UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Full Card Analysis

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic – 11.16.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic. The event is live tonight from Madison Square Garden and headlined with the world heavyweight championship on the line. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 286-174-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
Nick: 282-178-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-15-2024 at 11pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Veronica Hardy -145 vs Eduarda Moura +120

Anthony: The card begins at women’s flyweight with Veronica Hardy facing Eduarda Moura. This move up weight for Moura should be to her benefit after struggling to make the limit in a few of her previous fights. Moura has the size to last in this division and I certainly see a brighter future ahead of her if those cardio issues are also now resolved. She has showcased good offensive wrestling since getting signed to the UFC. We should be treated to some fun scrambles in this bout with Moura facing the Brazilian jiu jitsu brown belt. Hardy is a very skilled grappler, navigating her weight well and threatening submissions as often as she can. Her quick transitions and flashy style can captivate both judge’s and fighters alike. It would not surprise me to see Hardy put Moura in positions tonight we have never seen her. It also would not be the most shocking if Moura is strong enough to pass through Hardy’s guard. I find this to be a very tough bout to predict with each fighter likely to spend at least some time in top position. I am not confident picking this one but Hardy should take it on the scorecards. Veronica Hardy by Decision
Nick: Veronica Hardy is fairly well-rounded, but she is most credentialed in taekwondo where she carries a blackbelt. She’s a decent grappler offensively, but she seems to get caught at times if she finds herself on bottom of her opponents. She’s coming off three straight wins for the first time since 2016, likely as she’s been refocused in her new marriage. Hardy is the wife of Dan Hardy, one of the sharper minds in the sport. Constantly training under Hardy has certainly boosted her skills, mentality, and general fight IQ. Her striking and general gameplanning have been shown as strengths in each of her most recent wins. Eduarda Moura is 10-1 professionally, and it seems she is rounding into her athletic prime at 30-years old. She is relatively well-rounded with four wins via KO and five via submission. She’s big for the division and competent everywhere, but she has only been fighting professionally since March of 2022. She’s coming off a loss in her UFC debut to Denise Gomes, but she gave a good showing of herself in that fight against a dangerous and well-regarded prospect. This is a low confidence play, but I am seeing value on the underdog here. Moura is a gifted grappler, and she seems to be in the best shape of her life as she’s moving up a weight class. Hardy is the better striker here, but I expect she struggles to keep this one standing. Eduarda Moura by Decision

Oban Elliott -300 vs Bassil Hafez +240

Anthony: Next is a low-level matchup at welterweight between Oban Elliott and Bassil Hafez. Elliott enters on a seven-fight winning streak here but none of his performances have been all that impressive. The Welsh Gangster relies on a grappling heavy gameplan to wear on opponents and test his gas tank against their own. Elliott prioritizes his striking defense and limiting his opponent’s space, forcing exchanges in the clinch and along the fence side. He is a very boring fighter to watch but with some improvements I think his win streak could get extended. Hafez should not be a tough challenge for Elliott to blanket if he so chooses. While Hafez has shown some confidence in his own grappling before I do not think it will stack up tonight against a far superior wrestler. I was very impressed by Elliott outgrappling Preston Parsons in his last fight. He is steadily winning and improving while Hafez has not beaten any decent opponents. Elliott will win this one by submission or decision. Oban Elliott by Decision
Nick: Oban Elliott is 11-2 professionally, having primarily fought for Cage Warriors while fighting out of Wales. Elliott is decent everywhere, but he doesn’t really have any standout skill. He has three wins via submission and two via KO, but he’s somewhat awkward in his approach. He can be hittable in exchanges, and his Fight IQ and general instincts seem inconsistent at best. He is coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, and he has shown consistent improvements in all facets of his game since he made his debut. Bassil Hafez is 1-1 in the UFC, but he’s gained more attention for his loss than he did his win. Coming off a narrow decision win over Mickey Gall, Hafez fell via split decision to Jack Della Maddalena in his 2023 short-notice debut. In spite of that loss, Hafez’s stock rose dramatically following that fight as he fought competitively for three rounds against one of the more highly regarded prospects in the division at welterweight. Hafez is 9-4-1 professionally. He’s well-rounded, with four of his wins coming via submission and one coming via KO. He’s athletic and explosive, but his cardio has been somewhat suspect when he can’t finish his opponents early. The line is wide here, and I’m really not high on Elliott in terms of his overall career trajectory. Still, he has the better cardio in this matchup and the crisper striking. I expect he can stay a step ahead until Hafez starts to slow down. Oban Elliott by Decision

Mickey Gall -145 vs Ramiz Brahimaj +120

Anthony: This is a welterweight showdown between Mickey Gall and Ramiz Brahimaj. It is New York versus New Jersey as fan favorite Gall looks to put on another show. While Gall is not a skilled fighter he always shows up and gives exciting performances. The recent three-fight losing streak has seen Gall fall victim to numerous defensive lapses and poor decisions when grappling. Brahimaj has struggled defending takedowns himself but I am not so certain Gall takes advantage of that. Brahimaj is a great submission grappler and likely the stronger man in this matchup. Injuries have kept Brahimaj’s camps irregular but he looks to be entering this fight in very good shape. I think Brahimaj will find early success with his hands here facing Gall. Mickey keeps his head on the centerline and twice before we have seen him knocked out. Brahimaj does not have great power for this weight but his boxing has really come a long way. Gall is going to be trailing in this fight early and I do not trust him to rally for the win. Brahimaj is one of my more confident picks on this card. Ramiz Brahimaj by Round Two KO
Nick: Mickey Gall is fairly well-rounded, but most would consider him a one-trick pony. His striking is below average compared to other UFC level fighters, but he has decent enough grappling to squeeze out the occasional victory via submission. Gall has never really shown an ability to consistently perform at a top level. While he has certainly improved, he seems to be serving as a gatekeeper in this match-up. Ramiz Brahimaj is primarily a grappler with all nine of his professional wins coming via submission. He usually starts fights aggressive, but if he can’t find the early finish his cardio has been somewhat of a weakness. On the feet, he has sneaky power and he pushes at a good pace. However, he often overexerts while throwing combinations and he seems very willing to take damage in exchanges. This is a volatile and low level match-up, which makes it tough to pick a side with any sort of confidence. I’ll back Gall as the favorite as he should be the bigger fighter with the slightly better striking in this bout. Mickey Gall by Decision

Marcin Tybura -145 vs Jhonata Diniz +120

Anthony: This fight at heavyweight will likely play out as striker versus grappler as Jhonata Diniz will face Marcin Tybura. Diniz has looked solid since joining the promotion and improving to 8-0 as a professional. The former kickboxer has really implemented a style that works to great effect inside the cage. He is patient and great at throwing in combination despite not carrying very much natural power. Diniz will give a bit of size here to Tybura who has more experience facing strikers than Diniz does grapplers. Tybura will certainly test the Brazilian’s takedown defense more than Karl Williams did in his last bout. Diniz will look to land early low kicks and stop the forward movement of Tybura but I think we see at least one takedown in round one. Tybura is an intelligent fighter and although he could get knocked out in this matchup I figure he is the much more skilled combatant. Tybura’s hands pose an equal threat to Diniz and it will likely be difficult for him to keep this fight at the range he’d prefer. There is a clear path to victory if he can stuff the takedowns but I think Diniz is in for a grueling first few minutes. This seems like a big step up in competition for him against a proven gatekeeper. Marcin Tybura by Round Two KO
Nick: Marcin Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he’s really only fallen to the best fighters in the division. He is coming off an ugly loss via submission to Sergei Spivac, but he’s in a much better match-up here against a striker in Jhonata Diniz. Jhonata Diniz is 8-0 professionally, with seven of his eight professional wins coming via KO. At 33-years old Diaz is getting a relatively late start to his MMA career, but he already has an extensive professional kickboxing background fighting for the likes of Glory and WGP Kickboxing. He is 2-0 in the UFC, with wins over Austen Lane and Karl Williams. As impressive as his resume has been so far, this match-up with Lewis represents a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition. As is always the case with heavyweights, this is a very volatile match-up. Diniz will be the better technical striker here, but Tybura’s advantage on the mat represents an even wider gap in skill. Diniz will be dangerous on the feet here, but I expect Tybura to lean on his grappling. I’m also encouraged to back the favorite as he’s been tested against a much better level of competition. Marcia Tybura by Round Two Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

David Onama -900 vs Roberto Romero +600

Anthony: The preliminary card begins at lightweight with David Onama taking on Roberto Romero. This is a short notice booking after Onama was originally scheduled to face Lucas Almeida here tonight. I think it is clear through several UFC fights that Onama belongs and will continue to improve. He is 12-2 as a professional with great athleticism and size for 145 pounds. Onama proves very difficult to push around the cage and his length gives him the edge when fighting at distance. I’m sure he’s even stronger at lightweight. His powerful kicks and heavy hands will likely prove too much for Romero to handle. While Romero has good boxing for a 24-year old, he still has a lot more developing to do before fighting opponents of this caliber. It is a great opportunity for Romero to make a name for himself today but unfortunately I feel he has really bitten off more than he can chew. Onama should look to execute a rather safe gameplan here as such a heavy betting favorite. Grappling was likely a key component in Onama’s camp when facing Alexander. I think he should rely on his offensive wrestling to earn the victory here. David Onama by Round Two Submission
Nick: Roberto Romero will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Lucas Almeida. Romero 8-3-1 professionally, having primarily fought for the Mexican regional promotion in Combate Global. At just 24-years old, Romero does have a decent regional resume. Three of his wins have come via KO and two have come via submission. David Onama is a dangerous striker with explosive combinations and excellent footwork. He does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow his opponents down, he works well at range and he’s shown continued improvements in his grappling abilities as well. He is most recently coming off an impressive win over Jonathan Pearce in which he showed excellent durability. He’s coming off back-to-back wins as he enters this match-up, and given the short notice opponent here it’s tough not to argue he’s taking a considerable step down in terms of level of competition. Romero may have a future in the sport, but this matchup with Onama feels like too much too soon for him here. I expect the favorite to dominate no matter where this one goes. David Onama by Round One KO

Damon Jackson -185 vs Jim Miller +150

Anthony: Next is another lightweight bout between Damon Jackson and Jim Miller. This is the record 45th appearance for Miller in the promotion, last competing at UFC 300 in April. Miller really got pieced up boxing in that matchup against King Green and though he now faces a far less technical striker, I do not feel confident backing him. Miller looks incredibly slow these days when engaging with his hands. He is not quick to react to punches and his own attacks appear more telegraphed. The one factor that makes Miller dangerous in this fight is the early threat of a finish. Jackson has proven a bit chinny in his career and Miller usually gets after it in the first five minutes. Miller is also a very opportunistic grappler with 20 professional wins by submission. Jackson will likely engage with Miller grappling in top position for a large part of this bout. I hope that is the case, as I trust his grappling abilities more than his ability to take a punch. Jackson should hold as the betting favorite thanks to his speed advantage and more steady approach. Miller’s power is the equalizer making this a tough fight to bet on. Damon Jackson by Decision
Nik: Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with eight of his last thirteen wins coming via submission. Jackson is a dangerous fighter offensively. He does a good job targeting the weaknesses of his opponents, but his striking defense and general durability have proven to be more of a weakness than a strength. He’s coming off an ugly loss via decision to Chepe Mariscal, but he has won five of his last eight fights under the UFC banner. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and twenty of his thirty-seven professional wins have come via submission. He has won five of his last seven fights, but he most recently suffered a brutal decision loss to Bobby Green in which he was significantly outclassed at UFC 300. This should be an excellent and competitive fight for however long it lasts, but I expect Jackson’s youth and speed should allow him to pull away here in the second and third round. Another low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. Damon Jackson by Decision

Chris Weidman -115 vs Eryk Anders -115

Anthony: This fight is at middleweight with Chris Weidman facing Eryk Anders. Certainly the crowd in New York will be loving Weidman as he enters the cage. The former middleweight champion is still fighting here at age 40 and Weidman won his last octagon appearance. The victory was rather controversial as Weidman landed numerous eye pokes that certainly compromised Bruno Silva. He looked abysmal overall, moving slowly and failing to convert all but one takedown. I believe that Anders’ great base will allow him to keep this fight standing as well. He has defended 79 percent of his opponent’s takedowns. Anders is a southpaw striker with much quicker hands than Weidman. His power does not seem all too significant but Anders does seem to put forth energy chasing his finishes. I think he is a rather low-level athlete but facing Weidman at this stage of his career seems like a more than fair matchup. Anders is going to be the pick for me as I simply can’t get to the window and bet Weidman. While it would be nice to see him go out on top with a win there is not a clear path to victory here for him. Eryk Anders by Decision
Nick: As a former Alabama University linebacker, Eryk Anders is a gifted athlete. That being said, he lacks the power you’d expect to see coming from his massive frame. He’s a quality striker in terms of technical ability, but he doesn’t always put out enough volume to win over judges on the scorecards. He has decent wrestling ability, but it’s unlikely he tries to lean on that at all in this particular match-up. Even at his advanced age, Chris Weidman is one of the better offensive wrestlers in the division as a two-time NCAA Division I All-American. Weidman held the Middleweight Championship from 2013-2015 after capturing it from UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva. As decorated as he is, there is no denying the fact that Weidman is far past his athletic prime, having undergone multiple surgeries and recently turning 40-years-old. This is another tough fight to call, as it features two inconsistent fighters in the twilights of their respective careers. I’ll take a small shot on Weidman here in front of his home crowd. He’s the better wrestler, and I expect he can out-volume Anders on the feet. Chris Weidman by Decision

Marcus McGhee -130 vs Jonathan Martinez +110

Anthony: The featured prelim is a matchup at bantamweight between Jonathan Martinez and Marcus McGhee. I am very excited to see McGhee perform here against a higher level of competition than he’s faced. Through three fights so far in the UFC, McGhee has earned three stoppage wins and three Performance of the Night bonus. While McGhee trains with a great team at The MMA Lab, he has not shared the cage with anyone as talented as Martinez before. Martinez can match McGhee in terms of his kickboxing and overall striking skills. I am interested in seeing which man can land more consistently from range on the other. Martinez has a slight advantage in terms of his reach and also benefits fighting out of the southpaw stance. McGhee’s first three wins in the UFC have all come against orthodox fighters. He will be challenged here getting different looks and may elect to utilize his grappling more urgently. McGhee is the slight favorite in this matchup and I do like his chances here more than Martinez. McGhee has more finishing equity in my eyes given his power and jiu jitsu skills. I think he will check a lot of kicks from Martinez and keep control of the octagon center. He should be the fresher fighter as this bout gets into rounds two and three. Marcus McGhee by Decision
Nick: Marcus McGhee is 9-1 professionally, 3-0 in the UFC, and coming off a solid KO win over Gaston Bolanos. He’s 34-years old and getting a late start to his UFC run, but he is extremely well-rounded as a technically sound striker with solid wrestling and general grappling ability. He fights out of a solid camp via MMA Lab and in spite of his age, he seems to be entering his athletic prime. Jonathan Martinez is fairly well rounded, but mostly excels on the feet. He’s a traditional boxer with solid head movement and footwork. He throws meaningful strikes and he does an excellent job mixing up his combinations to keep his opponents guessing. He is excellent at striking heavily out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power in spite of his wiry frame. His greatest weapon are his powerful leg kicks, which have become his signature over his last few fights. The fact McGhee is a southpaw, should make it somewhat difficult for Martinez to land leg kicks here. Additionally, McGhee has shown he knows how to check kicks and he’s the much better grappler in this matchup. I don’t like the price, but I expect McGhee can get it done here. Marcus McGhee by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Mauricio Ruffy -900 vs James Llontop +600

Anthony: The main card begins with this fight between Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop. News broke this week that these two lightweights would be competing at 165 pounds instead. Llontop was unfortunately still overweight by less than a pound Friday. He is stepping in on short notice here after Charlie Campbell was forced to withdraw. Ruffy is a 10-1 professional representing Fighting Nerds. He is a superb offensive striker with great timing and combination attacks. Ruffy uses his length well for a lightweight, keeping distance and relying on his speed to get into and out of range. It is a karate stance that tends to give opponents a lot of trouble when it comes to landing consistently. His crisp boxing and hand speed will be a lot for Llontop to overcome on the feet. Ruffy primarily fights orthodox but also feels comfortable switching stances as needed. The extra pounds could be to Llontop’s benefit but really I expect to see him outclassed standing. Llontop could elect to take down this very dangerous striker but his wrestling skills really aren’t great. Ruffy has also grown a lot in terms of his own jiu jitsu skills and defensive wrestling. I do not see him finding much resistance in this matchup. He is a massive favorite for good reason and on short notice I think Llontop fails to perform well against him. Mauricio Ruffy by Round Two KO
Nick: Ruffy is 10-1 professionally, with all ten of those wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Ruffy is an explosive athlete who has shown quality skills on the feet. He has tremendous power for the division, but he’s still somewhat unproven against top level competition. He fights out of an excellent camp via the Fighting Nerds in Brazil, and many have him pegged as a prospect to keep an eye on at lightweight. James Llontop is primarily a striker, with seven of his fourteen wins coming via KO. He’s 0-2 in the UFC, but he gave a good showing of himself his last time out against Viacheslav Borshchev. Llontop is a tough and gritty fighter and he carries decent power in his strikes. That being said, he’s not really on the technical level of Ruffy. Llontop missed weight for this fight, he seems out of shape, and he’s taking this fight on short notice. I expect Ruffy to roll here without much resilience. Mauricio Ruffy by Round One KO

Karine Silva -300 vs Viviane Araujo +240

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight between Karine Silva and Viviane Araujo. I have been impressed with what Silva has showcased, winning her first four UFC fights. The young Brazilian has really showcased good takedown entries and a high rate of accuracy securing her attempted shots. Silva is dangerous on the mat given his submission skills and strength at this weight. She is a compact 125 pounds with good hips and control from top position. Araujo has defended 78 percent of her opponent takedowns but she does tend to lose rounds in which she is grounded. Araujo has won several fights even when ceding takedowns to her opponents. Her striking output is very consistent and against Silva I imagine she can find some success with her hands. I favor the much younger and quicker Silva in this matchup although I believe these odds to be a bit wide. I do not feel confident betting much on Silva as we approach a price of -300. Karine Silva by Decision
Nick: Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is 4-0 under the UFC banner and 18-4 professionally. He BJJ is more advanced than many ranked fighters in the division. She is on an impressive eight fight win streak, but there is no denying this match-up with Araujo represents a considerable step up for her in terms of level of competition. Araujo should have a power advantage here. Her strikes are explosive, she has an excellent front kick and throws powerful combinations. She works well behind her jab and her footwork is advanced. She is a talented offensive grappler as a BJJ black belt, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling base or takedown ability to get the fight to the mat consistently. Araujo has a considerable advantage in experience here, but this feels like two fighters’ who are seeing their careers head in opposite directions. The line is far too wide, but Silva’s skills should be enough to pass this litmus test. Karine Silva by Decision

Bo Nickal -1400 vs Paul Craig +800

Anthony: The featured bout comes at middleweight with Bo Nickal set to face Paul Craig. This is the first notable opponent for Nickal in his ascent to stardom. The three-time NCAA wrestling champion has started his MMA career 6-0 with all of his wins coming by stoppage. Nickal’s dominant wrestling presents an issue for so many opponents who look to engage him on the feet. Craig presents an unique challenge to Nickal as the best grappling test available at the weight. Craig is a BJJ black belt with 13 wins coming by way of submission. He really is a live underdog in this spot given his efficient grappling and veteran presence. Often Craig will take a bit of a beating before turning the tides by catching his opponent’s arm. Nickal should be too comfortable in top position wrestling to get caught in any stupid armbars here. He can reign down short elbows on Craig with confidence if he is stuck in guard. It would be most wise of Nickal to instead fight Craig standing where he holds a rather shocking edge. Craig is a very slow and labored striker while Nickal is quick and improving his boxing each camp. He will look to limit Craig’s space grappling and crowd him with punches while this fight is on the feet. While Craig poses a tough test with his size and grit I think his chin is gone. Bo Nickal by Round Two KO
Nick: Paul Craig has outstanding BJJ, with thirteen of his seventeen professional wins coming via submission. He’s 1-2 since he moved down a weight class to fight at middleweight, and at 36-years old there is no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. His striking defense represents a major hole in his game, and while he does carry some power, his strikes are slow and predictable. Bo Nickal is widely considered one of the best prospects in the sport of MMA. He is only 6-0 professionally, but all of those wins have come via finish. What Nickal lacks in professional MMA experience, he more than makes up for in wrestling credentials. Nickal was awarded the 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy as the nation’s most outstanding collegiate wrestler for that year. He was a finalist in the 2020 Olympic Team trials, and a three-time NCAA Division I National Champion. Nickal trains at American Top Team where he’s been working on his striking extensively with the likes of Mike Brown and Jorge Masvidal. He’s shown to have true one-shot power, he’s an explosive athlete and he’s expected to climb the rankings at 185 rather quickly. Craig is always live for an upset via submission, but against such a gifted wrestler in Nickal, that outcome is unlikely. No matter where this one goes, Nickal should stay a step ahead. The price is a bid ridiculous, but the UFC is using this match-up to build Nickal’s name. Bo Nickal by Round Two KO

Charles Oliveira -260 vs Michael Chandler +200

Anthony: The co-main event is a great scrap at lightweight between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. This fight is a rematch of a UFC 262 bout that saw Charles Oliveira earn the vacant UFC Lightweight championship. After getting rocked in round one, Oliveira was able to rally and finish Chandler with punches at the start of round two. That win saw Oliveira earn one of his record 19 total Fight Night Bonuses. With two high-action fighters like this I am expecting a stoppage early by one man or the other and another bonus tonight. Oliveira is the much better jiu jitsu practitioner, holding the edge over Chandler when this bout hits the mat. Do Bronx is confident with his striking but he cannot enter recklessly against an opponent with Chandler’s power. Chandler is the better pure striker but Oliveira mixes his attacks well and finds great success in the Thai clinch. It is tough to trust Chandler past round one, but for the first five minutes of his fights he is a handful to deal with. Chandler will quickly pressure Oliveira tonight and look to land big hooks as he enters. Oliveira struggled to use his length to keep Chandler at range during their first meeting. He is the rightful favorite in this spot but I do find it hard picking Oliveira to escape this matchup for the second time. He has remained more active lately, nearly beating Arman Tsarukyan earlier this spring. Chandler meanwhile has been sidelined for the past two years in hopes of fighting Conor McGregor. His last appearance was a loss against Dustin Poirier here at Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira by Round One Submission
Nick: This fight represents a rematch of the 2021 UFC 262 Main Event for the UFC Vacant Lightweight Championship. In that fight, Oliveira was almost finished by Chandler early, but managed to survive and then find a finish of his own in a back-and-forth fight with a torrid pace. Charles Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. A former lightweight champion, Oliveira has been out of action since his narrow decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Before he began his career in MMA, Chandler was an accomplished NCAA Division I Wrestler. He’s one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division outside of current champion, Islam Mackhachev. That being said, he’s likely to stand and trade here in a fight fans have pegged as a match-up likely to guarantee violence. Chandler’s fight IQ is more of a weakness than a strength. He’s overly willing to engage in a brawl which has proven to be a detriment to him in the past. He does have a solid wrestling base which he could lean on here if he so chooses, but his cardio could be of concern if he does. This is an extremely volatile match-up between two potent finishers. Oliveira is the rightful favorite as he’s already won this match-up before. He’s more active than Chandler over the past few years, and the more dangerous fighter if this fight hits the mat. That being said, I’m going to take a shot on Chandler here. The line feels far too wide for what should play out chaotically, and it is notable Oliveira almost pulled out of this fight a few weeks ago. This is a low confidence play, but the value is on Chandler here. Michael Chandler by Round One KO

Jon Jones -700 vs Stipe Miocic +450

Anthony: The main event is for the undisputed heavyweight championship as Jon Jones looks to defend against Stipe Miocic. Jones is an unbeaten fighter and one of the best athletes in history. This fight bolsters his claim as the best fighter ever if able to beat an opponent like Miocic. His creativity and elite Fight IQ often give him the edge over opponents. We were promised this bout last year in November but Jones was forced to withdraw due to a pectoral injury. Jones benefits from a four-inch reach edge in this matchup and more diverse striking than Miocic. At this age Jones is likely a step quicker with a wider arsenal of weapons, throwing more kicks than Stipe and finding success in the clinch. Jones always can rely on his wrestling as needed but this seems to be the fight Jones can assert himself as a heavyweight. Miocic tends to oblige opponents in boxing exchanges, even drawing out brawls longer on his own accord. Jones may elect to fight overly cautious against Stipe but even on the retreat I expect his counters to find their home. Ultimately I think it will be Jones’ grappling that gets him the victory today. Miocic has always been a serviceable wrestler but his technique is not nearly as polished as Jones. It does not seem reasonable that Jones is this wide a favorite against the former heavyweight champion. In comparison, Jones was -180 when debuting at heavyweight against Ciryl Gane. Miocic has legitimate takedown defense and the ability to make this a grueling fight with Jones. However, I think that Jones finds a way to get the win as he always has. Throughout his career Jones has abused steroids and cheated any chance he could, I am sure tonight will be no different. He will win in what could be his last ever appearance in the octagon. And Still. Jone Jones by Round Two KO
Nick: Jon Jones will be returning to action here after a near two-year layoff. Widely regarded as one of the greatest competitors in the history of the sport, Jones is 27-1 professionally and 16-0 in title fights, most recently securing the UFC Heavyweight Championship in a first round submission win over Ciryl Gane – which came in his divisional debut. At his best, Jones is outstanding everywhere. He’s a creative and dynamic striker who is beyond outstanding in the clinch. He’s also a talented wrestler who has shown he can take down a wide range of opponents. He has an effective BJJ, and he also does an excellent job controlling his opponents up against the cage. Stipe Miocic should have a technical advantage when this fight takes place at boxing rage. Even at his advanced age, he’s one of the more gifted boxers currently under the UFC banner. He has stellar footwork, outstanding head movement, and while he doesn’t have the type of single shot power we see in other heavyweights, he can pour on damage in combinations and score TKOs on volume. Miocic is arguably the most decorated heavyweight to ever fight for the UFC, but at 42-years old there’s no denying his career is coming to an end. Miocic has been out of action since March of 2021, following a brutal KO loss to Frances Ngannou. This fight should play out much closer than the line suggests, but Miocic is further past his prime than Jones is. I expect the early rounds could be close, but once Jones gets his grappling going he should be able to find a finish on the mat. And Still. Jon Jones by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com