Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/28) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 50-46 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Wednesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s finish the regular season strong.
Season Record: (50-46)
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (+110)
Josiah Gray has allowed 4+ ER in each of his four starts in September. He comes into this start with a 5.34 xFIP, allowing a .198 ISO to RHH and a brutal .332 ISO to LHH. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a shaky 4.01 ERA in 2022.
This Braves offense is as hot as any in baseball right now. Their projected starting lineup comes into this match-up with a .205 ISO against RHP this season. They have scored 6+ Runs in each of their last four games played, they rank 2nd in the MLB with a .762 OPS this season. They rank 2nd in HRs with 233, and third in Runs Scored with 762. I like the Over on their 5.5 Run Team Total here at an excellent price of +110.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Money Line (-125)
Mitch White comes into this match-up with a 4.94 xFIP, and an ugly 8.03 ERA so far in the month of September. He’s allowed 24 combined ERs over his last five starts and he’s in a tricky spot here against a dangerous Yankees offense. The Yankees lead the AL in HRs with 242, Runs Scored with 777, and RBIs with 738. They’ve scored 5+ Runs in seven of their last 9 games played.
Gerrit Cole will be taking the mound for the Yankees here. He comes in with a 3.39 xFIP, a 32.7% K Rate, holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .290 wOBA. This Blue Jays offense is undoubtedly dangerous, but their projected starting lineup has just a .168 ISO and .322 wOBA against RHP this season. These are two competitive division rivals, but I’m surprised by the value we’re getting on the Yankees money line here at just -125.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 Runs (-145)
Dean Kremer has done a decent job limiting damage, but he’s due for considerable regression as his 4.90 xFIP sits nearly two full points higher than his 3.07 ERA. The Red Sox have scored a combined 21 Runs across the first two games of this series, and they’ve been hot so far in September with a .775 OPS.
Rich Hill hasn’t been terrible, but he’s carrying an ugly 6.07 ERA in Fenway in 2022. He has a 4.93 xFIP and he’s allowing a .190 ISO to RHH. This Orioles offense has been underrated this season. They have scored 9+ Runs in three of their last four games played. Given the mediocrity of both SPs and the quality of these offenses, I’ll happily pay a little extra juice here (-145) to take the Over on the game total over 8.5 Runs.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS