UFC 302 Makhachev vs. Poirier Analysis

UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier – 6.1.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier. This pay-per-view will see the lightweight championship contested in Newark, New Jersey. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 132-78-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
Nick: 133-77-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 5-31-2024 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Andre Lima -300 vs Mitch Raposo +240

Anthony: The card today opens with a fight at flyweight between Andre Lima and Mitch Raposo. Lima was the only fighter heavy at weigh-ins, a total four pounds overweight. The undefeated fighter is drawing into Raposo here after having two previous opponents withdraw from this contest. His last octagon appearance came in March when he won by disqualification after getting bit by Igor Severino. Raposo will present some challenges to Lima in the realm of grappling here but the Brazilian is the rightful favorite for as long as this bout is contested on the feet. Raposo will struggle to match Lima technically and he has to overcome a three-inch edge in reach. I fear that unless Raposo lands consistent takedowns this is going to be a fight we see him get picked apart. Both these prospects should enjoy bright futures ahead but right now Lima appears to have the more refined skills. Andre Lima by Decision
Nick: Andre Lima enters this match-up at just 25-years old. He is 8-0 professionally, with five of his eight wins coming via KO. Lima is a dangerous offensive striker with surprising power for his frame. He does an excellent job mixing elbows into his combinations. He’s aggressive and throws a lot of volume in exchanges, and he’s shown he is more than willing to take shots to throw them. Lima is coming off a controversial win in his UFC debut, where he was awarded the victory via DQ after he was bitten by his opponent Igor Severino. Lima does a good job checking kicks. He’s defensively sound for his age and generally remains calm in exchanges despite how aggressive he can be offensively. Mitch Raposo is 9-1 professionally, making his UFC debut here at 25 years-old. Raposo is on a four fight win-streak regionally, and you may be familiar with his name as he’s made appearances on The Ultimate FIghter and the Contender Series. He’s relatively well-rounded, with most of his recent success coming on the feet. Each of his last three wins have come via KO. Raposo mostly fights off the back foot and Lima is extremely aggressive. Lima has a power advantage here, but there is no denying Raposo could be a tough out if he chooses to lean on his wrestling. My confidence isn’t very high at this price as Lima missed weight by four pounds, but he should be able to use his BJJ to either keep this fight standing or find a timely submission. He’s going to be the much bigger and more explosive athlete in this matchup. Andre Lima by Round Two Submission

Ailin Perez -200 vs Joselyne Edwards +160

Anthony: Next is a contest at women’s bantamweight between Joselyne Edwards and Ailin Perez. We often see Edwards able to win bouts by decision thanks to her length and good striking from distance. Coming off of a loss it will be imperative for Edwards to assert herself early and keep control of this cage. Perez has proven that she is a capable striker but we have largely seen her experience success over lower level competition. Perez will need to score takedowns here to convincingly beat Edwards. While Edwards has decent takedown defense, she is very meek in terms of her stand-up ability. Perez should be able to smother Edwards in this fight with her excellent chain wrestling and top pressure. We have previously seen Perez score 10 of 15 takedowns in a fight against Ashlee Evans-Smith. I am hopeful that we see a similar performance here from the Argentinian today. Ailin Perez by Decision
Nick: Ailin Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. In her most recent fights, she showed her grappling is improving at a rapid rate. Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. She has decent offensive grappling ability, but she has trouble getting back to her feet if she’s taken down by her opponent. She’s almost always in very close fights, and this is likely to be another one here against Perez. Perez is the rightful favorite here as she should have a considerable grappling advantage. That being said, the price feels a bit inflated as she does seem to fade late in fights. Ailin Perez by Decision

Bassil Hafez -400 vs Mickey Gall +300

Anthony: Next will be a contest at welterweight between Bassil Hafez and Mickey Gall. This is an odd booking with Gall appearing here for the first time in almost two years. He is a native of New Jersey and spent his career at the Gracie New Jersey Academy. Gall also fought Hafez previously during a submission grappling match in 2013. It would not surprise me to see Gall upset Hafez but I think his paths to victory seem limited. Perhaps with Hafez so comfortable grappling we see Gall convert on a submission attempt, but otherwise I find him unlikely to win. Hafez can throw hands with anyone and certainly won’t be at a power deficit against an opponent like Gall. I do not think that Hafez is anything special and it seems the -400 price tag is inflated. Nonetheless, I cannot in good conscience recommend betting a 7-5 Mickey Gall. Bassil Hafez by Round Two KO
Nick: Bassil Hafez has been out of action since his UFC debut in July of 2023, a fight in which he fell via split decision to Jack Della Maddalena. In spite of the loss, Hafez’s stock rose dramatically following that fight as he fought competitively for three rounds against one of the more highly regarded prospects in the division at welterweight. Hafez is 8-4-1 professionally. He’s well-rounded, with four of his wins coming via submission and one coming via KO. He’s athletic and explosive, and he’s shown excellent cardio and durability. Mickey Gall is fairly well-rounded, but most would consider him a one-trick pony. His striking is below average compared to other UFC level fighters, but he has decent enough grappling to squeeze out the occasional victory via submission. Gall has never really shown an ability to consistently perform at a top level. While he has certainly improved, he seems to be serving as a gatekeeper in this match-up. The line feels a bit wide, but I expect Hafez to overwhelm Gall early here. He’s the more potent finisher no matter where this fight goes. Bassil Hafez by Round One KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Jake Matthews -165 vs Phil Rowe +135

Anthony: Starting the preliminary card are welterweights Jake Matthews and Phil Rowe. Of all of the fights tonight this is the one that I find most difficult to predict. Rowe is a plus athlete and very solid fighter but his best work has come against rather lackluster competition. I do not rate very highly Rowe’s wins over Niko Price, Orion Cosce or Jason Witt. Rowe also came up short in his last performance, a mediocre showing against Neil Magny. I feel a key factor in this fight will be Matthews durability compared to a lot of guys that Rowe has more easily disposed of. His boxing has drastically improved and in terms of strikes landing in the pocket we will see Matthews converting at a higher rate of accuracy. Rowe will want to use his length here at distance while Matthews will instead look to stay at his chest. It may be a difficult fight for these judge’s to score but I expect Matthews to do the better work over fifteen minutes. He can win minutes against Rowe ib the fence or perhaps while converting one or two takedowns. Jake Matthews by Decision
Nick: Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 29-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. He has 12 wins under the UFC banner since he debuted back in 2014, but most of them have come against fighters that are no longer on the roster/with the promotion. His striking continues to improve, but he can be hittable in exchanges. Rowe is certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, having won three of his last four fights. He has a ridiculous 80.5-inch reach as one of the tallest welterweights on the UFC roster. Rowe does his best work fighting at range. He uses his length well, but he does tend to spend more time in the clinch than someone with his reach should. Additionally, most of his success has come against a very low level of opponent. If this fight only takes on the feet Rowe has a good chance to pull off the upset. However, it seems more likely Matthews will lean on a grappling heavy game plan as he weaponizes his cardio. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, I’m siding with the favorite. Jake Matthews by Decision

Grant Dawson -550 vs Joe Solecki +400

Anthony: This is a contest at lightweight between Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki. Both these fighters are coming off of knockout losses in their most recent showings. Dawson suffered a flash knockout against Bobby Green, losing in less than a minute. I am skeptical of Dawson’s chin here moving forward but against Joe Solecki I am not worried about him getting slept. Solecki does not land with very much power and instead relies on his grappling to find success. Solecki is an excellent jiu jitsu practitioner and dangerous when fights hit the mat. Dawson could play a dangerous game by taking down Soleck,i but I think he will end up finding success even if that is the case here. Dawson’s own grappling and dominant offensive wrestling should put him in a position to win this fight in top control. I think he will spend several minutes here navigating Solecki’s guard and keeping his man glued to the canvas. Dawson is also a better striker than Solecki if he were to stand and kickbox. He should look like the -550 that he is here if he keeps focused and mindful of submission attempts. Grant Dawson by Decision
Nick: Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 20-2-1 professionally, holding impressive wins over Damir Ismagulov, Mark Madsen and Jared Gordon. He’s most recently coming off a brutal KO loss to Bobby Green, and he’s been out of action since that fight took place back in October of 2023. In spite of that recent loss, Dawson has made dramatic improvements since he moved camps to the American Top Team. His cardio and overall fight IQ have improved dramatically. Solecki is an extremely well-rounded prospect who finds most of his success in grappling exchanges. He’s a long and strong wrestler whose striking continues to show improvement, but in most of his fights he looks to either grind his opponents up against the cage or win by controlling them on the mat. Solecki is 5-2 under the UFC banner and he has shown he has the skills both offensively and defensively to make some noise in a loaded 155 pound division. The line feels wide here, but Dawson should have Solecki covered. He’s the better striker and the stronger wrestler in this match-up. Solecki’s BJJ makes him somewhat live as an underdog at this price. Still, I find myself siding with the favorite. Grant Dawson by Decision

Jailton Almeida -325 vs Alexander Romanov +260

Anthony: Next is a heavyweight showdown between Jailton Almeida and Alexander Romanov. Almeida’s last fight saw his streak of 15-wins snapped and Curtis Blaydes earn that victory by second round knockout. Almeida is still going to mow through a lot of lower level heavyweights but I fear those with adequate grappling can present him the same challenge that Blaydes did. Romanov is an excellent offensive grappler but not necessarily very good on the defensive. He seems a bit out of shape but the former sumo wrestler has the acumen to defend submission attempts and navigate poor positions. I think Romanov could also potentially sweep Almeida thanks to his size and very good technique. Almeida is the more potent striker than Romanov but neither one of these athletes want to stand and kickbox for long. I am expecting a grueling duel here on the mat and another tough out for Almeida. While I certainly favor the Brazilian when it comes to predicting this matchup, I do not believe that Almeida warrants the -325 price that we are seeing. Romanov is one of very few underdogs that I would consider betting on tonight. Alexander Romanov by Round One KO
Nick: Jailton Almeida is extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. He’s coming off his first loss under the UFC banner, falling to Curtis Blaydes in the second round. Almeida was dominating that fight early but Blaydes managed to weather the early storm and secure the KO as Almeida refused to disengage on a takedown entry. The 33-year-old Romonav has shown an ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking ability at range, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. His striking is mostly plodding and predictable, and his cardio and durability have been questionable at best. Heavyweight fights can be volatile, but I do see Almeida as a class above his opponent in this match-up. He’s the much more dangerous striker of the two, much quick, and far more athletic. As long as he doesn’t find himself on his own back, he should cruise to a win. Jailton Almeida by Round Two KO

Cesar Almeida -125 vs Roman Kopylov +100

Anthony: The prelims close with a good tilt at middleweight between Cesar Almeida and Roman Kopylov. This fight will largely be contested at kickboxing range, where both men tend to do their best work. Kopylov last in his last appearance but that came against an exceptional grappler in Anthony Hernandez. Generally Kopylov does his best work in fights where he can let his hands go. Kopylov may not be as experienced in kickboxing as Almeida but a lifetime of combat has him ready for this matchup. Kopylov has developed better striking techniques than Almeida when it comes to mixed martial arts. Compared to Almeida, Kopylov is much better at weaponizing his kicks. Kopylov is also the more effective counterstriker and better than opponents when moving backwards. I anticipate that while Almeida is eager to engage here, Kopylov will be a bit more patient and allow this fight to develop with at a slower pace. He is likely to get the better of Almeida if this one does not get finished quickly. While it is certainly a tough matchup to predict, I like the value here on Kopylov as an even money underdog. Roman Kopylov by Round Three KO
Nick: Roman Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a good job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph many of his bigger shots. He’s coming off an ugly loss via submission to Anthony Hernandez, but prior to that fight he was on a four fight win streak with each of those wins coming via KO. Kopylov. Like Kopylov, Almeida is primarily a striker. He’s only 5-0 professionally in MMA, but he has an extensive resume in kickboxing that includes a win over current light heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira. Almeida has solid cardio and durability, and he can put power in his strikes even when he’s moving backwards. Like many kickboxers, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. However, he continues to show considerable improvement in that area of his game. Almeida is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut, via KO of Dylan Budka. This is a tough fight to call, but I slightly prefer Almeida here. He has the better cardio and durability, which should be enough for him to secure the win in this one. Cesar Almeida by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Randy Brown -185 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +150

Anthony: The main card begins at welterweight with Randy Brown facing Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Brown fights out of New York and certainly will get a pop here from the local crowd. I’d argue the last performance was one of Brown’s best, stopping Muslim Salikhov in the first round. Brown not only has a nasty jab but some clean combinations that start with his 1-2. Brown benefits from a five-inch edge in reach over Zaleski. It will be a fun back and forth early from these two when they seem to be the most active and the most dangerous. I favor Brown slightly in this matchup given the fact this will likely be a fight that stretches into rounds two and three. Brown is more durable than Zaleski and able to keep better pace than the 37 year old. The last appearance for Zaleski was a fight ruled majority draw after Elizeu failed to muster up any offense in the fight’s latter half. He is a live underdog here tonight but I do not expect to see him earn this victory. Randy Brown by Round Three KO
Nick: Randy Brown is extremely well-rounded with KO power and underrated BJJ ability. He’s very light on his feet, with excellent head movement and solid overall striking defense. He works well behind his jab, and he uses his length more effectively than most other fighters with his frame. Zaleski dos Santos is one of the more creative strikers in this division. He does an excellent job throwing and landing wild spinning attacks. He’s a powerful puncher, and he does a good job mixing explosive kicks into his combinations. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but he does struggle at times to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. Zaleski dos Santos can keep this close, but Brown’s range speed and overall athleticism should allow him to stay a step ahead here. This is a volatile match-up, but I’m siding with the favorite. Randy Brown by Decision

Alex Morono -260 vs Niko Price +200

Anthony: This should be a good scrap between veteran welterweights Niko Price and Alex Morono. The two have combined for 38 appearances in the UFC. Morono has realized the better success as of late, picking up some key wins in the last year. April saw Morono win against Court McGee in what was another convincing decision. Morono is great at constantly applying pressure and keeping his opponents on the defensive. He does nothing spectacular but Morono is always reliable with his striking and persistently looking to score points. The biggest knock on Morono is for late fight collapses but I do not feel Price will be there to catch him late in this bout. Price was able to stop Morono when they first met in 2017, but since then both men have changed drastically. Price has struggled to absorb punches and no longer boasts the chin he once had. Price was stopped by Robbie Lawler less than a minute into his last bout. While it would not surprise me to see Price get one over on Morono, I do not think his chin will hold up for that long. Morono should be able to find a finish here this evening. Alex Morono by Round One KO
Nick: By most accounts, this fight is must-see TV. Both of these guys like to stand and swing, they both have power and they’ve both shown time and time again that they can take a lot of damage. Morono is a well rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Morono is a coach at Fortis MMA, and he has one of the better minds for the sport at welterweight. He’s most recently coming off a hard fought decision win over Court McGee, a fight that played out closer than many expected it would. Niko Price will likely have the power advantage here, he’s fairly well-rounded but he’s found most of his UFC success trading on the feet with notable wins over Alex Oliveira, Tim Means, and Randy Brown. Ten of his fifteen professional wins have come via KO. Price is coming off back-to-back KO losses, and he’s been out of MMA action since July of 2023. In his prime, he was quick and explosive. However, there’s no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. Price will have a size and power advantage here, but his durability is a major issue and Morono is the more complete fighter of the two. While I don’t love the price, I do expect the favorite to score a finish on the feet. Alex Morono by Round Two KO

Kevin Holland -250 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a contest at middleweight between Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk. The fan favorite Holland is coming off two losses and looking to bounce back with a win here today. While Holland switches between welterweight and middleweight, he tends to perform well at 185 pounds. He is going to have a decisive speed advantage over Oleksiejczuk. The Polish fighter has exceptional power but I think he will struggle to land anything clean on Holland’s chin. Holland has seven-inches of reach on Oleksiejczuk, making this a fight that he can control whilst standing. Holland also has grappling that rates higher than that of Oleksiejczuk. Holland trains jiu jitsu with Travis Lutter and has long limbs that could result in a win by submission here today. Oleksiejczuk has succumb to a submission in all five of his losses in the promotion. Sometimes Holland makes fights closer than they need to be but this is an opponent that I fully expect him to clear. Kevin Holland by Round One Submission
Nick: Kevin Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight. Michal Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but he’s always dangerous early. His striking is far from refined technically, but he carries a lot of power and works well when he’s countering. Holland will need to be careful early here, but he should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. He’s the better striker in terms of technical ability and he should have a considerable grappling advantage if he should choose to lean on that part of his game. Kevin Holland by Round Two Submission

Sean Strickland -220 vs Paulo Costa +180

Anthony: The co-main event is a middleweight title eliminator with Paulo Costa set to face Sean Strickland. This fight will take place over the course of five rounds. Despite only winning one of his last three fights, Costa has looked exceptional lately. The Brazilian has seen his perfect record tarnished but he is much more skilled than the raw athlete we saw several years back. His kickboxing has really come a long way with Costa finding cleaner entries and expending his energy much better than before. Strickland will want to keep Costa at distance here and stuck facing the end of his punches. Strickland’s jab is exceptional and as Costa looks to move in and hurt him, Strickland will surely find a home for that weapon. While Strickland is unlikely to find a finish here I expect him to work Costa rather convincingly. This fight is similar to Strickland’s last appearance when he lost his belt against Dricus Du Plessis. I expect to see Strickland more aggressively looking to score here to right that wrong. He may not hurt Costa, but look for Sean to easily double up his total strikes landed. Sean Strickland by Decision
Nick: Strickland, a former Middleweight Champion, has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. Paulo Costa is a volume striker with plenty of power for a middleweight. He’s extremely aggressive and can eat shots to throw them, as we see in most of his wins. He’s coming off a hard fought loss via decision to a tough out in Robert Whittaker. In spite of the loss, he gave a solid showing of himself in that fight after being out of action for more than a year. I expect Strickland to work well behind his jab here, strike out of both stances as he keeps Costa mostly on his back foot. As long as he doesn’t get caught early, he should stay a step ahead of Costa no matter where this one goes. Costa is a potent finisher, but Strickland’s defensive strengths should present a brutal match-up for him stylistically. Additionally, Strickland should have a major cardio advantage. With this being a fiver round fight, I’ll comfortably back the favorite. Sean Strickland by Round Five KO

Islam Makhachev -600 vs Dustin Poirier +425

Anthony: The main event will decide lightweight gold as Islam Makhachev looks to defend his belt against Dustin Poirier. It is very hard to argue that any fighter on the planet is top pound-for-pound apart from Islam. We last saw Makhachev beat Alex Volkanovski by first round knockout last fall. That headkick helped further illustrate Makhachev’s dominance as a striker while everyone is already aware of his grappling skills. Makhachev can give Poirier a lot of problems while striking, boasting dangerous weapons out of the southpaw stance. I would expect a kick heavy approach from Makhachev here as he looks to prevent Poirier from landing much at boxing range. This stance will also allow Makhachev easy access to the single leg takedown. Poirier has had problems in the past with grappler, most evident in his matchup with Khabib Nurmagomedov. Tonight we will see Khabib shouting instructions from the corner and likely urging Makhachev to grapple just as he did five years ago. I believe that Poirier will drop to 0-3 here in his quest for undisputed gold. The future Hall of Famer has very few outs in this fight, perhaps only relying upon a miracle knockout. Poirier would be silly to pull for any guillotines here against this caliber a wrestler. Makhachev will end up slicing through Poirier’s defenses as soon as the bout hits the mat. The finish will come by armbar or perhaps rear naked choke. And Still. Islam Makhachev by Round Two Submission
Nick: Dustin Poirier is a crisp boxer with an excellent understanding of angles. He throws fast combinations and he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as a fight wears into the middle and later rounds. He has notable wins over Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor, Dan Hooker, and Max Holloway, but he’s been discussing retirement in the build-up for this fight. Islam Makhachev is the current UFC Lightweight Champion, and one of the most talented fighters on the roster. He is a decorated grappler as a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He pushes a serious pace and has enough wrestling ability to take almost anyone in this division down repeatedly. Makhachev has underrated striking, knockout power and clear draw for the promotion. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he can be highly effective when he does throw. He averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. His greatest strength is most certainly his grappling ability and he’ll look to lean on that part of his game here against a dangerous striker in Poirier. Poirier is the better technical striker on the feet, but the fear of Makhachev taking him down should keep things relatively close when the fight is standing. We have seen Poirier taken down by wrestlers nowhere near the ability of Makhachev in the past, so I have trouble expecting him to keep this fight standing. The line feels wide here just knowing how skilled Poirier is, but Makhachev is very clearly the pick. And Still. Islam Makhachev by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC,com