UFC Fight Night Tampa Full Card Analysis

UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley – 12.14.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley. This is the year’s final UFC event and we should be in for a great show here in Tampa. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 312-187-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
Nick: 308-191-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-13-2024 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Josefine Knutsson -250 vs Piera Rodriguez +200

Anthony: Opening the card is this women’s strawweight fight between Josefine Knutsson and Piera Rodriguez. Knutsson enters the bout still undefeated, coming off another win in her sophomore appearance. Knutsson comes from Allstars Training Center and blends her martial arts well. Her kickboxing skills are established and thus far in the UFC we have certainly seen her hold her own on the mat. Rodriguez makes her matchups interesting on the ground but I see very few areas she can capitalize against Knutsson. Rodriguez is the older athlete by four years and coming off consecutive losses. I think she will for once meet a woman her size but Rodriguez is likely to still get overwhelmed here in striking exchanges. This fight has not seen a high volume of betting and I think that is because there is too much risk. Rodriguez is a live underdog but one would figure Knutsson wins this fight on most nights. Josefine Knutsson by Decision
Nick: Josefine Knutsson is decent on the feet, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She has a solid wrestling base, but she seems to grapple to maintain position over chasing submissions. She is 7-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a decision win over Julia Polastri. Piera Rodriguez is a dangerous and aggressive striker with five of her nine professional wins coming via KO. Rodriguez is a tough and aggressive fighter who does her best work when she can push forward and pressure her opponents. She throws well timed strikes, she’s defensively sound, and against inferior opponents she can win off her excellent athleticism and speed. In spite of these strengths, she’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in her career. This is a low level match-up and thus a volatile fight to predict. Still, I do see Knutsson as the rightful favorite. She’s the more well-rounded fighter here, and she should have a considerable advantage in both size and strength. Josefine Knutsson by Decision

Davey Grant -120 vs Ramon Taveras +100

Anthony: Next is a good scrap at bantamweight between Ramon Taveras and Davey Grant. This fight has the closest odds of the event and I think it will likely be a back and forth war. Grant is a savvy veteran that normally fights great in a bloody and hectic third round. He should have a slight cardio edge in this fight and as these two get after it Grant is always very dangerous with his hands. Taveras does not seem like the most talented prospect but he fights an aggressive style with good distance control. Grant will likely pressure heavily in this fight to put forth a pace Taveras cannot keep. However, Grant is also coming off a neck surgery and a tough loss in his last appearance. I think he certainly has the grit and will to win here but Taveras is going to be a step quicker and likely land the best shots early. I also believe Taveras can defend just fine against any takedown attempts from Grant. He does well posting on his opponents for position and landing the cleaner strikes on each break. Ramon Taveras by Decision
Nick: Ramon Taveras is 10-2 professionally, with five of his nine wins coming via KO. He’s well-rounded, but prefers to strike. He’s extremely aggressive and dangerous offensively, but his hyper aggressive style leaves him susceptible to be countered in exchanges. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut over Serhiy Sidey, but many felt he was gifted the win by the judges in that spot. Additionally, this match-up with Davey Grant represents a considerable step up in terms of level of competition for him here. Davey Grant is a well-rounded fighter who manages to outmuscle most of his opponents at bantamweight. His striking is somewhat unconventional, but he carries surprising power. He has a solid wrestling base and does a good job in the ground and pound department if he can take his opponent to the mat. He does a good job moving out of range after throwing combinations and his footwork is solid in spite of his unconventional style. The one knock on Grant is that he’s not an active fighter. He has been out of action since July of 2023 and at 38-years old he’s one of the older fighters in the division. Taveras is the younger and more athletic fighter here, but I still expect Grant to get it done. Even late in his career, he’s going to be the more skilled fighter no matter where this one goes. Taveras has power, but as long as Grant stays defensively sound I expect he can secure a convincing decision. Davey Grant by Decision

Miranda Maverick -590 vs Jamey-Lyn Horth +440

Anthony: This is a bout at women’s flyweight between Miranda Maverick and Jamey-Lyn Horth. Maverick is a sizeable betting favorite as she looks to extend her current winning streak to four. She earned two victories already this year beating Dione Barbosa and Andrea Lee. Maverick’s striking has consistently been improving but it is of course when wrestling that she finds most of her success. Maverick is averaging 2.43 takedowns landed per fight with a high rate of accuracy on her double leg attempts. Fighting out of the southpaw stance allows Maverick to slip opponent punches and easily get to their legs. Her style is very similar to the card headliner Colby Covington. Horth is big and strong with the edge boxing against Maverick but I doubt she gets to fight at a range she likes for very long. Horth has been taken down at least once in every UFC appearance. She is a gritty fighter but I do not see her having much success here facing such a talented wrestler. This is likely to be a Maverick win by stoppage or unanimous decision. Miranda Maverick by Round Two KO
Nick: Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. Still, she carries a lot of momentum into this match-up as she’s currently on a three-fight win streak. Horth is 34-years old, and 7-1 professionally. She’s coming off a win over Ivana Petrović in a fight that took place just over a month ago. She seems fairly well-rounded when you watch her on film, but it’s tough to say she has any singular standout skill offensively. That being said, she is big for the division and her cardio and durability are certainly strengths. Simply, Maverick is the much better fighter in this match-up. She’s more skilled no matter where this one goes, I expect her to dominate without much resistance. Miranda Maverick by Round Two Submission

Felipe Lima -260 vs Miles Johns +200

Anthony: We should be in for a good matchup here between Felipe Lima and Miles Johns. This bout is taking place at featherweight despite both men making 135 pounds comfortably in the past. Lima debuted in the UFC at 145 pounds and impressively disposed of Muhammad Naimov who had been 11-2 prior. Lima is a powerful and accurate striker, landing great overhand rights and brutal attacks from this clinch. This muay thai is excellent and in close quarters here fighting Johns I expect Lima to hold the slight edge. His strikes appear to land with much more sting than Miles Johns. It seems likely that Johns would attempt to mix in his grappling here facing Lima. While Lima would prefer to keep this fight standing I trust in his overall skill set on the mat. He defended four of five takedown attempts in his last bout. Johns could wrestle more aggressively here up weight but that still does not guarantee him a win. I expect Lima to have much better moments in this fight and score more significant damage. Johns has been struggling to win fights convincingly, even against lower level opponents. Felipe Lima by Decision
Nick: Felipe Lima is coming off an impressive win over Muhammed Naimov which came in his UFC debut. He carries a solid 12-1 professional record. He hasn’t lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2015, training out of the same camp as Khamzat Chimaev via Allstars in Sweden. Lima generally does a good job fighting moving backwards. He has technically sound striking, a solid understanding of footwork, and his takedown defense has mostly held up to this point in his career. He scored a surprising submission his last time out, which tells us he’s been rounding out his game. He’s certainly a prospect worth keeping an eye on as he enters this match-up at just 26-years-old. Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Johns often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. Johns is a live underdog, but Lima should be able to stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes. He’s the better technical striker, he’ll be the longer fighter here, and I also expect he can look for submissions if Johns does try to take him down. Felipe Lima by Round Three Submission

Sean Woodson -160 vs Fernando Padilla +135

Anthony: Next is a bout at featherweight between Sean Woodson and Fernando Padilla. We should be in for a high volume kickboxing match here with two strikers going at it. I am a fan of Woodson who has great boxing and very fast hands. He is a freak at 145 pounds boasting a 78” reach. For once he won’t be dwarfing his opponent and Padilla is rather tall too. While Woodson did earn a unanimous decision against Alex Caceres last time out, it was certainly closer than those scorecards would imply. More media members scored the fight for Caceres than they did Woodson. His style often leads to closer bouts with Woodson looking to win minutes with his high volume striking. Rarely does he connect with anything too meaningful. Padilla is a live underdog given his more aggressive style and the potential to find a finish in this fight. While it will play out closer than these odds suggest I am going to side with Woodson again here. Not only do I think his striking is pretty but the judges tend to favor his work as well. I think he should be able to outland Padilla by a significant margin. Sean Woodson by Decision
Nick: Sean Woodson is an extremely talented kickboxer as a former Golden Gloves champion. He continues to show improvements in other facets of his game, but he’s still mostly one dimensional. He has a 79-inch reach which is ridiculous for this division, and most of the time he uses it to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He is coming off an impressive and dominant decision win over Charles Jourdain, and he hasn’t lost a fight since June of 2020. Fernando Padilla is a well-rounded fighter who can be dangerous offensively everywhere. Padillia is a decent striker, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and he doesn’t tend to throw or land extended combinations. He has decent power, but he seemingly has trouble closing defense safely. He has shown massive improvement on the feet since breaking into the UFC, but he’d be wise to lean on his grappling in this particular match-up. Nine of Padilla’s sixteen professional wins have come via submission. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired, but he has a dangerous and aggressive BJJ game when his fights hit the mat. Woodson is going to be the better technical striker in the pocket in this match-up, but he does have a habit of fighting down to the level of his opponent. This is a tough fight to call, but I’ll side with the more experienced and proven fighter in Woodson. Padilla is dangerous, but this is a step up for him in terms of level of opponent. Sean Woodson by Decision

Joel Alvarez -420 vs Drakkar Klose +310

Anthony: This should be a great fight at lightweight between Joel Alvarez and Drakkar Klose. Klose has now won four fights in a row and looks very good since returning from injury hiatus. Klose mixes his attacks very well and fights at a steady, measured pace. He continues to develop skills at The MMA Lab and certainly stands as a tough test for anyone outside of the top fifteen. It may be tough for Klose to stick to his gameplan here facing a high volume striker like Alvarez. El Fenomeno is a problem at 155 pounds given his tremendous size and power. In the pocket Alvarez can land combinations quickly while mixing in heavy elbows and lower body attacks. He is an opportunistic grappler, but all of Alvarez’ submission wins come after his opponent has been hurt. He will be looking to score a knockout of Klose as these two stand and trade. As good as Alvarez has looked lately it is difficult to justify betting him at these odds. Alvarez defends just 42 percent of opponent takedowns and those grappling deficiencies are enough to keep me away from this one. Klose has very good BJJ and he may win rounds off Alvarez by simply taking him down. However, Klose has converted just 26 percent of attempted takedowns throughout his career. I do expect him to get picked apart for as long as this fight is standing. Joel Alvarez by Round Two KO
Nick: Joel Alvarez is extremely tall for a lightweight. He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ black-belt with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s coming off a dominant win over Elves Brenner which came back in August. Alvarez is generally inconsistent, but when he’s at his best he’s a tough fight for any fighter in the division. At 31-years old we should continue to see him make improvements, but there have been rumors of him moving up a weight class as he does struggle to make weight at 155. Drakkar Klose has a solid wrestling base, but he is known as a powerful and athletic striker that pushes a serious pace. He’s found success against a quality level of competition, with notable Wins over Bobby Green, Joe Solecki, and most recently Joaquim Silva. Klose is well rounded with decent defensive grappling ability in scrambles. He’s shown quality technique no matter where his fights go, but he is overaggressive at times which can make him vulnerable against less-skilled opponents. Klose has an excellent calf kick and he does a good job grinding his opponents up against the cage. His boxing continues to show considerable improvements, and his power and durability have both shown to be strengths in his overall game. This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts. I prefer the Alvarez side as the bigger and stronger fighter and the more potent finisher in this match-up. I expect Klose will look good early, but before long Alvarez should be able to work him to the mat for a finish. Joel Alvarez by Round Two Submission

Michael Johnson -210 vs Ottman Azaitar +175

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at lightweight between Michael Johnson and Ottman Azaitar. The longtime veteran Johnson is getting a home game here as he fights out of Boca Raton, Florida. He has been alternating wins and losses lately but the 38 year old is clearly still capable of competing at this high level. While I worry about Johnson’s durability and chin he should be able to manage risk here in a bout against Azaitar. In both of Azaitar’s previous octagon appearances he was badly KOd in the very first round. Azaitar himself has thunderous power but his boxing combinations are a bit rudimentary. It will be a challenge for him to overcome a reach deficit here facing Johnson. Not only does Johnson fight long but his 1-2 connects with tremendous accuracy, even when standing at a distance. There is no reason to bet on the underdog here, seeing as his last win came back in 2020. I never want to take Johnson as the betting favorite, but he should excel in this particular matchup. He is faster and much more technically skilled than Azaitar. Michael Johnson by Round Two KO
Nick: Michael Johnson was once considered a future title contender at 155. He has notable wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. That being said, there’s really no denying he’s a shell of the fighter he was in his prime. Johnson is a highly technical southpaw striker but his fight IQ and durability have deteriorated over the years. That being said, he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. Ottman Azaitar enters this match-up at 13-2, coming off back-to-back brutal KO losses. Azaitar is very much a kill-or-be-killed style of fighter. Nine of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He is very dangerous on the feet with true one-shot knockout power, but he seems fairly one dimensional and his cardio seems to deplete quickly if he can finish his fights early. Azaitar is going to be dangerous early here, he always is. However, as long as Johnson remains defensively sound, I expect he can pull away as this fight wears on. Michael Johnson by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Navajo Stirling -850 vs Tuco Tokkos +575

Anthony: The main card begins at light heavyweight with Navajo Stirling facing Tuco Tokkos. This is the UFC debut for Stirling who earned a contract earlier this year on Dana White’s Contender Series. The 5-0 prospect is a very high level kickboxer training with the team at City Kickboxing. I think the 27 year old is very talented with a great build for this weight class. He should have a bright future ahead of him in the promotion, largely dependent on the opponent’s he draws into. Tokkos is not a proficient grappler and I doubt he challenges Stirling here on the mat. He will likely engage with Stirling at boxing range where surely Tokkos will be outclassed. Throughout his fifteen fight career, Tokkos has not shown much in terms of power. He will struggle to overcome what is a seven-inch reach advantage. Stirling uses his length to great effect and lands timely counters on his opponents. He fights similarly to teammate Carlos Ulberg who knows space between him and his opponent is a good thing. While Stirling will take a very measured approach here, it would not surprise me to see a knockout eventually materialize. Tokkos has rather poor head movement and we have seen him stopped on quite a few occasions before. Stirling is my most confident pick for tonight’s event. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO
Nick: Navajo Stirling will be making his UFC debut in this match-up, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO of Phillip Latu back in September. Stirling is 5-0 professionally, but he also has a lot of experience fighting professionally as a kickboxer. He fights out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, where he trains with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, and Carlos Ulberg. Coached by Eugene Baremen, Stirling is a gifted striker who does his best work at range. He is 27-years old, and each of his last four wins have come via KO. Tuco Tokkos broke into the UFC as a late notice replacement for Antonio Trócoli against Oumar Sy. He fell via submission in that promotional debut fight back in May, and at 34-years old there’s no denying he’s getting a late start to his career with the promotion. He’s been inconsistent on the regional scene, but he throws powerful strikes and he has dangerous BJJ offensively when his fights hit the mat. Additionally, it’s expected we’ll see an improved version of him here as he’s been training at KillCliffFC. The line feels wide here as Stirling is unproven at this level. Still, he is the rightful favorite here. I expect he can keep this fight standing long enough to score a flashy knockout in his debut. Navajo Stirling by Round One KO

Daniel Marcos -210 vs Adrian Yanez +175

Anthony: Here we have a matchup at bantamweight between Daniel Marcos and Adrian Yanez. This should be a good test for Marcos who enters a perfect 16-0. It seems that Marcos is now in his prime at 31 with a wealth of combat sports experience. He keeps his composure in the octagon and fights intelligently while maintaining a comfortable distance. Marcos will want to utilize his longer range weapons here against a talented boxer like Yanez. Certainly in terms of speed and volume, Yanez has the edge averaging 6.51 significant strikes landed per minute. However, the knock on Yanez is his poor defensive awareness. Yanez has been eating a lot of clean shots and as a result we’ve seen him finished on two occasions over the past year. Marcos may not hit as hard as Yanez but his chin seems to check out much better. Marcos is also better at keeping his head off of the centerline and pivoting. He should be able to stay out of danger here, retreating from the pocket and landing kicks on the break. While Yanez’ boxing could certainly overwhelm him I do not think there is enough value for me to take a shot on the underdog. This will be a tough fight for Marcos but I imagine he will keep his undefeated record intact. Daniel Marcos by Decision
Nick: Adrian Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have drawn comparisons to a young Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. That being said, he is mostly one-dimensional. His grappling is more of a weakness than a strength and at times he does struggle to defend against leg kicks. Daniel Marcos is 16-0 professionally, and he does a good job throwing lengthy combinations. He’s a decent grappler, but on the mat he’s most content to try to work his way back to his feet (rather than try to advance position.) Eight of his professional wins have come via KO, and while he’s getting a relatively late start to his UFC career as he is 31-years old, it seems he’s still making major improvements from fight to fight. This should be a competitive fight from start to finish. Marcos is dangerous, but I do think Yanez can outstrike him, especially in the pocket. Another low confidence play, but I do see value on the underdog here. Adrian Yanez by Decision

Vitor Petrino -310 vs Dustin Jacoby +240

Anthony: Next is a matchup at light heavyweight between Vitor Petrino and Dustin Jacoby. In his last appearance, Petrino suffered his first professional loss when submitted by the guillotine of Anthony Smith. It was a very dumb decision shooting a takedown on Smith early there but Petrino can hopefully learn from that mistake and bounce back with a victory today. Through five fights in the promotion, Petrino has scored 16 total takedowns. He is effective at converting his double leg attempts and here facing a striker like Jacoby that should be his exact gameplan. I am a fan of Jacoby’s kickboxing. He is an accurate striker that mixes in power shots to great effect. Although Petrino is the harder hitter of these two it will likely be Jacoby connecting more consistently when these two are engaging on the feet. Still, Petrino holds a decisive advantage while grappling and I have to anticipate takedowns here today. He seems like the bigger man at 205 pounds with a very heavy base. Closing the distance and securing takedowns may prove difficult but once Petrino gets himself into top position I am expecting him to stay there. Vitor Petrino by Decision
Nick: Vitor Petrino is somewhat untested against elite level competition, but there’s no denying his overall athleticism or his power in striking exchanges. Seven of Petrino’s eleven professional wins have come via KO. He’s almost always aggressive early in fights. His cardio was a weakness for him earlier in his career, but he has shown major improvements in that facet of his game. He is 4-1 in the UFC coming off an ugly submission loss to Anthony Smith. Against Smith, Petrino made the mistake of leaving his neck out to be caught in a guillotine. He’ll look to bounce back here against another veteran of the division in Dustin Jacoby. Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He’s been inconsistent over his last few fights, but he’s still a tough out for the majority of the division. Petrino is the more potent finisher and the far more athletic fighter in this match-up. Jacoby is capable of pulling off the upset if this fight stays standing, but Petrino should have a major grappling advantage. I expect he’ll take this fight to the mat here, especially coming off a loss. Vitor Petrino by Decision

Manel Kape -375 vs Bruno Silva +290

Anthony: This is a bout at flyweight between Manel Kape and Bruno Silva. Kape returns here after fighting six months ago and losing to the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev. He is a legitimate top ten flyweight given his overall resume and skillset. Kape measures his striking entries well and does great work when boxing against his opponents. Silva seems like an opponent that will certainly oblige Kape standing and bring out the best parts of his game. We should get a very fun few rounds here as these two smaller men slug it out. Silva has won four fights in a row but it is not a surprise to see him as a heavy betting underdog here. While Silva has looked impressive while scoring these finishes, it is important to evaluate the level of competition he is facing. Tyson Name, Victor Rodriguez and JP Buys are not killers that garner much respect. Silva’s only real quality win came in his last time out, facing Cody Durden. Kape seems too quick and talented to get stopped by Silva here. It is also worth noting that Kape has never been knocked out through 26 professional bouts. He is the younger athlete in this matchup and, for once, benefiting from an advantage in reach. Manel Kape by Decision
Nick: Manel Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork, which he uses well to set up his power shots. Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average for the division, but his KO power alone makes him a threat against anyone. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to Mohammed Mokaev, but prior to that he had strung together four consecutive wins. With another win here, he should once again enter the conversation for a title shot at 125 lbs. Bruno Silva is fairly well-rounded with powerful boxing technique and decent offensive grappling ability. He has impressive power in exchanges and he’s excellent out of breaks from close range. He is 14-5-2 professionally, but it seems he is entering his prime. He has seven wins via KO and four via submission. He’s coming off four consecutive wins under the UFC banner and carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Silva can keep this fight close, but I do expect Kape’s advanced speed and footwork to allow him to pull away over the course of three rounds. Manel Kape by Decision

Billy Quarantillo -150 vs Cub Swanson +125

Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at featherweight between Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo. We should be in for a competitive striking matchup for however long this fight lasts. Both men have alternated wins and losses over the course of their last five. Swanson is keeping fights competitive at the age of 41 but honestly I feel he struggles to match Quarantillo’s pace. We have seen Quarantillo run into trouble as he faces skilled grapplers and more potent finishers. Swanson could hurt Quarantillo, but I do not think he has much finishing equity at all here. Apart from a flash knockout Swanson will be up against it facing a younger man with a wider arsenal of attacks. Quarantillo will be a step quicker than Swanson and much more dangerous with his knees and attacks in close. While Swanson averages 4.67 significant strikes landed per minute, Quarantillo sets a crazy pace and lands 7.36 on average. Quarantillo also connects at a higher rate of accuracy, although his defensive numbers are worse. This is a fight I am interested in watching but not one I am betting on. Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Nick: This is one of the more exciting fights on the card, and certainly a contender for Fight of the Night. Quarantillo pushes an outstanding pace. Fourteen of his eighteen professional victories have come via finish, and while he’s been known as a slow starter, he is also known for his knack for finishing fights in the later rounds. He throws a lot of volume in exchanges, and he’s proven to be extremely durable. He’s far past his prime, but Cub Swanson is a legend with wins over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Chad Mendes. He’s one of the more accomplished featherweights in the history of the UFC. Swanson has advanced technical ability both striking and in grappling exchanges. He has advanced BJJ, but he’s most advanced to stand and trade as his punching power is his most notable attribute. At 40-years-old, Swanson’s durability is certainly of some concern here as he was KO’d in two of his last three losses. These are two similar fighters, but Swanson seems further past his prime than Quarantillo does. Another low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. Billy Quarantillo by Decision

Joaquin Buckley -260 vs Colby Covington +200

Anthony: The main event is a good scrap at welterweight between Joaquin Buckley and Colby Covington. It is a good test for the red-hot Buckley facing a staple of the top three such as Colby. This matchup takes place at home for Covington who trains in nearby Miami, Florida. While stylistically he may find some success here it is tough to bet on Covington coming off his most recent performance. He looked flat and apparently injured when facing Leon Edwards for the title last year. He needs to get back to relentlessly shooting takedowns if he does want to win this matchup today. Buckley has showcased very good offensive grappling lately but Covington is by far the best wrestler he has faced. So far Buckley has defended 67 percent of opponent takedown attempts. Given Covington’s tremendous cardio, he would normally be at an advantage taking this fight on three weeks’ notice. However, Buckley has been active the entire year and I feel he is in fine shape entering this bout. Certainly we will see Buckley’s gas tank tested but he does not seem likely to melt and completely fade as this fight goes late. Since making the cut to welterweight, Buckley has won five in a row. Covington will score some takedowns here as Buckley moves forward on him, but I also expect at least one knockdown for Joaquin. He is significantly more powerful than Covington and with very few meaningful strikes coming in his direction I expect to see him throw heat without hesitation. I think he will clip Covington once early but that power should still be there for Buckley late if he needs it. He is such a dangerous southpaw and as evidenced in his last fight against Stephen Thompson, it only takes Buckley one punch. I won’t be betting Buckley as the favorite here but I do expect him to get the better of Covington. Joaquin Buckley by Round Four KO
Nick: He’s far from a fully developed talent, but Joaquin Buckley’s knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing the majority of his skills, but at 30-years old he should continue to improve. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque, and there is no denying he’s found a home in the welterweight division after starting his run in the promotion at middleweight. As talented as he is, he can be overly hesitant at times as he waits to counter. He is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. His cardio and durability seem to have greatly improved since he moved down to welterweight. Additionally, he’s fighting with better IQ as he’s been mixing in his grappling more than ever before. Even at 36-years old, Colby Covington is one of the best wrestlers in the division. He has outstanding cardio, and his high pressure fighting style has melted most of his opponents at 170 lbs. His striking has greatly improved since he made his debut, but he’s still somewhat hittable in exchanges. He does throw a lot of volume and he has shown flashes of power, but his striking is primarily a means to set up his grappling. Covington is coming off a loss to Leon Edwards in which he was challenging for the welterweight championship. Covington seemed somewhat sluggish and reactionary in that fight, so it’s difficult to know exactly which version we’ll see of him here. Buckley is more likely to find the finish here, and given Covington’s inactivity and general inconsistency I understand why this fight is priced where it is. That being said, Buckley really hasn’t been tested against a grappler on Covington’s level. I also like Covington’s ability to weaponize his cardio, which could play a major factor here over five rounds. A volatile fight, and another match-up in which I’m seeing value on the underdog. Colby Covington by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com