Cardinals Unlikely to Trade Nolan Arenado Before Opening Day
After several attempts to trade star third baseman Nolan Arenado over the off-season failed, the St. Louis Cardinals are bracing for the reality that the eight-time All-Star will most likely remain with the franchise through Opening Day.
It wasn’t for a lack of trying, though.
The Cardinals brass had been fielding offers on Arenado over the past several months as both sides sought a fresh start. With the team entering a rebuilding phase, looking to create additional playing time for its young core, Arenado desired to be moved to a contender ahead of his age-34 campaign.
A deal was on the table to send the 10-time Gold Glove Award winner to the Houston Astros back in December. But he nixed that potential trade with the no-movement clause in his contract, keeping him in St. Louis for the time being.
Arenado provided the Cardinals a list of five clubs he’d accept a trade to, with the Boston Red Sox amongst them. Except they took themselves off the board Wednesday night after signing fellow third baseman Alex Bregman. Thus, he’s now expected to begin this season with the Red Birds.
“I’d definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters Thursday, including MLB.com’s John Denton, regarding Arenado’s odds of remaining with the Cardinals. “After that [Bregman deal] came out last night, nothing has changed from my end except that [Boston is] just not a team he can go to.”
“Right now, the mindset has to be that Nolan Arenado is our third baseman until that changes.”
Mozeliak said that for Arenado to be traded, he’d most likely need to expand his list of potential destinations, adding that the front office has “exhausted the others” – which most believe included the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. However, trade talks with those teams never advanced beyond the preliminary phase.
St. Louis is planning for the 33-year-old to report for spring training this weekend, with position players scheduled to arrive by Sunday ahead of Monday’s first full-squad workout.
“Look, he’s a star player. As we think about [resetting the roster], he does make us a better team if he’s Nolan… and if he’s happy,” Mozeliak said. “I like that he does seem to be motivated to want to be good. I can candidly say of all the trade conversations I’ve been in, [an Arenado bounce-back year] is what scares me the most. I think great players have that extra gear and when they find it, they’re special.”
Arenado, who’s owed $64 million through 2027, has seen his offensive production rapidly decline over the last two seasons. After clubbing 34 home runs in ‘21, followed by 30 in ‘22, he only mustered 26 the following year and finished well shy of 20 a season ago.
Adding to his hitting woes, the right-handed-hitting corner infielder posted a career-worst .394 SLG in ‘24, recording a sub-.400 figure for the first time in his 12 MLB seasons. He also accounted for a troubling 102 wRC+ (100 league average), another career low – excluding ‘20.
Still, despite his minimal offensive value, Arenado remained an elite defender at the hot corner, ranking third in outs above average (nine) and fielding run value (seven) and tied for fifth in defensive runs saved (six) among big-league third basemen.
The Newport Beach, CA native probably isn’t thrilled about still being part of a non-playoff contender. Based on his recent offensive struggles, though, chances are he’ll be extremely motivated to showcase a return-to-form performance this season.
“I think he was frustrated with the direction we were going,” Mozeliak explained. “When you start to go down the path in looking to be traded, there has to be some reason for it. So, that’s why we were exploring it. He also recognizes where he’s at in his career. His goal is to win a World Series, and he wants to be a part of a championship. It’s not that we’re not trying to win, but candidly we didn’t go out and add. So, it does have a different feel than what we’ve done in the past.”
Failing to trade Arenado this winter will impact St. Louis’ plans to hand the starting reins at third base to Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese in 2025. That could have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the roster, with those two needing to find reps elsewhere in the infield, likely pushing Brendan Donovan to the outfield.
Being on the hook for Arenado’s remaining contract, which pays him $32 million this season, $27 million next season and $15 million in 2027, will also handicap the Cardinals financially and prevent them from making meaningful additions before Opening Day.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @Hall_Thomas_
Photo: Arturo Pardavila III. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.