UFC Vegas 91 Analysis
Combat Sports

UFC Vegas 91 Analysis

April 27, 2024
admin

UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs Perez – 4.27.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs Perez. After a week without action, fights are back at The Apex tonight in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 103-57-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
  • Nick: 98-62-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-26-2024 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Maheshate -220 vs Gabriel Benitez +180

  • Anthony: Opening the card today are lightweights Gabriel Benitez and Maheshate. It is hard to get to the window and bet on either one of these fighters given the most recent showings out of each. While +180 on Benitez may be tempting I do not find it wise to bet on someone who’s looked as he has these past few fights. Since his Performance of the Night stopping Humberto Bandenay, Benitez is just 2-5 in the octagon. The two wins came against Jaynes and Ontiveros who are both already cut from the promotion. Moggly is simply not himself now at 35 with a lot of damage already in the rearview. Maheshate is still a young and athletic prospect that certainly seems to be improving in between his fights. I did not like his decision to kickbox against Viacheslav Borshchev but I fully support Maheshate standing and banging here today. He has the tools to put his hands on Benitez and win this fight via strikes. Maheshate by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Maheshate is only 24-years old, but he already seems to be further along in his development than most of the prospects we see coming out of China. He throws powerful strikes and seems to be a competent grappler, but he really hasn’t found much success yet at the UFC level. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to tough outs in Viacheslav Borshchev and Rafa Garcia, but it’s safe to expect we’ll see a better version of him here as he has been out of action since May of 2023. Gabriel Benitez is a pressure striker who generally does a good job controlling the center of the octagon. He throws heavy leg and body kicks, he works well behind his jab and he stays true to the Shooto Box style of rapidly moving in and out of his opponents range. He’s in the twilight of his career at 35-years old, coming off an ugly loss via submission to Jim Miller. Benitez is still dangerous, even in the twilight of his career. Still, I do see Maeshate as the rightful favorite. He’s simply the more explosive fighter in this match-up and I expect he’ll have a considerable speed advantage here. Maheshate by Round Two KO

Ivana Petrovic -500 vs Na Liang +360

  • Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s flyweight with Ivana Petrovic set to face Na Liang. It was a poor debut for Petrovic last summer who fought Luana Carolina and experienced her first ever professional loss. Petrovic failed to score effective takedowns in that fight and keep control of Carolina on the mat. She should have an easier time here corralling Liang who previously fought as low as strawweight. Na Liang is a dangerous and very aggressive fighter but that has not translated to much success in the UFC. Liang is 0-3 in the octagon with all three losses coming by finish inside of two rounds. She will threaten Petrovic with some submission attempts, but I expect her to spend most of this bout fighting off of her back. Petrovic has more powerful kicks and distance attacks than Liang, also giving her a slight edge here on the feet. She should cruise to a win here, possibly winning by stoppage. Ivana Petrovic by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Na Liang has been training at the UFC’s Performance Institute in China. She is primarily a grappler. She aggressively pursues takedowns in most of her fights as her gameplan is almost always to work her opponent to the mat for a Submission. She is 0-3 in the UFC, having been KO’d in each of her losses. Her striking defense is almost non-existent, which is likely going to cost her in this match-up. Ivana Petrovic is 6-1 professionally, coming off a hard fought loss in her UFC debut to Luana Carolina. Five of Petrovic’s six wins have come via finish. Petrovic is a well-rounded fighter, but she hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. She has decent power on the feet, she has shown solid cardio and durability, but it seems she prefers to grapple when she takes on decent strikers. The line feels wide here, but Petrovic is the rightful favorite. Her grappling is solid enough that she should be able to keep this fight standing where she should outclass Liang until she finds a KO. Ivana Petrovic by Round One KO

James Llontop -450 vs Chris Padilla +350

  • Anthony: Next should be a good scrap at lightweight between James Llontop and Chris Padilla. Originally Llontop was scheduled to face Lando Vannata here in his debut, but instead he drew into short notice replacement Chris Padilla. While Padilla is not necessarily UFC caliber, he is an active professional with three wins to his credit in 2023. Padilla has also been preparing for a May fight at Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat. He has fast hands for a lightweight but not nearly the technical boxing skills of a guy like Llontop. When it comes to the kickboxing exchanges here, Llontop will be leading the dance and certainly landing the cleaner strikes on Padilla. He is also significantly bigger than Padilla and likely to be the much more effective striker at range. I am not going to predict a bright career ahead of Llontop but he is without a doubt a solid prospect. Llontop should not struggle to handle Padilla here in his debut. James Llontop by Round Two KO
  • Nick: James Llontop will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via decision over Malik Lewis. He’s 24-years old, 14-2 professionally, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2019. Llontop is primarily a striker, with seven of his wins coming via KO. Chris Padilla will also be making his UFC debut in this match-up, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Gabe Green. Padilla is 13-6 professionally, coming off a KO win over a former UFC fighter in Justin Jaynes. Padilla is the more technically sound fighter in this match-up and he’s the more experienced fighter in this match-up. That being said, Llontop should be able to dominate this fight on the feet. He has power in all of his limbs and I expect his speed will be too much for Padilla here, especially with Padilla taking this fight on such short notice. James Llontop by Round Two KO

Ketlen Souza -360 vs Marnic Mann +270

  • Anthony: This is a strawweight fight between Ketlen Souza and Marnic Mann. Both women were unsuccessful in their UFC debuts, looking to get back into the win column in this fight today. Souza is prohibitively favored, showcasing better overall skills than Mann. We have seen Souza not only put together a more impressive resume but win her fights in more impressive fashion too. She is going to execute a grappling heavy attack here against Marnic Mann. While Mann does have some solid wrestling, I don’t think she’s strong enough to break free from Souza’s grasp. The Brazilian is a very good jiu jitsu practitioner and Mann could find herself stuck in positions that she cannot escape. I expect Souza to win by submission here unless Mann is not willing to get up and risk exposing her neck. Ketlen Souza by Decision
  • Nick: Ketlen Souza is a former Invicta FC Flyweight Champion. She is 13-4 professionally, with eight of those wins having come via KO. She is coming off a brutal loss via kneebar in her UFC debut to a tough out in Karine Silva, but many still consider her a prospect to keep an eye on. She is primarily a striker, moving down a weight class here where she should be relatively big for a strawweight. Marnic Mann is 6-2 professionally, coming off a convincing loss in her UFC debut to Josefine Knutsson. She has fought a decent level of competition regionally, but she’s generally inconsistent. She’s small for the division, and she’s not nearly as athletic as the majority of the girls on the roster. Souza is the much better and more powerful striker in this match-up. I expect the size advantage here should allow her to keep this fight standing where she should be able to cover her price as a heavy favorite. Ketlen Souza by Round Three KO

Caio Machado -120 vs Don’Tale Mayes +100

  • Anthony: This is a low-level matchup at heavyweight with Caio Machado set to face Don’Tale Mayes. I fade Mayes whenever I am given the opportunity, frustrated backing a guy with minimal weapons and no sense of urgency. Mayes has good length for a heavyweight but does not fight with much composure behind his jab. Machado has the more technical boxing skills and likely a speed advantage over Mayes. Machado seems dialed in here for his second octagon appearance. He has spent a majority of this camp grappling with heavyweight Karl Williams. While Mayes can generally hold his own in the clinch I expect Machado to really challenge him there. It will likely be a grueling first two rounds with Mayes trying to fend off Machado’s forward movement and takedown attempts. I have confidence in Machado’s ground game earning him this win over Don’Tale Mayes. He is going to be the more active fighter and score with the judges much more consistently. Caio Machado by Decision
  • Nick: Caio Machado is decent everywhere, but far from technically refined. Generally speaking, he lacks power as a heavyweight. He is 8-2-1 professionally, coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Mick Parkin. At 29-years old he’s still young for the division, so it’s safe to expect he’ll make considerable improvements from fight to fight. Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, but there is no denying the fact he’s been dramatically inconsistent at the UFC level. There is always volatility in low level heavyweight fights and I really don’t like backing either of the fighters in this match-up. I’ll take a stab on Mayes as the underdog here, simply because he’s more experienced and priced as an underdog. Don’Tale Mayes by Decision

Michal Figlak -180 vs Austin Hubbard +150

  • Anthony: This will be a good bout at lightweight with Austin Hubbard taking on Michal Figlak. I am a bit surprised to see Figlak favored here after losing in his UFC debut. Fares Ziam is not someone I rate very highly and yet he easily dispatched of Figlak, completely nullifying his gameplan. I will be interested to see how aggressively Figlak searches for takedowns today given Hubbard’s solid offensive wrestling. He should be comfortable at least attempting to grapple Hubbard and looking for submissions of his own. Hubbard is the more steady and well-rounded fighter while Figlak is more likely to find himself a finish. He has better striking than Hubbard and certainly more pop in his hands. Nonetheless, I refuse to bet Figlak here laying -180. Hubbard has excellent cardio and the skillset to match Figlak no matter what style of fight we see. This one will probably go a full three rounds. Austin Hubbard by Decision
  • Nick: Michal Figlak has a solid grappling base and he does well keeping pressure on his opponents. He’s a technically sound striker with decent countering ability and excellent bodywork when he can extend his combinations. He is 8-1 professionally with his only loss coming in his most recent fight, his UFC debut back in September of 2022. The long layoff is certainly cause for some concern here, but it’s also expected he’s made major improvements since the last time we saw him in the cage. Austin Hubbard is big for the division. He’s mostly well-rounded, but offensively he doesn’t have any singular standout skill. He has excellent cardio, which isn’t really a surprise as he trains in Colorado with Elevation Fight Team. He was cut from the promotion following a decision loss to Vinc Pichel in 2021, but he returns to the roster here off a loss to Kurt Holobaugh via submission in finals of The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Tournament back at UFC 292. Figlak is likely the sharper striker here, and the better submission grappler. Hubbard will have a cardio advantage, but over fifteen minutes I expect he’ll take the majority of the damage in this matchup. Michal Figlak by Decision

Victor Henry -450 vs Rani Yahya +350

  • Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at bantamweight between Rani Yahya and Victor Henry. Oftentimes Yahya fights are decided by his ability to secure takedowns and showcase his offensive jiu jitsu. Yahya is a 5th degree black belt with 21 professional wins coming by way of submission. While his grappling is certainly lethal, Yahya has started to show signs of slowing down now competing at the age of 39. He looked meek in his last appearance losing to Montel Jackson by first round knockout. Henry is not a very high-level fighter but he certainly has the tools to put a beating on Yahya. Henry averages more than eight significant strike lands per minute, accurately connecting on opponents with his hands. He is effective at engaging inside of the pocket and landing combinations from both stances. Henry has also showcased good defensive grappling already inside of the octagon. Through four appearances, opponents have landed just 7 of their 33 takedown attempts. He should win this fight convincingly. Victor Henry by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Victor Henry finds most of his success pressuring his opponents and wearing them down with volume. He got his UFC contract late in his career, but he has found a lot of success in respectable Japanese promotions via RIZIN and Pancrase. He’s a talented catch/counter-wrestler, training under Josh Barnett. He prefers to stand and trade, but he’s excellent in scrambles and does a good job using the momentum of his opponent to find opportunistic positions offensively. Rani Yahya is a jiu jitsu specialist with twenty-one of his twenty-eight professional wins coming by way of submission. He has excellent offensive grappling, but can struggle against opponents with good or even decent takedown defense. The key to this matchup will be whether or not Yahya can take this fight to the mat. If Yahya can’t catch Henry in something early, his cardio and general durability are likely to cost him as the fight wears on. The line is far too wide here considering how dangerous Yahya is on the mat, but I do expect Henry to stay safe until he can take over late. Victor Henry by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Uros Medic -300 vs Tim Means +250

  • Anthony: The main card begins with this fight at welterweight between TIm Means and Uros Medic. I think that Medic is the rightful favorite here but I am shocked seeing him close at -300. He is coming off a submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai last November. Through five octagon appearances, Medic has showcased great striking skills and yet very poor grappling. A savvy veteran like Tim Means could potentially extend this fight with Medic and take over in the bout’s latter half. Means is not as quick or effective now fighting at the age of 40 but he is still able to win against guys on this level. Means is an opportunistic grappler and one that could really give Medic problems on the mat. I think clinch strikes and a few takedowns could end up securing him this victory. I’ll take my chances betting Means here getting such a good price to do so. Tim Means by Decision
  • Nick: Uros Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition, but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. He’s likely capable of taking Medic down here, but I’m not confident he’ll try as Means is getting up there in age and he’s very conscious of his fading cardio. The line feels wide here as Means is the better technical fighter with the better resume by a long shot. Still, these are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. Uros Medic by Round Two KO

Jonathan Pearce -150 vs David Onama +125

  • Anthony: This is a bout at featherweight between David Onama and Jonathan Pearce. Onama failed to make weight on Friday coming in two pounds over. I consider this fight very difficult to predict although the gameplan for Pearce seems rather clear. Pearce has exceptional offensive wrestling and certainly the edge over Onama in terms of his grappling offense. Pearce dominated his last fight against Joanderson Brito, accruing more than six minutes of control time before getting caught in a guillotine choke. Pearce averages 1.76 takedowns landed per round and converts on more than half of his attempted shots. It is also worth mentioning that Onama has just 45 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Onama can win exchanges on the feet against Peace but will struggle when these two get into the clinch. He is not conditioned well enough to grapple a hard three rounds with JSP. I consider Onama a very live underdog but Pearce will beat him convincingly if he executes his gameplan. He will avoid eating any big shots from Onama and will get in on his legs quickly. Jonathan Pearce by Decision
  • Nick: Jonathan Pearce fights at a torrid pace and throws a lot of volume as a striker. He doesn’t carry much power in his individual shots, but he can hurt his opponents and put them away with consistent pressure and volume. He has a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ, and he does an excellent job finding top position out of scrambles. He does a good job grinding opponents up against the cage and he’s one of the more underrated grapplers in the world at featherweight. David Onama is a dangerous striker with explosive combinations and excellent footwork. He does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow his opponents down, he works well at range and he’s shown continued improvements in his grappling abilities as well. He is mostly recently coming off an impressive KO win over Gabriel Santos, but he has been out of action since June of 2023. He missed weight for this match-up, but it didn’t appear his weight cut was all that difficult. This is a tough fight to call as Pearce is the better grappler and Onama is the better striker. A low confidence play, but I do see Pearce as the favorite. Jonathan Pearce by Decision

Jhonata Diniz -350 vs Austen Lane +250

  • Anthony: Next is a heavyweight fight between Austen Lane and Jhonata Diniz. This is one of the lower level matchups that does not warrant much expert handicapping. Diniz is far more skilled than Austen Lane, making this an easy selection if these two are to engage on the feet. The Brazilian has a rather impressive resume in kickboxing, fighting previously in Glory. He is faster than Lane and much more technically skilled. Lane is often looking to pressure his opponents and engage early on the feet. His length may prove to be a bit problematic for Diniz but I think it will be easy to close the distance if Lane is the one moving forward on him. I’ll advise against betting Diniz now at -350 but that is simply due to the volatility of a fight like this. It seems like Lane could fluke his way into a win before the promotion drops him. Jhonata Diniz by Round One KO
  • Nick: Jhonata Diniz will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win over Eduardo Neves in the Contender Series. He is 6-0 professionally, with all of his wins coming via KO. At 32-years old Diaz is getting a relatively late start to his MMA career, but he already has an extensive professional kickboxing background fighting for the likes of Glory and WGP Kickboxing. Austen Lane is athletic for the division as a former NFL defensive lineman. He throws powerful strikes, he has decent offensively grappling ability, but his skills are still rough around the edges as he’s starting his MMA career on the back half of his athletic prime. Lane will have a chance here if he can mix in some grappling and extend this fight into the later rounds. That being said, I’m not confident he’ll try that here as he has never recorded a takedown in the UFC. This is a volatile match-up, but Diniz is the rightful favorite as the more technically advanced striker in this matchup. Jhonata Diniz by Round Two KO

Karine Silva -160 vs Ariane Lipski +135

  • Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s flyweight matchup between Karine Silva and Ariane Lipski. Last year was extremely productive for Lipski who went 3-0 inside of the octagon. Silva also had a strong 2023 but not facing nearly the same quality of competition. Lipski and Silva are both 30 but it seems like Silva is still growing and improving more from fight to fight. Her offensive jiu jitsu may prove to be a challenge for even a sophisticated grappler like Lipski. The Queen of Violence would ideally keep this fight against Silva on the feet. Lipski is a very effective striker in the clinch and more willing to take risks on the feet compared to Silva. While Silva can also put her hands on Lipski, her striking is more used as a means to an end. I am hopeful that Silva can engage Lipski here grappling and force her to fight with a focus on defense. Silva is a good play in my opinion given the lack of quality betting opportunities on this card. Karine Silva by Decision
  • Nick: Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is 3-0 under the UFC banner and 17-4 professionally. He BJJ is more advanced than many ranked fighters in the division. She is on a seven fight win streak with all of those wins coming via finish. Ariane Lipski is athletic and occasionally she looks like a top level talent, but she has been mostly inconsistent for the extent of her UFC tenure. She’s decent everywhere, but she doesn’t really merge her grappling and striking well. She telegraphs many of her strikes, and she can only find success on the mat if she lucks into a favorable position. Lipski will have the better cardio and she’s the more technically advanced striker in this match-up, but there is no denying Silva will have a considerable advantage if this fight hits the mat. Another tough fight to call, but I’ll back the superior grappler here to find an early finish. Karine Silva by Round Two Submission

Ryan Spann -180 vs Bogdan Guskov +150

  • Anthony: The co-main event comes at light heavyweight with Ryan Spann set to face off with Bogdan Guskov. This figures to be a step up in competition for Guskov who is a 15-3 professional. His resume is full of lackluster wins and a loss in his debut fight against Volkan Oezdemir. If he is able to get one over on Spann it would easily be Guskov’s best win. There is nothing too special about the Russian but he carries some scary power in his hands. I expect Guskov to engage quickly in this fight and look to land on Spann from both sides. It is always a headache trying to predict a volatile fighter such as Spann. I would not recommend betting on Superman here as a moderate favorite, but he has all the tools to beat a guy like Guskov. Spann is the much more proficient grappler and capable of finishing fights via choke. He will only look like a -200 favorite if he can control Guskov on the mat or against the fence here. This fight should be lined closer to a pick ’em if these two do intend to stand and trade. Ryan Spann by Round One Submission 
  • Nick: Ryan Spann carries a lot of power and sneaky submission ability, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. His cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights, and his Fight IQ is questionable at best. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to a tough out in Anthony Smith, but when he’s at his best he is dangerous enough everywhere to finish fights quickly and violently. Bogdan Guskov is 15-3 professionally, with thirteen of those fifteen wins coming via KO. As impressive as his finishing ability has been on the regional scene, he has only found marginal success against top level competition. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a KO win over Zac Pauga. It seems he has decent BJJ, but there is no denying he looks to keep most fights on the feet. These are two heavy hitters so there is volatility in this match-up. Still, Spann has to be the favorite as he’s been more proven against a higher level of opponent. Ryan Spann by Round One Submission

Matheus Nicolau -180 vs Alex Perez +150

  • Anthony: The main event should be a fun one at flyweight as Matheus Nicolau will face off against Alex Perez. At this stage of his career, it appears that Perez has been delegated to the role of a gatekeeper. The former title challenger faced Muhammad Mokaev this spring, competing for the first time in two years. Perez was a bit rusty in that bout but defended takedowns well and appeared in good physical shape. While Perez is confident in his grappling he also has five professional losses via submission. Nicolau has the advantage of grappling over Perez while striking exchanges will be rather even. Perez lands the much more fluid strikes and appears to connect with more damage than Nicolau. His kicks are better, but his defense and overall boxing is not quite on the same level. Nicolau has refined his hands a lot under the direction of head coach Andre Pederneiras. He is expected to bounce back from his last loss and get the win here against Perez. I think Nicolau drops an early round before completely overtaking Perez. Almost no action has come in on this main event with odds remaining static all week long. Matheus Nicolau by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: Matheus Nicolau is an underrated striker. He does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents. He’s a decent grappler as well, especially defensively. The biggest knock on him is that he sometimes waits for fights to come to him. He’s coming off his first loss since 2018, via KO to Brandon Royval. Still, there is no denying he’s still a dangerous contender at flyweight. At his best, Alex Perez has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and fights at an excellent pace. Additionally, his calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone in this division. He’s a solid grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. He also does a good job staying out of trouble and finding favorable positions in the scramble. The line feels a bit wide here as Nicolau is coming off a KO loss, still I do see him as the rightful favorite. He’s the more athletic fighter in this match-up and he had a full camp to go five rounds. This is going to be a tough mountain for Perez to climb as an underdog on short notice. Matheus Nicolau by Round Four Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com