkoun +105

Anthony: This is an interesting middleweight fight between Nick Maximov and Jacob Malkoun. It is tough to predict what we will see here as two fighters hyper focused on offensive grappling square off with one another. Maximov saw his perfect record tarnished in his most recent octagon appearance, getting choked out by Andre Petroski very quickly. I do not see him putting his neck in danger like that again, especially against a BJJ brown belt like Malkoun. In mixed martial arts we have seen an approach by Malkoun focused on position over submissions. He could win scrambles and control Maximov for a large portion of this fight, but that is a tall task given his size disadvantage. I believe Maximov will be the much bigger man inside of the octagon. If these two elect to strike he also holds a small edge, but neither is a very explosive threat on the feet. You should expect a full fifteen minutes of action here. It would not surprise me to see a decision go either way but I got Maximov. Nick Maximov by Decision
Nick: Nick Maximov is a product of the Nick Diaz Academy. He’s a talented grappler with a powerful wrestling base and a seemingly infinite arsenal of submissions at his disposal. We really haven’t seen him tested much against a high level of competition, especially on the feet, but all signs seem to indicate he could be a staple of the middleweight roster for years to come. Malkoun is one of the smaller Middleweights on the UFC roster. Given Malkoun was the 2019 ADCC Asia trials winner and a 2019 Pan Pacific gold medalist in Jiu-Jitsu, his grappling success at this level shouldn’t be surprising. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to Brendan Allen, and he’s proven to be a much tougher out than many pegged him to be when he debuted with the promotion. In many ways, these are two very similar fighters. They both prefer to grappler, they both shoot for takedowns relentlessly and there are questions that need to be answered regarding both of their striking abilities. This fight feels like a true coin flip. I’ll take the value on the underdog to secure a decision win. Jacob Malkoun by Decision

Mana Martinez -160 vs Brandon Davis +130

Anthony: The featured prelim is a matchup at bantamweight with Brandon Davis taking on Mana Martinez. In terms of UFC appearances we have not seen a lot from either man. Davis was finished quickly by Danaa Batgerel in his debut and has been away from action in the year since. He is a solid all-around fighter with very high pressure, even for this intense division. His ability to outwork opponents and take their best shots makes him a live dog today. However, the nine losses on his resume certainly make me skeptical of backing Davis in the UFC. Martinez has very good footwork and speed attacking from both stances. He is the better boxer than Davis and punches in combination will likely be a deciding factor here. While Davis is a bit more diverse in his attack Martinez can headhunt and still dominate these standup exchanges. I see speed and precision helping Martinez to an early lead here this evening. The latter rounds could get hairy, but I anticipate Davis eating some clean shots in the first that limit his overall aggression. Mana Martinez by Decision
Nick: Martinez is a technical striker with fast twitch movement and surprising power for a bantamweight. His style is unconventional, but he does have solid footwork and he generally does a good job parrying the strikes of his opponents. Eight of his nine professional Wins have come via KO. He recently moved camps to train under James Krause at Glory MMA. Brandon Davis was cut from the UFC following consecutive losses in 2019, but he recently made his return which resulted in another loss to Batgerel Danaa. He’s extremely aggressive, well-rounded, and he’s not afraid to eat shots to throw them. His willingness to brawl makes him dangerous offensively, but it also leaves him in vulnerable positions. This should be a competitive fight for however long it lasts, but I’ll side with the power and durability advantages of Martinez. Mana Martinez by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Alonzo Menifield -200 vs Misha Cirkunov +160

Anthony: Opening the main card is a light heavyweight scrap between Alonzo Menifield and Misha Cirkunov. This can be best categorized as a bout of striker versus grappler. Menifield is a dangerous fighter at 205 pounds, throwing heavy leather and stopping numerous opponents with his punches and elbows. He has proven to be more durable than Cirkunov as evident by the recent skid the Canadian has had. Six of Cirkunov’s last eight contests have been losses, with him being finished in five of those. There is high potential that we see a finish so it makes sense Menifield is favored. However, I likely won’t be betting this fight. Menifield could certainly be outclassed on the mat by the far superior grappler in Cirkunov. The jiu jitsu blackbelt has nine submission wins on his resume and a far more threatening ground game than that of Alonzo. He is going to chase the takedown here and if able to secure it, I am expecting him to control Menifield. As much as I want to fade Cirkunov it is a tough bet to place at these odds. Alonzo Menifield by Round Two KO
Nick: Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for a light heavyweight and eleven of his twelve professional wins have come via finish within two rounds. He has not seen much in terms of quality competition yet, but he’s shown tremendous power and you can see he’s improving in pretty much every other aspect of his game. Cirkunov heavily leans on his grappling as five of his last six wins have come by way of submission. Cirkunov’s striking is decent at best. He backs up when opponents can put volume on him, but as long as he can take fights to the ground he usually ends up in the win column. He has notable victories over Nikita Krylov, Jimmy Crute and Ion Cutelaba, all of whom I consider to be more talented than Menifield. That being said, Cirkunov is currently on a three fight losing streak and he’ll likely be cut from the roster if he can secure a win in this spot. Cirkunov will be moving up to 205 here. This should improve his strength and cardio as he has described struggling to make weight at 185. This is a close one to call, but I do feel Menifield has more paths to victory. Menifield has never been submitted professionally. The line has gotten out of hand, but I expect Menifield can catch Cirkunov as he keeps this fight standing. Alonzo Menifield by Round Two KO

Victor Henry -435 vs Raphael Assuncao +320

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight with Victor Henry taking on Raphael Assuncao. Despite numerous bouts with wide odds on today’s card, the line on this fight surprised me the most. Assuncao has lost four consecutive bouts and now steps into the octagon at age forty. He is an absolute legend of the sport but it does appear that his career is coming to a close. A decline in speed and durability are the key reasons I won’t pull the trigger backing him. He still has great Fight IQ and offensive weapons, it is just apparent that most guys can stay a step ahead of him. This losing streak has come against upper echelon bantamweights but Henry is just as legit an opponent despite his lack of UFC experience. The veteran of 27 bouts seems to be a late bloomer coming into his own here after more than a decade in the sport. The output and pace of Henry will likely be too much for Assuncao to contend with for long. It is crazy he is favored so much against a man only five years his elder, but Henry seems like the play here nonetheless. And if we see a finish here I anticipate it will come late. Victor Henry by Round Three Submission
Nick: Victor Henry is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut via decision over Raoni Barcelos. He is well rounded, but he finds most of his success pressuring his opponents and wearing them down with volume. Rafael Assuncao was formerly a top contender at 135, but he seems to be in the twilight of his career. He’s managed impressive wins over fighters like Aljamain Sterling, Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Marlon Moraes. However, he’s now coming off four consecutive losses. If this fight was taking place a few years ago I expect the line would be flipped. However, this feels like two fighters whose respective careers are heading in opposite directions. Assuncao should look good early here, but I expect Henry’s pressure volume and superior cardio to allow him to take over in the later rounds. Victor Henry by Round Three KO

Dusko Todorovic -225 vs Jordan Wright +180

Anthony: The featured bout is a middleweight matchup between Dusko Todorovic and Jordan Wright. I really like what I have seen out of Todorovic thus far but durability seems to be a major issue. He may overextend himself standing in this matchup today against an opponent also perceived to have a weak chin. Todorovic throws heavy hands when standing but can often get clipped by superior practitioners. Wright is inept defensively and often pays for his mistakes in the first five minutes as well. He has never seen the seventh minute of a professional bout. It is difficult to take a side here but I can almost guarantee this stays under two rounds. Wright is much bigger and could win this fight in a lot of different ways. I see him landing clean shots on Todorovic with knees and elbows in the opening frame. If Todorovic survives that storm he will certainly clip and finish Wright not long thereafter. This is on the main card for a reason and it is because a knockout is almost surely what we will see. In such a volatile scrap I’d rather take my chances on the dog than the favorite. Jordan Wright by Round One KO
Nick: Wright is powerful and athletic, but he seems to fold when he’s met with adversity. He’s a rangy striker with true knockout power, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them, but his durability is questionable at best as three of his last four outings have resulted in losses inside the distance. Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws extremely powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. Given the lapses in Todorovic’s defense, Wright will be live for an upset in this matchup. This is essentially a matchup between two glass cannons, but I see Todorovic as the rightful favorite. He should be the more technical fighter here and he can lean on his grappling if he’s met with early adversity. I’d rather bet the Under on round props than choose a side here, but Todorovic is the pick. Dusko Todorovic by Round One KO

Jonathan Martinez -225 vs Cub Swanson +180

Anthony: Tonight’s co-main event takes place at bantamweight as Cub Swanson faces the streaking Jonathan Martinez. This is the first time Swanson has cut to 135 pounds and while he made the weight, I cannot imagine the process went as smoothly as he has made it seem. Martinez enters on a three-fight win streak. He is the much younger fighter in this bout and I expect him to match Swanson’s speed on the feet. He has exceptional striking, a lot of power and a very underrated ground game. Cub Swanson is the far more technical striker of these two. He is better at throwing in combination and landing precision shots rather than the varied and less focused attacks thrown by Martinez. Swanson has serious power too but I am not convinced his shots sting as much now as they did at 145. I think on the feet Martinez proves to be the much cleaner of these two. He uses his length well and I see Swanson struggling to find long periods of continued success against him. The odds on Swanson are juicy but I do agree Martinez is the rightful favorite here. Jonathan Martinez by Decision
Nick: He’s far past his prime, but Cub Swanson is a legend with wins over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Chad Mendes. He’s one of the more accomplished featherweights in the history of the UFC, but he’ll be moving down to bantamweight here to take on Martinez. Swanson has advanced technical ability both striking and in grappling exchanges. He has advanced BJJ, but he’s most advanced to stand and trade as his punching power is his most notable attribute. Martinez is fairly well rounded, but similarly to Swanson he mostly excels on the feet. He’s a traditional boxer with solid head movement and footwork. He throws meaningful strikes and he does an excellent job mixing up his combinations to keep his opponents guessing. He is excellent at striking heavily out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power in spite of his wiry frame. This should be a very fun fight and a competitive one as well. I could see this going either way, but there seems to be value on the Swanson side as the more powerful striker and the fighter more likely to lead the dance. He looked solid on the scale cutting to 135, I’ll back him here at dog odds. Cub Swanson by Round Three KO

Alexa Grasso -225 vs Viviane Araujo +180

Anthony: The main event is a women’s flyweight matchup with Alexa Grasso taking on Viviane Araujo. It is a fight between the division’s #5 and #6 with real title implications for the victor. Grasso has very crisp boxing and great striking overall. Her grappling leaves a bit to be desired but she can win this fight by keeping things at range and largely hitting Araujo with a constant stick and move. Things can get ugly for her in the pocket as Araujo cracks hard and can take the fight to the mat if she feels inclined to do so. It will likely be Araujo pressuring and looking to engage on the feet. Counters and well-timed forward attacks by Grasso will be what earns her minutes and rounds. I am not very confident in either side of this one, but I will lean slightly the way of Grasso. She has some star potential the UFC is attempting to market. Grasso has already fought in the co-main event six times and now headlines a card. I think she wins this fight by decision or late stoppage by strikes. Alexa Grasso by Decision
Nick: We have a close matchup here between two solid contenders at flyweight. Grasso is coming off impressive wins over Joanne Wood, Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber. She’s been showing dramatic improvements every time we see her fight, and it feels like the UFC is hoping to boost her stock as a potential future opponent for Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso is primarily a striker. She works well behind her jab. Her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Araujo should have a power advantage here. Her strikes are explosive, she has an excellent front kick and throws powerful combinations. She works well behind her jab and her footwork is advanced. She is a talented offensive grappler as a BJJ black belt, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling base or takedown ability to get the fight to the mat consistently. Grasso trains at elevation. She is going to have a significant cardio advantage in this matchup and I expect that’s the reason she secures the win. Araujo is going to look good early here, but I expect she starts to fade in the later rounds. Grasso should be able to hang until she can weaponize her cardio. Alexa Grasso by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com official fight promo poster.