UFC 311 Full Card Analysis & Betting Guide

UFC 311: Makhachev vs Moicano – 1.18.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 311: Makhachev vs Moicano. Tonight’s event takes place in Los Angeles with two title belts up for grabs in extremely high-level matchups, including a short notice booking in the main event. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 9-5-0 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 9-5-0 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-17-2024 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Starts 6:00pm EST

Tagir Ulanbekov -350 vs Clayton Carpenter +260

Anthony: Tonight’s event begins with flyweights Clayton Carpenter and Tagir Ulanbekov. Team Khabib looks to start the night strong with an Ulanbekov win before both Umar Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev compete in title fights. Ulanbekov is a very solid athlete will well-rounded skills and very good grappling. He has earned submission wins in both of his previous appearances. Carpenter enters this fight still undefeated and now taking on his toughest test to date. The 28-year-old has an extensive background in martial arts, debuting as an amateur in 2015. He is an IBJJF champion and former Golden Gloves boxing champion too. I am a fan of Carpenter’s muay thai and excellent low kicks. He could really chop away at Ulanbekov here making this a competitive striking match. I trust Carpenter’s wrestling and expect him to scramble out of submission rather than getting caught in a choke. Ulanbekov has had issues with his cardio before and I could see Carpenter getting the better of him here as this bout goes late. There is value here betting on the undefeated fighter. Clayton Carpenter by Decision
Nick: Tagir Ulanbekov trains under Khabib Nurmagomedov, and at one point he was one of the more hyped prospects on the roster at flyweight. He hasn’t fought frequently enough to climb the rankings, but he’s a tough out for almost anyone in the division. As a former Combat Sambo World Champion he’s an excellent grappler, but he also does a good job using his length to succeed on the feet. He sometimes struggles to keep his opponents grounded once he does take them down, but he’s relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and usually does an excellent job of chain-wrestling to control the pace of his fights. Clayton Carpenter is a strong grappler with advanced BJJ offensively. He’s a decent striker at range capable of putting power behind his strikes, but he throws from odd angles which can leave him open to be countered. He is 8-0 professionally and 28-years old, but relatively speaking he is still early in his development as a prospect. Ulanbekov has been an inconsistent fighter across his UFC tenure, I still expect he’ll secure the win as the favorite here. Carpenter is skilled, but this feels like a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition. Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision

Bernardo Sopaj -250 vs Ricky Turcios +200

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Ricky Turcios and Bernardo Sopaj. We should be in for a very good scrap here as both men look to bounce back off of losses. Turcios was submitted in his last fight against Raul Rosas Jr and it is evident that grappling is his main weakness. Turcios tends to have success when he can build momentum striking but otherwise he has struggles. He has a five-inch reach advantage in this matchup but his striking accuracy is also not all that high. Sopaj is a very talented 24 year old that will become a great fighter over these next few years. He trains with a great team at Allstars and has a resume filled with not only highlight reel KOs but great grappling. I certainly feel that Sopaj has the skills to takedown Turcios and force him to work when this fight hits the mat. If Sopaj can do well managing his cardio I expect him to win rounds given those decisive advantages on the mat. There is some value betting Turcios here in a close fight but as these odds have closed Sopaj is becoming a more attractive option. I think he gets the job done as the betting favorite. Bernardo Sopaj by Decision
Nick: Bernando Sopaj is only 24-years old and 11-3 professionally. He fights out of a solid camp via Allstars Training Center in Sweden, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He gave a decent showing of himself in his UFC debut against a tough out in Vinicius Oliveira on short notice. However, after winning that fight early he started to fade until he was brutally KO’d with a flying knee in the third round. Turcois is a highly aggressive and an extremely creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. All this being said, he’s failed to impress at the UFC level. He is 2-2 in the promotion, against a relatively low level of opponent. Sopaj should be the better technical striker in this match-up, and the more effective offensive wrestler as well. He’ll need to manage his cardio, but I expect he’ll secure the win as the favorite as he stays a step ahead for three rounds. Bernardo Sopaj by Decision

Rinya Nakamura -600 vs Muin Gafurov +425

Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Rinya Nakamura and Muin Gafurov. Nobody impressed me more competing on Road to the UFC than Rinya Nakamura. He won his promotional debut in under a minute and I see a very bright young future ahead for the Japanese star. The young man grew up in the shadow of the Saitama Super Arena and now looks to carry on the fighting spirit of Japan at the highest level. He was a junior wrestling champion and has an incredibly effective grappling inside of the octagon. Nakamura should dictate the style of the fight against Gafurov. The fighter from Tajikistan is tough with great boxing and an aggressive style, but nothing he does is all too special. While Gafurov is going to be comfortable in most grappling exchanges, I do not expect him to successfully sweep Nakamura. He is going to spend a large portion of this match fighting off of his back. Nakamura has good attacks from range, closing the distance fast with kicks and unorthodox combinations. I think he has serious potential to rise the ranks of this division and beat some of the bigger names. I am picking him with confidence to get the win today. At these odds it seems impossible to bet Nakamura but I struggle to see a clear path to victory for his overmatched opponent. Rinya Nakamura by Decision
Nick: Muin Gafurov is fairly well-rounded, with eleven wins coming via KO and seven via submission. He’s coming off an impressive performance in which he secured a decision win over Kyung Ho Kang, but prior to that he had been coming off back-to-back losses – albeit to decent opposition in Said Nurmagomedov and John Castañeda. Gafurov is dangerous everywhere, but he’s small for the division. While his aggressive style can be tough for lower level opponents to deal with, his cardio and durability seem to be more of a weakness than a strength. Rinya Nakamura has a compact and muscular frame. He is dangerous everywhere as an aggressive striker with power in all of his limbs. His pressure forward style can occasionally leave him there to be countered in exchanges, but his athleticism and speed have kept him safe on the feet up to this point in his career. As impressive as his striking is, he’s also a high level wrestler. He looks excellent in scrambles and he seems to know how to find takedowns from a wide range of positions. The line is getting wide on this one, but Nakamura should certainly dominate. He should be the superior fighter no matter where this fight takes place. Rinya Nakamura by Decision

Karol Rosa -250 vs Ailin Perez +200

Anthony: Next is a good fight at women’s bantamweight between AIlin Perez and Karol Rosa. While Rosa is a sizable favorite in this matchup I’m expecting a very close contest. Perez will look to test her elite grappling against the likes of Rosa. Throughout her tenure in the UFC we have not seen Rosa grounded very often. She is a good jiu jitsu practitioner with decent hips to defend takedowns. Her striking has come a long way and I feel confident saying her boxing is much better than Perez. Rosa also has a slight reach advantage. I think the win streak continues for Perez as long as she successfully converts her takedowns. Perez should be able to smother Rosa in this fight with her excellent chain wrestling and top pressure. We have previously seen Perez score 10 of 15 takedowns in a fight against Ashlee Evans-Smith and 6 of 11 takedowns against Joselyne Edwards. I am hopeful that we see a similar performance here from her today. She can win minutes and certainly seems like the value side in a bout likely to reach the judge’s scorecards. Ailin Perez by Decision
Nick: Karol Rosa has landed more than six strikes per minute in the UFC, and she also averages just under 1.3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. She is a well-rounded fighter, and she’s fought against the top of the division since she made her promotional debut back in 2019. Rosa has solid footwork and she does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. She’s not very powerful on the feet, but she works well behind her jab and she generally does a decent job finding her target in spite of the fact she is relatively short for the division. She’s a serviceable offensive grappler who tends to exploit her opponents weaknesses if they aren’t as well-rounded. Against a wrestler here, I fully expect she’ll do what she can to keep the fight standing. Ailin Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. In her most recent fights, she showed her grappling is improving at a rapid rate. She is coming off four consecutive wins via decision. Perez comes into this match-up with momentum, but Rosa represents a dramatic step up in terms of level of competition. Rosa is the much better striker here, and I expect she can keep this fight standing long enough to pick Perez apart on the feet. Karol Rosa by Round Three KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Grant Dawson -250 vs Carlos Diego Ferreira +200

Anthony: The preliminary card starts with lightweights Grant Dawson and Carlos Diego Ferreira. Both men enter on two-fight winning streaks and within striking distance of the division’s top ten. Dawson’s two wins last year were a solid way to bounce back from his first loss in the UFC. He really put a beating on Rafa Garcia when he last competed at The Apex in October. Dawson is not one to take very many risks, gluing himself to opponents and using offensive grappling. He will struggle here matching Ferreira on the feet and mixing the martial arts against him. As a Dawson bettor I’d like to see him drag Ferreira to the ground as quickly as he can. Dawson’s own grappling and dominant offensive wrestling should put him in a position to win this fight in top control. I think he will spend several minutes here navigating Ferreira’s guard and keeping his man glued to the canvas. Ferreira will attempt some sweeps but I do not think his jiu jitsu is quite good enough to beat Dawson. Ferreira will need to rely on his boxing to cash as the betting underdog. Grant Dawson by Decision
Nick: Grant Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 22-2-1 professionally, holding impressive wins over Damir Ismagulov, Mark Madsen and Jared Gordon. Dawson has made dramatic improvements since he moved camps to the American Top Team. His cardio and overall fight IQ have improved dramatically. While his striking has come a long way, he’s still primarily a wrestler and on the feet he can be very vulnerable against quality competition. Carlos Diego Ferreira is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in the UFC. He’s more than competent on the feet, but his offensive grappling ability is definitely his greatest strength. Seven of his nineteen professional victories have come by way of submission. He’s most recently coming off an impressive KO win over Mateusz Rębecki, a fight in which he managed to weaponize his cardio after a slow start against a highly regarded opponent. Ferreira is one of the more dangerous underdogs on this card. He’s the much better striker in this match-up and he has an experience advantage against an elite level of opponent. Dawson has a clear path to victory if he can lean on his wrestling for fifteen minutes, but I see value on the underdog. It’s going to be tough to keep Ferreira down for fifteen minutes. Carlos Diego Ferreira by Round Two KO

Bogdan Guskov -350 vs Billy Elekana +260

Anthony: Next is a fight at light heavyweight between Bogdan Guskov and Billy Elekana. This booking comes on short notice after Guskov was originally scheduled to face Johnny Walker. Elekana currently trains in Las Vegas and likely was ready for this call. He is a tough Samoan with good boxing and a strong right cross. He is not afraid to step into the pocket and trade but I do not think that is a recipe for success against someone the likes of Guskov. Both previous wins by Guskov came by impressive knockouts, earning him bonuses for Performance of the Night. He has a negative striking differential overall but when Guskov’s shots land they connect with power. He does well stringing together combination punches and getting his shots to their target quickly. In his career Guskov has only seen the judge’s scorecards once, in a loss. Elekana would have the edge if this fight goes late but I feel confident saying Guskov will find a stoppage win before that. I think he finds the knockout here in round one. Bogdan Guskov by Round One KO
Nick: Bogdan Guskov is 16-3 professionally, with fourteen of those sixteen wins coming via KO. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently securing an impressive win via KO over a dangerous opponent in Ryan Spann. Guskov is a powerful striker, but his aggressive style makes him a vulnerable target in extended exchanges. He seems to have decent BJJ, but we have yet to see him even attempt to lean on that part of his game at the UFC level. Billy Elekena will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Johnny Walker. Elkena is 7-1 professionally and 29-years old. He has fought for both LFA and the PFL, and he enters this match-up on a three-fight winning streak. Elekena seems decent everywhere, but he lacks finishing ability and his cardio seems like it will be more of a weakness than a strength. While I expect Guskov is a bit overrated, this feels like the type of match-up in which he should succeed. Bogdan Guskov by Round One KO

Azamat Bekoev -200 vs Zach Reese +160

Anthony: Here is another short notice matchup between Zach Reese and Azamant Bekoev. Reese was originally scheduled to face Sedriques Dumas here but now he instead faces the promotional newcomer. Bekoev is certainly a talented fighter spending the past two years fighting in LFA. He won the interim middleweight title against Dylan Budka in LFA but then won in his two subsequent defenses. He is a steady fighter, very well rounded with a background in wrestling. Bekoev trains at American Top Team and I certainly expect him to lean on his wrestling here against Reese. Normally I would expect him to have the cardio advantage in this matchup but that may not be the case as these two meet on a week’s notice. Reese is accustomed to ending his fights early and his last bout against Jose Medina was not only his first ever decision, but the first time Reese even saw the end of round one. He is a very aggressive fighter with big power for middleweight and great submission skills. Reese is a live underdog in this spot as he benefits from a full training camp. It seems most likely this bout ends by stoppage very early for Reese or else it will be Bekoev’s fight to lose. I am going to take a shot betting Reese as I view this a good plus money spot. I’d also consider wagering on Bekoev live instead of pre-fight, perhaps getting improved odds at the end of round one. Zach Reese by Round One Submission
Nick: Zach Reese is 8-1 professionally, coming off a decision win over José Medina. Prior to that fight, all seven of Reese’s other professional victories had come via first round stoppage. As impressive as Reese has been on the surface, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Reese is long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. He’s athletic with a solid frame, but it’s tough to know what to expect of him at the UFC level as in a lot of ways he is still untested. Azamat Bekoev will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Sedriques Dumas. Bekoev is 29-years old and 18-3 professionally. He has taken on a quality level of regional opponents, fighting primarily in ACA and LFA. Bekoev is decent everywhere, but most of his success has come on the mat. Bekoev is taking this fight on short notice and Reese is wildly inconsistent. I slightly prefer Bekoev here as the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio. Azamat Bekoev by Decision

Payton Talbott -1200 vs Raoni Barcelos +750

Anthony: The featured prelim comes at bantamweight between Raoni Barcelos and Payton Talbott. This is a fight that likely continues Talbott’s ascension toward the top fifteen. The 26 year old is undefeated and exceptional when it comes to his striking. His last performance was a knockout at UFC 303 in less than 20 seconds against Yanis Ghemmouri. He really has it all, blending power with speed and incredible distance management. Barcelos is now 37 at bantamweight and not nearly as quick when it comes to his reaction time. Talbott will likely have Barcelos biting on feints here as he measures distance and sets up his more powerful attacks. He is fluid in his approach, moving well in both stances while overwhelming opponents with differing looks. Talbott does very well utilizing his kicks and closing the distance on opponents rather seamlessly. He is faster than Barcelos and has far superior footwork. Talbott should build as this fight goes later and Barcelos’ defense gets even worse. It is tough to get action on Talbott at -1200 but this is a layup and I am very confident picking him to win. Payton Talbott by Round Two KO
Nick: Payton Talbott is a gifted striker with surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents in exchanges. We haven’t seen him tested extensively on the mat, but he enters this matchup with a 90 percent takedown defense. Talbott is one of the more exciting prospects in the world at 135 lbs, and it seems the UFC is trying to showcase him here against a respectable but aging vet in Raoni Barcelos. Raoni Barcelos was once considered by many to be a future top contender in this division. He’s extremely well rounded as a third-degree black belt in BJJ whose striking is as creative as it is dangerous. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks, which he mixes in well with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. As talented as he is, there is really no denying that he is not as dangerous or effective as he was just a few years ago. At 36-years old, he’s now one of the older fighters in the division. The line here is ridiculous as Talbott is still developing as a prospect. Still, his speed advantage here makes him a fighter you can back with confidence. I expect Barcelos to keep things interesting early, but as Talbott gets comfortable he should dominate on the feet. Payton Talbott by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Reinier de Ridder -130 vs Kevin Holland +110

Anthony: The main card opens with a fight at middleweight between Kevin Holland and Reinier de Ridder. This is a matchup between striker and grappler with de Ridder likely urgent to get this fight to the mat. While he had a solid debut in the promotion, that fight with Gerald Meerschaert really has me questioning his striking skills. He made GM3 look like a very skilled kickboxer. I fear that Holland can really hurt de Ridder as this is one of the best strikers he has ever faced. It will likely be one-sided here no matter what as Holland has always struggled when put onto his back. Each round will start on the feet and Holland’s power can hopefully shine through early. Otherwise I expect de Ridder to find takedowns coming easier and easier with each tick of the clock. Thirteen of his eighteen professional wins have come by way of submission and it would not surprise me to see that rate go up here. Getting slight plus money has me leaning the way of Holland but this is one of the tougher fights to predict on the entire card. Kevin Holland by Round Two KO
Nick: Kevin Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight, but he’s fighting at middleweight here against a dangerous grappler in Reinier de Ridder. Reiner de Ridder is primarily a grappler, and his offensive BJJ is extremely high level even by UFC standards. Thirteen of his eighteen professional wins have come via submission. His striking has come a long way over the past few years, but he mostly uses it as a means to drag his opponents to the mat. He secured a win his last time out in his UFC debut over Gerald Meerschaert, but prior to that he was a former ONE Light Heavyweight and ONE Heavyweight Champion. This is a binary match-up in that Holland should dominate on the feet, and de Ridder should dominate on the mat. It’s difficult to trust Holland’s 54 percent takedown defense here, especially up at middleweight. However, I do expect his speed and athleticism will make it difficult for de Ridder to close the distance. This might be my least confident play on the card, but I’m siding with the striker. Kevin Holland by Round One KO

Jailton Almeida -450 vs Serghei Spivac +340

Anthony: The next fight comes at heavyweight between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. Almeida is still going to mow through a lot of lower level heavyweights but I fear those with adequate grappling can present him the same challenge that Curtis Blaydes did. Spivac is an excellent offensive grappler but not anywhere near as good when forced to fight off of his back. I think that Spivac is confident in his own grappling, especially coming off a submission victory by armbar in his last fight. However, Almeida’s strength and jiu jitsu skills will at the very least allow him to control the early portion of this one. Spivac certainly has the ability to toss around and reverse big heavyweights, but Almeida is very much a legitimate blackbelt. He is quicker and more powerful than Spivac but also less reliant on his grappling. Almeida has good kicks and more confidence standing than the Polar Bear. I think this will be the first time we ever see Spivac spending more than a few minutes in bottom position. Almeida is a real threat to hand him his first professional loss by submission. I don’t think many heavyweights challenge him outside of the top five. Jailton Almeida by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jailton Almeida is extremely explosive and athletic for a heavyweight. He has solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Sergey Spivak has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivak averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes, but in this particular match-up it’s likely going to be difficult for him to lean on that part of his game. Heavyweight fights can be volatile, but I do see Almeida as a class above his opponent in this match-up. He’s the much more dangerous striker of the two, much quicker, and far more athletic. As long as he doesn’t find himself on his back, he should cruise to another win. Jailton Almeida by Round One KO

Jamahal Hill -140 vs Jiri Prochazka +115

Anthony: This featured fight comes at light heavyweight between Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill. I am very excited for this matchup between elite strikers desperate for a win. One way or another I am expecting a highlight reel knockout to materialize in this fight. Prochazka last fought six months ago when he challenged Alex Pereira for the title in their rematch. Hill’s last fight was also a loss to the defending champion. I consider Hill the more steady and durable fighter when comparing these two. He is not as skilled offensively as Jiri but Hill is a consistent performer with great boxing skills and heavy hands. I do not like the way Hill navigates himself around the octagon, plodding forward and standing very heavy on his feet. Prochazka is much more agile and quick at maneuvering in and out of striking range. He is a step quicker than Hill and it will be interesting to see how these two manage distance against one another. Prochazka will have more opportunities to land that seminal blow given his aggression, but he could also eat some big counters from Hill as he is moving in. I am very worried that the straight shots from Hill get to Prochazka yielding a knockdown. Nonetheless I think Prochazka is the more skilled athlete and at plus money I feel obligated to back him. The best bet here is laying odds that this fight does not go the full distance. One of these two is almost certainly going to sleep. Jiri Prochazka by Round Two KO
Nick: Jiri Prochazka, a former division champion, tends to come out aggressive in his fights, making big movements around the cage and swinging wildly. He has shown stellar power and an ability to close the distance on his opponents both quickly and violently. He sometimes over-exerts on punches in exchanges and leaves himself open to counter shots, but he’s as dangerous of a fighter as there is in the world at 205 pounds. Five of Jamahal Hill’s last six wins have come via KO. He is averaging more than 7 significant strikes landed per minute. He has outstanding speed and footwork for a light heavyweight. He works well behind his jab and does an excellent job mixing power into his lengthy combinations. He’s a gifted counter-striker, carrying an impressive +3.67 strike differential so far in the UFC. He has underrated offensive grappling ability, and his takedown defense sits at a respectable 73 percent. As dangerous as Prochazka is, he absorbs more strikes than he lands. He’s certainly live to find a KO in this match-up but Hill is the better technical striker and I expect he’ll find a finish on the counter. Jamahal Hill by Round Two KO

Umar Nurmagomedov -280 vs Merab Dvalishvili +220

Anthony: The co-main event decides the bantamweight championship as Merab Dvalishvili will face Umar Nurmagomedov. This feels like a bit of a coronation for Umar who enters this title fight undefeated. He is the complete package blending elite, Dagestani wrestling with some of the division’s best striking. His boxing is much better than Dvalishvili, landing shots with much more consequence. His kicks are extremely fast, rising and landing on opponents as quickly as a jab. Dvalishvili will be looking to pressure forward in this fight and challenge Umar’s takedown defense. I think that perhaps Merab will score takedowns and find some early success here but it is hard to imagine his normal gameplan working with great effect against Umar. When facing Sean O’Malley we saw Merab constantly pressuring forward and wrestling because there was no threat of him being swept or caught in scrambles. Nurmagomedov will provide much more resistance as Dvalishvili looks to wrestle here. He has never been beaten and I think Merab will struggle to hurt him at any point in this one. Merab is also being ushered into this title defense a bit quickly. It appears he is still recovering from a right leg injury sustained in that last fight. These odds are disrespecting the champion quite a bit but I do feel Nurmagomedov will do enough to take the belt here this evening. And New. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Nick: Umar Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this match-up, as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a protege/cousin of Khabib Numagomedov. He’s undefeated at 18-0, and a creative striker with excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks. He’s an excellent wrestler as well, but he has found a lot of success on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. While many still feel he is somewhat untested at the highest level, he’s coming off a dominant decision win over Cory Sandhagen who many regard as one of the best in the world at 135 lbs. Merab might be the best pure wrestler on the roster at bantamweight. He has shown an ability to score takedowns from a wide range of positions, as he’s set multiple UFC records for most takedowns in a fight. Dvalishvili averages more than 6 takedowns per 15 minutes. He almost always leans on his grappling to control position so most of his wins come via decision. He has strung together eleven consecutive victories under the UFC banner, most recently dominating Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 where he captured the Bantamweight Championship. Merab should have a cardio advantage here, but it has been a long time since he’s faced a wrestler on Nurmagomedov’s level. I expect this fight will be competitive early, but at some point Nurmagomedov should be able to damage the champion in a lengthy exchange. Additionally, Nurmagomedov does have underrated submission ability if and when this fight hits the mat. And New. Umar Nurmagomedov by Round Four KO

Islam Makhachev -1200 vs Renato Moicano +750

Anthony: Just 24 hours ago, news broke that Arman Tsarukyan would not be challenging for the lightweight title. Islam Makhachev will instead be defending his title here against Renato Moicano on short notice. Instead of a rematch and opponent Makhachev has studied and game planned for, he will now face a dangerous Brazilian that was also scheduled to fight at this event. Makhachev is truly the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport right now and a willingness to always face anyone on moments notice further solidifies his legacy. A win for him today would set the record for the most title defenses at 155 pounds. Makhachev can give Moicano a lot of problems while striking, boasting dangerous weapons out of the southpaw stance. I would expect a kick heavy approach from Makhachev here as he looks to prevent Moicano from closing distance and entering a range where he can box. Makhachev was probably not going to throw quite as many kicks against the grappler Tsarukyan. Moicano is comfortable when it comes to grappling but his jiu jitsu is no match for the champion’s strength and elite wrestling. Makhachev also has easy access to the single leg takedown if he would like to initiate the grappling against Moicano. Surely he will slice through Moicano’s guard and end this fight early if these two do hit the mat. I do not think Moicano’s wrestling is anything near the level of Makhachev. Even if he puts together a solid ten minutes to start here, I trust Makhachev to take over in the championship rounds. And Still. Islam Makhachev by Round Two Submission
Nick: Islam Makhachev is the current UFC Lightweight Champion, and one of the most talented fighters on the roster. He is a decorated grappler as a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He pushes a serious pace and has enough wrestling ability to take almost anyone in this division down repeatedly. Makhachev has underrated striking, knockout power and clear draw for the promotion. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he can be highly effective when he does. Renato Moicano is filling in as the title challenger here for the injured Arman Tsarukyan. Moicano is an advanced BJJ black belt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. He comes into this fight on an impressive four-fight winning streak, most recently securing an impressive upset win over Benoit Saint Denis by TKO. As talented as Moicano is, Makhachev is the better fighter everywhere in this match-up. The short notice nature of this match-up favors Makhachev as well, as he’s already secured wins over opponents with similar styles as Moicano. The line feels a bit wide, but Makhachev has an argument for being the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He should dominate on the mat and land the bigger shots in striking exchanges. And Still. Islam Makhachev by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com