UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs Jandiroba – 7.20.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs Jandiroba. We return to The Apex in Las Vegas for tonight’s event. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 173-108-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 172-109-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-19-2024 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 5:30pm EST
Mohammed Usman -115 vs Thomas Petersen -105
- Anthony: The card today begins with heavyweights Mohammed Usman and Thomas Petersen. This is a very low-level matchup between athletes that do not deserve a spot on the promotional roster. Petersen not only lost in his UFC debut but produced a sloppy fight with Jamal Pogues that garnered little to no excitement. The southpaw is a slower and more plodding heavyweight, oftentimes moving forward and applying pressure to opponents with his pace. Petersen can often find success by implementing his grappling and wearing on opponents over the course of fifteen minutes. However, he has very limited weapons to draw on apart from that. Usman is the more dynamic athlete and certainly seems the more prepared as he enters this bout. While I think Usman should hold the striking edge in this fight I do not trust his power to get the job done. This is a pick em fight for good reason and I could see either man getting his hand raised. My pick will reluctantly be Usman who has at least proven capable of winning in the UFC. Mohammed Usman by Decision
- Nick: This is a bad matchup at heavyweight although both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Thomas Petersen is 8-2 professionally, and at 29-years old he’s one of the younger heavyweights on the roster. Peterson is relatively well-rounded for the division, but he’s coming off an ugly loss to another low level opponent in Jamal Pogues. He carries some power on the feet, but he’s extremely hittable in exchanges. He’s capable of wrestling offensively, but many of his entries for takedowns are telegraphed and easy for his opponents to see coming. Mohammed Usman is the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He’s nowhere near as talented as his brother, but he is athletically gifted with true KO power on the feet.He’s a competent wrestler, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade as three of his six most recent wins have come via KO. The key to this match-up will be Petersen’s ability to take Usman to the mat. Usman will be the better striker, but Peterson’s advantages if he could ground his opponent here could be enough to pull off the upset. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play, but I expect Usman will be athletic enough to mostly keep this fight standing. Mohammed Usman by Decision
Lucie Pudilova -115 vs Luana Carolina -105
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Luana Carolina and Lucie Pudilova. A large portion of bets placed this week have been on Carolina, likely due to her recent win streak and more prolonged octagon success. I have never been very high on Carolina but she is fighting a more effective style lately and landing strikes at a high clip. I am interested to see how she matches up with Pudilova who is a touch faster and more sound defensively. Pudilova is a bigger submission threat than Carolina as fights hit the mat, but I am not a fan of her offensive wrestling and takedowns. She could outmuscle Carolina in this spot but I am largely expecting this to be a fight contested on the feet. I think Carolina will be too reckless, closing the distance on Pudilova in hopes of landing big strikes in the clinch. Pudilova is a bit steadier and more likely to land the effective counters, catching Carolina on her way in. This is not a confident pick but I do side with the Czech fighter. Lucie Pudilova by Decision
- Nick: Pudilova is an aggressive striker who is more than content to stand and trade. She’s decent offensively, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She is coming off back-to-back losses to Joselyne Edwards and Ailin Perez, and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the roster if she can’t secure a win in this spot. Luana Carolina does her best work striking at range. She’s going to have a reach advantage here, but she doesn’t really carry the type of power it may take to keep Pudilova from closing distance. The key to this match-up will likely be Carolina’s ability to keep this fight standing and out of the clinch. She has decent takedown defense, but she struggles to work back to her feet once she’s grounded. This is a low level match-up and thus a tough fight to call, but I slightly prefer Carolina as she seems to still be improving. Pudilova seems a bit past her prime. Luana Carolina by Decision
Loik Radzhabov -115 vs Trey Ogden -105
- Anthony: This is a fun lightweight matchup between Trey Ogden and Loik Radzhabov. Ogden enters this fight coming off a win in his last appearance against Kurt Holobaugh. He is a sneaky good grappler, securing three takedowns in each of his previous two fights. Ogden brings good size to the lightweight division. He tends to do well wrapping up opponents by getting in on the legs or a body lock. Radzhabov has already put his grappling on display here in the octagon although it’s important he doesn’t get stuck underneath Ogden here. Radzhabov is effective when implementing his own offensive wrestling but when it comes to the defensive that has yet to be seen. Radzhabov however will be the much better striker in this matchup. Ogden struggles to land strikes with very much meaning and I think Radzhabov will build on his offensive totals the longer that this fight goes. Radzhabov has shown he has a good motor and I trust him to fight for a hard three rounds here. While Ogden could certainly make this scrap look ugly I agree with Radzhabov as the slight betting favorite. Loik Radzhabov by Decision
- Nick: Loik Radzhabov is primarily a grappler. He is a competent technical striker who can be dangerous on the feet, but in most of his wins we see him controlling his opponents both on the mat and up against the cage. He is 2-1 in the UFC, coming off an impressive KO win over a tough out in Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. Having recently shifted camps to KillCliffFC, it seems he is still making improvements at 33-years old. At 34-years old it seems unlikely Trey Ogden will have an extensive UFC career, but he’s well rounded and a good test for the prospects in a loaded 155 lb division. Ogden is decent on the feet, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands in exchanges. He’s fairly durable as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but most of his success has come on the mat as he fights mostly to maintain position. Ogden is likely going to have trouble keeping Radzhabov grounded here. If he can he will be live to pull off the upset, but it seems more likely he ends up a step behind on his feet. Loik Radzhabov by Decision
Miranda Maverick -225 vs Dione Barbosa +185
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Miranda Maverick and Dione Barbosa. Maverick is a rather steady octagon presence, already boasting a win over Andrea Lee this year. Her striking has vastly improved but more often than not, Maverick is looking for takedowns and top control in route to earning her victories. I expect her to lead the dance here striking out of the southpaw stance against Barbosa. Barbosa is a late convert to mixed martial arts after being a standout judoka. She is a deadly submission threat but I could see her jiu jitsu nullified here by the better offensive wrestler. Maverick is strong for the weight class and while Barbosa may have a few reversals or submission attempts, she will spend most of this bout with Maverick’s weight on top of her. She is not the worst play here at plus money but I would prefer to bet Barbosa’s submission props if I were to play here. Maverick seems like the safer bet to win this fight whether it be by finish or judge’s decision. Miranda Maverick by Decision
- Nick: Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. Dione Barbosa is 32 years old and 7-1 professionally, coming off a decision win in her UFC debut over Ernesta Kareckaite. She is primarily a grappler, with three of her seven professional wins coming via submission. She looks to grapple in most of her fights. She has dangerous offensive BJJ, but on the feet she seems to take a lot of damage in exchanges.The price isn’t great, but Maverick is the rightful favorite here. As long as she has a sound submission defense, she should cruise to a win. Miranda Maverick by Round Three KO
Cody Gibson -200 vs Brian Kelleher +160
- Anthony: The featured prelim is this bantamweight contest between Brian Kelleher and Cody Gibson. Kelleher has now lost three straight in the UFC, getting finished in each of his previous appearances. It feels safe to say that he is an aged veteran at this point, lacking much in terms of the threat he presents to opponents. Kelleher has always been a volatile fighter but his paths to victory in this matchup feel extremely limited. As is oftentimes the case, Kelleher will rely on stepping in and landing a big overhand to take this fight. He is good at switching stances to load up on his power shots but over the course of a full fifteen minutes I do not see Kelleher finding much success at all. Gibson is not an intimidating striker but his length will give Kelleher issues as he tries to move in. I think Gibson has solid hands but more than anything I trust his volume and durability to win out against this opponent. He is the better offensive grappler and should hold the edge over Kelleher if he does elect to wrestler. It is hard to get to the betting window and play a 37 year old Brian Kelleher no who it is he is facing. Cody Gibson by Round Two KO
- Nick: Cody Gibson is 19-10 professionally, coming off an ugly decision loss to Miles Johns. He’s well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s getting up there in age, but he’s extremely durable with a very high fight IQ. Gibson is going to have a considerable reach advantage here. Brian Kelleher’s greatest strengths are his KO Power and his outstanding guillotine choke. While he can put opponents away with his hands, he can be over-aggressive at times and as a result he leaves himself open to counters. He’s fun to watch because he’s willing to take damage, but against advanced strikers he often finds himself on the wrong end of exchanges. Gibson will land more volume on the feet, but he’ll need to utilize his length to stay safe from Kelleher’s underrated power. Gibson should be able to stay a step ahead on the feet here, and if he can’t I’m encouraged by the fact he’ll have a considerable grappling advantage as well. Cody Gibson by Decision
Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Jeong Yeong Lee -190 vs Hyder Amil +160
- Anthony: The main card opens with featherweights Hyder Amil and Jeong Yeong Lee. This is a compelling clash between exciting young fighters in the division. Amil remains undefeated after an impressive UFC debut earlier ths year. He is a solid athlete with a great build for this weight division. We have seen Amil effectively switch stances before and while I would not rate his striking as highly as I do Lee, Amil is consistent when it comes to attacking with offense of his own. He will probably put forth the better workrate early here, even if Lee is landing the shots with more meaning or effect. Not only do I rate Lee as the more dangerous kickboxer but his experience also gives him the edge over Amil if this fight is to go another direction. Lee has the ability to at least threaten with takedowns if he does fall behind Amil on the numbers. It would not surprise me to see Amil win this decision but I believe Lee’s striking is the real deal. He should be able to find the shot that knocks down Amil even if he does not earn the knockout. Jeong Yeong Lee by Round Two KO
- Nick: Hyder Amil is 9-0 professionally, but getting a late start to his career as a 34-year old featherweight. Coming off a solid win via KO In the UFC debut, he had quality experience coming into the promotion having primarily fought for Bellator and LFA. Still, it’s tough to gauge his skill level as he has yet to be tested extensively against top level competition. Amil is primarily a striker and he uses his range well. He has decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge how effective his grappling will be against UFC level opponents. Jeong Yeong Lee is 11-1 professionally, and one of the more promising young prospects fighting out of Korea. Lee is an aggressive striker who likes to walk down his opponents and back them against the cage. He fights out of a traditional Muay Thai stance, throws all of his limbs well, and his grappling has come a long way since he debuted professionally. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner. Lee is relatively well-rounded and hasn’t lost 2017, but this match-up represents a considerable step up in competition for him here. I do see him as the rightful favorite, but he’s tough to back with confidence at this price. Jeong Yeong Lee by Decision
Bill Algeo -175 vs Doo Ho Choi +140
- Anthony: The main card opens with this featherweight matchup between Bill Algeo and Doo Ho Choi. After a prolonged hiatus Choi returned to action last year, shaking off the rust against Kyle Nelson. That was not a good performance from the Korean Superboy who was taken down five times. Tonight will be a more favorable stylistic matchup facing a striker in Algeo. Doo Ho Choi is someone that just seems to show up and fight whenever there are other Koreans on the card. I think he has more punching power than Algeo and I could see him fairing very well in this matchup. Choi should land more straight shots than Algeo and find a home for his counters more often. He also could lose quite convincingly, absorbing two or three times the strikes that he lands. Choi does have a negative striking differential and Algeo is known for pushing a rapid pace. While it’s a tough fight to predict, I like the value of Choi as the betting underdog. Algeo is a volatile fighter and someone I’ve learned not to trust when he is moderately favored. Doo Ho Choi by Decision
- Nick: Bill Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt, but at times he spends too much time on his back chasing submissions. He’s certainly capable of fighting at a very high-level, but at 35-years old there is a chance we start to see a decline in his speed and durability. Algeo is coming off an ugly but controversial loss via KO to Kyle Nelson. Doo-Ho Choi is coming off a Draw, his only fight since December of 2019. As a South Korean citizen, he was forced to serve extensive time with the South Korean military. Choi is a powerful and athletic striker, but he hasn’t won a fight since 2016. His fight with Swanson was a fight of the year in 2016 and it is now a part of the UFC Hall of Fame. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot of openings to be countered. This should be a competitive match-up for however long it lasts, but I do see Algeo as the rightful favorite. His chin is certainly cause for concern, but I expect as this fight wears on he’ll manage to weaponize his cardio. Bill Algeo by Round Three Submission
Bruno Silva -115 vs Cody Durden -105
- Anthony: Next is a good scrap at flyweight between Cody Durden and Bruno Silva. After a rocky start to his UFC career, Silva has rattled off three straight wins all by stoppage. He is a dynamic athlete landing five total knockdows in his last five rounds of action. The level of competition has not been very good but Silva has proven to be a dangerous opponent, especially in the first half of his fights. Durden is a tricky southpaw that often does well avoiding damage and rolling with his opponent’s strikes. He has never been knocked out before and I don’t fear Silva being the first man to crack Durden’s chin. This fight will likely be sketchy for Durden early but as the clock ticks, he will become more comfortable and have better cardio than Silva. Durden is a credentialed wrestler and legitimate takedown threat. I expect him to test Silva’s takedown defense today and certainly at least threaten with a single leg attempt in each of these rounds. He should be able to wear out Silva here before the final horn sounds. Durden is somebody I am interested in betting tonight at even money. Cody Durden by Decision
- Nick: We have an interesting matchup at flyweight here between two former training partners. Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in most matchups we see him try to score takedowns to control position and grind out wins on the scorecards. Bruno Silva is fairly well-rounded with powerful boxing technique and decent offensive grappling ability. He has impressive power in exchanges and he’s excellent out of breaks from close range. He has six wins via KO and four via submission. He’s coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner and carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Silva will be dangerous early here, but I expect Duren to pull away as this fight wears on. He’s going to be much bigger than Silva and I also expect he’ll do well in keeping this fight mostly up against the cage and on the ground. Cody Durden by Decision
Kaynan Kruschewsky -135 vs Kurt Holobaugh +115
- Anthony: This matchup comes at lightweight between Kurt Holobaugh and Kaynan Kruschewsky. I think it will be a good test for Kruschewsky who has very few quality wins to his credit. The Brazilian’s striking is superb but generally his fights are not won very cleanly. He likes to take more risks on the feet and challenge opponents to match his power moving forward. I am a fan of Kruschewsky’s kicks from range. Holobaugh poses a good test having much more experience but a salty UFC record of just 1-5. Hopefully the veteran can take this fight to the mat in order to even the playing field. Kruschewsky should be capable on the ground training his jiu jitsu with Revira Black Team, but I think Holobaugh is the far more complete fighter. He has ten submission wins to his credit and boasts a black belt under Rafael Ellwanger. Sure Holobaugh has not historically been profitable as an underdog, but I am not going to lay any money on Kruschewsky as the betting favorite. Kurt Holobaugh by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Kurt Holobaugh is primarily a striker. He has a solid chin and moves well at range, but he is most comfortable fighting in the pocket. He strings together effective combinations, he uses all of his limbs well, and seven of his twenty professional wins have come via KO. He’s also competent on the mat, especially offensively, with ten of his twenty professional wins coming via submission. He most recently lost in an uninspiring performance against Trey Ogden, where he was dominated on the mat for the better part of fifteen minutes. Kaynan Kruchewsky is coming off a KO loss to Elvis Brener in his UFC debut, but he took that fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Kruchewsky’s most recent win came via Submission of Dylan Mantello on the Contender Series. Prior to that he had secured the Jungle Fight Lightweight Championship and many have him pegged as a prospect to watch given his 15-2 record fighting out of a deep talent pool in Brazil. This is a fight that I could certainly see going either way as both of these guys are well-rounded. That being said, I’ll side with the experience advantage for Holobaugh here. I expect he can stay a step ahead on his way to a narrow decision. Kurt Holobaugh by Decision
Steve Garcia -150 vs Seung Woo Choi +125
- Anthony: The co-main event is a matchup at featherweight between Steve Garcia and Seung Woo Choi. We should be in store for a good striking battle here with both men looking to engage on the feet. Garcia has been on a good tear lately fighting at both 145 and 155 pounds. At this weight class he has power that is tough to match and a motor good for a hard fifteen minutes. Choi also hits hard and possesses legit knockout power, however he is far more reckless in the pocket. I think Choi can win this fight by engaging with Garcia at range but he will get lit up standing and trading long in the pocket. Garcia is more defensively reliable, absorbing on average just 2.40 significant strikes per minute. From the southpaw stance I expect him to land the bigger shots and win convincingly. Garcia has been lighting up opponents with his boxing and I expect that trend to continue here today. Steve Garcia by Round Two KO
- Nick: Seung Woo Choi, a once highly regarded prospect out of South Korea, is coming off a solid decision win over Jarno Errens. He has surprising power for his frame on the feet, and excellent footwork and head movement defensively. He can be tentative at times, but his athleticism and overall explosiveness is what stands out when you watch him on film. Choi recently shifted camps to Kill Cliff FC. He’s training directly under Henry Hooft, one of the best striking coaches in the sport. Given the recent shift in camps, I expect we continue to see considerable improvements from Choi here. Steve Garcia is a decent striker with surprising power for his frame. He is far from technical on the feet, but he can eat a punch and keep pushing forward as he does a good job keeping volume on his opponents. He’s a decent grappler, but he’s certainly more content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s coming off three straight wins by knockout. This matchup has ‘Fight of the Night’ potential, but I expect Garcia’s power and grappling advantages to be enough to land him in the win column once again. Steve Garcia by Round Two KO
Virna Jandiroba -130 vs Amanda Lemos +110
- Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight bout between Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. For a large part of Lemos’ UFC career she has faced adversity only when opponents can take fights to the mat. Lemos is a dangerous southpaw striker with good length for the division. She fights with consistent pacing and lands punches in combination with her opponents. Lemos has crisp boxing and certainly the edge striking here against Jandiroba. This fight will be decided by Jandiroba’s wrestling and grappling. Lemos defended two of three takedowns against Mackenzie Dern and earned a victory in that bout despite ceding six minutes of control time. In the atmosphere of five rounds tonight, it will again be imperative that Lemos keep her feet. Jandiroba is an elite jiu jitsu practitioner who wraps up foes with ease on the mat. She has won three straight fights and averages nearly one takedown landed per round. While Jandiroba does not have the best striking offense she is effective at using her punches to close distance and mix up her fights. Lemos may have more experience against upper echelon competition but this fight sways heavily into Jandiroba’s favor as soon as that first takedown lands. Jandiroba has also only suffered recent losses to opponents that can match or at least neutralize her grappling. The decisive grappling edge for Jandiroba makes her the rightful favorite in my eyes. Virna Jandiroba by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Virna Jandiroba is most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her general wrestling ability can leave a lot to be desired. Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. She’s coming off three straight wins, all via decision, and brings a lot of momentum into this match-up. Amanda Lemos is an effective striker at range with underrated power for the division. She’s 14-3-1 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. She is coming off an impressive win over Mackenzie Dern, and prior to that she fell via decision in a title fight against Weili Zhang. She’s a technically sound striker and competent on the mat, but she’s risen through the ranks off her brute strength and power on the feet. She’s going to be the much better striker in this particular match-up, but I’m not confident in her ability to keep this fight standing. Jandiroba should have enough durability to secure the takedowns she needs here. Another low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite as the better grappler by a considerable margin. Virna Jandiroba by Round Three Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com