UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs Aliskerov – 6.22.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs Aliskerov. Today’s fights come from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia with a fight night card stacked with elite talent. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 157-90-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 154-93-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-21-2024 at 8pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST
Xiao Long -125 vs Chang Ho Lee +105
- Anthony: The card today opens with a bantamweight fight between Xiao Long and Chang Ho Lee. This is the final for Road to the UFC and the tournament champion here will earn a contract with the promotion. Both men enter with impressive win streaks over the past year. Chang Ho Lee has less experience than his rival and we have yet to see him face very solid competition. However, Lee does very well making his presence felt in the cage and dominating opponents in grappling exchanges. His wrestling is good and we have see very good ground and pound displayed by Chang Ho Lee. Long is the much more technically skilled striker and I give him the edge in this matchup as a result. His control of distance and excellent counters will give a lot of trouble to the opposing Lee. Long has also proven very capable of sprawling and defending opponent takedown attempts. His path to victory seems more evident in this fight and for that reason he is the slight favorite. I am expecting this to be an exciting back and forth. Xiao Long by Decision
- Nick: This match-up between Xiao Long and Chang Ho Lee represents the Road to UFC Tournament final at bantamweight. Long Xiao is 26-8 professionally, with four wins coming via KO and nine coming via submission He’s just 26 years old so he continues to show massive improvements everywhere from fight to fight. He’s coming off an impressive win via Decision over a tough out in Shuya Kamikubo. He’s a competent grappler, but he seems most comfortable to stand and trade on the feet. Chang Ho Lee is 9-1 professionally, with four wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He’s 30-years old and relatively well-rounded, but he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. This is a tough fight to call as each of these fighters are somewhat of a mystery here making their respective debuts, but I do see Long Xiao as the rightful favorite. I expect Long to land the bigger shots on the feet and he should win the scrambles if this fight hits the mat. Xiao Long by Decision
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov -375 vs Brendson Ribeiro +280
- Anthony: This is a contest at light heavyweight between Magomed Gadzhiyasulov and Brendson Ribeiro. Gadzhiyasulov is an undefeated Dagestani fighter who represents the Kingdom of Bahrain. He is a skilled sambo practitioner and excellent at employing a offensive grappling attack. While we do not always see exciting fights from Gadzhiyasulov, his style is effective and opponents struggle to find space as he closes in. Ribeiro seems to be up against it here given his fighting pedigree. Generally we see Ribeiro only engaging on the mat when it comes to defensive submission attempts. As Gadzhiyasulov scores takedowns on Ribeiro here he will pull for high-risk attacks such as the guillotine. Ribeiro would much rather keep this fight standing where he may strike but I do not believe he will be afforded that opportunity. Ribeiro will eventually fall apart here with Gadzhiyasulov on top of him. Five of Ribeiro’s six professional losses have come by way of finish. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 8-0 professionally, coming off a Contender Series win via decision over José Medina. Gadzhiyasulov is 30 years old, and he’s fought for respectable regional promotions via Eagle FC and Brave CF. He’s relatively well-rounded, but most of his success has come via his striking. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. All fifteen of his professional wins have come via finish, but he’s also been finished in five of his six professional losses. He mostly recently fell in his UFC debut via KO to Mingyang Zhang. As dangerous as he is offensively, he’s likely to be outskilled in this matchup. Gadzhiyasulov is the much better grappler and the more technical striker, especially defensively. I don’t like the price here, but I expect he can weather an early storm from Ribeiro then dominate as the fight wears on. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov by Round Three KO
Muin Gafurov -165 vs Kyung Ho Kang +140
- Anthony: This is a bout at bantamweight with Muin Gafurov set to face Kyung Ho Kang. I had a very tough time handicapping this fight given the recent performances out of both men. Since arriving in the UFC, Gafurov has been very underwhelming. The most recent appearance for Gafurov was a loss to Said Nurmagomedov in the fight’s first minute. I think that while he is a gritty fighter with a lot of strength, Gafurov can be overly aggressive and sometimes he pays the price. Kyung Ho Kang is a much more measured athlete and more calm in the cage. Kang has a wealth of experience to draw on here fighting at the highest level. I expect to see the better strikes coming from Kang’s side as he leads with his jab and lands counters when Gafurov overextends. However, Gafurov is also a good offensive wrestler and Kang can struggle to keep his feet at times. This fight becomes much more compelling if Gafurov is capable of taking Kang down. I think we end up seeing Kang pinned on the canvas for much longer than he would prefer in this spot. It will likely be a fight that goes to the judge’s scorecards. Muin Gafurov by Decision
- Nick: Muin Gafurov is fairly well-rounded, with eleven wins coming via KO and seven via submission. He is coming off back-to-back losses since he arrived in the UFC, but he is a former LFA Bantamweight Champion with additional high level experience for promotions such as UAE Warriors and ONE Championship. Gafurov is dangerous everywhere, but he’s small for the division. His cardio and durability seem to be more of a weakness than a strength. Kyung Ho Kang works behind a powerful jab. He’s a highly technical striker with excellent footwork and head movement, but he’s been inconsistent at the UFC level in spite of his physical gifts. Kang fights long, he does a good job using his offense to keep his opponents at range. His grappling is underrated, but he’s not always willing to lean on that part of his game. This should be a very competitive match-up between two similar fighters. I like the value on the Kang here as he leads on his size and athleticism. Kyung Ho Kang by Decision
Rinat Fakhretdinov -375 vs Nicolas Dalby +280
- Anthony: This is a contest at welterweight between Nicolas Dalby and Rinat Fakhretdinov. Dalby has been on a very tidy run winning four consecutive fights. We often see Dalby fighting through adversity and taking over against opponents as bouts go late. Whether it be his breathing or genetics, Dalby always has ample cardio available even toward the end of round three. We will likely see Fakhretdinov look to takedown Dalby quickly and get this fight to positions where he may find success. Dalby has only defended 60 percent of opponent takedowns in the UFC. Fakhretdinov should stick to a gameplan that works here as he looks to get back into the win column. Fakhretdinov’s fight with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was ruled a draw after he was on the receiving end of a 10-8 round three. I am concerned about betting him again today at this steep price tag. Dalby could certainly weather an early storm from Rinat and take over in the fight’s latter half. Hopefully Fakhretdinov can score an early finish before we need to worry about his cardio lasting. If it goes to a decision I do not like his chances. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Round One Submission
- Nick: Primarily a grappler, it’s a bit surprising to see eleven of Fakhretdinov’s twenty-two professional wins have come by knockout. He has an impressive record at 22-2-1, coming off a hard fought Draw with a tough out in Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Fakhretdinov is a gifted wrestler who does exceptional work against the cage. He throws powerful strikes but mostly as a means to set up his grappling. It seems his striking has come a long way over the past few years. That being said, his cardio and durability are still a bit of a question mark at this level. Nicolas Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. He’s decent on the feet, but doesn’t throw much volume. He can be dangerous offensively, but defensively he is often there to be countered as he throws looping power shots rather than tight compact combinations. Dalby has never been finished and I do expect he’ll have a cardio advantage in this match-up. He’s coming off an impressive win over Gabriel Bonfim in which he weathered an early offensive storm and then took over late, weaponizing his excellent cardio and durability. The line feels wide here as Dalby is very difficult to finish. He’s going to have a cardio and durability advantage as an underdog, so there is a chance he can pull off another upset. I do expect Fakhretdinov can secure the takedowns he needs here to drown Dalby late, but my confidence in him as a favorite isn’t anywhere near where the betting market has him priced. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision
Muhammad Naimov -110 vs Felipe Lima -110
- Anthony: This will be a bout at featherweight with Felipe Lima taking on Muhammad Naimov. The bout here materialized on rather short notice after Naimov was initially slated to face Melsik Baghdasaryan. Lima will be a very good dance partner for Naimov but not nearly as skilled a striker as his previous booking. Lima won the Oktagon bantamweight championship in his last fight and now moves up in weight today for this matchup. He has a wide arsenal of attacks to draw from and seems to be building into a rather complete fighter. Lima also is fully prepared for three rounds after a great camp at Allstars Training Center. He was in preparation of a bout coming July. Naimov will be much stronger than Lima in the clinch and in any positions on the ground here. I think while Lima can hold his own striking with Naimov we see him smothered on the mat instead. This is not a confident bet for me but at even odds I will roll the dice with Naimov. Muhammad Naimov by Decision
- Nick: Muhammad Naimov is 11-2 professionally, coming off impressive wins over Erik Silva, Nathaniel Wood and Jamie Mullarkey. Now 3-0 in the UFC, Naimov was a heavy underdog in both of the Wood and Mullarkey match-ups. Naimov is well rounded with five wins via KO and three via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. He is an explosive striker offensively, but he sometimes chases big shots. This can leave him open to be countered, but it is certainly notable that he has never been finished professionally. Felipe Lima will be making his UFC debut in this match-up, with an 11-1 professional record. He hasn’t lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2015, training out of the same camp as Khamzat Chimaev via Allstars in Sweden. Lima generally does a good job fighting moving backwards. He has technically sound striking, a solid understanding of footwork, and his takedown defense has mostly held up to this point in his career. This fight should play out competitively, but Naimov’s size and strength will likely be the difference here. I expect he can land the bigger shots and score enough takedowns to secure a narrow decision. Muhammad Naimov by Decision
Nasrat Haqparast -240 vs Jared Gordon +190
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a contest at lightweight between Jared Gordon and Nasrat Haqparast. We should get to action early here with these two fighters often ready to engage on the feet. Gordon is coming off a great win this past fall, stopping Mark Madsen by first round knockout. Gordon has always had exceptional boxing, his steady volume and great defense make him a very tough fighter to outland. Generally we see the same pace from Gordon kept over the course of fifteen minutes. Haqparast will likely get a lead against him here but I could see things leveling out for the longer that this bout goes. Haqparast is much quicker than Gordon and more diverse in his offensive attacks. Gordon has also struggled in the past against southpaw opponents. I think that these odds should be much closer than odds suggest but my pick nonetheless is Haqparast. His recent wins are even better than Gordon’s and I think he gets the better of most exchanges here. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision
- Nick: Nasrat Haqparast is a technical striker who fights well at range. He lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he defends more than 64% of the strikes thrown against him. He was once regarded as a top prospect at 155, but it has taken him some time to build momentum. He’s coming off three consecutive wins over decent competition, but the match-up with Gordon represents a step up in competition for him here. Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off an impressive KO win over Mark Madsen. Gordon works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. This is another fight in which the line feels wide considering the likelihood of it playing out close. I’ll take a small stab on the underdog in hopes he’ll mix in his grappling here. Jared Gordon by Decision
Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST
Johnny Walker -125 vs Volkan Oezdemir +105
- Anthony: The main card begins with light heavyweights Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker. I find this to be an intriguing booking as the consistent and reliable Oezdemir will face quite a wild opponent. Walker has improved drastically over the past few years but he still struggles against upper echelon foes. His previous two appearances came against Magomed Ankalaev but I did not expect to see the Brazilian get his hand raised drawing into a top five fighter like that. Oezdemir is a much more favorable draw and likely someone that could oblige Walker here on the feet. Both men are dynamic strikers with exceptional power, but Walker is far faster and more explosive here at this stage of their careers. Oezdemir has been a fade of mine for quite a while. I find the Russian to be a bit underwhelming in terms of his volume and aggression in the cage. Walker will have the bigger moments in this fight and I expect it to be an easy win for him if Oezdemir does not catch him first. I think this is appropriately lined as a pickem fight given Walker’s suspect chin and flair for the dramatic. In terms of skillset I think he is far more dynamic than Volkan Oezdemir. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO
- Nick: Johnny Walker is extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fight IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. Volkan Oezdemir is an extremely powerful striker, who has been in there against a who’s who at 205 lbs. He’s faced an extremely high level of competition, but his career does seem to be on a bit of a downturn as his power isn’t quite as devastating as it was when he entered the UFC. These are two extremely powerful strikers and they also have sneaky upside if this fight hits the mat. I slightly prefer Walker here as Oezdemir seems a bit past his prime. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO
Sharaputdin Magomedov -550 vs Antonio Trocoli +400
- Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Antonio Trocoli and Sharaputdin Magomedov. Both men can consider this a short notice booking with Magomedov scheduled to face Joilton Lutterbach before a positive drug test disqualified him. Trocoli takes this bout on just a few days notice, originally slated to face Ikram Aliskerov in a bout that did not materialize last weekend. Magomedov is a prohibitive favorite in this bout likely due to the short notice booking. I am a huge fan of Magomedov who uses dynamic kickboxing to control his fights on the feet. The lead leg of Magomedov is incredible as he constantly throws this attack low and high, like it is a jab. In addition to his K-1 experience, Magomedov was also a Eurasia champion in Burmese boxing. He is much better than Trocoli when it comes to the art of striking. The best chance for Trocoli to pull an upset here would be utilizing grappling and takedowns. Magomedov was taken down three times in his debut but that fight still saw him win rather comfortably. I expect an even better showing from Sharaputdin here in his sophomore showing. Sharaputdin Magomedov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Sharaputdin Magomedov is an explosive striker, extremely dangerous both at range and in the clinch. He’s a competent wrestler who can dominate in top position, but there is no denying the fact he is most content to stand-and-trade on the feet. Magomedov is very light on his feet. He’s constantly bouncing in the cage and while his strikes can be somewhat untraditional he fights out of a muay-thai stance. He is 12-0 professionally, with ten of those wins coming via KO. He’s coming off a solid win via decision over Bruno Silva in his UFC debut, but that fight played out much closer than expected. Antonio Trocoli will be making his UFC debut here, entering this fight with a 12-3 record at 33 years-old. He is relatively well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. Five of his wins have come via submission and four have come via KO. He’s taking this fight on extremely short notice as a replacement for Joilton Lutterbach. He could pull off the upset here if he can ground Magomedov consistently, but I’m not confident in his ability to do so. Sharaputdin Magomedov by Round Two KO
Kelvin Gastelum -210 vs Daniel Rodriguez +170
- Anthony: The featured bout is a contest between Daniel Rodriguez and Kelvin Gastelum. This bout was scheduled to take place at welterweight but due to complications making weight, Kelvin Gastelum has had it moved to 185 pounds. Gastelum has always been a lazy athlete but another mishap with his weight draws some concern. With more than twelve months to prepare for this date I wonder if it perhaps an injury that is limiting Gastelum. I feel he is declining quickly and no longer the tough out that he has always been. Gastelum has a slight edge over Rodriguez here but I do not think it is appropriate that he is such a big favorite. This will likely be a match at boxing range where both Gastelum and Rodriguez do their best work. Gastelum has the better pure boxing but throws with far less volume than D-Rod. The southpaw could really score well here against Kelvin in a fight that seems likely to go the distance. Gastelum has always been very durable but at middleweight he seems impossible to knock out. Rodriguez will need to be aggressive in this bout and keep Gastelum from taking him down. I think he is a good value bet at these odds. Daniel Rodriguez by Decision
- Nick: Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t been all that impressive recently, but there is no denying he has shown flashes of greatness in the past. His war with Israel Adesanya is considered by many as one of the best title fights in the history of the sport. Gastelum has surprising hand speed, and impressive cardio and durability. Additionally, his boxing is undeniably at a tremendously high level. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Sean Brady, a fight in which he was dominated on the mat. This match-up with Rodriguez here should certainly be more favorable for him stylistically. Daniel Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising as he is currently coached by Joe Schilling. He hasn’t really used his grappling much at the UFC level, but he holds a Brown Belt in BJJ via 10th Planet. He’s certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, but he’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. He’s been out of action since May of 2023. This fight was originally scheduled to take place at 170 lbs, but Gastelum botched his weight cut. Rodriguez agreed to take the fight at 185 lbs instead, but it’s tough to know if Gastelum has struggled with his weight cut or if the move up was strategic. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll side with the favorite as he’s the better technical fighter in this match-up if both guys are healthy. Kelvin Gastelum by Decision
Sergei Pavlovich -250 vs Alexander Volkov +200
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight between Russian heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov. This is the first appearance for Pavlovich in more than six months, losing to Tom Aspinall in his quest for an interim heavyweight title. Pavlovich got knocked out quickly in that fight but I certainly hold the current champion in very high regard. Aspinall was able to match Pavlovich’s speed, aggression and power in that fight making all of the difference. Most other heavyweights struggle to get respect from Pavlovich and keep fights from ending early. Pavlovich has now seen all eight of his UFC appearances end in round number one. The southpaw striker presents a unique challenge given his 84-inch reach and unmatched punching power. Volkov will struggle to keep distance in this fight with Pavlovich quickly crashing towards him. The recent run for Volkov has really impressed me with three straight wins via stoppage. However, I think this is a fight that favors Pavlovich for the first eight minutes. Volkov has also been very vocal about Pavlovich as a former training partner. It seems this is a fight that Drago did not want to sign the contract and take. Pavlovich should find the chin of Volkov early and end this fight before the first round’s horn. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
- Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well and works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, and he’s coming off three straight wins via finish. Volkov is 37-10 professionally, and he’s taken on the majority of the big names in the division. He’s going to have technical advantages on the feet in this match-up, but he’s going to need to be on point defensively. Sergei Pavlovich has an extremely powerful left hand. He does a good job setting it up behind his jab and while he isn’t very fast, he is deceptively explosive for a heavyweight. Pavlovich is 18-2, with all eighteen wins coming by knockout. He is coming off a KO loss to the current Interim Heavyweight Champion, Tom Aspinall. However, prior to that fight he had strung together an impressive seven fight win streak with all of those wins coming via first round stoppage. Volkov will have a length here and he’s the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up, but I don’t expect he’ll manage to keep Pavlovich from closing distance. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
Robert Whittaker -150 vs Ikram Aliskerov +125
- Anthony: The main event is a middleweight contest between Ikram Aliskerov and Robert Whittaker. After originally being slated to face Khamzat Chimaev, Whittaker draws into another killer on just two weeks notice. Aliskerov is a Dagestani with a record of 15-1. His only loss as a professional came by knockout against Chimaev years ago. He has won both of his UFC appearances by knockout in less than one half a round. Aliskerov is a southpaw that is quick to engage aggressively with his opponents. He will get right after Whittaker making it likely that an Aliskerov win is via finish. Aliskerov not only strikes aggressively but his wrestling is legit and he has the ability to submit Whittaker. However, the longer that this fight goes the more it will sway into the favor of The Reaper. Whittaker will land the better combinations in this fight whilst keeping himself out of harms way. A long career in the octagon has seen Whittaker absorb only 41 percent of opponent attempted strikes. He has proven to be the more durable athlete and reliable over five rounds. Aliskerov also is coming off an extended fight camp to make this short notice appearance. He has now been cutting weight for almost ten days after canceling his scheduled fight last weekend. I do not think he holds up here against Whittaker, a great bet at these odds. I am looking for the rear body kick to land often for him here. Robert Whittaker by Round Three KO
- Nick: Dating back to 2015, Whittaker has only lost to champions of the division in Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. Whittaker is very cerebral defensively and generally does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents. Additionally, he does a good job staying on the offensive even when he’s backing up. Ikram Aliskerov is 15-1 professionally, with his only loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev back in 2019. He’s primarily a grappler but often described as well-rounded, with five wins coming via submission and six coming via KO. He carries decent power on the feet, but his striking is far from technical as he throws mostly hooks and chases knockouts without much concern for defense. He’s one of the better wrestlers in the division, but he seems to prefer to stand and trade as a means to conserve cardio. Aliskerov is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Khamzat Chimaev. I like that Whittaker has been leaning on his leg kicks a lot lately. This will be a valuable weapon for him here as a means to keep Aliskerov from closing the distance. Aliskerov is a potent finisher, but Whittaker’s defensive strengths should present a brutal match-up for him stylistically. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Aliskerov land a timely shot and pull off the upset, Whittaker certainly deserves to be favored here. I expect he can stay a step ahead until he puts Aliskerov away late. Robert Whittaker by Round Four KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com