Noche UFC: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili – 9.14.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili. Riyadh Season Noche UFC will feature ten fights and exciting media displays here at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 229-135-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 221-143-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-13-2024 at 7:30pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 7:30pm EST
Raul Rosas Jr -1000 vs Aoriqileng +650
- Anthony: The card today opens with Raul Rosas against Aoriqileng. El Niño Problema represents the future of mixed martial arts in Mexico. The 19-year-old has already fought four times in the UFC, most recently beating Ricky Turcios by submission. It is tough to consider Aoriqileng a step-up in competition compared to previously fighting Turcios or Christian Rodriguez. This seems like a matchup designed to get Rosas a win here the weekend of Independence Day. Aoriqileng is a tough, capable striker but it is impossible to compare his skills to those of Rosas on the mat. His boxing is solid but that brawling style will not work facing an opponent who is eager to close the distance. Rosas does well securing takedowns and forcing his opponents to defend positions. While Rosas himself is not a blackbelt, he has stopped numerous high-level grapplers before. Six of his professional wins have come by submission and I do not expect today’s bout to go any differently. Aoriqileng has defended just 58 percent of opponent takedowns since joining the UFC. Rosas should be able to choke him out here within two rounds of action. I won’t bet him on the moneyline but instead I suggest taking his submission prop. Raul Rosas Jr by Round One Submission
- Nick: Raul Rosas Jr is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He is 9-1 professionally, coming off a solid win via submission over a tough out in Ricky Turcios. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as six of his nine professional wins have come via submission. His striking continues to improve, but he does leave gaps defensively. Additionally, most of the time he’s striking it’s a means to set up takedown entries to take his opponents to the mat. His wrestling ability is effective, but his hyper aggressive style can lead to him gassing out in fights if he can’t find an early finish. This was hyper-evident in the first loss of his career, where he fell to a tough out in Christian Rodriguez back in April of 2023. In that loss, he did a poor job pacing himself. After Rodriguez managed to stay out of danger early, Rosas faded quickly and was then dominated for the bulk of the three rounds. Aoriqileng is extremely aggressive, but when he faces highly technical strikers he sometimes puts himself in danger overexerting himself in exchanges and leaving himself open to counter shots. He throws a lot of volume, landing more than six significant strikes per minute. He absorbs more than seven significant strikes per minute too. He’s a kill or be killed type of fighter and his grappling is below average for the division. Knowing this, it seems obvious the UFC is looking to use him to build up Rosas in this spot. Rosas’ advantage on the mat should far exceed Aoriqileng’s on the feet here. The line is getting a bit out of hand, but stylistically there is no denying that this matchup is one the favourite should win. I expect Rosas to match Aoriqileng’s aggression early, quickly dragging him to the mat where he should be able to work for a finish. Raul Rosas Jr by Round One Submission
Joshua Van -250 vs Edgar Chairez +200
- Anthony: Next we have a scrap at flyweight between Edgar Chairez and Joshua Van. Chairez was originally scheduled to fight Kevin Borjas here before he withdrew. Van steps in on short notice for this bout coming off a loss two months ago. Charles Johnson got the better of Van in that matchup but I think the 22-year-old will learn a lot from those mistakes. He needs to be more aware of his striking defense as opponents close the distance against him. I trust Van more as a flyweight than Chariez who struggled making the 125 pound limit. Chairez is a live underdog here, pairing great boxing with some lethal submissions. The Mexican has a very tight guillotine and it could be smart for him to look at engaging Van in the grappling here. A striking match should favor Van slightly but Chairez is very dangerous with his hands early on. I expect a strong first round out of Chairez before Van starts to take over in this bout. Van is better at stringing together combination punches and taking advantage of his opponent’s defensive woes. Chariez is a very hittable opponent and as this bout wears on I expect him to absorb some significant damage. Van has the potential to find a finish here late. Joshua Van by Round Three KO
- Nick: Joshua Van is 10-2 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Charles Johnson back in July of this year, and he’s taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Kevin Borjas. For a 22-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. Edgar Chairez is 11-5 professionally, a fighter who gained notoriety for a competitive loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice and gave a solid showing of himself against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. His two most recent wins have come via submission, but Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable, but he does take a considerable amount of damage in striking exchanges. The line does feel wide here as Van is taking this fight on short notice coming off an ugly loss, but he is the rightful favorite in this match-up. In a fight I expect will mostly take place on the feet, I expect his technical advantages to shine through offensively as this fight wears on. Joshua Van by Decision
Yazmin Jauregui -550 vs Ketlen Souza +400
- Anthony: This is a matchup at strawweight with Ketlen Souza set to face Yazmin Jauregui. The 25-year-old Jauregui will be getting a lot of shine in this bout as a very bright Mexican prospect. She has performed well in most UFC appearances, displaying very high output striking with success finding her mark. Not all of Jauregui’s strikes connect with power but she does very well managing her fights and picking apart opponents thanks to a decisive advantage in speed. We’ve seen Jauregui before knocked out as a big betting favorite but I am not fearful of Souza’s power in this weight class. Jauregui is the much more technically skilled kickboxer and as this fight plays out she will be the one finding all of the success standing. Effective grappling helped Souza win her most recent fight and I think that is her only path to victory today. Jauregui should be able to clear her easily in what is a bit of a cherry picked matchup. I expect her to put on a clinic here boxing up Souza, and punishing her body and legs with kicks. Yazmin Jauregui by Decision
- Nick: Yazmin Jauregui is 3-1 in the UFC and a former Combate Global Strawweight Tournament Champion. She is 11-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. She is only 25-years old, but she’s already a highly skilled striker with excellent pressure and power. She’s small for the division, but she fights at a torrid pace, she has excellent footwork, and her grappling continues to improve. Ketlen Souza is a former Invicta FC Flyweight Champion. She is 14-4 professionally, with eight of those wins having come via KO. She is coming off a solid decision win over Marnic Mann, improving to 1-1 in the UFC. Souza is primarily a striker and she should have a power advantage in this match-up. Like Jauregui, she prefers to stand and trade, but she could have trouble closing distance and matching Jauregui’s speed and footwork. I expect Souza can keep this close early, but as the fight wears on Jauregui’s technical advantages should shine through. She is the better striker both offensively and this fight should mostly take place on the feet. Yazmin Jauregui by Decision
Manuel Torres -130 vs Ignacio Bahamondes +110
- Anthony: I am excited for this clash between Ignacio Bahamondes and Manuel Torres at lightweight. El Loco has really announced himself by winning all three of his UFC appearances in the first round. He is a very fun fighter to watch, switching stances and aggressively trying to hurt his opponents with strikes. Torres has solid boxing but very good muay thai and close range kicks. He is taking care of the guys put in front of him although I do not rate his resume highly at all. It will be much harder for Torres to stop Bahamondes compared to the likes of Nikolas Motta or Frank Camacho. Bahamondes has proven to have a good chin and striking that could certainly hold up against Torres. While I expect Torres to fight well early in this one, Bahamondes is the much more steady kickboxer and the preferred side for me. The Chilean fighter does well using reach to his advantage and fighting behind his huge frame. Bahamondes should look to keep distance with Torres early and find a home for his counters. He also has two wins by head kick knockout since joining the UFC. I like the underdog although this fight is not one to bet with any confidence. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Three KO
- Nick: Manuel Torres is dangerous on the feet offensively, but he eats a lot of damage in exchanges. Regardless, he’s on a six fight win streak with all six wins coming via first round finish. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently securing an impressive first round win over a tough out in Chris Duncan. Torres’ kill-or-be-killed style is the reason he carries so much momentum into this match-up, but there is no denying it makes him a volatile fighter to back with any confidence. Ignacio Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the center-line and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Torres will be dangerous early here, but I expect Bahamondes to weather an early storm until he can take this fight over as Torres starts to fade. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Three KO
Irene Aldana -110 vs Norma Dumont -110
- Anthony: The featured prelim comes at women’s bantamweight with Norma Dumont facing Irene Aldana. Both athletes find themselves in good form lately and ranked among the division top ten. Aldana competed in a Fight of the Night against Karol Rosa her last time out. I felt inspired by that performance out of Aldana, showcasing very tight boxing combinations and landing 122 strikes to the head. This is going to quite clearly be a matchup between striker and grappler. Aldana will find a lot of success here boxing against Dumont who is far less skilled offensively. Dumont will rely on scoring takedowns to win in this matchup. Aldana has 76 percent takedown defense but I could easily see Dumont scoring just two or three shots here that end up swaying the fight. The crowd can perhaps play a factor in this one enticing most of this action to play out on the feet. Dumont has won four fights in a row and scored at least one takedown in each of those. Aldana is going to be the pick for me but this is another bout appropriately lined at even money. Irene Aldana by Decision
- Nick: Norma Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling ability. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space, and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks, but her striking is fairly predictable. She has some power on the feet, but she telegraphs most of her strikes. Dumont is coming off of a career best win, over a tough out in Germaine de Randamie. Irene Aldana has solid boxing ability, she throws meaningful shots, and her combinations are amongst the most effective in the division. She lands more than five significant strikes per minute, and she has won five of her last seven fights under the UFC banner. Her most recent loss came in a title fight to Amanda Nunes, but Nunes is one of the greatest of all time when the conversation is women’s mixed martial arts. While she was mostly dominated in that fight, her durability and cardio did allow her to survive until the scorecards. She has since secured a solid bounceback win over a tough out in Karol Rosa, but she has been out of action since that fight took place back in December of 2023. This is a tough match-up to call, but I slightly prefer Aldana here. She sports a solid 76 percent takedown defense, which should be enough to mostly keep this fight standing. Dumont will be live for the upset if she can get her grappling going, but on the feet she’s going to be outclassed by a wide margin. Irena Aldana by Decision
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Ronaldo Rodriguez -165 vs Ode Osbourne +135
- Anthony: The main card opens with a fun flyweight matchup of Ode Osbourne and Ronaldo Rodriguez. Lazy Boy looked great in his UFC debut, beating Denys Bondar by submission. I like the move down to flyweight for Rodriguez who now seems to be coming into his own. I like his aggressive style and the unorthodox entries we see as he enters range. Rodriguez has short reach as is but this fight with Osbourne will see that further exaggerated. I rate his boxing skills higher than Obsourne’s but this will be a dicey matchup for him on the feet. Rodriguez could benefit from taking Osbourne to the mat in this meeting. We’ve seen Obsourne finished in all but one of his professional losses. He tends to lose the race to winning positions and I could see that costing him here. Osbourne can find success here using long teeps and jabs to keep distance early. He is a southpaw striker with elusive power so it would not surprise me to see him win here as the underdog. However, Rodriguez seems like a good prospect on the rise and this should be an easy draw for him as he begins to climb the ladder. Ronaldo Rodriguez by Round One Submission
- Nick: Ronaldo Rodriguez is 16-2 professionally and only 25-years old. Seven of his wins have come via KO and five, including his recent UFC debut win over Denys Bondar, have come via submission. Rodriguez is decent everywhere, but most of his recent success has come on the mat. Rodriguez carries a lot of momentum into this match-up as he’s on a six-fight win streak, and his last loss came on Contender Series, where many felt he was robbed via decision against Jerome Rivera. Ode Osbourne has crisp striking and he does an excellent job switching stances. He has a powerful back-step power kick; he does a good job diversifying his strikes, and more often than not he’s able to lean on his athleticism to drown his opponents. He works well at range, but he sometimes leaves himself open to counters in exchanges. His wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, but he does carry an arsenal of dangerous submissions if his fights hit the mat. He’s coming off back-to-back submission losses, and there’s a chance he’ll be cut from the promotion if he can’t secure a win in this fight. Osbourne’s durability and questionable grappling defense makes this a low confidence play, but I see value in him as the underdog. Rodriguez really hasn’t been tested against anyone on Osbourne’s level. I expect Osbourne to win most striking exchanges and lean on his offensive wrestling if he needs to. Ode Osbourne by Decision
Daniel Zellhuber -220 vs Esteban Ribovics +180
- Anthony: Next is a great matchup at lightweight between Esteban Ribovics and Daniel Zellhuber. Many are high on Zellhuber out of Mexico, a 25-year-old with an impressive record of 15-1. Both men have only suffered one professional loss before. Zellhuber even fared well in that defeat against Ogden and since then he had only improved. The skilled striker has great tools for this weight class and fights effectively out of both stances. He is a very calm and poised fighter that I only critique for fighting with little aggression. Stll, the ceiling for Zellhuber is undoubtedly high and Ribovics is an opponent he should beat. Ribovics brings to this fight some very heavy hands and kicks. He is a serious power threat with seven pro wins by way of knockout. I expect Zellhuber to slow the pace here and pick apart Ribovics from distance. He benefits from an 8-inch reach advantage here, likely to yield huge benefits when it comes to the strikes landing upstairs. Zellhuber does not often chase the finish but I could see one materializing for him late. Zellhuber is the much more technically skilled striker and I feel confident predicting that he wins this matchup. Ribovics will start to feel outclassed if this bout gets into round two. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
- Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but his stock took a major hit in his UFC debut where he lost a convincing decision to Trey Ogden. He has bounced back nicely since, recording solid wins over vets in Lando Vannata and Christos Giagos, and most recently Francisco Prado. He continues to make major improvements from fight to fight, but as talented as he is he is still somewhat rough around the edges. Esteban Ribovics is 13-1 professionally, with all but one of those wins coming via finish. He’s fairly well-rounded with surprising power for his frame. He has dangerous BJJ and a decent wrestling base, but it seems he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s a rising prospect at 28 years old, coming off a highlight reel KO win via head kick over a popular prospect in Terrance McKinney. Ribovics will have the power advantage here, but Zellhuber is the much cleaner striker both offensively and defensively. As long as Zellhuber can stay safe early, I expect he’ll pull away as he uses his length and footwork to pick Ribovics apart. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
Diego Lopes -190 vs Brian Ortega +155
- Anthony: The featured bout is a thrilling matchup between Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega. This is the third booking of this fight after Ortega withdrew from both previous occasions in May and June. Ortega only cut to 155 pounds at UFC 303 and still felt the need to withdraw on fight night. I worry about backing him here for fear of what version shows up. Ortega won in a Fight Night main event this February, but not before getting touched up by Yair Rodriguez. I always hate fading Ortega given his dogged spirit and propensity to steal fights late. It seems his days at 145 pounds may be numbered, but the man is still inspired to win and put on exciting shows. Lopes has been dynamite since joining the UFC and he enters here on a four fight winning streak. Not only has Lopes been getting his hand raised but three of his four most recent victories came in under 100 seconds. He is confident when striking and very dangerous given the power we have seen. Lopes is also a very skilled jiu jitsu practitioner. It will be interesting to see who gets the better of grappling exchanges if these two do hit the mat tonight. Ortega is known for his lethal offensive BJJ and Lopes may be the only guy I trust to avoid submitting to him. I think it will be Lopes’ hands that end up deciding this one. He is a very aggressive fighter and I expect him to rock Ortega before the first round ends. I favor Ortega in the latter half of this bout or if it does go to the judge’s cards. Diego Lopes by Round One KO
- Nick: Lopes is 25-6 professionally with ten wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ and excellent overall scrambling ability. He’s coming off an impressive win via decision over Dan Ige back on June 29th, a fight in which Ige filled in on just a few hours notice for Lopes’ opponent in this match-up, Brian Ortega. Lopes is a prospect on the rise in the featherweight division, and it seems his striking continues to improve every time we see him in the cage. As a black belt under Rener Gracie, Ortega has extremely advanced jiu jitsu and offensive grappling ability. We’ve seen him score a variety of submissions against the best of this 145 pound division and while he has made serious improvements in his striking over the years, there’s no denying that his BJJ remains his most effective weapon. He is coming off an impressive win via submission over Yair Rodriguez, but it’s notable he couldn’t make 145 lbs and forced this fight up to lightweight after struggling with his weight cut. Ortega has the far more impressive resume, but Lopes’ momentum and power on the feet will likely be enough for him to find an early finish. If he can’t, Ortega will certainly be live to score this upset. Diego Lopes by Round One KO
Alexa Grasso -140 vs Valentina Shevchenko +115
- Anthony: The co-main event decides the strawweight title as Valentina Shevchenko faces the Mexican champion Alexa Grasso. This is a welcome trilogy bout after the two fought to a draw in their last meeting. I scored the previous fight for Shevchenko but an erroneous 10-8 round to Grasso allowed the champion to retain. This fight is pivotal for Shevchenko at the age of 36. She will need to fight a similar game plan to her last, mixing in the grappling and outclassing Grasso in all realms of mixed martial arts. Shevchenko feels most comfortable when kickboxing her opponents but Grasso has proven to handle Shevchenko there. The jab of Grasso has been eating up Shevchenko in these fights. She also holds the only knockdown scored so far in this trilogy. Grasso is the more technically skilled boxer and it shows when these two are engaging in the pocket. For every minute we have seen Grasso controlling range and landing strikes we have also seen Shevchenko dominating in top position. She has scored at least three takedowns in seven consecutive appearances. None of that likely matters in a fight that goes to decision and see’s Las Vegas judging once again. I have to take advantage of Shevchenko here as the betting underdog although I have a feeling the champion will retain her belt. Shevchenko has not been an underdog since 2016 when she beat Holly Holm. And New. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
- Nick: Prior to her capturing the UFC Flyweight Title, Grasso was coming off impressive wins over Viviane Araujo, Joanne Wood, Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber. She’s been showing dramatic improvements everytime we see her fight, culminating in her most recent win, to become champion, over Valentina Shevchenko. She has since fought to a Draw against Shevchenko in a rematch, a fight in which many felt she lost. Given the competitive nature of this match-up, it really isn’t surprising to see it taking place for a third time in a row. Gatto works well behind her jab, her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Her BJJ offensively has become a solid weapon for her as well, which is evident by her recent submission victory. The challenger, Valentina Shevchenko, is one of the best female strikers to ever step in a cage. She’s a highly technical kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and enough speed to land a variety of combinations against anyone in this division. This fight represents her with an opportunity to avenge her first loss to 2017, against an opponent in Grasso who she was finding success against before she threw a spinning kick, missed, and gave up her back in the fourth round. In the rematch, Shevchenko did a better job mixing in her grappling to stay near Grasso on the scorecards. Shevchenko is the better grappler in this match-up, but that margin seems to be closing. Grasso is entering her prime, and Shevchenko is slowly leaving her own. This fight could certainly go either way, but I expect Shevchenko’s age could start to show here. She’s a year removed from her last fight, and Grasso appears to be in the best shape of her life. And Still. Alexa Grasso by Decision
Sean O’Malley -140 vs Merab Dvalishvili +115
- Anthony: Headlining The Sphere is the world bantamweight championship between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. The champion is coming off a very impressive win over Chito Vera in his first title defense. O’Malley is back in the octagon now just months later and certainly entering his best form. Dvalishvili is a much more worthy title challenger as he enters on a streak of ten straight. It is worth noting that only one of those ten fights saw Dvalishvili win by stoppage. He is a superb pressure fighter with great cardio and wrestling, but Dvalishvili has shown zero threat to finish fights. His striking defense is poor but grit and unnatural cardio has been enough for Dvalishvili to weather the storm and outwork every opponent. O’Malley is going to pick apart Dvalishvili every minute this fight is standing. It is key that O’Malley defends early takedowns here but I have no doubt that is all he has been drilling this camp. Suga lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute with a 61 percent rate of accuracy on his attempts. He is way faster and more technically sound than Dvalishvili and I expect him to score at least one knockdown. O’Malley is skilled with his boxing, sure but in a mixed martial arts bout he can do much more to hurt his opponents. Dvalishvili is going to be biting on feints here and shooting with less confidence as he starts to feel thatpower. O’Malley may need the knockout to win this style of fight but I am starting to feel confident that he gets it. There is no striker quite as good as Sean O’Malley and we have seen Dvalishvili knocked down on numerous occasions before. And Still. Sean O’Malley by Round Three KO
- Nick: Sean O’Malley is extremely fast and agile on the feet with phenomenal overall striking ability. He is defensively sound, and he does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has an excellent +4.11 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. O’Malley most recently defended his title in a dominant decision win over Marlon Vera back in March. Prior to that, he secured the bantamweight title with a KO of Aljamain Sterling in August of 2023. O’Malley sports a decent 62% takedown defense coming into this match-up, which is going to be tested extensively against a pressure style wrestler in Merab Dvalishvili. Merab might be the best pure wrestler on the roster at Bantamweight. He has shown an ability to score takedowns from a wide range of positions, as he’s set multiple UFC records for most takedowns in a fight. Dvalishvili averages more than 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes. He almost always leans on his grappling to control position so most of his wins come via decision. He has strung together ten consecutive victories under the UFC banner, most recently dominating a former champion in Henry Cejudo via decision. This is a tough fight to call as it is such a binary match-up. If Dvalishvili can secure takedowns and utilize a pace to wear on O’Malley, he should be able to pull off a decision win. However, if O’Malley can keep this fight standing, he should be able to find Dvalishvili’s chin as his striking is simply levels above his opponent’s here. A low confidence pick, but I’m siding with the champ. And Still. Sean O’Malley by Round Two KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com