UFC Vegas 61 Analysis

UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs Yan – 10.1.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs Yan. Action returns to the UFC Apex Saturday after a weekend hiatus for the world combat sports leader. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 248-140-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 248-140-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-30-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 4:00pm EST

Randy Costa -325 vs Guido Cannetti +250

Anthony: Opening the card is a fight at bantamweight between Randy Costa and Guido Cannetti. It has been a rough few years for Cannetti as his career now comes toward a close. He did manage to earn a victory his last time out against Kris Moutinho, but I am not sure there are many other winnable fights for him in the promotion. Costa is a bright prospect with quick striking and a high motor. He pairs his boxing nicely with a wide arsenal of kicks. A large reason for Costa’s current two-fight skid has been a cardio deficit. I do not trust him as such a large favorite with fears Cannetti can survive into the later rounds here. However, the most likely outcome is an early finish for Costa who has a huge speed advantage over Cannetti. I see him fighting Cannetti intelligently at range and absorbing far fewer strikes than what he lands. This is a great draw for Costa to get back into the win column. Randy Costa by Round One KO
Nick: This should be a fun one for as long as it lasts. We have two powerful strikers here, and both of these guys like to stand and swing. All six of Randy Costa’s wins have come via knockout in the first round. He’s an extremely quick and powerful striker with explosive kicks and combinations. As impressive as he’s been, we really haven’t seen him have much success after the first round. Cannetti has the more developed skillset and the overall more well-rounded game. However, he’s much slower, older, and his cardio is a blatant weakness. I would have trouble backing Costa against an opponent with a better gas tank, but his most glaring weakness should be nullified here against the aging vet. The line certainly feels too wide, but Costa is the rightful favorite. Things could get dicey if he can’t get Cannetti out of there early, but I expect he will. Randy Costa by Round One KO

Julija Stoliarenko -125 vs Chelsea Chandler +100

Anthony: Next is a fight between women at 140 pounds with Julija Stoliarenko taking on Chelsea Chandler. This is the UFC debut for Chandler who has spent her entire career thus far fighting in Invicta FC. She is primarily a grappler who does well controlling opponents on the mat and using her jiu jitsu to set up finishes. Chandler is a BJJ purple belt under Cesar Gracie. Stoliarenko is a specialist who utilizes judo to great effect inside of the cage. Ten wins have come by way of submission for Stoliarenko with the armbar being her featured attack. This is likely a contest decided by scrambles on the mat and I feel Chandler is the better of these two defensively. She has won more fights at featherweight than Stoliarenko and the extra allowance could benefit her in the clinch today. It also seems unlikely that a grappler with her skills gets caught in such a basic attack. Chelsea Chandler by Decision
Nick: Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with good enough BJJ to score her favorite submission from a variety of positions. She is coming off her first win under the UFC banner, an armbar win over Jessica-Rose Clark. She is always dangerous if she can get her opponents to the mat, but there is no denying she’s a mostly one-dimensional fighter. Chelsea Chandler will be making her UFC debut here, coming off four consecutive wins for Invicta FC. She’s just 4-1 professionally. Her record suggests she’s inexperienced, but she shows a well-rounded game when you watch her on film. She has powerful boxing, dangerous BJJ, and her cardio seems solid as well. This fight feels like a true coinflip, but I’ll side with Chandler. I’m not very confident in her here, but she is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup and I expect her BJJ is advanced enough to avoid a Stoliarenko arm bar. Chelsea Chandler by Decision

Maxim Grishin -170 vs Philipe Lins +140

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight contest between Maxim Grishin and Philipe Lins. Both men were victorious in their only octagon appearance prior this year. Grishin is extremely talented on the feet and certainly has the power to knock out opponents at this weight. He also holds the speed advantage over most fighters in this light heavyweight division. That will be the case against Lins who is not nearly as technical or sharp a striker. While these two land the same number of significant strikes per minute, Lins absorbs nearly double what Grishin has averaged. He will need to rely upon takedowns and control time to steal this fight from the Russian. I was not impressed by Lins in his last performance and so I am fading him today. At the current odds I think Grishin is deserving of a bet given the perceived gap in skill here. Maxim Grishin by Decision
Nick: Grishin is well-rounded, but he has no singular standout still. He has refined ability when it comes to his fundamentals, but he lacks true knockout power and his offensive grappling is fairly mediocre. He works well behind his jab, but he often lacks volume or urgency in his striking. He has solid footwork and he’s accurate as well, but again – his lack of power leads to many of his fights being close and competitive. Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so at the UFC level it was wise for him to make this move down to 205 pounds. He is coming off his first win under the UFC banner over Marcin Prachnio. Lins is a decent striker who also does a good job grinding his opponents up against the cage. He has some wrestling ability, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to grapple continuously for fifteen minutes. This is another tough one to call, but I see Grishin as the rightful favorite. I expect he can manage the distance on the feet here, working behind his jab on his way to another decision win. Maxim Grishin by Decision

Krysztof Jotko -120 vs Brendan Allen +100

Anthony: One of the matchups I am most excited for takes place here at middleweight between Brendan Allen and Krysztof Jotko. Both fighters look to extend their current win streak to three. Jotko has unique southpaw striking with a kick heavy attack that causes a lot of issues for opponents. He can play the counter game well and has unusual entries that help him crash distance. One can expect him to have the advantage in most exchanges on the feet here given his excellent range management. Allen has grown tremendously as a striker but his bread is still buttered when fights hit the canvas. Jotko is a difficult puzzle to solve given his proficient grappling both offensively and on defense. Allen cannot be reckless attempting to earn a takedown or getting to Jotko’s back. Jotko has only been submitted once as a professional and that came by guillotine choke more than eight years ago. If a finish does materialize here I suspect Allen earns it, but in a bout that goes fifteen minutes Jotko will sway the judges as the busier and more effective fighter. Krysztof Jotko by Decision
Nick: Jotko is a talented striker, but he often waits for fights to come to him. He sometimes relies too much on his countering and not enough time pushing the pace or damaging his opponents. He’s a competent grappler, but somewhat limited so he mostly prefers to stand and trade. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Misha Cirkunov and Gerald Meerschaert, both via Decision. Jotko has won five of his last six fights under the UFC banner. He does a good job staying out of danger, and in most of his fights he prefers to stand and trade on the feet. Ten of Allen’s nineteen Professional wins have come via submission. He has an excellent BJJ game with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he recently shifted to an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. This is one of the more difficult fights on the card to call, but I see Jotko as the rightful favorite. He has the better gas tank and while Allen is the more potent finisher, I see Jotko as the better minute winner and I expect this one to hit the scorecards. Krysztof Jotko by Decision

Joaquim Silva -150 vs Jesse Ronson +120

Anthony: Next is a lightweight bout between Joaquim Silva and Jesse Ronson. After breaking down this fight I feel comfortable saying it is the most volatile matchup on today’s card. Silva is the favorite and considered by many to be the more complete martial artist of these two. He is extremely slick when fights hit the mat and a serviceable fighter when striking, even in a division full of killers. The unfortunate issue with Silva is it seems his chin is not what it once was. He has been knocked out in two consecutive fights, succumbing to enemy pressure and absorbing too many left hands. Ronson is the third southpaw in a row he is facing and power shots from the left side will once again play a major factor deciding this one. Even at dog money I struggle to trust Ronson given his suspect cardio and Fight IQ. However, he should be a bit more measured than Silva in his approach to closing distance here. I see him catching the Brazilian with a big shot in the early going. He is the better counter puncher. Jesse Ronson by Round Two KO
Nick: Silva is a BJJ blackbelt, but he doesn’t really have the wrestling or takedown entries required to get the fight to the mat against stronger opponents. He’s a flashy striker, but he usually only carries his power in the earlier rounds. He is coming off back-to-back losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Ricky Glenn, and he’s likely going to be cut from the roster if he can’t score a win in this spot. Ronson is coming off an ugly loss via second round submission which came against a tough out in Rafa Garcia. That was his first fight since 2020, having been suspended by USADA for a banned substance following his submission win over Nicolas Dalby. The last two southpaws Silva fought have knocked him out. Ronson just so happens to be a southpaw. Silva is certainly going to be dangerous early. However, I do expect Ronson can weather the initial storm and then catch him with a heavy shot as he starts to fade. Jesse Ronson by Round Two KO

Ilir Latifi -190 vs Aleksei Oleinik +150

Anthony: The featured prelim is a heavyweight scrap between Aleksei Oleinik and Ilir Latifi. Oleinik is a legend of the sport and somebody I have been a fan of for a very long time. He has experienced a sharp decline as of late losing three of his last four, but at the age of 45 it is no surprise The Boa Constrictor is slowing down. Latifi presents a fair challenge as he is just a year shy of 40 himself. He is not going to be visibly faster or more durable than Oleinik, but the power of Latifi is certainly a deciding factor. In a striking affair Latifi will land the cleaner and more compact strikes. I see Oleinik’s experience shining through here only if successful in getting Latifi to engage on the mat. We have seen Ilir shoot a high number of takedowns in the past and as an Oleinik backer I expect he can at one point get into his closed guard. He weighed in heavier than usual and that could play a big factor when we see these two in the clinch. After betting him at pick em odds against Jared Vanderaa, I will take Oleinik as the sizable underdog here today. Aleksei Oleinik by Round Two Submission
Nick: Latifi is a former light heavyweight, but he won’t be outsized by much here against one of the division’s smaller fighters in Aleksei Oleinik. For the first time in his career, Oleinik is coming off three consecutive losses. There’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he falls again in this spot. He’s an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ, with forty-seven of his sixty professional wins coming via submission. Latifi has never been submitted before, which should be a key for him here. He should have a cardio advantage over Oleinik and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Oleinik caught him in something early, it seems more likely that he’s able to keep this fight standing for the better part of three rounds. Oleinik could throw more volume, but I expect Latifi to land the more damaging shots. Additionally, I’m more confident in his ability to stay fresh for three rounds. Another low confidence play, but Latifi is the rightful favorite. Ilir Latifi by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Mike Davis -200 vs Viacheslav Borshchev +160

Anthony: The main card opens with a lightweight bout between Mike Davis and Viacheslav Borshchev. This is a great piece of matchmaking to truly determine the ceiling of each of these men. Davis is a fighter with much more experience than Borshchev in MMA and against top level opponents. He is not the most technical in any area, but Davis brings a well-rounded skill set and high pace into every fight. He could find success trading with Borshchev on the feet but this betting line suggests Davis will be shooting for takedowns. While Davis is not a top tier wrestler, Borshchev had no answer for the eleven shots landed by Marc Diakiese. The early takedowns depleted Borshchev and by the start of the third his cardio was completely sapped. While we could see a similar outcome tonight I do not believe these odds are warranted. Borshchev has a great room at Team Alpha Male to help practice stuffing takedowns and maintaining cardio in prolonged grappling exchanges. He is a much better striker than Davis and if he can fight this bout at kickboxing range I love his chances at earning the win. Viacheslav Borshchev by Decision
Nick: Mike Davis has been out of action since January of 2021. Davis is a technical brawler who is dangerous on the feet, with seven of his nine professional wins coming via KO. He has underrated wrestling ability as well, and his only professional losses came to extremely tough outs in Sodiq Yusuff and Gilbert Burns. At 29-years-old here it seems he’s entering his prime. Borshchev is primarily a kickboxer. He throws extremely powerful shots with all of his limbs and he seems to have excellent head movement and footwork. As talented as he is on the feet, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He recently shifted camps to Team Alpha Male to focus on his wrestling, but he’s going to have trouble against the stronger wrestlers in this division. He’s coming off an ugly decision loss to Marc Diakiese in which he was dominated on the mat for almost the entirety of fifteen minutes. Borshchev can certainly hang with Davis on the feet here, but I see Davis as the more powerful and durable striker and I also like that he can lean on his grappling if needed. I expect this to be a competitive fight early, but I see Davis taking over in the second and third. Mike Davis by Round Three KO

John Castaneda -190 vs Daniel Santos +150

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight fight between John Castaneda and Daniel Santos. Castaneda is a very good boxer who will stand and trade with anyone if he needs to. Neither one of these fighters have the best defense but Castaneda does land at a higher rate than Santos has shown. I really do not think highly of either one of these guys but there is a clear divide upon comparing the resumes of each. Castaneda has fought the much tougher competition and emerged victorious in three bouts of his last four. Santos has fought just once in the UFC and otherwise faced rather soft regional competition. He is a high motor fighter who is often reckless in his pursuit of knockouts and submissions. Castaneda should place the much better strikes here over the course of fifteen minutes, especially if Santos is walking into shots as he pressures forward. He has proven to be durable and I trust him as the favorite today. John Castaneda by Decision
Nick: Castaneda does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages distance well. He’s a competent grappler as well, coming off an impressive win over Miles Johns via submission as a moderate underdog. Daniel Santos is coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Julio Arce. Santos is extremely aggressive on the feet. He throws a wide range of spinning attacks and he’s not afraid to rush in and pressure his opponents. As dangerous as Santos is early, Castaneda is going to have a technical advantage on the feet here. I expect his experience and superior cardio to shine through over the course of three rounds. Simply, I see Castaneda having many more paths to victory in this one. John Castaneda by Decision

Sodiq Yusuff -1200 vs Don Shainis +700

Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Sodiq Yusuff and Don Shainis. The newcomer stepped in on short notice after Yusuff was originally scheduled for a tough fight against Giga Chikadze. He is a fighter from Citadel Martial Arts who has now won five in a row on the regional scene. Shainis is hyper aggressive and urgent to get his opponent out of the cage unconscious. Unless he takes a measured approach in his debut, we can expect sloppy takedown entries and reckless strikes from Shainis for as long as this bout lasts. Yusuff is the much more technical striker with legitimate potential in this 145-pound division. He is a physical specimen who has power that is difficult to match. While these odds are out of hand, Yusuff is the much better defensive fighter and he should cruise in this particular spot. This matchup is too much too soon for somebody of Shainis’ caliber. Sodiq Yusuff by Round One KO
Nick: Yusuff has outstanding Muay-Thai striking. He’s well rounded, but he’s absolutely most comfortable fighting on the feet as six of his twelve professional wins have come via KO. He has outstanding power for this division, he is excellent in the clinch as he’s highly developed in his striking abilities. Don Shainis will be making his UFC debut here, likely because he’s doing the UFC a favor by taking this fight on short notice. He’s on a five fight win streak, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Yusuff should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Shainis may have a puncher’s chance early, but that’s really it. As is evident by the line, Yusuff should dominate in this spot. Sodiq Yusuff by Round One KO

Raoni Barcelos -250 vs Trevin Jones +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight contest between Raoni Barcelos and Trevin Jones. A bit of the hype surrounding Barcelos has dissipated after consecutive losses for the first time in his career. Bettors love the Brazilian’s length, aggressive striking and elite offensive jiu jitsu. Perhaps though we are overrating some of the many wins he has accrued against lesser competition than this. Jones is a very good fighter that happens to also be on a 0-2 skid. He is one of few bantamweights that can change a fight’s outcome with a single punch. He is the underdog once again here but I think his power advantage certainly gives him a path to victory by knockout. The faster and longer Barcelos should win most exchanges on the feet but Jones’ ability to mix in grappling could be the deciding factor. He is a jiu jitsu black belt with the size to perhaps control Barcelos and advance to positions we have rarely seen him put. I do agree that Barcelos is the rightful favorite but this is a dog or pass spot. Trevin Jones by Decision
Nick: Barcelos was once considered by many to be a future top contender in this division. He’s extremely well rounded as a third-degree blackbelt in BJJ whose striking is as creative as it is dangerous. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks, which he mixes in well with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. He has an effective wrestling base as well, which he uses to tire and frustrate his opponents. As talented as he is, he is now coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his lengthy career. He’s been too content to stand and trade lately, but it seems in interviews he’s going to get back to his grappling in this matchup. Trevin Jones is extremely athletic and one of the more powerful strikers at Bantamweight. He does a good job mixing in kicks into his combinations and his grappling abilities continue to show improvement. Jones is going to be dangerous here, he’s very live for an early knockout. That being said, I’m backing the more well-rounded and technically sound favorite in this spot. I expect Barcelos to lean on his grappling more than he has been recently. Raoni Barcelos by Round Two Submission

Randy Brown -370 vs Francisco Trinaldo +275

Anthony: The co-main event is a welterweight fight between Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo. Massaranduba is a legend of the sport with a career in the UFC spanning more than ten years. He earned a victory already this year against Danny Roberts proving that he can still compete at this high-level. As a lifelong lightweight, the draws at 170 for Massaranduba have been daunting. Thus far he has looked just fine but Brown is another beast entirely. He stands six inches taller than Trinaldo and has an eight-inch edge in reach. The physical attributes are enough to overcome, but Brown is also a very powerful striker who can put combinations together. Facing a southpaw should leave plenty of openings for Brown who is the stronger and faster man. While Brown has losses against higher ranked fighters such as Vincente Luque and Belal Muhammed, he can usually handle business outside of the top twenty. I wouldn’t fade Trinaldo at odds this wide but I have a hard time imagining him earning the win here today. Randy Brown by Round Three KO
Nick: At 44-years old, Trinaldo is one of the more seasoned veterans still on the UFC roster. Almost all of his fights are close, regardless of who he’s facing. He found most of his success utilizing a size and strength advantage at lightweight, but he’s now fighting at 170 pounds. Brown is extremely well-rounded with KO power and underrated BJJ ability. He’s very light on his feet, with excellent head movement and solid overall striking defense. He works well behind his jab, and he uses his length more effectively than most other fighters with his frame. Brown is going to have a technical advantage here when this fight is standing, but Trinaldo’s power is certainly an equalizer. That being said, Trinaldo’s age is starting to show and his general lack of volume will make it tough for him to win a decision. It wouldn’t shock me to see Trinaldo score a timely KO, but Brown is the rightful favorite with more paths to victory. Randy Brown by Decision

Mackenzie Dern -240 vs Yan Xiaonan +190

Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight bout between Yan Xiaonan and Mackenzie Dern. This is the second main event for Dern who the UFC views as a future contender and marketable asset. Xiaonan provides value in the Chinese market, but I am not sure she is deserving of this platform today. In her previous two fights, Xiaonan has taken a significant step up in competition and lost. Dern is one of the most credentialed jiu jitsu practitioners in UFC history. She has an enormous arsenal of submissions at her disposal and the ability to completely dominate her opponents on the mat. Xiaonan is certainly no slouch in any aspect of fighting but I do believe Dern proves to be a bit too much for her here. Dern was able to outclass a more talented grappler than Yan in her last few fights, getting the better of Virna Jandiroba, Nina Nunes and Tecia Torres. Her striking continues to develop and while Xiaonan is certainly more technical standing, her power is not a major concern. I am not comfortable predicting a stoppage in this bout but do believe all Dern is a safe bet. She has gotten her weight under control and that grappling acumen makes her live against any woman in this division. Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission
Nick: Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ blackbelts in all of MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion, and a brutal matchup for any opponent when her fights hit the mat. In many ways, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. When this fight is standing, Xianon is going to have a considerable advantage both technically speaking and in terms of power. Yan Xiaonan is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in her career. They came to extremely high level competition in Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez, but there is certainly pressure on her here to get back in the win column. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over her last few fights. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC. Still, she’s definitely going to try to take this fight to the mat. Xiaonan is a gifted striker who can fight at a fast and effective pace. I expect Dern to do everything she can to take this fight to the mat and given the five round nature of this bout I expect she eventually will. Xiaonan has a decent 65 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but it will likely only take Dern one takedown to find the submission once she grounds her. Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission.

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_