Our deep dive into the fantasy rankings wraps up with a look at tight ends.
For the first time in what seems like… well, ever, the tight end position actually has a solid amount of depth entering the 2024 fantasy season. So far, it’s becoming increasingly rare to see a tight end go in the first 2 rounds of mock drafts. In years past if you wanted to draft someone like Travis Kelce you were forced to take him by the middle of the first round.
One thing that we see in fantasy every year is a player drafted in the tenth round or later finishing as a top five tight end. Sam LaPorta is the most recent example, but it goes to show that the divide between the top tight ends in the league isn’t as vast as we sometimes make it out to be.
Another interesting trend over the last four seasons: there have been four to five tight ends per year selected between rounds four through seven. This is now becoming a tight end dead zone. Only six out of the twenty seven tight ends selected in this range finished at or above their ADP. The names are familiar, and each of those players tend to have a solid role on their roster, but selecting a tight end at this point of the draft is, at best, selecting someone at their absolute ceiling. Waiting and taking a flier later on in your draft with someone with higher upside does come with its risks, but can pay off for you in a big way.
Deciding what route to take for tight ends is always tricky, but, for the teams I’m drafting, I’m either targeting the top tier early, or waiting to take a late draft flier (or two) on someone who might be in an ideal situation that’s currently under the radar.
Tier 1:
Kelce remains a top tight end talent, but gets replaced in the fantasy rankings this year after LaPorta’s breakout rookie campaign. These top four players are the ones I want to target in the draft. Since they’re so tightly bunched as a group, my goal is to wait and take the fourth tight end in this grouping, maximizing my potential at other positions.
- 1. Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions – TE1 in February
LaPorta had one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end ever. Touchdowns are the most unpredictable thing in fantasy football, so I find it hard to assume that we can mark Laporta in for another ten touchdowns in 2024. However I would expect a nice uptick in targets this year in the Lion’s offence, and that’s after breaking the rookie record with 86 receptions in 2023.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will certainly be the go-to target for Jared Goff, but their depth chart drops off dramatically after that. Even if Jameson Williams lives up to his potential, his presence on the field as a deep threat could actually help LaPorta by opening up the underneath routes even more. I find it hard to select LaPorta at his current ADP (25th overall player) as I feel like the next three tight ends will be able to provide 90-95% of the production that LaPorta provides and are all being drafted after him. He’s still my bet to finish as the TE1, but I worry about the value if you’re being forced to draft him at the beginning of round three...
- 2. Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – TE2 in February
Kelce only missed two games for the Chiefs last season, but it was clear that he was banged up throughout the year and was saving himself for the playoffs. Entering his age 34 season, load management is a real concern, especially considering that Kelce and Mahomes are gunning to be three-peat Super Bowl champions as opposed to remaining focussed on winning you a fantasy season.
Kansas City also has some capable backups to help spell Kelce. Noah Gray has been learning the role for the past three seasons under Andy Reid, and rookie Jared Wiley is an extremely athletic option who’s shown in college an innate ability to get open in short yard situations. Despite all that, Kelce is still my TE2. He actually tied with LaPorta in 2023 in fantasy points per game despite catching five less touchdowns and was third in the league amongst all tight ends for catches of over twenty yards with twelve. If I believe that Williams can open up for opportunities in Detroit for LaPorta, then I have to believe that the additions of Marquise Brown (injury not withstanding) and Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs wide receiver room also opens things up for Kelce. Kelce won’t be around forever, so take advantage of him while you can.
- 3. Trey McBride – Arizona Cardinals – TE4 in February
McBride is my most drafted tight end across my leagues. He’s currently going as the 50th overall player off the board – which is a full two rounds after Kelce is getting drafted in terms of ADP. McBride is one of the most skilled tight ends in the league and is just hitting his prime as he nears his 25th birthday.
He broke out over the second half of last season once Kyler Murray was back and fully healthy, leading the tight end position with an incredibly high 27% target rate from week eight on. There’s some concern that he’ll have more target competition this season with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr at wide receiver, but I think offensive coordinator Drew Petzig is really going to expand this passing game and give both those players enough targets to have true breakout seasons.
- 4. Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – TE3 in February
The top 5 tight end in points per game over the past five seasons is under-appreciated amongst the fantasy community due to his inability to stay on the field. He only suited up for ten games last year, but made it back for the playoffs despite suffering an ankle injury that required surgery.
Injury prone players at the tight end position don’t tend to shake that label as they age, and Andrews is about to turn 29 years old. However, he’s the rare tight end that can win you a fantasy week so he remains as a top four pick in my rankings. Andrews is still the focal point of the Ravens passing offence as he only has Zay Flowers as a real threat for targets. Although, there remains a possibility that Baltimore finally finds a way to get Isaiah Likely on the field on a more consistent basis.
I’ve heard concerns from fantasy football players that Derrick Henry will take away from Andrews in the red zone, but the Ravens have always used their running backs to punch the ball in so I don’t anticipate there being a major change in offensive philosophy there. Drafting Andrews has its risks, but his upside is worth those few weeks you need to switch to becoming a tight end streamer.
Tier 2:
The second tier is the beginning of the tight end dead zone we talked about in the opening. These four players are almost guaranteed to be rostered across every league. While they provide some consistent fantasy value, they’re being selected at the point of the draft with much more exciting options at other positions.
- 5. Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills – TE5 in February
Kincaid was the top drafted rookie in the 2023 fantasy drafts at tight end, but was outplayed by LaPorta by a large margin. His 673 yards was the fifth most for a rookie in the past 25 years, so it’s not like Kincaid was a complete dud. However, he only recorded two touchdowns on the season. Even more concerning was his low yards after catch average and his dismal 8.8% explosive play rate per target, which was amongst the worst at the position.
After the offseason roster shake ups in Buffalo, Kincaid actually has a fairly clear path to becoming the Bills number one receiver, and I like to have players that are tied to Josh Allen’s offence. However I find Kincaid going too early in drafts for my liking, and the looming presence of Dawson Knox and his red zone ability is a real cause for concern which lowers the ceiling for Kincaid
- 6. George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – TE6 in February
Kittle is a reliable option that you can slot onto your roster and not put too much thought into it. He has a fairly safe floor (although he did have the occasional dud game in 2023) and can break out for the periodic monster performance. I love to watch Kittle play, as despite being behind other elite level receiving options on a loaded 49ers offence he still finished as the TE5 in 2023, topping 1,000 yards receiving and finished as the leader amongst all tight ends with eighteen catches over twenty yards.
That being said, he’s 31 years old, and with his extremely aggressive playstyle, we have to be concerned if he’s on the verge of hitting the age cliff. He’s currently going in the middle of the fifth round, so he’s an investment if you want to cheer for him all season.
- 7. Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – TE15 in February
Pitts might be the exception to the tight end dead zone. While he’s being drafted in the middle rounds, he has the highest potential ceiling of this group. His talent is undeniable, but as he enters his fourth season, he’s yet to prove that his talent translates to the NFL.
He did rack up over 1,000 yards receiving in his rookie season, but injuries hampered his sophomore campaign, and the 2023 Falcons offence was just painful to watch. Atlanta is entering 2024 with a whole new offensive scheme led by Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson, and with a major upgrade at quarterback with Kirk Cousins replacing Desmond Ridder, Pitts might finally tap into all of that potential.
Despite entering his fourth season in the NFL, Pitts is still only 23 years old, which is younger than the Falcons first round pick Michael Penix Jr. Before I commit to drafting Pitts, I‘ll be keeping a keen eye on his training camp to make sure that the knee issues that hampered him the past few seasons are finally behind him. But his upside is tantalizing – especially after Kirk Cousins helped T.J. Hockenson play as the TE1 in the first half of the 2023 season before it all fell apart in Minnesota.
- 8. Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars – TE7 in February
Engram is ranked even higher in PPR leagues after coming just short of breaking the tight end record for the most receptions in 2023 with 114, leading all pass catchers in receptions per game with 6.7. He’s clearly Trevor Lawrence’s security blanket and absorbs a lot of volume, but that only resulted in 963 yards and four touchdowns this past year.
Engram was a benefactor from the Christian Kirk injury in 2023, as well as the overall misuse of the skill position players in the Jaguars offence last season. It’ll be interesting to see how this offence looks with Kirk back as their leading wide receiver following the departure of Calvin Ridley, and the additions of two deep threats in Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
Engram is the epitome of what we brought up in the opening of this article – he’s a fine, safe pick at tight end but it’s hard to see him replicating that amount of volume for a second straight season.
Tier 3:
Tier three is where we begin bargain hunting. There are some high upside tight ends in this group that could be in line for big seasons, and they can be had near the end of your drafts.
- 9. Jake Ferguson – Dallas Cowboys – TE8 in February
Ferguson has earned Dak Prescott’s trust in the red zone as he finished tops in the league in red zone targets amongst all tight ends in 2023. There’s been no change to the Cowboys offence that would make us think that Ferguson won’t retain that role in 2024.
CeeDee Lamb is in the midst of a hold-in, and the only other viable NFL receiver on the roster is 30 year old Brandin Cooks. I’m a little scared of Ferguson, as despite being a big part of the team’s red zone playbook, he only finished the 2023 season with five total touchdowns. He’s fine as a late round tight end selection, but he’s fairly touchdown dependent and hasn’t shown the ability to turn all of those opportunities into points.
- 10. Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers – TE18 in February
When Arthur Smith was their head coach, the Falcons threw to their tight ends at the highest rate in the league last season. Now that Smith is the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, there’s a belief that Freiermuth will become a focal part of this team’s passing offence.
However, Smith’s offensive scheme is built around throwing the ball in the middle of the field, something that presumed starter Russell Wilson rarely does. Freiermuth can easily be the number two receiving option on this team behind George Pickens as the Steelers are lacking depth in that department, but I doubt this passing offence is something worth investing in overall unless Wilson shaves off five or years off his age, or Justin Fields makes an unexpected leap as a passer.
- 11. Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles – TE9 in February
Goedert has a very safe floor, and Jalen Hurts only throws to three players – A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Goedert. Unfortunately Goedert just doesn’t score touchdowns. He’s only collected 8 red zone targets over the last 3 seasons combined and his career high in touchdowns in a season (which is only five) came back in 2019. Goedert is also prone to missing a couple games per year and has never gone over 1,000 receiving yards in a season. He’s a much better real life player than he is a fantasy asset.
- 12. Brock Bowers – Las Vegas Raiders – Rookie
Bowers enters the league with an impressive college football resume, but lands in a pretty terrible situation in Las Vegas. The Raiders already have a young talent at tight end in Michael Mayer, so the pick itself was a little odd to begin with. They also have to decide who will be their starting quarterback as Aiden O’Connell and Gardner Minshew are set to battle it out in training camp. The transition to the NFL is usually difficult for tight ends. And with Davante Adams acting as a major target hog Bowers is unlikely to have a breakthrough rookie season in this environment.
- 13. Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers – TE19 in February
I’m very big on Musgrave this season. He’s the tight end I am targeting heavily if I’m unable to grab one of the top four. The Packers offence went through growing pains early in the 2023 season, and there are plenty of clips of head coach Matt LaFleur expressing his frustrations to Musgrave when things just weren’t clicking. However, he did eventually start to figure out the NFL and the innovative Packers offence up until a Week 10 injury essentially ended his regular season.
Tucker Kraft stepped in and took over that starting role, but Kraft tore his pectoral muscle during OTA’s, giving Musgrave a clear path to being the lead tight end for the Packers to start the season. Musgrave might end up being a player who gets off to a hot start and fades down the stretch as Kraft returns which is keeping him just outside of the TE1 range in my rankings, but there’s a strong chance he could also seize this opportunity and cement himself as a big part of this exciting Packers offence.
- 14. David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – TE11 in February
Njoku broke out at the end of last season – posting nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns in his final four games, so there’s a lot of hype for the 28 year old tight end entering 2024. It seems like people have forgotten that stretch came with Joe Flacco at quarterback. With the team so financially invested in Deshaun Watson, he has the longest leash in the NFL to be the starter for the foreseeable future.
Watson and Njoku have yet to show any chemistry in Kevin Stefanski’s offence, as Njoku’s targets, catches, yards and touchdowns all significantly drop in games where Watson plays. I have a hard time investing in a tight end who just can not play with his current starting quarterback.
Tier 4:
Now that we’ve covered the TE1 tiers in fantasy, we’ll touch on the rest of the names that at least add some intrigue at the tight end position.
- 15. Dalton Schultz – Houston Texans – TE12 in February
The Texans re-signed Schultz this offseason, which is probably the best case scenario for his career. With a crowded passing game, it’s hard to imagine Schultz replicating his TE11 finish from 2023, but he’s a solid streaming option during the weeks or in case of injury. He’s a hit or miss option that will likely miss more often than hit.
- 16. T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings – TE10 in February
Hockenson is left out of the top tiers of tight ends as we still have no clarity as to when he’ll return from his ACL/MCL tear that he suffered last December. Even if he’s well ahead of schedule, the earliest expected return would be post Halloween, and even then he’ll need a couple of weeks to get back to football shape.
He might be worth a long term stash on your IR depending on your league settings so I don’t hate taking him in the last round of certain drafts. But when you factor in the questions surrounding the new Minnesota offence, it’s a bet that’s unlikely to pay off.
- 17. Isaiah Likely – Baltimore Ravens – TE14 in February
Likely has the distinction of being the one true tight end handcuff as he’s shown he can take over when Andrews misses time. Unfortunately Harbaugh has yet to show a version of the Ravens offence where Likely and Andrews can share the field. Likely was the TE4 in the five games Andrews missed last season, so we know he can handle a bigger role when called upon, but drafting him is banking on an Andrews injury.
- 18. Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears – TE16 in February
Kmet is underrated as a tight end threat, but has a rookie quarterback and three wide receivers that he needs to fend off for targets in Chicago.
- 19. Jonnu Smith – Miami Dolphins – NR in February
Smith brings his boom-or-bust potential to one of the most explosive offences in the league. Miami has yet to put much value in the tight end position, but Smith is coming off of career highs in targets, catches and yards while playing in a dismal Atlanta offence so we’ll see if head coach Mike McDaniel can get him involved this season.
- 20. Hunter Henry – New England Patriots – NR in February
Henry will be the red zone target for the Patriots, particularly early on in the season, and could emerge as their number one overall target. Unfortunately this offence will struggle to move the ball and put up points this season limiting Henry’s ceiling.
- 21. Chigoziem Okonkwo – Tennessee Titans – NR in February
2023 was supposed to be a breakout year for the ultra athletic Okonkwo, but the Titans offence never got off the ground. This season, Okonkwo will be battling Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears for catches while working in an offensive system that doesn’t historically prioritize the tight end position.
- 22. Tyler Conklin – New York Jets – NR in February
I had Conklin down as one of my favourite deep sleeper tight ends last season but he was a victim of the Aaron Rodgers injury. He’s collected exactly eighty seven targets in each of the last three seasons and actually set a career high with 621 receiving yards last year. With a serious lack of talent behind Garrett Wilson, Conklin could be a reliable number two option for Rodgers in 2024.
- 23. Tucker Kraft – Green Bay Packers – TE13 in February
Kraft would be my choice as a breakout candidate this year, but he unfortunately is working his way back from a torn pec. He’s likely to miss the majority of training camp, and his status at the start of the season is very much in doubt. He can work his way back into the lineup later on in the year, so he’s someone worth monitoring on waivers.
- 24. Noah Fant – Seattle Seahawks – NR in February
It feels like Noah Fant has been in the league forever, but is still only 26 years old and might be finally getting a chance as the undisputed number one tight end on his team for the first time in his career. Fant is a big, fast end. And now that it looks like he won’t be ceding as many snaps to blocking tight ends Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly, he could have a larger role in the Seahaws new offence.
- 25. Ben Sinnot – Washington Commanders – Rookie
Sinnot will be starting the season behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart, and a solid veteran like Ertz is hard to pass. Sinnot is super athletic, so there’s a chance the Commanders want to give him a strong run as the starter in the latter part of the season once they are well out of the playoff picture.
- 26. Cade Otton – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – NR in February
Otton’s high snap count keeps him in the conversation as a bye week fill in at tight end. He played an astonishing 97% of the team’s offensive snaps last season, but still was unable to surpass 50 catches or 500 receiving yards.
- 27. Juwan Johnson – New Orleans Saints – NR in February
- 28. Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints – NR in February
Johnson has the incredible stretches of putting up points, including scoring three touchdowns in the Saints final four games last season, and a five score month back in 2022. However he cannot stay on the field enough to be fantasy relevant, leaving the door open for “offensive weapon” Taysom Hill. As long as Dennis Allen is coaching in New Orleans, Hill will still be a frustrating part of this offence.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
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