Brian Thomas Jr. is in a tier of his own in the upcoming draft. He’s not quite at the level of Harrison Jr, Nabers, and Odunze, but he’s still far above the next grouping of receivers in this year’s crop of rookies.
It’s almost inconceivable that the talented LSU wideout would fall out of Round 1, making him an interesting target for teams in need of pass catching help in the mid to late first round.
Brian Thomas Jr. – WR Louisiana State
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 209 lbs
Year: Junior
Age: 21.5
NFL Player Comparison: Christian Watson with working hamstrings/Who the Chargers thought Quentin Johnston was
There’s a world in which Brian Thomas Jr. makes people question how scouts had 3 wideouts rated above him, and also a very real chance that he never becomes more than a WR2/3 once he hits the NFL. Such is the array of possibilities once the intriguing prospect from Louisiana turns pro.
He isn’t an established route runner, and is coming from a program where he was the secondary receiving option on his own college team. Despite that, we’ve seen what players like him are able to accomplish if they land in the right environment. That incredible 4 game stretch that Christian Watson had in 2022 (313 receiving yards, 49 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns) shows what a player with high level speed and excellent hands can accomplish in today’s NFL.
Comparing Thomas Jr. to Quentin Johnston may seem like an insult, especially after Johnston’s awful rookie season, but the similarities are evident. Johnston saw 25.8% of his targets go 20-plus yards during his final collegiate season – Thomas was at 25.3% in 2023. Johnston’s average depth of target was 12.9 to Thomas’ 13.9. They played roughly the same amount of snaps, have very similar body types and Thomas is likely to get drafted in the same range that Johnston was last year (he went 21st overall to the Chargers). While they play a similar style, Thomas can actually catch the ball and doesn’t play as small as Johnston does. Johnston should have never gone that early in the 2023 draft – his flaws were those that could easily be exposed at the NFL level. Johnston isn’t physical and constantly tries to “alligator catch” the ball the way you teach kids when they’re learning to catch a frisbee. That isn’t Thomas’ game at all.
Thomas can effortlessly glide past defenders and has a natural ability to throw opponents off with his head fakes and shoulder shakes, making his corner and post routes something to marvel at. His speed is also a weapon in the short game. He can run an adequate crossing route and was successfully utilized on sweeps and end arounds in college.
After the catch he’s able to juke and accelerate from defenders for big gains. He’s had some success with the curl, comeback and hook routes, but that’s mainly due to defenders respecting his speed so much and not wanting to get beaten on deep balls. He’s an unrefined route runner and didn’t run a very diverse route tree in college. Where Thomas really stands out over Johnston though is his utilization of his hands and body at the point of the catch. Thomas doesn’t shy away from contact, and can snatch the ball out of the air before the defender has a chance to make a play. Johnston’s contested catch rate in 2022 was just 34.8%, whereas Thomas hit an impressive 53.8% in 2023.
There will certainly be some volatility that comes with drafting Thomas as his ceiling is likely more as a 1B as opposed to becoming a stand alone WR1 for a team. Especially if he’s unable to clean up his route running. NFL corners are among the most athletic group in the league, so he can’t rely on his natural abilities alone. There’s still a lot of work to do in Thomas’ game. That being said, his speed is NFL ready, he’s comfortable finding the ball in traffic and has the ability to make mid air body adjustments. All that put together makes for a high level ability to escape defenders with the ball in his hands.
I’m a big fan of what Brian Thomas Jr can potentially bring to an NFL team. While he’s currently being mocked in the 15-20 range, don’t be surprised if there are more than a few teams that look to move up in the draft to snag Thomas before there’s a major tier drop in receivers.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Tammy Anthony Baker. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.