Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/30) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we fell to a 51-48 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s finish the regular season strong.
Season Record: (51-48)
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
Jordan Lyles comes into this match-up with a shaky 5.19 xFIP. He’s allowing nearly 40% Hard Contact to opposing hitters this season and his 5.56 ERA sits more than two full points higher than his 3.47 ERA at Home.
This Yankees projected starting lineup has a .192 ISO against RHP this season. They rank 3rd in the MLB with a .753 OPS, first in HRs with 243, and second in the MLB with 785 Runs Scored. The Yankees have scored 5+ Runs in six of their last eight games played. I like the Over on their 4.5 Run Team Total at -120.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
Nick Pivetta has allowed at least 3 ER in three consecutive starts. He has a shaky 4.96 xFIP on the season and he’s allowing a 40% Fly Ball Rate and nearly 40% Hard Contact to opposing hitters.
These Blue Jays rank 2nd in the AL with 736 Runs Scored this season. They rank 1st in the MLB in batting average and their projected starting lineup has a 40.5% Hard Contact rate against RHP in 2022. I like the Over on the Blue Jays 4.5 Run Team Total here at an excellent price of just -120.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (+110)
Chad Kuhl has allowed 3+ ER in every start he’s made since the All Star Break. He comes into this match-up carrying a 5.44 xFIP allowing a .223 ISO to LHH and a .203 ISO to RHH. Kuhl calls Coors Field Home, but he’s actually been worse pitching on the Road this season posting a 5.84 away from Colorado.
This Dodgers projected starting lineup has a .191 ISO against RHP this season. As arguably the best offense in baseball, they rank first in the MLB with 821 Runs Scored. They also rank first in OPS with a .778 and first in SLG with a .444. The Dodgers don’t have much left to play for, but I still like the Over on their 5.5 Run team total here at +110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS