2024 NFL Draft Evaluations - NFC & AFC East

2024 NFL Draft Evaluations – NFC & AFC East

After taking a look at the Northern Divisions, we follow our compasses as we now head out East. Both of these divisions are in a state of flux. Either one could be sending a team to this year’s Super Bowl, or see each of these teams become unmitigated disasters.

Let’s take a look at who gave themselves the best chance to improve through the draft.

AFC East

Once ruled by Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the New England Patriots, the AFC East is now looking for someone to step up and take control of the division. The Patriots are starting a full scale rebuild, and will be unlikely to play meaningful football as the days grow colder. Nevertheless, they’ve done a decent job of building their team for the future.

The New York Jets will try again after losing their marquee 2023 free agent signing Aaron Rodgers four snaps into their season which began a cascading series of disappointing quarterback play that sank their playoff hopes. The Bills, who are often looked at as perennial contenders, are seemingly entering a reset year as they were forced to move on from multiple veteran contracts. In Miami, Mike McDaniel looks to continue to develop one of the most exciting offences in football. But they’ve also lost several good pieces this season and need to prove this season that they can show up against tough competition after failing to do so in 2023.

Buffalo Bills

  • 2 (33): WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
  • 2 (60): S Cole Bishop, Utah
  • 3 (95): DI DeWayne Carter, Duke
  • 4 (128): RB Ray Davis, Kentucky
  • 5 (141): C Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
  • 5 (160): LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington
  • 5 (168): ED Javon Solomon, Troy
  • 6 (204): T Tylan Grable, UCF
  • 6 (219): CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State
  • 7 (221): G Travis Clayton, International Pathway Program

The Bills lost multiple starters and captains this offseason as they were forced to reset their cap situation. With Josh Allen at quarterback they have a shot to win every game, but there’s no doubt they’ve taken a major step back in talent this offseason. 

Losing Gabe Davis to free agency is more than manageable after multiple inconsistent seasons, but opting to trade Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans turned what was once a position of strength into a deficit. The Bills were projected to use their first round pick on a receiver in this deep class, but clearly no one that they valued highly enough fell to them as they opted to move down twice in the first round, giving the Kansas City Chiefs a chance to draft Xavier Worthy, and letting the Carolina Panthers sneak into the first round to take Xavier Legette.

Buffalo opted to select Keon Coleman to kick off the second round. Coleman is a solid prospect, but questioning the fit in Buffalo with what they already have at receiver is completely justifiable. Curtis Samuel, a veteran free agent signing, does his best work as a vertical slot receiver. And while there are thoughts that Khalil Shakir can work on the outside, he’s yet to prove that he can do that in the NFL after working mostly on the inside in 2023. Coleman has the size to be an X receiver, but many draft experts that I respect see him as more of an inside playmaker that will make the tough contested catches. With both Shakir and Samuel already slotted to work inside, plus the projected breakout of second year tight end Dalton Kincaid, the Bills offence inside the hash marks starts to look congested. Keeping an eye on training camp to see how Buffalo opts to deploy their new set of pass catchers will be imperative before we can prognosticate what this unit will look like this season. Coleman definitely landed in one of the best spots available for any receiver in this class as he has a clear path to become the WR1 with the ability to become a red zone threat. But we’ll have to wait to see how this pick plays out. 

Buffalo ended up selecting ten players in the draft thanks to their willingness to trade down, but it’s hard to pick out any true impact players. Second round selection Cole Bishop is a chaotic safety who’s often out of position, so he will struggle to be an impact player in year one. DeWayne Carter out of Duke can earn some snaps in year one but will likely be a rotational lineman at best. Running Back Ray Davis can be the thunder to James Cook’s lighting in the backfield and will take care of those tough yards, but Josh Allen likes to take care of many of those himself so he’ will ‘s unlikely to make much of an impact either. Their fifth round pick Sedrick Van Pran might be the Bills’ best selection out of their entire draft as he has a legitimate chance to compete for the starting job in year one. 

The Bills dug themselves into a tough hole with the salary cap and really needed to get some high impact starters in the draft this year to truly be back in the conversation as contenders. I just think they played it too safe and whiffed on many of their opportunities.

Miami Dolphins

  • 1 (21): EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
  • 2 (55): T Patrick Paul, Houston
  • 4 (120): RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
  • 5 (158): EDGE Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State
  • 6 (184): WR Malik Washington, Virginia
  • 6 (198): S Patrick McMorris, California
  • 7 (241): WR Tahj Washington, USC

Thanks to sharing a division with the Bills, the Dolphins’ losses this offseason went almost unnoticed. But they too were victims of a salary cap crunch and needed to turn to the draft to fill some key starting positions. 

In true Mike McDaniel fashion, the Dolphins went after explosive speed and players with elite athleticism. First round pick Chop Robinson is a twitchy edge rusher that might just have the best first step in the class, but he needs to develop additional moves and hasn’t shown much in the defensive run game. Prior to the draft I saw him ranked as high as a top fifteen pick, and as low as a mid to late second rounder, so there’s definitely a lot left to learn about his play at the NFL level. While many are seeing Robinson as a reach, I really like that they doubled down on the position with their fifth round selection of Mohamed Kamara. Kamara is another incredibly explosive edge rusher who’s unlikely to become a 70% snap guy but can be rotated in on the defensive line to get after the quarterback when the opposing offensive lineman are wearing down. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Miami drafted some potential future insurance for Terron Armstead. It’s well documented how essential Armstead is to the success of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, so getting ahead of the eventual retirement of their oft injured 33 year old left tackle with the selection of Patrick Paul makes sense. Paul is a bit of a project, but he has terrific length and movement. If he can sit for a year and develop this could be a great pick for the future. 

Probably the most predictable aspect of Miami’s draft is that they would continue to target speed. Selecting running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round gives them another track star in the backfield if anything were to happen to 32 year old Raheem Mostert. Wright ran a 4.38 40 at the combine and was the second most athletic running back in the draft. Wide receiver Malik Washington isn’t quite as explosive, but is on of the pound for pound toughest receivers list and gives Miami a perfect complementary slot receiver to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside. 

Miami’s draft isn’t getting very high grades. But honestly, you have to respect a team that knows what they want to do and is willing to take shots on their type of players. There was an opportunity for them to leap over the Bills for this season and win the division, so you can criticize their decision to take multiple players who are more developmental projects, but I cannot fault them for wanting to slowly build up and remake this roster.

New York Jets

  • 1 (11): T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
  • 3 (65): WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
  • 4 (134): RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
  • 5 (171): QB Jordan Travis, Florida State
  • 5 (173): RB Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State
  • 5 (176): CB Qwan’tez Stiggers, CFL
  • 7 (257): S Jaylen Key, Alabama

The Jets kicked off their draft by doing to right thing. Despite rumours that they could be the landing spot for Brock Bowers, their offensive line is still volatile and selecting one of my favourite offensive lineman in Fashanu 10th overall gives them security for when their veteran duo of Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith miss time with injury.  They were also able to snag a couple of 2025 picks by moving down one spot with the Vikings, so round one was a big win for gang green. 

I’m not overly sold on the rest of their draft, however. Malachi Corley is an interesting prospect, but he’s more of a running back that happens to play wide receiver. He struggles with his route running and doesn’t project to be a good downfield pass catcher. He has very good run after the catch skills, but he struggles with any type of physical coverage and can be negated by defences fairly easily. I’m also having a hard time understanding selecting two running backs on day three who are decent rotational options. Breece Hall exploded in the second half of last season when the Jets finally made him the focus of the offence, despite the horrid play from their offensive line. It’s fine to snag a change of pace back, but using two of your seven selections when you already have star at the position is questionable. 

I like the late flier on quarterback Jordan Travis. He suffered a broken leg in November which probably took him off many teams radars, but he has some skills and is a good development project to learn behind Aaron Rodgers as he finishes off his hall of fame career.

New England Patriots

  • 1 (3): QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
  • 2 (37): WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
  • 3 (68): OT Caedan Wallace, Penn State
  • 4 (103): G Layden Robinson, Texas A&M
  • 4 (110): WR Javon Baker, UCF
  • 6 (180): CB Marcellas Dial, South Carolina
  • 6 (193): QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee
  • 7 (231): TE Jaheim Bell, Florida State

The New England Patriots have had a regime change for the first time in what seems like eons, and they’re getting it started on the right foot.

Drake Maye was the correct choice with the number three pick, and the team spent the rest of the draft trying to support him as best as they could. While Maye will likely benefit most by sitting for at least half of his rookie season before taking over the offence, the Patriots preemptively insulated him by signing Jacoby Brissett in free agency, giving them a reliable veteran to help ease Maye into the league.

The Patriots wide receiver room was a mess full of solid but not spectacular WR2 and WR3’s. But they managed to beef up the room with the additions of Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Polk and Baker are two completely different receivers. Polk is a savvy route runner with great hands who can work well inside, while Baker is a twitchy route runner who can create vertical separation, which gives the Pats some flexibility and scheme fits that their offence was clearly missing in 2023.

The offensive line for New England was ugly in 2023, so snagging tackle Caedan Wallace in the third round was a solid choice after Wallace allowed just 13 total pressures from 359 pass-blocking snaps in 2023. Layden Robinson is another pass blocking specialist, allowing only six sacks across his 1,206 snap college career, including just one in 2023. 

The Patriots defence was largely already set. They played extremely well in 2023 despite a myriad of injuries, but their offence needed as much help as any team in the league. While it might not play out for this coming season, the Patriots have set themselves up for a solid future.

NFC East

In a division that seems to go through cycles of being dubbed the NFC Beast or the NFC Least it’s hard to predict what to expect from these four teams in 2024. The Giants and the Commanders on paper look to be ready to compete for another high draft pick. Despite winning the division in 2023 the Cowboys were hamstrung in free agency and were unable to replace some important pieces on their team as they try and factor in the pending salary cap implications of Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons extensions. Meanwhile the Eagles made some major coaching moves with both their offensive and defensive coordinators after starting the season 10-1 before the team fell apart finishing with an 11-6 record and a disappointing first round playoff exit. 

Dallas Cowboys

  • 1 (29): T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
  • 2 (56): EDGE Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
  • 3 (73): Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
  • 3 (87): LB Marist Liufau, Notre Dame
  • 5 (174): CB Caelen Carson, Wake Forest
  • 6 (216): WR Ryan Flournoy, Southeast Missouri State
  • 7 (233): T Nathan Thomas, Louisiana
  • 7 (244): DI Justin Rogers, Auburn

The Cowboys have plenty of questions to answer this summer as the three biggest names on the team are either set to play in the final season of their current contracts or are eligible for extensions. But that didn’t seem to phase the Cowboys draft process as they went with a solid meat and potatoes meal that will likely pay dividends for the team going forward.

After day one of the draft, Jerry Jones let everyone who would listen know that the team was targeting running back Jonathon Brooks with their second round pick despite his son’s obvious attempts to try and keep Jerry from sharing the organization’s draft board. But that wasn’t to be as the Panthers scooped up the promising young back before the Cowboys could make their selection. Despite that, the Cowboys are entering the 2024 season with a rebuilt offensive line and some really promising prospects.

Tackle Tyler Guyton, who is a former defensive lineman, is a bit of a project at tackle but has shown impressive upside during his time at Oklahoma. He’s highly athletic and moves extremely well despite being extremely raw at the position. With the Cowboys track record of drafting and developing offensive lineman, Guyton is a stellar pick at the end of round one and could end up being an essential bookend for the team for years to come, even though there will be some growing pains along the way.

Cooper Beebee was drafted earlier than most experts expected, but he’s a violent, physical interior offensive lineman who can move people with ease in the run game. He’s more likely than Guyton to be able to step in on day one as a starter despite the lower draft capital. Despite not playing centre in college, he worked at the position in the pre-draft process to prove that he’s capable. 

On defence, the Cowboys tried to replace some depth they lost in free agency with Kneeland, an overly aggressive run defender who could compliment Parsons quite well. Kneeland is explosive, long, has great size and fits the mold of linebacker that the Cowboys covet. 

Dallas looks to have grabbed three future starters at what their organization deems to be fairly important positions. They may have missed out on Jerry’s desired running back, but in a couple years the top of this draft will be playing major snaps for the team.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • 1 (22): CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
  • 2 (40): CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
  • 3 (94): EDGE Jalyx Hunt, Houston Christian
  • 4 (127): RB Will Shipley, Clemson
  • 5 (152): WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
  • 5 (155): LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
  • 5 (172): G Trevor Keegan, Michigan
  • 6 (185): WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State
  • 6 (190): C Dylan McMahon, NC State

The Philadelphia Eagles defence absolutely fell apart in the second half of 2023, led by their backfield’s inability to cover or make a tackle. They addressed that more aggressively than anyone could have anticipated, first through free agency (bringing back C.J. Gardner-Johnson on a big deal) and then using their first two picks on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean.

Despite coming from a small school in Toledo, Mitchell was considered the top cornerback prospect in the draft alongside Terrion Arnold. It was no secret that the Eagles were targeting a cornerback early in the draft. Despite rumours that GM Howie Roseman was willing to move up as far as just outside the top ten, Philadelphia was able to stand pat and select Mitchell as the first corner off the board with the 22nd overall pick. Mitchell is a better fit in new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s zone-heavy scheme than Arnold, although both players will be excellent NFL defenders.

After not allowing a single touchdown in 2023 and dominating the senior bowl, the Eagles must have been thrilled to take Mitchell with their 22nd overall pick. Cooper Dejean fell much further than anticipated in the draft as pundits started making a case that he would benefit from a move from cornerback to safety in the pros (a less valued position in the NFL). But that didn’t stop the Eagles from trading up in the second round to add Dejean to their backfield. Dejean will be a versatile chess piece for Fangio to use this coming season, and there wouldn’t have been many complaints if he was who the Eagles selected in the first round.

For the rest of the draft, GM Howie Roseman worked the phones and made a shocking nine total draft day trades, manipulating his way up and down the draft. Third round pick Jalyx Hunt is another small school player that has high level athleticism, explosiveness and power that many edge rushers in this class lack, but will be a bit of a project. His call with Roseman after getting drafted has already made him an Eagles legend.

The rest of the draft for the Eagles was fine, if not spectacular. Drafting former Eagle legend Jeremiah Trotter’s son is one of the best feel good stories from the draft. They added a solid if unspectacular running back to the rotation behind Saquon Barkley in Will Shipley in the fourth round. Philly also took a couple fliers to finally secure a WR3 by taking two receivers with the most opposing profiles possible.  Aniais Smith is a small speedster who will probably make the team as a punt returner, while Johnny Wilson is a massive prospect for the position at 6’7” and 231 lbs, who apparently has no intentions of moving into a tight end role.

Overall, the Eagles are being tagged as major winners mainly due to their first two picks, but the rest of the draft honestly leaves a lot to be desired.

New York Giants

  • 1 (6): WR Malik Nabers, LSU
  • 2 (47): S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
  • 3 (70): CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky
  • 4 (107): TE Theo Johnson, Penn State
  • 5 (166): RB Tyrone Tracy, Purdue
  • 6 (183): LB Darius Muasau, UCLA

The New York Giants reportedly tried to trade up to the number three spot with the Patriots to select Drake Maye, but balked at the asking price and opted to pass on any of the remaining quarterbacks with their sixth overall pick. Malik Nabers is an excellent consolation prize, as the explosive receiver will line up all over the field and immediately become a focal point for the offence. Nabers will immediately inject some explosiveness to an offence that desperately needs it and brings potential the organization hasn’t seen since they drafted Odell Beckham Jr.

After losing stud safety Xavier Mckinney in free agency, the Giants used their second round pick on Tyler Nubin, a versatile and impactful safety prospect that’s amongst the best in the class. Nubin has an incredibly high football IQ, can cover the back end and will step up and make an impact on run defence. Pairing him with their third round pick, cornerback Andru Phillips, gives them two potential starters from day one and will help what’s been a leaky defensive backfield. 

Working under the assumption that Darren Waller is on the verge of retirement, taking a flier on Theo Johnson makes complete sense. Johnson is extremely raw and will need time time to develop. But he’s highly athletic and extremely versatile. 

Running back Tyrone Tracy doesn’t come with a lot of draft capital as a fifth round selection, but the Giants running back room isn’t great, so he can see some significant touches in year one.

With the moves that the Giants made in free agency and the draft, they’re clearly focusing on building this team on the defensive side and could surprise some teams as soon as this season. They’ve assembled a good pass rushing corps and now have support for that on the back end. Unfortunately until they figure out their quarterback situation, their offence projects to be one of the worst in the league as they lack any impactful pieces outside of Nabers. 

Washington Commanders

  • 1 (2): QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
  • 2 (36): DI Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
  • 2 (50): CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
  • 2 (53): TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State
  • 3 (67): OT Brandon Coleman, TCU
  • 3 (100): WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice
  • 5 (139): LB Jordan Magee, Temple
  • 5 (161): S Dominique Hampton, Washington
  • 7 (222): EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Notre Dame

The Commanders have had an odd offseason. They looked to be on the verge of a full tear down and reset, especially considering they have a completely new ownership group who are entering their first full offseason in control of the team. To kick off the offseason, the new regime was ghosted by their top choice at head coach (current Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson) and settled for Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator. They then proceeded to sign a lot of aging veterans, as if their roster was on the verge of competing and just needed to plug some holes. That, unfortunately, might not be the case.

With the second overall pick, Washington took the uber mobile but undersized Jayden Daniels to be the new focal point of the offence. Daniels has a gorgeous deep ball and might be one of the best natural runners from the position that we’ve seen in a very long time, but he tends to falter in the pocket under pressure. Despite his lanky frame, he also has no regard for protecting himself from contact, which could be a major issue going forward as he faces much stronger competition. He’s a good theoretical fit for Kinsgbury’s spread-run offence, but Kingsbury had a chance with Kyler Murray in Arizona, and his offensive system was figured out pretty quickly by NFL defensive coordinators. 

Washington also has a major need at tackle, something that they didn’t attempt to address until their fifth selection in the draft, taking Brandon Coleman in round three. Coleman was really good in 2022, but is coming off of a down season in 2023 and might do well with a move to the interior of the offensive line at the NFL level. At best, he’s a project at tackle and doesn’t solve Washington’s current offensive line issue.

In a vacuum, the Commanders actually had a decent overall draft. They picked a lot of really good football players. Daniels has the potential to be an absolute star despite the risks associated with his playstyle. Second round pick Jer’Zhan Newton might be one of the steals of the draft at thirty sixth overall, as he was ranked as one of the top interior defensive lineman in this class. Their other two second rounders, CB Mike Sainristril and TE Ben Sinnot should be day one starters for this team in 2024, and Sinnot in particular has the upside to be an impact played down the road. However, if the team was looking to take a leap in 2024, they failed to fill some serious roster holes and that will hurt them this season.

-Devon Gallant

Twitter: @DevGallant

Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.