UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje – 6.14.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje. We honor America here with this historic event and a president bringing the best sport ever to the South Lawn of the White House! The card features seven fights and caps a massive weekend here in Washington with two title bouts. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 154-72-4 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
- Nick: 150-76-4 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)
*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 6-11-2026 at 11pm EST
Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Diego Lopes -170 vs Steve Garcia +145
- Anthony: Opening this card is a great featherweight matchup between Steve Garcia and Diego Lopes. It is notable that all of these fights are taking place outside where weather could have an impact. Bettors should monitor conditions on Sunday and I think especially here to start the event. My main concern is that a slippery canvas could make it hard for fighters to maintain their footwork. Lopes tends to be very aggressive early and these two will likely compete right away for Fight of the Night. Garcia has looked incredible on this seven fight winning streak but the level of competition is not quite as tough as what Lopes has seen. The Brazilian has a very good chin and better grappling compared to Garcia. Lopes is rightfully favored because of that decisive edge in jiu jitsu. When these two are exchanging strikes it will likely be Garcia putting together the better combinations. He lands an average 5.39 significant strikes per minute while staying very composed fighting from the outside in. His technical boxing is very high level and from the southpaw stance I expect he will be able to unload on Lopes and rip him with nice shots to the body. Three of his previous four bouts were won via knockout in round one. I am expecting a stoppage here inside of two rounds and slightly prefer Garcia as the betting underdog. The prop bet I am targeting for this fight is u2.5 rounds. Steve Garcia by Round One KO
- Nick: Diego Lopes is 27-8 professionally with eleven wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ and excellent overall scrambling ability. His striking continues to improve. He’s durable and aggressive, and he generally does a good job generating power from a variety of angles. He has notable wins over the likes of Brian Ortega, Dan Ige, and most recently Jean Silva. He showed an elite version of himself in that Silva match-up, wearing damage well and dominating that fight on the mat. Since then, he suffered a decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski in a title fight back in January. Still there is no denying he is one of the more dangerous and well-rounded fighters in the world at 145 lbs. Steve Garcia is an effective striker with surprising power for his frame. He is far from technical on the feet, but he can eat a punch and keep pushing forward as he does a good job keeping volume on his opponents. He’s a decent grappler, but he’s certainly more content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s coming off of seven straight wins under the UFC banner, most recently securing an impressive KO victory over David Onama back in November of 2025. He has shown massive improvements in all facets of his game over the past few years, but he’ll need to sow the best version of himself here to find success against Lopes. As impressive as Garcia has been, most of his recent wins have come via KO and Lopes’ chin seems to be amongst the best of the division. Additionally, there really is no denying Lopes has been taking on a higher level of opponent. This is a volatile match-up, but I do expect Lopes can find a takedown early or create a scramble and find Garcia’s back for a submission. The widest skill gap here is certainly in grappling. Diego Lopes by Round Two Submission
Bo Nickal -320 vs Kyle Daukaus +270
- Anthony: Next is a bout at middleweight between Kyle Daukaus and Bo Nickal. This is honestly great matchmaking and a much closer fight than the odds would suggest. Nickal and Daukaus are very similar in terms of their long frame, but Daukaus is an experienced professional while Nickal still seems to be learning a bit on the job. Nickal is of course appearing here to fight in Washington as one of the most decorated American wrestlers of this era. He has a clear edge over Daukaus in terms of wrestling but I do not think he will just slice through him on the ground. Daukaus has solid jiu jitsu and very good neck attacks that he could utilize to return to his feet. Nickal’s striking has come a long way but you can tell that it is still a work in progress. It is still rare that he strings together combinations of more than three shots. Daukaus is much more dangerous, really committing to his strikes and finishing his opponents with pretty savage beatings. Daukaus has won six fights in a row including two UFC victories in 2025. He was successful stopping Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert both in less than one minute! This aggressive style could easily yield another victory for Daukaus. Nickal needs to fight smart here and rely on his wrestling in order to cash as the betting favorite. Bo Nickal by Decision
- Nick: Bo Nickal is widely considered one of the best prospects in the sport of MMA. He is only 8-1 professionally, but all but one of those wins have come via finish. What Nickal lacks in professional MMA experience, he more than makes up for in wrestling credentials. Nickal was awarded the 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy as the nation’s most outstanding collegiate wrestler for that year. He was a finalist in the 2020 Olympic Team trials, and a three-time NCAA Division I National Champion. Nickal trains at American Top Team where he’s been working on his striking extensively with the likes of Mike Brown and Jorge Masvidal. He’s coming off a KO win over Rodolfo Vieira, which was important to see as prior to that he suffered the first loss of his career to Renier de Ridder. He was outstruck in the clinch in that fight, and it seemed his cardio quickly depleted before he was folded via KO against the cage. Kyle Daukaus enters this match-up off of impressive wins via finish over Gerald Meerschaert and Michel Pereira. He’s on a six fight win streak overall. He was cut from the promotion following back-to-back losses back in 2022, but at 32 years old it does seem that he is still in his athletic prime. Daukaus’ striking is still far from technical, but he is well-versed enough to stand and trade when he needs to. His greatest strength is his offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt, but he’s also shown a solid chin and mostly excellent cardio. The line feels wide here as I do still feel Nickal is somewhat overrated. That being said, Daukas has had issues against strong and athletic fighters in the past. Most of his losses have come against fighters with similar builds as Nickal. I expect the favorite to mix in his grappling here on his way to an impressive win. Bo Nickal by Decision
Mauricio Ruffy -650 vs Michael Chander +425
- Anthony: This should be an exciting fight at lightweight between Michael Chandler and Mauricio Ruffy. The biggest underdog on this card is Chandler who is fighting now at 40 years old after losing his last three appearances. I have been betting against Chandler since he joined the promotion and overall in the UFC his record is a salty 2-5. Ruffy is a real contender in this division now training with Alexander Volkanovski in his corner. The Brazilian has elite striking, fighting from a wide stance and using his great karate to keep distance. His defense so far has been excellent and when striking on offense Ruffy is putting opponents to sleep. His right hand is extremely powerful when thrown as a jab or much less conventionally. The attacks come from so many different angles thanks to Ruffy’s great footwork and ability to feint. Chandler loves to put on a show with his striking but he cannot stand and trade in this fight against Ruffy. Chandler needs to rely on his wrestling to takedown Ruffy and potentially score this big upset. Ruffy was exposed on the mat in his one career loss against Benoit Saint Denis but it will take a perfect effort from Chandler to hold him down for the full three rounds here. Ruffy is going to keep enough distance to find a knockout here in round one or two. Chandler is very easy to hit and a sniper like Ruffy will show no mercy putting him to sleep here in a highlight. Mauricio Ruffy by Round Two KO
- Nick: Mauricio Ruffy is 13-2 professionally, with twelve of those wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Ruffy is an explosive athlete who has shown quality skills on the feet. He has tremendous power for the division, but his defensive grappling presents a weakness in an otherwise impressive overall game. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over a tough out in Rafael Fiziev, and he’ll be looking to continue that positive momentum here against an interesting test in the veteran Michael Chandler. Before he began his career in MMA, Chandler was an accomplished NCAA Division I Wrestler. He’s one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division, even though he’s getting up there in age at 40 years old. He carries power on the feet, but his speed and durability seem to be rapidly declining. He enters this match-up on a three-fight losing streak, and it seems he only has a few fights left in his gas tank before he’s forced to retire. Chandler’s fight IQ is more of a weakness than a strength. He’s overly willing to engage in a brawl which has proven to be a detriment to him in the past. He does have a solid wrestling base which he could lean on here if he so chooses, but it’s tough to expect him to maintain his cardio if he tries to grapple for all three rounds. The line here feels ridiculous, and I do expect Chandler can find some early success. That being said, I expect he’s too far past his prime to pull off this upset. Ruffy has the type of striking that can give Chandler fits. It may take some time, but I expect Ruffy can keep this fight standing long enough to score another highlight reel KO. Mauricio Ruffy by Round Two KO
Josh Hokit -320 vs Derrick Lewis +270
- Anthony: This heavyweight matchup comes next. President Trump specifically requested his favorite fighter Derrick Lewis would compete at this event and now he faces the surging Josh Hokit. In April at UFC 327, Hokit earned two bonuses for his Fight of the Night battle with Curtis Blaydes. That was an incredible matchup as both men refused to quit while throwing everything that they had at the other. That bout shattered the UFC record for the most combined strikes in a heavyweight fight with a total of 351 significant strikes landed. Hokit not only emerged victorious there but he got to display just how good his chin and cardio really is. Hokit does not really seem to have much power in his hands but he is a very persistent athlete, willing to chop down heavyweights with volume striking rather than brute force. It is crucial that he does not fight as recklessly in this fight as he did facing Blaydes. Derrick Lewis has not been in great form lately but this is still the UFC all-time leader for knockouts and a power threat that cannot be ignored. Wrestling is the clearest path to victory for Hokit in this matchup and I imagine that he will look to shoot on Lewis in round one. I have seen really good takedown entries from Hokit but he could probably get it done with a single leg in this matchup. Lewis has averaged just 52 percent takedown defense throughout his career. Hokit will present major issues for Lewis on the ground, bullying him with many small shots and even threatening submissions. It is a scary matchup on paper but really Hokit should cash comfortably here as the betting favorite to improve to 10-0. He is one of my most confident picks for this event. Josh Hokit by Round One KO
- Nick: Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-four of his twenty-nine professional wins coming via KO. As dangerous as he is offensively, he’s extremely inconsistent. He has mediocre takedown defense and at 41 years old his cardio and durability are both declining at a rapid rate. Josh Hokit is 9-0 professionally and 28 years old, with five wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s dangerous offensively and has shown an ability to finish a fight anywhere, and he enters this match-up off a career best win which came in a bloody decision over Curtis Blaydes. He’s a credentialed wrestler with solid cardio for a heavyweight. He can be hittable, but he carries true KO power and he’s willing to close distance and engage in a firefight. Hokit has been impressive and he’s likely to have a speed advantage here, but he’d be wise to lean on his grappling. Lewis is always live for a KO upset as his power is truly devastating, but Hokit’s speed, athleticism, and pace are likely to cause problems for him here. Hokit will need to be careful on entry, but if he can take Lewis down early he should find his way to a win. Even if this stays standing, he has the speed to overwhelm Lewis and put him away. Josh Hokit by Round One KO
Sean O’Malley -400 vs Aiemann Zahabi +300
- Anthony: This will be a matchup at bantamweight between Sean O’Malley and Aiemann Zahabi. It is the second appearance for O’Malley this year after already beating Song Yadong in a bout at UFC 324. Zahabi will put his win streak on the line against O’Malley but this seems to be an extremely favorable draw for Sean fighting here at the White House. Zahabi is a striker that will meet O’Malley at the range where he does his best work. The veteran fighter is very technically skilled and generally composed, but I am not sure Zahabi can do much here to give any problems. His output has been remarkable lately averaging 90 significant strikes in his previous four fights. However, high volume exchanges back and forth are exactly where O’Malley is the most dangerous. He is also taller than Zahabi with a reach advantage of more than three inches. The odds here are wide and this may play out as a closer than expected decision but nonetheless O’Malley should easily get his hand raised here. The judges tend to favor O’Malley when his fights are close and I really think it is a given that here representing America he will win. Zahabi is 38 years old and O’Malley will make him work very hard throughout this matchup. He should be firing on all cylinders here with only three rounds scheduled compared to a championship five. Sean O’Malley by Decision
- Nick: Sean O’Malley, a former UFC bantamweight champion, is extremely fast and agile on the feet with phenomenal overall striking ability. He is defensively sound, and he does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has an excellent +2.65 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. O’Malley sports a decent 60% takedown defense coming into this match-up, and it is very rare we see him attempt to grapple offensively. Aiemann Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards. He’s on a six fight win-streak, coming off a narrow decision win over a tough out in Marlon Vera. Zahabi may be the better grappler in this match-up, but it’s rare we see him lean on that part of his game. I expect O’Malley’s speed and superior footwork to shine through here as he wins this fight at range. Sean O’Malley by Round Three KO
Alex Pereira -110 vs Ciryl Gane -110
- Anthony: The co-main event is for the interim heavyweight championship with Alex Pereira facing Ciryl Gane. Alex Pereira is moving up here in an attempt to become the first ever UFC three-weight champion. Poatan has shattered all expectations since joining the promotion and if any fighter can attain this insane feat I am sure that he is capable. However, I am very hesitant to back Pereira in this spot without seeing him already compete at this weight. This has been the longest layoff of Pereira’s career but I still do not think 8 months is enough time to properly bulk to 260 pounds. Gane has proven himself already as one of the fastest heavyweights. He will not be a stationary target for Pereira, constantly moving on the outside and throwing offense. The power advantage still goes to Pereira here but I think it will be hard for him to even touch Gane clean. He is likely going to be forced to close the distance against a faster man that has longer reach. Pereira will also look to utilize low leg kicks to hurt Gane and limit his overall mobility. Gane has more weapons in his offensive arsenal even if he does not hit quite as hard. He will spend each moment of this fight trying to connect with Pereira whether that be by jab, front kick or hammerfirst. Gane is also the far superior fighter in terms of his defense. Opponents average just 40 percent accuracy on attempted strikes thrown at Gane. He appeared to be the best heavyweight in the world last year in that matchup against Tom Aspinall that got cut short due to a foul. This will be Gane’s last chance at earning gold and I think he will be able to do so here in his fourth attempt. And New. Cyril Gane by Round Four KO
- Nick: Alex Pereira will be looking to become the first UFC fighter to ever hold a title in three different weightclasses, moving up to heavyweight here after reclaiming the Light Heavyweight Championship off Magomed Ankalev via Round One KO back in October of 2025. Pereira is known for his vicious left-hook. That being said, there is no denying he carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet, he has outstanding footwork and head movement, and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a noted hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera for the past several years, so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. Ciryl Gane lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he absorbs just over 2. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit and his footwork is extremely advanced for someone his size. Gane is 13-2-1 professionally, with his only losses coming to former champions Jon Jones and Frances Ngannou. He has been out of action since his anticlimactic fight with Tom Aspinall back in October of 2025, a match-up that ended in a No Contest as Gane eye poked Aspinall multiple times to the point which Aspinall was unable to continue. Prior to the NC stoppage, Gane did look excellent against one of the best heavyweights in the world. Pereira has the type of power to end any fight in an instance, but moving up a weight class against a younger and more athletic opponent is likely to prove difficult for him here. This is one of the more volatile fights on the card and one I could see going either way, but I’ll be siding with the natural heavyweight. And New. Ciryl Gane by Decision
Ilia Topuria -650 vs Justin Gaethje +425
- Anthony: The main event unifies the lightweight championship with Ilia Topuria defending his title against Justin Gaethje. In January, Gaethje was victorious in a Fight of the Night scrap with Paddy Pimblett to be named the Interim champion. Gathje continues to win against great opponents but it is always a blood and guts war. I am worried about his reckless style here locked in a cage with Topuria. It has been nearly a year since Topuria last competed but it seems that this hiatus is over and he is ready to defend this belt a few more times. Watching tape on Topuria reveals that his boxing is on another level compared to anybody else. He overwhelms opponents with combinations that have two or three strikes landing flush with full power. Topuria is amazing when it comes to changing the levels of his attacks and going to the body to open up his opponent’s head. He is not only a deadly accurate striker but he also hits just as hard as anyone else at this weight. Gathje is cooked, absorbing on average 7.05 significant strikes per minute throughout his career. To fight Topuria you cannot abandon your defensive awareness and Gaethje’s style is all about putting offense first and defense on the back burner. He is also 37 years old with so much damage already absorbed throughout his career. Topuria has spent his camp studying every attack that Gathje throws and planning his counters. The American is going to get punished here every time that he moves forward or attempts to land a low leg kick. I expect to see the same old Gaethje putting on for the fans here before getting put to sleep. Topuria will find a finish here inside of five rounds to improve to 18-0. And still. Ilia Topuria by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ilia Topuria comes into this fight with a lot of momentum, undefeated at 17-0, and most recently capturing the UFC Lightweight Title with a KO of Charles Oliviera back in June of 2025. He is an aggressive striker who packs a lot of power in his punches. He throws extremely fast combinations and his overall explosiveness has catapulted him into the pound-for-pound rankings as one of the best fighters in the world. Topuria has also shown a solid understanding of both wrestling and BJJ. Topuria is a black belt in BJJ with eight of his seventeen wins coming via submission. Justin Gaethje is a fan favorite who has built his career on toughness and durability, and he is coming off an impressive win over Paddy Pimblett in which he captured the UFC Interim Lightweight Championship. While he’s still the class of the division, at 37 years old there is no denying his career is on a bit of a downturn. At his best, he’s a potent striker with power in all of his limbs. His leg-kicking ability is amongst the best in the division, and while he tends to win on volume more than pure on shot power, he has secured flash KOs against an elite level of opponent. His speed has been declining and he isn’t as aggressive as he was earlier in his career as he is extremely mindful of his cardio. Gaehje is a tough and gritty veteran, but when it comes to technical skill he’s going to be outclassed by a wide margin in this one. Topuria has the type of speed and accuracy to end this fight quickly. I expect he will as soon as Gaethje tries to close the distance. And still. Ilia Topuria by Round One KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com