UFC Vegas 100: Full Card Analysis & Picks

UFC Vegas 100: Magny vs Prates – 11.9.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 100: Magny vs Prates. Enjoy 11 fun fights this evening as we celebrate 100 shows at The UFC Apex. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 278-171-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
Nick: 273-176-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-8-2024 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Melissa Mullins -260 vs Klaudia Sygula +200

Anthony: The card begins today with women’s bantamweights Melissa Mullins and Klaudia Sygula. Mullins was overweight by a pound yesterday, forfeiting a portion of her purse to Sygula. It is the promotional debut for Sygula who, like Mullins, previously competed in IMMAF. The 25 year old has accrued a wealth of experience overseas but the competition she has faced is less than stellar. None of Sygula’s wins have come against anybody on this level. Mullins will be a good test to see exactly what Sygula is made of. She has proven to be a very tough opponent with good pressure when it comes to engaging on the mat. Sygula has showcased some grappling skills of her own but Mullins could prove to be too strong and heavy. On the feet I am expecting a rather competitive matchup with Sygula actually landing quicker and more frequent strikes. This could end up being a very close decision if Mullins competes with Sygula at kickboxing range. Mullins would be wise to lean on her size here and bully Sygula instead in the clinch. Klaudia Sygula by Decision
Nick: Melissa Mullins is 6-1 professionally, with three of those six wins coming via KO. As impressive as her record is, Mullins hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Additionally, at 33-years old it does seem she’s getting a late start to her professional career. She is primarily a grappler, who is also a decent striker at range. She has a solid understanding of footwork and underrated offensive BJJ. Her takedown entries aren’t great, but she is capable of dominating if she can find herself on top of her opponent. She is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off the first loss of her professional career, via KO to Nora Cornolle. Klaudia Sygula is 6-1 professionally, 25-years old, and she’ll be making her UFC debut in this match-up. She is relatively well rounded, with two wins coming by KO and one by submission. Sygula is decent everywhere, but she’s somewhat awkward in her approach. Additionally, there’s a chance she’ll be outmuscled by a good portion of her division. This is a low confidence play, but I expect Mullins’ size and grappling ability to be enough for her to secure a win here. Mullins missed weight for this fight, but she looked fine on the scale and I already expected she’d outsize her opponent. Melissa Mullins by Decision

Tresean Gore -175 vs Antonio Trocoli +145

Anthony: This is a bout at middleweight between Antonio Trocoli and Tresean Gore. When Tresean Gore emerged from The Ultimate Fighter he was still an incredibly green athlete with some mammoth potential. I think he has a very high ceiling despite only now having his 7th professional fight at the age of 30. Gore has spent the past two years training his skills and recovering from injuries. He seems to be entering this fight in great form and prepared to display the new techniques he has learned. I’d expect Gore to set a modest pace here early, engaging Trocoli in the pocket with his boxing and kicks. Trocoli is a tough opponent with good wherewithal on the feet but Gore certainly has the power to rock him. Trocoli is taller and much longer on the feet but he is not as technically skilled. Gore is also very powerful, allowing him to navigate any grappling exchanges he may find himself in versus the Brazilian. He implements jiu jitsu well in his fights despite lacking much traditional BJJ training. Though Trocoli could find himself leading this fight late, that will only be the case if he can stay out of trouble in the early going. I am expecting Gore to find a finish with his hands here in round one or two. Trocoli has been stopped twice before. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO
Nick: Tresean Gore has serious power in his strikes, but he’s known to have a solid wrestling base well. He comes into this match-up with a suspect 4-2 professional record, and there is a chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot as he’s been out of action since October of 2022. Gore almost always looks dangerous early, but he’s overly willing to eat shots in exchanges. Antonio Trocoli enters this fight with a 12-4 record at 33 years-old. He is relatively well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. Five of his wins have come via submission and four have come via KO. He’s coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Shara Magomedov, but he took that fight on short notice against one of the rising prospects in the division. Trocoli is certainly capable of pulling off an upset here, but it’s tough not to expect Gore to have improved considerably during his extended time away from competition. He’s certainly the better athlete in this match-up, and given the generally low level nature here, I expect that’s enough for him to find a finish. Trocoli’s defense is suspect at best, and Gore’s aggression should give him trouble. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO

Da’Mon Blackshear -300 vs Cody Stamann +240

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Cody Stamann and Da’Mon Blackshear. This is a very compelling matchup with both men often doing their best work on the mat. Each enters this fight on an 0-2 skid and desperately needs this win to ensure their job security. Blackshear has had a really meek promotional tenure as we now reflect on those six bouts. He is not a high action fighter, throwing strikes with limited power and slowly maneuvering through positions on the mat. Blackshear’s length could give him the edge in scrambles with Stamann but it could also be to his detriment. Stamann is a very good wrestler with a lower center of gravity. He has solid submission defenses and also much heavier hands. It could be difficult for Blackshear to contain Stamann here for very long at all. Stamann also boasts 76 percent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate when this fight hits the mat. I expect him to sweep some of these attempts from Blackshear and likely hang tough in what is a tough fight to score. At these odds I think Stamann qualifies as a solid value bet. This will likely be a fight that sees the scorecards and I would much rather be holding a plus money ticket if it does. Cody Stamann by Decision
Nick: Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s 2-3-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off a brutal KO loss to a rising prospect in Montel Jackson. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He’s dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and nine of his fourteen professional wins have come via submission. He does a decent job striking at range, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. Additionally, his durability has to be in some degree of question as he’s coming off a loss via brutal KO. Cody Stamman is well rounded, but his greatest strengths are his powerful wrestling base and excellent takedown ability. He’s decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via controlling position against inferior grapplers. He’s fought the better level of competition compared to his opponent in this match-up, but there is no denying his athleticism has been regressing. Stamman is coming off back-to-back losses, and there’s a chance he’ll be fighting to hold his roster spot here. Stammann’s age and desire to fight are both concerning to a degree, but he should have enough of a technical advantage here to keep this fight close. At this current price, all of the value is on the underdog. Stamann is a solid wrestler with a power and durability advantage here. As long as his cardio is in check, I expect he can pull off the upset. Cody Stamann by Decision

Charles Radtke -165 vs Matthew Semelsberger +140

Anthony: This should be a competitive bout at welterweight between Charles Radtke and Matthew Semelsberger. Radtke fought Carlos Prates in his last appearance and lost in round one after numerous shots to the body. Radtke is comfortable when striking, using his length and kicks to chip away slowly against his opponents. Prates proved too much for Radtke but this matchup against Semelsberger is much more favorable. Semelsberger has lost three straight fights and four of his previous five. His boxing can be effective from both stances but Semelsberger struggles to close out when he has a lead. He has landed seven knockdowns since 2022 but not a single win by stoppage. Radtke should get the better of Semelsberger as this fight plays out. He seems to have much better cardio and Radtke holds the grappling edge over Semelsberger as well. I believe he is fairly priced here as the slight betting favorite. Charles Radtke by Decision
Nick: Charles Radtke is a relatively well-rounded fighter who does a good job honing in on the weaknesses of his opponents. He is 9-4 professionally, coming off an ugly KO loss to card headliner Carlos Prates. Radke is 34-years old, and can be dangerous wherever his fights go. Still, there is no denying his aggressive style makes him a volatile fighter to back as a favorite. Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights via early KO. He’s 5-5 in the UFC, but coming off three consecutive losses. At his best, Semelsberger does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat. While there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. This is a low level match-up between similar fighters, but I do see Radtke as the rightful favorite. Simply, he seems hungrier and more likely to show improvement, as Semelsberger’s skills have been regressing dramatically. Charles Radtke by Round Two KO

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -800 vs Zach Scroggin +550

Anthony: This is a fight between Zach Scroggin and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The booking comes on short notice as Zaleski was originally slated to face Nicolas Dalby this evening. Scroggin enters this fight 7-0 but seemingly biting off more than he can chew. The Kansas native has been active, fighting and training rigorously but it seems he is joining the sports a bit too late. Scroggin has been developing a grappling heavy attack that has proved effective when fighting against regional cans. It will be very difficult for Scrogging to implement that gameplan here facing such a savvy veteran. It is telling that Zaleski was lined up at even money against an admirable counterpart like Nicolas Dalby. Scroggin simply cannot compete with Zaleski on the feet. I imagine we see a very urgent Scroggin look to get this fight down to the mat where he feels he has a chance against the BJJ black belt. While at 37 years old Zaleski is starting to slow, he is still a notable power threat with 14 professional wins by knockout. I expect Zaleski to put on a show here and quickly stop the oncoming Scroggin. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Round One KO
Nick: Zach Scroggin will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on very short notice as a replacement for an injured Nicolas Dalby. Scroggin is 7-0 professionally, but his professional wins have all come against an extremely suspect level of opponent. It seems he’s primarily a striker with decent BJJ, but there’s no denying there’s a serious chance he’ll be significantly outmatched in his debut here. Zaleski dos Santos is one of the more creative strikers in this division. He does an excellent job throwing and landing wild spinning attacks. He’s a powerful puncher, and he does a good job mixing explosive kicks into his combinations. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but he does struggle at times to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. Simply, Zach Scroggin is likely running into a buzzsaw here. Zaleski dos Santos’ career is on a bit of a decline, but he’s still levels above Scroggin everywhere. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Round One KO

Denise Gomes -550 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +400

Anthony: This is a fight at women’s strawweight between Denise Gomes and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. A gap of 15 years separates these two fighters with Kowalkiewicz entering tonight’s contest at 39 years old. It seems that time is running out for Kowalkiewicz who has been a staple of Polish fighting for quite some time. She is coming off a loss in her last bout when facing Iasmin Lucindo. Now Kowalkiewicz draws into another tough Brazilian that can match her motor and speed. Kowalkiewicz is not the fighter she once was, overwhelming opponents with her volume. While Gomes is not as technically skilled as Kowalkiewicz she has proven capable of winning a decision. This will likely be a fight decided by judge’s preference, with Kowalkiewicz landing more strikes while Gomes connects with all the power. It would also be wise for Gomes to shoot a takedown here to test Kowalkiewicz’ defenses and ability to get up. I would not risk betting on Gomes as such a massive favorite although she should win. Denise Gomes by Decision
Nick: Gomes fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. She’s still making major improvements to all facets of her game at just 24-years old, but there’s no denying her skills are rough around the edges. Kowalkiewicz is sharp on the feet. She pushes a serious pace and does a good job stringing together effective combinations. Kowalkiewicz lands more than five significant strikes per minute, but she tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. She has shown improvements in her grappling abilities over the years, but she still finds most of her success just fighting her opponents at range. Gomes is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Kowalkiewicz can survive the first round and then start to take over this fight. She’ll have to mix in her grappling to have a chance, but at this price it’s an underdog shot I’m more than willing to take. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Mansur Abdul-Malik -450 vs Dusko Todorovic +340

Anthony: The main card begins with fireworks at middleweight at Mansur Abdul-Malik will face Dusko Todorovic. Abdul-Malik emerges from Dana White’s Contender Series and makes his debut here today. The man has a very thin resume but the pure physical skill is clear. His latest victory over Wes Schultz was certainly his career best. I think Abdul-Malik will struggle against more technically sound opponents but Todorovic is certainly a guy that he can beat. Todorovic does not have many great wins either. The Serbian is a bit of a brawler with tendencies to engage early in the pocket. He is very confident in his muay thai but Todorovic rarely moves his head off the centerline. He is the betting underdog here due to many lapses on defense. Abdul-Malik will make Dusko feel his power very early in this matchup. Benefiting from a six-inch reach advantage should let Abdul-Malik land a lot without eating punishment in return. Todorovic can match him in terms of his power but I am not confident that his chin will hold. Mansur Abdul-Malik by Round One KO
Nick: Mansur Abdul-Malik will be making his UFC debut here, with a 6-0 professional record, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Wes Shultz back in August. At 27-years old, all of Abdul-Malik’s wins have come via finish. He’s an explosive athlete with an 80” reach. Primarily a striker, Abdul-Malik has found most of his success overwhelming his opponents with pressure. Dusko Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. He has been out of action since March of 2023, following a brutal knee injury he sustained in a loss to Christian Leroy Duncan. The line feels somewhat wide here, but given the lapses in Todorovic’s defense, it seems fairly likely Abdul-Malik will have plenty of chances to find an early finish. Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO

Gillian Robertson -400 vs Luana Pinheiro +300

Anthony: This is a fight at women’s strawweight between Luana Pinheiro and Gillian Robertson. It seems like a rather obvious pick given the recent performances from both women. Pinheiro has lost both previous appearances via finish. In May, Angela Hill was able to submit Pinheiro with a mounted guillotine choke. I expect Robertson to slice through Pinheiro like butter if a striker like Hill was able to work her on the mat. Robertson is a black belt in BJJ with seven wins by submission in the UFC. Her best showings have come recently with wins in six of her previous seven showings. Robertson has excellent timing when it comes to attempting and executing her takedowns. While Pinheiro has a slight lead on Robertson when standing, this is going to be hell for her on the ground. Pinheiro does not have the strength or takedown defense to escape the inevitable here. I am betting Robertson via submission rather than playing her straight at -400 odds. I am very confident predicting that she will win today. Gillian Robertson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with nine of her fourteen professional wins coming via submission. Her striking continues to improve, and having recently moved down to strawweight she’s no longer outsized by the majority of her opponents. She seems to be entering her athletic prime, and she enters this match-up having won four of her last five fights. Luana Pinheiro is 3-2 in the UFC, with wins over Sam Hughes and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She is relatively well-rounded. She puts out decent volume on the feet and if she can drag her opponents to the mat she has dangerous offensive grappling ability. She’s coming off back to back losses for the first time in her career, mostly recently falling via submission to Angela Hill. Pinheiro has struggled against grapplers, and Robertson might be the best grappler she’s faced in her career. As long as Robertson finds safe entries for takedowns, I expect she’ll dominate this fight on the ground. Gillian Robertson by Round One Submission

Cortavious Romious -220 vs Gaston Bolanos +180

Anthony: This is a bantamweight matchup between Cortavious Romious and Gaston Bolanos. We should be in for a good clash here as these two styles meet one another. Romious is making his debut here today after earning a contract just over two months ago. He has shown me a much more complete skill set than what Bolanos has displayed to this point in his career. Bolanos has very solid boxing and kickboxing but he tends to struggle as bouts hit the mat. Bolanos was also on the wrong side of a striking match in his most recent showing, losing to Marcus McGhee by TKO. Romious does not necessarily have the skills to match Bolanos standing but he will certainly keep composure there. He’s a stout and very strong bantamweight, often using his wrestling and grappling to win. I expect we see Romious with a decisive edge over Bolanos when this fight hits the mat. I think these odds are only warranted if you compare the jiu jitsu skills of both men. This is not a fight that I will be confidently betting on. Cortavious Romious by Round Two Submission
Nick: Cortavious Romious will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Michael Imperato back in August. Romious is 9-2 professionally, and he enters the promotion in his athletic prime at 30 years-old. He’s fought a decent level of regional opponent, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against UFC level competition. Gaston Bolanos is 7-4 professionally, coming off an ugly KO loss to Marcus McGhee back in January. Bolanos is 1-1 in the UFC, but most of his career has been spent fighting in Bellator. His MMA resume is somewhat uninspiring, but he’s also had a solid professional run in both Muay Thai and kickboxing. If this fight takes place at striking range, Bolanos will be a very live underdog. He’s gifted offensively and does a good job countering both at range and in the clinch. Romious is the much better grappler in this match-up, but I do expect Bolanos can find a way to keep things standing long enough to find a timely KO. Romious has a stylistic advantage here, but Bolanos is the far better striker and the more experienced fighter in this matchup. Gaston Bolanos by Round One KO

Reinier de Ridder -300 vs Gerald Meerschaert +240

Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at middleweight between Gerald Meerschaert and Reinier de Ridder. This is the UFC debut for de Ridder who signs after a ten-fight run in ONE. He is a very skilled athlete with his only career losses coming to two time champion Anatoly Malykhin in bouts at heavyweight and 205 pounds. He has long awaited a shot at gold here and dream becomes a reality starting today. Meershaert is a fun draw for de Ridder in his debut match. Both men are very talented grappler with Meerschaert boasting 29 professional wins by submission. The 36 year old won by choke once again stopping both Bryan Barberena and Edmen Shahbazyan this year. The key when facing Meerschaert is not allowing him to build in rounds two and three. De Ridder will be looking to engage with Meerschaert early when his speed advantage is more pronounced. While de Ridder is certainly confident in his offensive grappling he is also very good with his hands. It would not surprise me to see Reinier look to put his striking on display here facing such a skilled BJJ black belt. He has excellent Fight IQ and generally sticks to his gameplan. At these odds it is tempting to take Meershaert but I do not think he finds much sustained success today. Reinier de Ridder by Round Two Submission
Nick: Reiner de Ridder will be making his UFC debut here, but he’s already composed an impressive professional resume in MMA. The former ONE Light Heavyweight and ONE Heavyweight Champion, de Ridder held both titles simultaneously and he’s going to be fighting down at middleweight here as he makes his promotional debut. De Ridder is primarily a grappler, and his offensive BJJ is extremely high level even by UFC standards. Twelve of his seventeen professional wins have come via submission. His striking has come a long way over the past few years, but he mostly uses it as a means to drag his opponents to the mat. Gerald Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ black belt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired and his wrestling ability is questionable at best. The price feels wide here as both of these fighters are extremely similar. That being said, I find myself siding with the favorite. De Ridder has a lot to prove here, and while Meershacert has faced the higher level of competition, it is significant that de Ridder has found success in multiple weight classes. Whether on the feet or the mat, I expect the favorite’s strength to prove significant. Additionally, de Ridder has a much better gas tank. Reinier de Ridder by Round Three Submission

Carlos Prates -800 vs Neil Magny +550

Anthony: The main event is a welterweight bout between Carlos Prates and Neil Magny. Since getting signed off Dana White’s Contender Series, Prates has earned three Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC. The three knockouts for Prates have come thanks to great technique and poise. Prates is really a treat to watch with pinpoint accurate striking. He uses length as a weapon with no wasted movement and delivery on his punches that is just so fluid and clean. Magny is an opponent that matches Prates’ length but does not use it nearly as well. At kickboxing range, Prates will do what he does best and pick apart Magny. This fight will be decided by Magny’s urgency to engage with Prates in the clinch. He has been known to grind out wins and hold opponents against the fence for as long as needed. Perhaps he will implement a similar game plan here today. Although Magny would be favored over Prates as this fight enters rounds four and five, Magny will need to survive quite long before he can rely purely on his cardio. Prates will see another knockout materialize if Magny cannot stop the offensive onslaught standing. Prates will mix his attacks and hurt Magny with his kicks and his crisp muay thai. He also could perhaps score a takedown of his own given Magny’s porous takedown defense. While Magny provides a tough test for all rising stars, this is a perfect matchup for Prates. He will steal the show with a finish in tonight’s main event. Carlos Prates by Round Two KO
Nick: Carlos Prates is 30 years old with a 20-6 professional record. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2019, and he’s fought against a decent level of competition even before he made it to the UFC debut. He’s coming off impressive KO wins over Charles Radke, Trevin Giles, and most recently Li Jingliang. He starts slow in most of his fights, but he’s extremely accurate and generally does a good job landing for timely KOs. Prates fights very loosely in his approach. He throws a lot of kicks, and his long frame can make it difficult for opponents to take him down. His striking defense seems solid, but he does move straight back at times which can leave him open to be damaged in exchanges. When he’s at his best he works well behind his jab. He fights at a torrid pace and his cardio and durability both seem quality as well. Prates carries a lot of momentum into this fight, but there’s no denying he’s taking a major step up in competition here against a tough vet in Neil Magny. Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has solid grappling ability, but he can struggle to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. The line feels far too wide here given the step up in competition for Prates, but with Magny coming off a recent KO to Mike Morales, it’s tough not to expect Prates can produce a similar result. He’ll need to keep this fight standing, but Prates should be able to break Magny down with leg kicks until he can eventually set him up for a knockout. Carlos Prates by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com