UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs Curtis II – 4.6.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs Curtis 2. Fights are back tonight in Las Vegas with a solid slate of bouts on deck. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 86-49-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 84-51-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-5-2024 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 3:00pm EST
Melissa Dixon -350 vs Nora Cornolle +275
- Anthony: Today’s event begins with a fight between Melissa Dixon and Nora Cornolle. Both athletes did miss weight yesterday, heavier than the bantamweight limit. Dixon won her UFC debut after an impressive prior stint in Ares FC. The bout saw her survive an early knockdown to grind out Irina Alkseeva for a unanimous decision win. She is too heavy a favorite in this spot but likely to get the nod here facing Cornolle. While Cornolle has the skills standing to hurt Dixon, more quality strikes will be coming the way of Melissa. It will be a challenge for Cornolle to stop that forward pressure and limit the offensive output from Dixon. Dixon is the better striker in combination and benefits from an edge in reach over her opponent today. Cornolle will need to find a lucky knockout to win this one. Melissa Dixon by Decision
- Nick: Melissa Dixon is coming off a win in her UFC debut, via decision over Irina Alekseeva. She is 6-0 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO. As impressive as her record is, Dixon hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Additionally, at 32-years old it does seem she’s getting a late start to her professional career. She is primarily a grappler, who is also a decent striker at range. She has a solid understanding of footwork and underrated offensive BJJ. Her takedown entries aren’t great, but she is capable of dominating if she can find herself on top of her opponent. Nora Cornolle is coming off an impressive win in her UFC debut via decision over Joselyne Edwards. She is 7-1 professionally, having spent most of her professional career fighting for UAE Warriors. Cornolle is primarily a striker who has surprising power for her frame. She fights out of a Muay Thai style stance, and generally does a decent job putting together high volume combinations. The line feels wide here, but Dixon is the rightful favorite. She may struggle to find takedowns early, but once she grounds Cornolle I expect she can dominate this fight on the mat.. Melissa Dixon by Round Two Submission
Dylan Budka -150 vs Cesar Almeida +125
- Anthony: This is a middleweight fight with Cesar Almeida set to face Dylan Budka. These are two athletes that would likely not be on the roster if not for earning wins on Dana White’s Contender Series. While Almeida is a seasoned kickboxer, he is not an experienced cage fighter. His takedown defense is okay but against a persistent wrestler like Budka I see him struggling to keep the feet. Budka is very one dimensional but his grappling heavy style should work in this particular matchup. Almeida is the much more technical striker and a threat to finish this fight with his kickboxing. If Budka can close the distance and clinch with Almeida he has a clear path to victory. I expect him to push a pace that Almeida is unable to keep, boasting much better cardio at the age of 24. It will likely become a rather boring fight should Budka be victorious. Dylan Budka by Decision
- Nick: Dylan Budka will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win by decision over Chad Hanekom. He is 7-2 professionally and just 24-years old. Two of his wins have come via KO and one via submission. He fights out of a small gym via Demolition Fighting in Ohio. Budka is primarily a wrestler. He’s strong for the division, but somewhat slow and plodding when he strikes. Cesar Almeida will also be making his UFC debut in this match-up, coming off his own Contender Series win via decision over Lucas Fernando. Almeida is primarily a striker. He’s only 4-0 professionally in MMA, but he has an extensive resume in kickboxing that includes a win over current light heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira. Almeida has solid cardio and durability, and he can put power in his strikes even when he’s moving backwards. Like many kickboxers, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. However, he continues to show considerable improvement in that area of his game. In many ways, this is a linear match-up. If Almeida can keep this fight standing he should mostly dominate at range. On the other hand, if Budka can get his wrestling going it’s going to be difficult for Almeida to get any offense going. This is a low confidence play, but I do prefer the Budka side here. He should be durable enough to find the takedowns he needs here. I also like that he’s twelve years younger than Almeida. Dylan Budka by Decision
Jean Matsumoto -160 vs Dan Argueta +130
- Anthony: I am excited for this matchup at bantamweight between Dan Argueta and Jean Matsumoto. The undefeated Matsumoto could make some noise in the UFC and be able to extend his perfect streak further. He is just 24 years old with crisp muay thai and a very quick trigger. Argueta can likely hold his own in exchanges with Matsumoto while the Brazilian will certainly be landing the cleaner and more frequent shots. Argueta’s advantage here comes through his wrestling where he finds success in most of his fights. Miles Johns stopped Argueta’s pursuit in his last appearance but that loss was overturned to a no contest after Johns tested positive for elevated levels of Turinabol. Prior to that Argueta put on a wrestling clinic versus Ronnie Lawrence. Argeuta should execute takedowns with more success here and accrue significant time in control of Mastumoto. The Brazilian is a bit too comfortable fighting in his guard. I think while Matsumoto is understandably favored, Argueta presents a difficult stylistic test for him to debut against. Argueta is one underdog that I will be betting on. Dan Argueta by Decision
- Nick: Daniel Argueta is primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base. Four of his nine professional wins have come via submission. He’s a decent striker, but he has very short arms. He has decent power, but he’s far from technical on the feet and he struggles to close distance against longer/lankier opponents. Jean Matsumoto will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win via decision over Kasey Tanner. He’s undefeated professionally with a 14-0 record, and he’s put together an impressive resume as he’s debuting at just 24-years old. Five of his professional wins have come via submission and six have come via KO. This is another linear match-up as Argueta is the far better grappler here and Matsumoto is the far better striker. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a small shot on Argueta. He’s the more experienced fighter in this match-up and I expect he can utilize the small Apex cage to close distance. Dan Argueta by Decision
Victor Hugo -145 vs Pedro Falcao +120
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Victor Hugo and Pedro Falcao. It is a short notice appearance for Falcao who steps in for the withdrawing Alatengheili. He trains out of Nova Uniao and boasts solid muay thai skills. He performed well on Dana White’s Contender Series but that fight was not enough to earn him a contract in 2021. Hugo seems like the much better prospect, currently ranked the top fighter on the Brazilian regional circuit. His streak of thirteen wins has seen Hugo completing quick submissions and largely dominating his competition. I think he has a clear advantage here implementing his jiu jitsu against that of Falcao. Generally speaking, these older pros fighting once per year struggle competing at the UFC level. I do not expect much out of Falcao here on such short notice. Hugo will be the more effective fighter from range and the more likely to finish if these two engage on the mat. I am happy to bet on Hugo at odds that are this close. Victor Hugo by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Victor Hugo will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive win via submission over Eduardo Matias Torres Caut in the Contender Series. Hugo is 24-4 professionally, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2014. He’s a well-rounded fighter, but primarily a grappler. Eight of his professional wins have come via KO and nine have come via submission. He’s dangerous offensively but somewhat unconventional in his approach. His movements seem unnatural at times, and his aggressive style leaves opportunities for opponents to catch him with counter shots. Pedro Falcao will also be making his UFC debut here, but he’s taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Falcao is 16-3 professionally, having spent most of his career fighting for Shooto Brazil. Falcao is a dangerous grappler in his own right as a BJJ black belt. He’s dangerous on the feet, but hittable in exchanges. This is a volatile match-up, but I do see Hugo on the rightful favorite. He’s likely the better technical striker here and Falcao taking this on such short notice is hardly an advantage. Victor Hugo by Round Two KO
Norma Dumont -130 vs Germaine de Randamie +110
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Norma Dumont and Germaine de Randamie. It is the first time in Dumont’s career that she made the contracted weight for a bout at 135 pounds. Normally Dumont struggles at this weight, failing to secure takedowns or grappling as effectively as she does at featherweight. It will be hard for Dumont to wipe the floor with de Randamie who is the much longer fighter and effective when it comes to stopping takedowns. Dumont packs a punch but Germaine de Randamie has the much better striking fundamentals. She may not be very sharp here three years removed from competition, but I expect her to still control range against Dumont. De Randamie has great kickboxing and seems in fine physical shape for what is her tenth UFC appearance. Her only losses in the promotion came against Amanda Nunes, now removed from the title picture in retirement. These odds have seen her move drastically from a +170 to mere +110. Germaine de Randamie by Decision
- Nick: Norma Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling ability. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space, and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks, but her striking is fairly predictable. She has some power on the feet, but she telegraphs most of her strikes. Germaine de Randamie has been out of action since October of 2020. She is a former UFC Featherweight Champion, with notable wins over Julianna Pena, Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington. She’s an extremely athletic and technical striker and she’s massive for the division. At 39-years old she could be in the twilight of her career, but her lifestyle and genetics seem like they’ll carry her into her forties. This is a low confidence play given the long layoff for de Randamie, but I like the value of her as the underdog here. Even with Dumont being much younger and more active, I expect de Randamie to outclass her here. Germaine de Randamie by Decision
Valter Walker -260 vs Lukasz Brzeski +200
- Anthony: This is the UFC debut for Valter Walker against Lukasz Brzeski at heavyweight. Valter is brother of Johnny Walker, a long time staple of the light heavyweight division. While Brzeski has more experience fighting in the UFC, Walker has actually faced decent competition on his way to 11-0. He is a massive heavyweight, weighing thirty pounds more than his opponent today. While Walker can use his size to push around opponents and control fights, he is also a powerful striker in the pocket. Brzeski will need to be very careful engaging with Walker here or else I expect to see him knocked out. Brzeski will try to hurt Walker with kicks and distance strikes but I do not expect him to hold his own for long there. Walker is also an imposing force in top position, attempting submission and raining hellish ground and pound. I think his athleticism will shine through as he trounces Brzeski in this debut matchup. Valter Walker by Round Two KO
- Nick: Valter Walker will be making his UFC debut here. He is the younger brother of popular light heavyweight and roster main-stay, Johnny Walker. He is undefeated professionally with an 11-0 record, most recently capturing the Titan FC Heavyweight Championship over a former UFC fighter, Alex Nicholson. Walker has a massive frame and an 81” reach, but he is primarily a grappler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat and finishing them via ground-and-pound. At 26-years old he’s young for the division, and there’s no denying he hasn’t really been tested against competition on the level of his opponent in this match-up. Lukasz Brzeski is 8-3-1 professionally, coming off three consecutive losses under the UFC banner. He’s athletic, but his technical ability in both his striking and grappling is far from refined. He has decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes. This creates openings for his opponents to either take him down or counter him. The line feels too wide here given the low-level nature of this match-up, but I expect Walker to score a win in his debut. Brzeski will be dangerous in striking exchanges, but I expect Walker to completely overwhelm him with ground-and-pound. Valter Walker by Round Two KO
Alex Morono -300 vs Court McGee +240
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight between welterweight veterans Court McGee and Alex Morono. It appears McGee is starting to take a turn after losing two straight bouts by knockout. The 39 year old has a losing record in the UFC and appears to fight less urgently now than in years past. McGee struggles to respond to damage which could be a problem again today. Morono tends to move forward and fight with pressure on his opponents for as long as he can. He lands an average of 5.02 significant strikes per minute. While Morono is becoming a bit long in the tooth, he is still competing with great opponents at the highest level. He trains with a great team at Fortis MMA and executes a great game plan early in his fights. Normally I worry about his cardio failing him but he will certainly be able to outwork the likes of McGee. He is a safe bet to earn the win here today. Alex Morono by Round Two KO
- Nick: Morono is a well rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Morono is a coach at Fortis MMA, and he has one of the better minds for the sport at welterweight. He’s most recently coming off a hard fought decision loss to Joaquin Buckley, but Buckley’s stock has been rising dramatically so that hardly reads as a setback on his resume. Court McGee likes to pressure his opponents. He’s a decent striker, mostly because he can eat shots in order to throw back his own. He rarely looks crisp on the feet, but his solid chin allows him to find spots that otherwise might not be there for him. He has decent entries for takedowns, and he’s stronger than a lot of the other middling contenders in this division. He’s getting up there in age, but he seems to be in excellent shape. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2020, but it was reported he recently re-signed a new four fight contract with the promotion. McGee is tough, but at this point in his career I expect Morono to overwhelm him here. He’s the much faster and more dynamic striker of the two. The line has gotten wide, but Morono is undeniably the rightful favorite. Alex Morono by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 6:00pm EST
Charlie Campbell -175 vs Trevor Peek +145
- Anthony: Our main card opener is a sick fight at lightweight between Trevor Peek and Charlie Campbell. These are two very potent finishers who love to stand and exchange heavy blows. Campbell is coming off a win over Alex Reyes last year, winning by first round finish. Campbell appears rather hittable but he’s quick in the pocket exchanging blows to the body and the head. A durable guy like Peek may be able to walk through Campbell and hurt him but I favor Campbell here, the sharper counterpuncher. It is certainly a very winnable fight for Peek but I am not going to bite on him at this juicy plus number. Campbell does appear to have the more technical striker and far more controlled finishing power. Peek is an animal but Campbell should be able to find the chin here first. Campbell can also score offensive takedowns if he does end up getting clipped. He should have the advantage over Peek if these two engage on the mat, but that is not likely to happen. Expect a slug fest in this one. Charlie Campbell by Round Two KO
- Nick: Charlie Campbell is coming off a win in his UFC debut via KO over Alex Reyes. Campbell is a well-rounded fighter, but most of his success has come in striking exchanges. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo and Weidman MMA, and many of his teammates are already on the roster. Campbell nearly finished Chris Duncan on the Contender Series back in 2022, but Duncan survived and put Campbell away in one of the more surprising comebacks of that year. Peek is 9-1 professionally, but he’s only been fighting as a pro since 2020. Peek is an extremely aggressive brawler who throws hooks from wild angles and chases KOs with reckless abandon. His skills are still far from refined, but he gets by on his outstanding chin, toughness, and overall athleticism. Campbell is the more talented fighter in this match-up, but Peek should keep things interesting just based on his general toughness and will-power. I don’t like the price, but I have to back Campbell here as the more technically sound fighter and well-rounded fighter in this match-up. Charlie Campbell by Decision
Ignacio Bahamondes -350 vs Christos Giagos +275
- Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Christos Giagos and Ignacio Bahamondes. I am a big fan of Bahamondes, a polished kickboxer with an intelligent and aggressive fighting style. At just 26, Bahamondes has already won three UFC fights and looked fantastic in doing so. I am excited to see him bounce back here with a win over Giagos. Bahamondes lands more than double the volume of Giagos on average while also surpassing his rate of accuracy. Bahamondes also makes opponents miss 57 percent of their attempted strikes, a ridiculous number given the high pace he tends to fight. Keeping Giagos at the end of his shots will certainly make this an easy fight for Bahamondes to control. I believe Giagos will struggle to land clean on a faster and longer opponent. Bahamondes will get through with his jab more often than Giagos and likely connect on the more fruitful counters. He seems like a safe bet to get the win here. Giagos will fail to secure the takedowns that he needs to take this one. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round One KO
- Nick: Christos Giagos fights at a torrid pace, especially early in fights. He has solid takedown entries, a decent wrestling base and he usually does a good job avoiding damage on the feet as he absorbs less than three significant strikes per minute. The one major knock on him is his cardio, as he doesn’t seem to be nearly as effective in the third or even second rounds of his fights. This is likely the result of his kill-or-be-killed style, which has done him more harm than good at the UFC level. Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the center-line and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Giagos will be dangerous early here and the line feels far too wide, but I expect Bahamondes to weather an early storm until he can take this fight over as Giagos starts to fade. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Three Submission
Morgan Charriere -120 vs Chepe Mariscal +100
- Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight fight between Chepe Mariscal and Morgan Charriere. This is a very compelling matchup coming together on short notice for this event. Charriere was slated to face Seung Woo Choi tonight and start to follow up his massive 2023 campaign. Charriere is a very skilled fighter with impressive footwork and fluidity on the feet. Charriere is very technically skilled with slick counters and accurate kicks. Chepe is going to have the edge over Charriere in terms of power but I think it will be hard for him to track down the Frenchman. Charriere will stay out of harm’s way in this fight and keep more composed when the big shots do land. I could see him finding a finish in this bout but it will more than likely come late if Mariscal cannot keep his composure. I will bet Charriere now that these odds have closed and he is nearly a pick’em. Morgan Charriere by Decision
- Nick: Morgan Charriere is coming off an impressive KO win in his UFC debut over Manolo Zecchini. He is 19-9-1 professionally, and widely regarded as one of the better prospects to come out of France. Charriere is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and a crisp and compact striking style. Eleven of his nineteen wins have come via KO, but he frequently looks to grapple if he feels he has that advantage over his opponent. Chepe Mariscal is 15-6 professionally, coming off back to back wins under the UFC banner. He is well-rounded, but he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He has a solid chin and fights at an impressive pace, and his professional wins have almost exclusively come to UFC level opponents. He continues to improve at 31-years old and fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. This should be an excellent and competitive fight for however long it lasts, but I do expect Charriere can stay a step ahead. Charriere is a bit more athletic and explosive and I expect he can mix in his grappling if he needs to here. Morgan Charriere by Decision
Alexander Hernandez -200 vs Damon Jackson +160
- Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at featherweight between Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson. On Friday it was announced Hernandez had missed weight by a whopping four pounds. While Hernandez found some success at lightweight, featherweight has really not been the place for him. I think Hernandez is far more skilled than Jackson but these odds seem way off. Jackson can normally turn fights into brawls where he can wear down his opponents. Historically Hernandez has struggled when faced with adversity in his fights. Jackson is the type of fighter to make it a war, dragging Hernandez down with body locks and landing the more effective clinch strikes. Jackson does not always take punches well but I expect him to handle the early storm from Hernandez. Jackson should be favored if this fight does go to decision. He is being undervalued due to four previous knockout losses. Hernandez can land big combinations but he looks silly in the fights that he is missing. Damon Jackson by Decision
- Nick: Alexander Hernandez has KO power on the feet, he’s a decent defensive grappler but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. His cardio did seem to improve in his most recent win over Jim Miller, but he was more recently outclassed via decision as he faded against a durable opponent in Bill Algeo. He’s extremely gifted athletically, but wildly inconsistent. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with eight of his last twelve wins coming via submission. Jackson is a dangerous fighter offensively. He does a good job targeting the weaknesses of his opponents, but his striking defense and general durability have proven to be more of a weakness than a strength. Hernandez is the more athletic and dangerous striker in this match-up, but if he can’t finish Jackson quickly he’ll be susceptible to a late upset. That being said, I do expect Hernandez can find a finish early here. Jackson’s striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. Alexander Hernandez by Round One KO
Brendan Allen -220 vs Chris Curtis +180
- Anthony: The main event is a rematch at middleweight between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis. The first meeting between these two came in 2021 with Curtis stopping Allen on just a week’s notice. This is again a short notice appearance for Curtis but the product of Xtreme Couture is always sparring and keeping himself in fight shape. It is hard to justify Curtis as the underdog here given his wealth of experience and longevity in the sport. Having the head to head win over Allen gives Curtis an even further edge in this spot. Allen will need to make sure this fight plays out differently than their first encounter. Since that loss Allen has won six fights in a row, really making it a point to implement his grappling. Allen has very high level jiu jitsu and a clear advantage over Curtis if he can in fact secure some decent takedowns. Allen’s hands have gotten considerably better but he is still not going to outland Curtis in a boxing match. I am not very confident picking this bout but Allen should be able to avenge that loss here today. He has really come into his own as a fighter and I feel Allen belongs inside this division’s top ten. His chances of winning inside the distance seem better than expecting him to take a convincing decision. It would also not surprise me to see Curtis stop him again. Brendan Allen by Round Four Submission
- Nick: Fourteen of Allen’s twenty-three professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he recently shifted to an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC. He’s now on a six-fight winning streak, most recently securing a submission win over Paul Craig. His last loss came against his opponent in this match-up; Chris Curtis, who is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Marvin Vettori. Chris Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Allen to fight his type of fight. Curtis is at his best when he’s in close boxing range. He’s the better technical striker in this match-up and he certainly has a power advantage on the feet. Allen is the more talented fighter in this match-up, but I have trouble backing him at this price as Curtis has already KO’d him once. A low confidence play, but Curtis is the value side here. Chris Curtis by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com