Our too early predictions continue on with the running back rankings for the 2024 season.
It was a tricky year for running backs in 2023, with some big name veterans falling well short of expectations. Thankfully, we have a nice selection of young up and coming backs who are ready to take over slots 2-6 in our running back rankings. We’re seeing a real changing of the guard at the position, but of course, one man stands alone at the top.
Note: All fantasy rankings from the 2023 season are coming from Yahoo’s ½ PPR rankings.
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers – RB1 in 2023
No surprise, and no need to spend too much time on McCaffrey. He’s a cheat code for fantasy, finishing as the RB1 by over 100 fantasy points, and topped Ceedee Lamb, the WR1, by over 30 fantasy points. In a season where you were happy to get 13 points from your top running back picks, that was literally McCaffrey’s floor. He remains the RB1 for next season, and should be the first player taken in most drafts.
Tier 2:
2. Breece Hall – New York Jets – RB4 in 2023
Hall entered 2023 coming off of a torn ACL, lost his veteran quarterback on the first drive of the season, and was playing behind the 2nd worst offensive line in football (which if you watched any Jets games this season, it’s shocking to see that there was a team worse than them). There were definitely moments this past year when Hall owners were pulling out their hair, particularly early on. Hall averaged only 7.3 rushes for 27 yards per game in weeks 2 – 4, before finally exploding in week 5. Hall finished below the 1,000 rushing yard mark on the season, and only managed 5 rushing touchdowns, but his 76 receptions led all running backs, adding to his overall value. The Jets are all in on making a deep playoff run, despite this waste of a season – and they know they need to invest heavily in their offensive line this offseason. Hall will also by then be another year removed from his major injury. He has a real chance to challenge McCaffrey for the running back throne in 2024.
3. Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons – RB9 in 2023
Robinson was definitely getting drafted too early in last year’s drafts, but it was just too hard to ignore the incredible talent he has in space, both as a runner and as a pass catcher. Unfortunately his head coach refused to give him any high percentage looks. Bijan finished the season with only 3 carries within 5 yards of the end zone (33rd in the league), and only 11 carries from within 10 yards. Now there is a new coaching regime in Atlanta, and defensive minded head coach Raheem Morris has brought in Zac Robinson to be his offensive coordinator. Zac is another branch from the ever expanding Sean McVay tree, so you can expect this offense to look completely different from last year, especially if the Falcons find themselves a quarterback. Bijan will have every opportunity to expand his role into the 3 down back we expected when he was taken 8th overall.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions – RB10 in 2023
The Detroit Lions are running it back with their coaching staff for 2024, and I fully expect head coach Dan Campbell and OC Ben Johnson to once again field 2 top 15 backs. However, I expect Gibbs to begin to take on a bigger role after the Lions were seemingly taking their time at the start of the season to figure out their running back rotations. Gibbs was averaging just a shade under 8 fantasy points in weeks 1-4, before missing weeks 5 and 6 with an injury. Once he returned, he averaged 20 fantasy points per game from weeks 7 – 16, and that was mostly with David Montgomery in the lineup. He handily outperformed expectations in his first year in Detroit, totaling 1,261 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns. The ceiling is extremely high with Gibbs as a sophomore in this offense.
5. Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams – RB5 in 2023
In my opinion, Williams is tied with teammate Puka Nacua as the waiver wire pick up of the year, but they’re both looking like solid top 20 picks in next year’s fantasy draft. Williams ran away with the Rams job after proving to McVay that he’s a reliable ball carrier that can be trusted in pass protection, and he never looked back. Williams only had single digit points in 2 out of his 12 games played, and was essentially the only running back taking snaps for the offense in games that he suited up for. McVay is someone who loves to ride his lead back, and there are concerns about Williams’ ability to hold up to that at only 5 ‘9 ” and 194 lbs. Not to mention the fact that he has a bit of an injury history. But when he’s on the field he’s clearly a top 5 fantasy back.
6. De’Von Achane – Miami Dolphins – RB23 in 2023
Achane will be the guy who gets drafted way too early in every draft next year after we see him exploding past defenders in training camp. But if you’re the type of fantasy manager that loves to throw a little dynamite into your line up, Achane is your guy. The size is a major concern (5’9”, 188 lbs), and he has already had an up and down season with injuries in his rookie year… but how can you pass on that Olympic level speed? Achane will never be a solid 10-15 point per game guy – he will win you a week, or be a complete non-factor. The upside in this athlete with another year of McDaniels scheming up plays for him drops him easily into the top 10 running backs for the season.
7. Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – RB32 in 2023
The Colts seem to have found a stud head coach in Shane Steichen, and now that Taylor is back, committed and under contract, he’s in line for a big 2024. Make no mistake – Taylor was a disappointment in 2023. He missed the first 4 weeks due to his holdout, then took another 2 weeks to get back into game shape and catch up on the details of the Colts new offense. He started to really look like his old self from weeks 7 – 12, averaging 17 points per game, until a torn ligament in his thumb sidelined him until the Colts final 2 games. Indianapolis’ offensive line also bounced back after a disastrous 2022 season and finished in the top half of the league at run blocking. With the ankle issues seemingly behind Taylor, a full training camp actually working with Steichen and Anthony Richardson should set Taylor up for success in 2024.
Tier 3:
8. James Cook – Buffalo Bills – RB11 in 2023
Making the decision to start or sit Cook on a weekly basis was frustrating to say the least. Cook has his share of dud games, particularly against teams that he should have been able to take advantage of early on in the season. However, after the change from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, Cook was clearly a focal point of the Buffalo offense. Brady is back for 2024, and the Bills running back room is getting cleared out of the veteran bruisers that Dorsey would sign season after season to steal red zone work. Cook is certain to punch in more than the 2 rushing touchdowns he had in 2023 next season. And if you add an expected uptick in touchdowns to his 1,567 scrimmage yards, he can have a really nice fantasy season.
9. Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia – RB13 in 2023
Barkley is heading into his age 27 season and will be looking at a change of scenery. The Giants have largely squandered his career to this point by not surrounding him with talent. Barkley showed last year that despite his age, he still has plenty left to offer – finishing as the RB13 on a team without a quarterback while missing 3 games is an incredible feat. Him going from PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line to the top unit in the league is a massive jump, even with Jason Kelce’s retirement. If he’s healthy, he could produce top 3 numbers at the position in 2024.
10. Travis Etienne Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars – RB3 in 2023
Etienne is on my personal do not draft list – he just isn’t for me. He rode a completely unsustainable 3 week stretch to finish as the RB3 where his 2 touchdowns per game helped to mask his inefficiencies as a runner. I will say that the 58 receptions was a surprise, as I wasn’t sure that Doug Pederson trusted him as a pass catcher after bringing in Tank Bigsby in last year’s draft. Etienne finished with a very respectable 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, but the fact that 8 of those came in 4 games (one of those games being after the fantasy playoffs) makes me unsure of his future as a lead back. Etienne had the second most snaps of all running backs in the NFL in 2023, another stat that I just cannot see him replicating. Etienne is better utilized as an explosive change of pace option, but for now, Jacksonville will continue to run with Trevor Lawrence’s college buddy.
11. Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB8 in 2023
Like Etienne, White was extremely inefficient by all metrics, but he simply just didn’t leave the field. The Bucs are an interesting team to watch this offseason. They essentially threw together a roster for 2023 with whatever pieces they could afford, and that miraculously led them to a playoff win. This offseason, they have the 9th most cap space with plenty of empty slots on their roster. White might enter this summer as the team’s lead (and only) running back once again, keeping him fantasy relevant for another season. However, if they make any additions to that running back room, prepare for White’s usage to dip.
12. Isaiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs – RB16 in 2023
Pacheco certainly has an aggressive way to attack the grass with his cleats, but he’s developing into a real star at running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. You could easily make an argument that he was the best offensive player for the Chiefs in 2023. With Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire both on expiring contracts, the backfield is his to take for 2024. The Chiefs will have several free agency questions to answer, and are in need of some weapons on offense to replace Kelce (whether this is his swan song season or not), so Pacheco should enter 2024 with a real chance to enter the conversation as a top 12 RB.
Tier 4:
13. David Montgomery – Detroit Lions – RB12 in 2023
Montgomery will still have a key role in the Lions offense despite a meteoric rise from Gibbs. Campbell loves to pepper his secondary back with red zone opportunities, and I expect Montgomery to remain a top 5 red zone back in the league. This offense isn’t going away anytime soon, and Montgomery will continue to be their finisher.
14. Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers – RB36 in 2023
When healthy in this new Packers offense, Jones has the look of a top 5 running back. Jones had an impressive 4.6 yards per carry in 2023, while his counterpart A.J. Dillon (a pending free agent) could only muster 3.4 ypc. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has already said that he absolutely expects Jones to be back in 2024. Yes, the injuries are a real concern, as is his age (Jones is already 29) but if he can navigate the injuries for one more year, he’ll be an excellent draft choice without spending too high of a draft pick. Keep him on your radar.
15. Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – RB22 in 2023
I am not an Arthur Smith apologist, nor am I really a fan of Najee Harris, but Smith as the Steelers new offensive coordinator is just a match made in some weird twisted heaven for those who believe in Harris. Smith can run a capable offense when he has someone above him to keep him in line, which I seriously doubt Mike Tomlin would have any issues with. Smith is going to take his experience from the Titans working with Derrick Henry over to the Steelers and ride Harris down after down while underutilizing Jaylen Warren. It’s a script we’ve all seen before, so we might as well just accept it now.
16. Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – RB6 in 2023
No running back gets ignored more by the fantasy community more than Joe Mixon. Every offseason he’s an afterthought at best, and yet he continues to produce. He’s getting up there in age (27 years old) and now has a really fun explosive back behind him (Chase Brown), but he’s always produced when healthy, even in a tandem. He’s a fairly safe floor play, will put up 1,000 rushing yards and 7-9 touchdowns, with a little receiving bump thrown in for good measure. On the sexy scale, he’s probably closer to Danny Devito than Timothee Chalamet, but sometimes you just need something reliable to go home to.
17. James Conner – Arizona Cardinals – RB18 in 2023
The Cardinals simply have way too many holes on their roster to be bothered to bring in another big name back to take snaps away from Conner. He’ll once again be their lead back in 2024, and while owners may get frustrated with him at times, for the second year in a row Conner was an absolute monster in fantasy playoffs. He also had his first 1,000 yard rushing season in 2023 despite playing in only 13 games. The tank is probably running out as he will be 29 by the time next season kicks off, but the volume will be there as long as he is healthy.
18. Tyjae Spears – Tennessee Titans – RB34 in 2023
The former Bengals offensive coordinator is tasked with turning around the Titans franchise in the midst of a major rebuild, but he has a nice piece to start off with in Spears at running back. Spears started to show flashes in the second half of the season, but being behind Derrick Henry is a monumental barrier to get through. Much is to be decided in the offseason, but my early prediction is that the Titans won’t be in too many close games in 2024, which will limit Spears from having a truly breakout season. He’ll be a nice piece to own in fantasy, but unless some major improvements are made, especially along the offensive line (the only line worse than the Jets), Spears might be in for a long season of escaping tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
19. Raheem Mostert – Miami Dolphins – RB2 in 2023
The pick of fantasy drafts, Mostert wowed us all with his 21 total touchdowns. His 1,187 scrimmage yards are impressive, but not out of this world. Just having Mostert play an entire season would have been a personal win for the 31 year old, and he blew every single expectation out of the water. I have to drop him in the rankings though. His touchdown rate is so absurd that it just isn’t sustainable. Don’t forget, Jamaal Williams (who is 3 years younger) led the league in 2022 with 17 touchdowns and his team had to have a mutiny to get him 1 in 2023. Touchdowns are a fickle thing to predict, but I would bet the house that he won’t even begin to approach that number again in 2024.
20. Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks – RB20 in 2023
Walker managed to play in 15 games in 2023, but I would bet he was healthy for maybe half of them. His receiving numbers had a nice uptick compared to his 2022 rookie season, but most of his efficiency numbers as a rusher were down. This could all be attributed to injuries, but with a new regime coming into Seattle this season, it’s hard to trust that they would rely on a back who has been fighting injuries throughout the early part of his career. Walker is still only 23, so he has a shot to remain as the team’s lead back, but there are a lot of questions to answer in Seattle.
Tier 5:
21. Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys (UFA) – RB15 in 2023
22. Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans (UFA) – RB7 in 2023
23. Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders (UFA) – RB25 in 2023
24. Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots – RB35 in 2023
25. Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – RB14 in 2023
26. Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – RB30 in 2023
27. Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns (IR) – NR in 2023
28. Brian Robinson – Washington Commanders – RB21 in 2023
Tier 6:
29. Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks – RB47 in 2023
30. Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints – RB73 in 2023
31. Gus Edwards – Baltimore Ravens (UFA) – RB19 in 2023
32. Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers – RB27 in 2023
33. Jaylen Warren – Pittsburgh Steelers – RB26 in 2023
34. Zamir White – Las Vegas Raiders – RB57 in 2023
35. Jerome Ford – Cleveland Browns – RB17 in 2023
36. Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears – RB41 in 2023
Tier 7:
37. Ty Chandler – Minnesota Vikings – RB45 in 2023
38. Roschon Johnson – Chicago Bears – RB49 in 2023
39. Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals – RB64 in 2023
40. Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers (UFA) – RB28 in 2023
41. Devin Singletary – Houston Texans (UFA) – RB30 in 2023
42. Zach Moss – Indianapolis Colts – RB29 in 2023
43. Keaton Mitchell – Baltimore Ravens – RB 56 in 2023
44. Chris Rodriguez Jr. – Washington Commanders –
45. D’Andre Swift – Philadelphia Eagles (UFA) – RB24 in 2023
46. Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons – RB34 in 2023
47. Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings – RB37 in 2023
48. Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars – RB62 in 2023
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Daniel Hertwig. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.