UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka II – 6.29.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka II. International Fight Week will move forward tonight in Las Vegas with a stacked card despite the news last month of Conor McGregor withdrawing. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 163-95-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 159-99-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-28-2024 at 10pm EST
Also watch: UFC 303 Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 – Full Card Analysis
Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST
Ricky Simon -250 vs Vinicius Oliveira +200
- Anthony: Opening the action will be bantamweight fighters Ricky Simon and Vinicius Oliveira. This is a key fight for Simon as he looks to bounce back from consecutive losses. Oliveira is not an established 135er and this is a fight that on paper, Simon will win. He is an elite offensive wrestler and very good at controlling opponents on the mat. Oliveira was taken down three times in his UFC debut against a short notice opponent in Bernardo Sopaj. He seemed to do well getting back on his feet there but now faces much stiffer competition, I could see Oliveira really struggling on the mat. The Brazilian is a more complete striker than Simon but he will fail to fight effectively here if he needs to constantly sweat the takedown threat. Simon seems priced appropriately as the favorite here. He should keep Oliveira pinned to the mat and win this bout convincingly with his grappling. Ricky Simon by Decision
- Nick: Vinicius Oliveira is 28 years-old, a 20-3 professional with sixteen of those wins coming via knockout. Oliveira is an extremely powerful striker who seems to do his best work in the pocket. He’s a physical specimen for a bantamweight. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he can be open to be countered in exchanges. He’s coming off a highlight reel KO via flying knee in his UFC debut against Benardo Sopaj. Oliveira was losing a lot of that fight, but his cardio outlasted Sopaj and he managed to dominate late until he found that timely finish. Ricky Simon is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2019, but he’s still a tough out for almost anyone in the world at bantamweight. Simon averages just shy of a ridiculous six takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage here and I expect he’s not far off from Oliveira in terms of technical striking ability. If Simon makes the mistake of standing and swinging with Oliveira he could find himself on the wrong end of an upset here. That being said, I feel he’s the more well-rounded fighter here and the fighter with more paths to victory. I expect Simon to lean on his grappling as he pulls this one out on the mat. Ricky Simon by Round Two Submission
Rei Tsuruya -500 vs Carlos Hernandez +350
- Anthony: Next is a contest at men’s flyweight with Rei Tsuruya facing Carlos Hernandez. This is the UFC debut for Tsuruya who enters the promotion a perfect 9-0. Tsuruya earned three solid wins fighting the Road to UFC tournament but his resume otherwise seems thin. He has very good wrestling and a high rate of converting his takedown attempts. Hernandez’ last fight saw him lose a decision to Tatsuro Taira, another undefeated prospect from Japan. I think Tsuruya still lacks a lot of the jiu jitsu skills that Taira has already displayed in the octagon. He is only 22 years old and I’ve noticed he struggles to put on very dominant showings with his jiu jitsu. Hernandez defends 65 percent of opponent takedowns and fights smart when he does get grounded. It would not surprise me to see Tsuruya wipe the floor with Hernandez, but I think we instead get very competitive wrestling scrambles in this bout. Hernandez has the better footwork and offensive striking, making him a live underdog. These odds have gotten too wide since this match was announced. Carlos Hernandez by Decision
- Nick: Rei Tsuruya will be making his UFC debut here, following a victory in the final of the Road to UFC tournament at flyweight. Tsuruya is 9-0 professionally, with four of those wins coming via submission and four coming via KO. He’s extremely well-rounded for a 22-year old. He has slick BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles, and he carries surprising power for his frame. While he can be hittable in exchanges, he does seem to win most of the minutes we see him in the cage. We haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition, but he seems to check all of the boxes as a prospect worth keeping an eye on moving forward. Carlos Herndandez is primarily a striker. He has excellent footwork, a high guard, and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. His defensive grappling continues to improve, and he’s done fairly well at the UFC level securing a 2-2 record since he made his debut. Hernandez does represent a step up in competition for Tsuruya here, but he has a bad habit of giving up his back when he works his way back to his feet. The line feels wide here, and Hernandez could pull off the upset if he can extend this one. That being said, I do expect Tsuruya can find an early finish. Rei Tsuruya by Round One Submission
Martin Buday -275 vs Andrei Arlovski +220
- Anthony: Next is a fight between Martin Buday and Andrei Arlovski. I am not expecting a very exciting showdown here between slow and plodding heavyweights. Buday looked awful in his last octagon showing, losing badly against Shamil Gaziev. We often see Buday controlling opponents and keeping them pressured against the cage side but his grappling does not seem to be as high-level as it was once advertised. Hopefully six months away from action gave Buday time to adjust his pacing and develop some more diverse skills. The veteran Arlovski has better boxing than Buday, but at the age of 45 he is not putting anyone out with his hands. Arlovski will land well-timed counters here but I am not sure he will keep separated from Buday very long. While Arlovski has dropped three fights in a row he is still able to grind out low-level opponents like this and at least last to competitive decisions. This is a fight that likely goes to the scorecards and results in Buday winning thanks to his control. He is at least thirty pounds heavier than Arlovski. Martin Buday by Decision
- Nick: Martin Buday is primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability, but he is also totally content to play out fights at striking range. He has solid footwork and decent power for his frame, but he is sometimes slow and plodding and it seems he’s often too content to wait for fights to come to him. He is 4-1 in the UFC and 13-2 professionally, coming off an ugly KO loss to Shamil Gaziev back in December of 2023. Andrei Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his excellent fight IQ. He does a decent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. While he can still look decent at times, Arlovski is coming off three-consecutive losses for the first time since 2017. If he can’t secure a win in this match-up, there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster. This is a low level match-up and the price is off, but I do see Buday as the rightful favorite. He has grappling upside, and he should carry a power advantage on the feet. Martin Buday by Decision
Gillian Robertson -190 vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez +155
- Anthony: This is a fight at women’s strawweight between Gillian Robertson and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. I think we are getting a great price on Robertson in this spot with both athletes heading in opposite directions. Waterson-Gomez is 38 years old and on a four-fight losing streak. Her only win since 2019 came by split decision against Angela Hill. We often see The Karate Hottie do her best work landing a high volume of strikes and mixing in her offensive wrestling. I think grappling with Robertson is a huge mistake and if Waterson does land a takedown in this fight, it results in her getting submitted. Robertson has nine professional wins by submission and a jiu jitsu black belt. We also saw Robertson secure at least one takedown in each of her last seven bouts. She should be much stronger than Waterson-Gomez having previously fought at 125 pounds. Robertson has also earned good wins recently, stopping Polyana Viana and Piera Rodriguez. In fact, Robertson’s last four wins have all come inside of the distance. She is one of my favorite bets on today’s card. Gillian Robertson by Round One Submission
- Nick: Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with nine of her thirteen professional wins coming via submission. Her striking continues to improve, and having recently moved down to strawweight she’s no longer outsized by the majority of her opponents. She seems to be entering her athletic prime, and she enters this match-up having won three of her last four fights. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is a well-rounded fighter, who has mostly only lost to top contenders. She’s decent on the feet, she puts out consistent volume, but she often misses her opponents as she throws a lot of strikes when she’s out of range. She’s on a four fight losing streak for the first time in her career and while she did recently sign a new contract, it seems likely she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win here. Waterson-Gomez will have a striking advantage here, but she doesn’t really put out enough power to stop Robertson from closing distance and taking this fight on the mat. Waterson-Gomez has decent BJJ, but it’s really not anywhere near Robertson’s level at this point in her career. Gillian Robertson by Round Two Submission
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Payton Talbott -1600 vs Yanis Ghemmouri +900
- Anthony: The preliminary card starts with bantamweights Payton Talbott and Yanis Ghemmouri. Talbott is prohibitively favored in this matchup but from what i have seen this line is almost justified. Talbott is a very talented striker coming from Reno Academy of Combat. He is fluid in his attacks, moving well in both stances while overwhelming opponents with feints and differing looks. Talbott does very well utilizing his kicks and closing the distance on opponents rather seamlessly. He is faster than Ghemmouri and has far superior footwork. Talbott’s last appearance was really a masterclass against a young and talented opponent in Cameron Saaiman. Talbott scored multiple knockdowns in that bout and put a hellish beating on him over the course of five minutes. Talbott should build as this fight goes later Ghemmouri’s defense gets worse. While Ghemmouri seems like a durable guy I do not see how he gets any respect here versus Talbott. This is a layup and I expect Talbott to find himself another finish for the highlight reel. Consider betting him inside the distance, there is no money to be made playing anyone at -1600. Payton Talbott by Round Three KO
- Nick: Payton Talbott is a gifted striker with surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents in exchanges. We haven’t seen him tested extensively on the mat, but he is coming off impressive wins over decent grapplers in Cameron Saaiman and Nick Aguirre. He is 8-0 and just 25-years-old, and certainly a prospect worth keeping an eye on moving forward. Yanis Ghemmouri seems to take a lot of damage in exchanges, but he does a good job building behind his jab on offense. Additionally, it seems he’s turned a corner in terms of landing shots with true KO power. He has solid takedown defense and a basic understanding of offensive grappling. He’s most content to stand-and-trade, but if he does hit the mat he’s relatively competent as a grappler. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to William Gomis, and it seems he’s being used as a sacrifice here for the UFC to build up the more promising prospect in Talbott. I recommend betting Talbott to win inside the distance here. He should dominate, but the moneyline price is a bit ridiculous. Payton Talbott by Round Two KO
Charles Jourdain -120 vs Jean Silva +100
- Anthony: This is a featherweight matchup between Jean Silva and Charles Jourdain. Silva will cede a portion of his fight purse to Jourdain after weighing more than a pound heavy yesterday. I think it is a poor look for Silva in just his second octagon appearance. I have a lot of respect for the Brazilian’s nine-fight winning streak but the competition Silva faced is not very high class. This should be a very thrilling matchup if it is contested between these two athletes on the feet. Silva is always creative with his attacks and keen on throwing looping hooks to close the distance. Jourdain is going to oblige a kickboxing match, utilizing his striking with better efficiency. Jourdain may not necessarily have the pop of Silva but a more sustained general output. Jourdain is often best in the latter halves of fights and I think that may be where he separates himself today. He’s more evasive than Silva while defending and the lighter man on his feet. Jourdain is going to land more straight shots up the middle, finding his target more often than Jean. If the judges get involved I like Jourdain’s chances but Silva may also struggle to last if we see a round three. Jourdain seems like a decent bet at near even odds. Charles Jourdain by Decision
- Nick: Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off an ugly decision loss to Sean Woodson, but he’s still a tough out for anyone outside of the rankings at 145 lbs. Jourdain has excellent cardio and he generally does a good job building momentum and giving the best showing of himself in later rounds. Jean Silva is 12-2 professionally, 27-years old, and fighting out of an excellent camp via Fighting Nerds in Brazil. Silva is relatively well-rounded with nine wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. Silva has a flashy style, but it’s relatively intelligent. He does a good job throwing feints to bait his opponents into power shots, and his durability and cardio. This should be a competitive and a violent match-up, but I do see Jourdain as the rightful favorite. He’s the superior technical fighter everywhere in this match-up and he’s been tested against a much better level of competition. Charles Jourdain by Round Three KO
Andre Fili -220 vs Cub Swanson +180
- Anthony: This should be a great featherweight scrap between Andre Fili and Cub Swanson. I really like this piece of matchmaking with two aging veterans facing off. Swanson surprised a lot of people by winning his last fight against Hakeem Dawodu. At the age of 40 he has remained a tough out and very profitable underdog bet. When kickboxing, Swanson will find this fight to be easier than Fili. Swanson spends most of his fights at range and lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute at distance. He also defends 62 percent of opponent’s distance strikes. I do not expect a knockout to come from either side here but Fili is probably the harder hitter. We could see Fili do very good work landing kicks today but I think he will come up short in a striking battle. He has longer reach than Swanson but Fili fights shorter and lands less volume. Fili will only look like a -220 favorite if he elects to shoot for takedowns and outgrapple Cub. We have only seen Fili land two successful shots in his previous seven takedown attempts. He may be rightfully favored here up against Swanson but I find it hard to justify these wide betting odds. Cub Swanson by Decision
- Nick: Andre Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful punches, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He is an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. He’s far past his prime, but Cub Swanson is a legend with wins over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Chad Mendes. He’s one of the more accomplished featherweights in the history of the UFC. Swanson has advanced technical ability both striking and in grappling exchanges. He has advanced BJJ, but he’s most advanced to stand and trade as his punching power is his most notable attribute. At 40-years-old, Swanson’s durability is certainly of some concern here as he was KO’d in each of his last two losses. He’s coming off a decision win over a tough out in Hakeem Dawodu, but that was a controversial decision and Swanson really didn’t look as explosive as he has in years past. The line feels too wide, but I see Fili winning a competitive decision. He should land the bigger shots on the feet and mix in his grappling if he needs to. Andre Fili by Decision
Joe Pyfer -300 vs Marc-Andre Barriault +240
- Anthony: The featured bout is a contest at middleweight between Joe Pyfer and Marc-Andre Barriault. We saw Pyfer’s win streak come to an end in his latest bout, a five round main event against Jack Hermansson. Pyfer fought very well early in that matchup but faded as the fight got into rounds three, four and five. We should see Pyfer manage his energy better here in a bout only scheduled for fifteen minutes. I like the boxing that Pyfer has and his power is visible with every shot that lands. Barriault is known for his grit and forward pressure, often breaking down opponents as his fights go late. He really is a perfect test for Pyfer’s cardio and a measure of where his true ceiling may lie. I expect Pyfer to land with power early and take control of these striking exchanges. He should get the win, but I am not confident betting him as a -300 favorite. Pyfer also has exceptional wrestling that he may put to use in this fight. Barriault has defended 67 percent of opponent takedown attempts. Joe Pyfer by Round One KO
- Nick: This should be a fun matchup as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing. Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is coming off an ugly loss to Jack Hermansson via decision, but prior to that he had strung together three consecutive KO wins under the UFC banner. Nine of his twelve professional wins have come via KO. Barriault fights at a torrid pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. This will be a fun one for however long it lasts, but I expect Pyfer to eventually find Barriaults chin on a counter. The price here seems ridiculous given the gap between these two in experience, but I expect Pyfer can find Barriault’s chin before his cardio becomes a factor. Joe Pyfer by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Ian Garry -160 vs Michael Page +135
- Anthony: The main card opens with this welterweight bout between Michael Venom Page and Ian Machado Garry. While I think both of these men could find themselves in a title fight very soon, only one will emerge from this event victorious. Page delivered in his UFC debut comfortably beating Kevin Holland. I am a big fan of his unorthodox style, searching for big counters on his opponents and winning most point-fights with his striking. Page is a black belt in kickboxing and one of the best karate practitioners in mixed martial arts. Garry will need to fight smart to land anything on Page without eating return fire. The 14-0 prospect is showcased on this card given the parallels to Conor McGregor. Garry will be a step faster than Page and land with the more consistent volume. I trust him to stick to a game plan, picking apart Page’s legs and body since his head is so hard to hit. Garry’s ability to switch stances allows him more entries into the pocket where he will be able to comfortably engage. Garry also has the edge grappling in this spot if he ends up falling behind. Certainly I think this is a very tight matchup but Garry seems like the rightful favorite to me. Ian Garry by Decision
- Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing as a prospect as he’s only 14-0. However, he already seems to be very well rounded. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. Michael Venom Page is 22-2 professionally, coming off an impressive decision win over Kevin Holland which came in his UFC debut. Page has spent most of his career fighting for Bellator, against a relatively quality level of opponent. Page is a gifted striker who fights out of a wide karate style stance. He throws a lot of feints to set up his power shots. He has power in all of his limbs, fights well behind his length/reach, and he generally does an excellent job countering and fighting off his back foot when he needs to. Twelve of Page’s professional wins have come via KO. He has excellent durability and he’s difficult to takedown, but he has had issues against wrestlers in the past. In all likelihood, this plays out as a low volume striking affair. I’ll take a shot on the value of Page here in what should end in a competitive decision. Michael Page by Decision
Mayra Bueno Silva -110 vs Macy Chiasson -110
- Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight contest between Macy Chiasson and Mayra Bueno Silva. While these odds currently sit at even pick em, they have shifted back and forth all week long. I think some folks are underrating Bueno Silva after what was an awful title fight in January. Three rounds between Sheetara and Chiasson should be extremely competitive. Bueno Silva will start very aggressively and keep a quick workrate today. She is a brawler that will battle Chiasson on the feet despite having a much clearer advantage on the ground. Chiasson has just 46 percent takedown defense. Bueno Silva has great offensive grappling and I expect her jiu jitsu prowess to be evident here. While Chiasson has been winning fights lately it has largely been due to her own offensive wrestling. In this fight it is imperative that Chiasson keeps things standing and lands the better strikes at range and in the clinch. Bueno Silva has a stronger build and better fundamentals on the mat. This will probably be a very close matchup but I feel Bueno Silva is the more skilled athlete. Hopefully we see her refocused and hungry after coming up short in a bid for championship gold. Mayra Bueno Silva by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Mayra Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt. She doesn’t really have much wrestling ability, so it’s rare we see her shoot for takedowns, but whenever she’s grounded she’s very capable of finishing her opponent. Bueno Silva is coming off a decision loss to Raquel Pennington in which she fought for the vacant women’s bantamweight title. She had moments early in that fight, but her cardio didn’t hold up well and she struggled to get back to her feet whenever Pennington took her down. Macy Chiasson is most effective striking in the clinch. She carries a powerful muay-thai base from which she mixes in dangerous elbows. She uses her reach well, but she is most effective when she closes distance and pulls her opponents into her strikes. She’s big for the division, and she’s able to outmuscle the majority of her opponents at bantamweight. Chiasson will have technical advantages on the feet here, but Bueno Silva is the better grappler and I expect her to dictate the pace in this one. Another low confidence play, but I’m backing the favorite. Mayra Bueno Silva by Round Two Submission
Roman Dolidze -145 vs Anthony Smith +120
- Anthony: The featured bout is a contest at light heavyweight between Roman Dolidze and Anthony Smith. In his last fight, Anthony Smith pulled off a massive upset and beat the previously undefeated Vitor Petrino. Lionheart is a former title challenger and one of the most active light heavyweights the past decade. The veteran of 57 professional fights beats just about everyone in terms of experience and his Fight IQ. However, Smith at this stage of his career has accumulated a lot of damage and seen many weaknesses exposed. Smith does not respond very well to being hit and when put in situations he cannot land offensive strikes. I think he can set an early pace here with his jab and beat Dolidze with more sustained and accurate boxing. Dolidze packs the bigger punch but his best work is done when fights hit the ground. It will be interesting to see Dolidze test his jiu jitsu credentials against the likes of Smith. Dolidze is an ADCC Champion while Smith boasts a blackbelt of his own in BJJ. I rate Smith a bit more highly on the mat with fifteen of his wins coming by way of submission. Dolidze should be favored if this fight goes late but I think Smith has a great chance of ending this fight early. He is the true light heavyweight while Dolidze is moving up from 185 pounds to take this opportunity. Anthony Smith by Round Two KO
- Nick: Roman Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was the owner of his own small gym before the move, this camp shift should help him improve considerably in each fight moving forward. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. As talented as he is, Dolidze is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the roster and this matchup with Smith is coming on extremely short notice as a replacement for Carlos Ulberg. Anthony Smith has shown outstanding cardio, and even in his recent losses he has shown quality durability. Even when he’s getting crushed, he is difficult or impossible to put away. He is certainly in the twilight of his career at 35-years old, but he’s coming into this matchup with some momentum off an impressive submission win over Vitor Petrino. He’s still one of the more technically sound fighters in the division and a tough out for up-and-comers regardless of their fighting style. These are two inconsistent fighters so this is a tough one to call. I’ll back Dolidze as the more aggressive and potent finisher, but this is a low confidence play. Roman Dolidze by Round Two KO
Diego Lopes -145 vs Brian Ortega +120
- Anthony: The co-main event is a thrilling matchup between Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega. These featherweights will be competing at 155 pounds due to Ortega botching this weight cut. The fight was booked less than a month ago which does make the miss a bit more understandable. Ortega won in a Fight Night main event this February, but not before getting touched up by Yair Rodriguez. I always hate fading Ortega given his dogged spirit and propensity to steal fights late. It seems his days at 145 pounds may be numbered but the man is still inspired to win and put on exciting shows. Lopes has been dynamite since joining the UFC and he enters here on a three fight winning streak. Not only has Lopes been getting his hand raised but all three of his recent victories came in under 100 seconds. He is confident when striking and very dangerous given the power we have seen. Lopes is also a very skilled jiu jitsu practitioner. It will be interesting to see who gets the better of grappling exchanges if these two do hit the mat tonight. Ortega is known for his lethal offensive BJJ and Lopes may be the only guy I trust to avoid submitting to him. I think it will be Lopes’ hands that end up deciding this one. He is a very aggressive fighter and I expect him to rock Ortega before the first round ends. I favor Ortega in the latter half of this bout or if it does go to the judge’s cards. Diego Lopes by Round Two KO
- Nick: Lopes is 24-6 professionally with ten wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ and excellent overall scrambling ability. He’s coming off impressive wins via finishes over Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and most recently Sodiq Yusuff back at UFC 300. He’s a prospect on the rise in the featherweight division, and it seems his striking continues to improve every time we see him in the cage. As a black belt under Rener Gracie, Ortega has extremely advanced jiu jitsu and offensive grappling ability. We’ve seen him score a variety of submissions against the best of this 145 pound division and while he has made serious improvements in his striking over the years, there’s no denying that his BJJ remains his most effective weapon. He is coming off an impressive win via submission over Yair Rodriguez, but it’s notable he couldn’t make 145 lbs and forced this fight up to lightweight after struggling with his weight cut. Ortega has the far more impressive resume, but Lopes’ momentum and power on the feet will likely be enough for him to find an early finish. If he can’t, Ortega will certainly be live to pull off the upset. Diego Lopes by Round One KO
Alex Pereira -160 vs Jiri Prochazka +135
- Anthony: The main event is a rematch for the light heavyweight title as Alex Pereira looks to defend against Jiri Prochazka. These men both answered the call to headline International Fight Week with minimal notice after competing at UFC 300. The two met previously at UFC 295 when Pereira won by knockout in the second round. I think this short notice booking will favor Jiri as Pereira was still traveling and celebrating a title defense two weeks ago. Pereira also sustained injuries to both feet after headlining UFC 300 and I do not think he has fully recovered. It also appears this was a tougher weight cut than usual for Poatan. He will open this fight with a lot of low kicks on Prochazka, establishing range and landing his straight shots. Prochazka will have to blitz into the pocket against Pereira and find a home for his combinations while moving forward. He seems more willing to take risks than Alex and he will need to do so in order to win. Prochazka also has a clear grappling advantage if he is able to drag Pereira to the mat. He landed one of three attempts when these two first met. I do not think either man expects to go a full five rounds on short notice, making this a very tough fight to predict. Prochazka will be dashing forward and hunting the knockout while Pereira stays composed and looks for another big counter to land. Prochazka fought well in their first meeting and he was priced at -105 when that match went off. There is more value betting him here today and I like his chances to get the job done. Prochazka will win by finish tonight, setting up an epic trilogy fight between these two. And New. Jiri Prochazka by Round Two KO
- Nick: Alex Pereira carries knockout power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet, he has outstanding footwork and head movement, and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Jiri Prochazka, a former division champion, tends to come out aggressive in his fights, making big movements around the cage and swinging wildly. He has shown stellar power and an ability to close the distance on his opponents both quickly and violently. He sometimes over-exerts on punches in exchanges and leaves himself open to counter shots, but he’s as dangerous of a fighter as there is in the world at 205 pounds. This fight represents a rematch of a fight Pereira won for the vacant Light Heavyweight Title back in November of 2011. Prochazka was winning for the most part, but he foolishly decided to trade strikes with Pereira against the cage until he was put down with a left hook. This is a volatile match-up, but I find myself on the underdog here. Pereira seems a bit caught off guard by the short notice nature of this match-up, he’s fighting with broken toes, and Jiri seems extremely focused on recapturing his title. Pereira’s leg kicks are going to be a difficult problem for Prochazka to solve, but Prochazka can lean on his grappling if he needs to. I also expect he has superior cardio here. And New. Jiri Prochazka by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com