If Jayden Daniels hadn’t gone from a ho-hum prospect in 2022 to a projected top 3 pick in the coming draft, J.J. McCarthy would get the award as this year’s biggest QB riser. His traits don’t jump off the page, but you can bet that there are plenty of Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay style offensive coordinators that are just begging for the chance to draft J.J. to their team.
J.J. McCarthy – Quarterback Michigan
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 219 lbs
Year: Junior
Age: 21.2
Arm Length: 31 ⅝”
Hand Size: 9”
NFL Player Comparison: More Agile Kirk Cousins OR Weaker Armed Zach Wilson
J.J. McCarthy is the youngest of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft and is fresh off winning the national title with Michigan after an undefeated season, while going 27-1 as the Wolverines starter during his tenure there. I’m not usually one to put a quarterback’s win loss total as a deciding factor in terms of where he should be drafted, but certain NFL teams certainly will.
You can almost guarantee his winning record will be mentioned multiple times in both the lead up to the draft and during his post draft press conferences. While they might gush at the record, McCarthy was on a team that intentionally limited his pass attempts (he had a grand total of 10 completions on 18 attempts for 140 yards in the championship game against Washington), so how much has been innate talent vs. benefiting from a tailor made system is up for debate.
McCarthy already has good NFL quarterback size, and is likely to be able to bulk up a bit more over the next couple of seasons without losing any mobility. Michigan runs a pro style offence, and while McCarthy wasn’t asked to do a ton in that system, he did his job at a fairly high level. McCarthy can make accurate throws in the middle of the field and does so with good timing, velocity and anticipation, something even veteran NFL quarterbacks struggle with. He was very good in college at navigating a collapsing pocket – he knew when to step up to avoid pressure and showed good instinctual playmaking skills. He always seems to be able to get his feet set on the throw and is often able to complete passes even when off rhythm.
Despite not being a high volume passer for Michigan, McCarthy was excellent on third downs and in high pressure situations. He can be aggressive as a passer when necessary, and is unafraid to rip throws into tight coverage, even when he knows he is about to take a hit. His mobility isn’t elite but is more of a positive than a detriment to his game. Surprisingly he was in the 96th percentile for the 3-cone drill at the combine for quarterbacks. He doesn’t provide the same level of rushing threat that Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams offer, but his scrambling ability definitely helps keep the offence on track and he’s generally able to complete the designed play while on the run. When he’s forced out of the pocket he’s generally able to keep his eyes downfield, although he struggles more as a passer when forced to his left than when forced right, which defenses will quickly figure out. His offensive play caller will be able to use him in play action packages without much fear of the throws going off course.
There were definitely some negative plays under pressure from McCarthy this past season that show that he has a tendency to take unnecessary sacks. But there’s a prevailing belief that those types of poor decisions can be coached out of him as he matures considering his age and his overall lack of experience as a focal point of the offence.
Much of McCarthy’s game could be shown as a teaching tape to young up and coming quarterbacks. He does do a lot of things right, but there certainly are plenty of flaws in his skillset.
On top of his limited usage at Michigan, McCarthy doesn’t have the deep arm that you’d like from a top prospect. He has good zip and accuracy on short throws which bodes well for certain systems, but he can be inconsistent on intermediate routes and doesn’t have an overly impressive ability to hit receivers on deep routes. He tends to throw slightly behind receivers in crossing routes – this doesn’t allow receivers to create yards after the catch and potentially puts them in dangerous situations if they get caught reaching back for the football.
McCarthy is the mystery box of this year’s draft. There’s a lot to like in his game, and he might pan out to be a legitimate NFL quarterback. But if he’s put in the wrong system that asks too much of him, he could flame out within a couple of seasons. If I’m drafting a quarterback in the top five, which is where McCarthy is now being projected to go, I would like to have someone that’s shown a little more consistency and has had to be “the guy” for his offence. McCarthy essentially played his entire college career with a lead, and has never had to show what he can do in a two minute drill with the game on the line. Frankly, he’s barely had to throw in the 3rd and 4th quarters as his team was too busy winning.
Drafting McCarthy is banking on the “what he could be” scenario. All of his traits are good, but not elite, and taking him in the top 5 should yield you someone that you can build a team behind, which I don’t believe McCarthy is as a prospect. His decision making is probably his best asset, and the path that leads him to having a successful career as a system quarterback starter is pretty evident. However, I have a hard time seeing how he’ is’ll be able to take a team to a higher level based on what he’s shown so far.
McCarthy projects to be the same type of system quarterback that Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell was able to generate so much regular season success with while Kirk Cousins was his starting out. So the rampant rumours of the Vikings interest in him seem to be valid. However, as we’ve seen with many unpolished quarterback prospects, McCarthy is far from a sure thing.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.