It’s been just over a week since the NFL regular season ended, and the NFL coaching market has been flipped on its head.
The Atlanta Falcons wasted no time firing former Head Coach Arthur Smith at midnight on Black Monday to get things started, followed by the unsurprising firing of Ron Rivera in Washington. Then things got really interesting with the surprising splits between Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans, Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks and Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are the only club to have already filled their coaching vacancy as, despite the obvious ties between the organization and Vrabel, they quickly promoted Jerod Mayo to become the team’s 15th head coach for the 2024 season. Mayo will have his work cut out for him, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Priority number one will be finding an exciting new offensive coordinator and reshaping the personnel if the team wants to have any success next year.
That leaves us with seven open head coaching positions as the aforementioned Seahawks, Falcons, Titans, and Commanders join the Panthers, Raiders and Chargers in one of the most exciting coaching carousels in recent memory.
The biggest coaching candidate names can also be waiting to see some playoff results, as the Cowboys, Eagles and Bills are all potentially willing to consider a coaching change this offseason pending final interviews.
Ranking the vacancies is tricky – every prime candidate will have their own thoughts on each situation and prioritize certain aspects differently. 70 year olds like Carroll and Belichick’s careers are on totally different timelines than the young up and comers like Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik. But, there are some things that stand out for each club. Here’s our attempt to put our completely biased opinions out there and put them in order, from worst to first.
Hopefully we can get this done before another round of firings…
7th – Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are a team devoid of talent after a disastrous 2023 free agency period, do not own the number one pick despite a two-win season, and have an owner who was seen throwing a drink at a fan as the team was getting shut out for the second straight week.
Tepper’s antics have been well documented (including but not limited to admitting if a waiter is rude to him he imagines buying the restaurant just to fire him, and actually buying his former bosses mansion in the Hamptons just to knock it down), so there can’t be a long line of coaches with the Panthers atop their wish list.
Tepper fired Frank Reich 11 games into his tenure as the coach of the Panthers, naming Chris Tabor as the interim head coach – the sixth man to hold that title since Tepper bought the team in 2018. No new coach entering that situation can be confident with their job security as Tepper has gone through 4 coaches in an 18 month span.
On the field, things aren’t much better.
I’m not ready to call Bryce Young a bust after a poor rookie season, but his ceiling definitely seems to be dropping. His lack of size and overall arm talent really held him back this year, as did his inability to make quick decisions – something he was constantly forced to do working behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
The team tried to patch together some offensive weapons in free agency for Young, but that was a colossal failure. They gave Adam Theilen a 3 year, $25 million dollar deal despite being 32 years old at the time and showing obvious signs of decline in Minnesota. Miles Sanders got a 4 year, $25.4 million dollar contract and was quickly surpassed by Chubba Hubbard on the depth chart.
The offense is riddled with aging vets and draft busts with no sign of internal improvement in sight.
On defense, the team has to fix the league’s worst run defense and find a way to re-sign defensive end Brian Burns despite having next to no leverage in contract negotiations after a split between the two parties has felt imminent for multiple seasons now.
So to summarize – one of the worst owners in the league, no real prospects in place, an aging corps, no 1st round pick and will be entering the 2024 offseason with only the 16th most cap space in the league.
Tepper’s search isn’t about interviewing to find the best candidate – it is about finding someone who will actually take this job.
6th – Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders moved on from Josh McDaniels after a 3-5 start, appointing Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach. The vibes of that team immediately shifted, and it was obvious from the moment McDaniels walked out of the building the team had not only been tuning him out as a coach, but were actively anticipating his demise.
Pierce was able to lead a flawed roster to a 5-4 record over the remaining 9 games, and turned the team into appointment viewing more often than not.
At quarterback, Aiden O’Connell has to take extremely large steps in his development if he wants to be their QB of the future, but with Davante Adams and Jakobi Myers at receiver, and a promising young tight end in Michael Mayer, the club has a strong case to lure a veteran free agent to step in and fix the Jimmy Garoppolo mistake from last offseason. Their offensive line is decent, and the team has shown that they can be dominant in the run game when they need to be. There would be a strong argument for the club to go after a Kirk Cousins like quarterback to elevate the offense. They also currently have the 13th pick in the draft, so there are trade up possibilities if there’s a quarterback in the draft that they really like.
Their defensive backfield still needs work, but Max Crosby is a superstar who also outworks everyone in the locker room – he is truly someone you can build a defensive unit behind.
You might be asking why I have the Raiders ranked so low after laying out all the pros for this team. In my opinion, this goes one of two ways – they either remove the interim tag off Pierce, and therefore this job was never really available, or if they move on, this roster falls apart as the players revolt. Maxx Crosby has already insinuated that he would be looking for a trade if Pierce isn’t retained – how many other star players would follow suit? Adams was vocal all season about his usage in the offense, so it seems like we’re just waiting for the straw to break the camel’s back that will change his general grumbles into serious trade demands.
Now to be fair – it’s one thing for players to speak up for their coach now, but if the Raiders are able to land a superstar coach like Belichick or Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh, all that loyalty could go out the window in a hurry. The positive locker room vibe that Pierce built over his tenure isn’t something to discount, and it could have serious ramifications for the team going forward.
#5 – Tennessee Titans
The Titans are losing one of the NFL’s best head coaches, but it really feels like it was time for this franchise to turn the page. Vrabel has been head coach of the Titans since 2018 and leaves with a respectable 54-45 record (54.5 win percentage), but went 13–21 over the past 2 seasons.
The entire roster looks ready for a turnaround, something that you could see entering the 2023 campaign. Ryan Tannehill played out the final year of his contract, and the Titans attempted to draft a developmental replacement quarterback in back to back years. Malik Willis (3rd round 2022) hasn’t shown much promise, but Will Levis (2nd round 2023) took over in week 7 and showed some strong signs. He’s still a ways away from being a polished starter in the NFL, but he’s at least someone you can roll out next year and not have to panic and overspend in free agency or reach at the draft. The Titans have a chance to take their time and get the quarterback that they want as they’re likely headed to a top pick next season on top of the 7th overall pick in this coming draft.
Derrick Henry and Deandre Hopkins are also likely gone – this team is set to do a full scale rebuild, especially if they want to compete with the now quarterback heavy AFC South.
The Titans would be great for a young up and comer looking to take his shot on slowly building a team that matches his vision – particularly one with a solid defensive background – but there’s a lot of work to be done and is going to be a long grind.
#4 – Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are the only team on the list with a bonafide franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert and a proven left tackle in Rashawn Slater. The 5th overall pick should be a big time impact player (ideally an offensive weapon that helps bring some speed to this offense) but the franchise needs a full culture change after yet another season of disappointments.
Austin Ekeler is coming off an abysmal season and is set to enter free agency, while Mike Williams has to try and come back from a torn ACL as he turns 30 years old. Their 1st round pick Quinten Johnston looks like a bust as his issues catching the ball in college followed him to the NFL.
The Chargers have stars on the roster, but that window for many of them looks to be slowly shutting, and there will be no answers in free agency. LA has one of the worst salary cap projections for 2024 as they’ll be entering the offseason an estimated $44.9M over the cap. Tough decisions will have to be made, as on top of Herbert’s massive extension, they have both Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa on cap hits of over $30 million next season. Something has to give on the roster just to make them cap compliant, so they’ll likely plug gaping wounds with bandages yet again this offseason.
The Detroit Lions should be their blueprint – after years of disappointments, they went out and got a strong culture guy in Dan Campbell, and surrounded him with exciting young coordinators to focus on the details of the game – unfortunately the Chargers can’t continue wasting prime years of Herbert and Allen to develop that culture.
#3 – Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll leaving Seattle just seems wrong. While they announced he would be moved to an “advisory” role, it’s hard to see him accept that position – especially after saying that decision wasn’t made by “football people”. Carroll is the NFL’s oldest coach, but the youngest at heart. Replacing a legend won’t be easy, but the culture that Carroll built will remain in his returning players.
The team looks to have found legit starting tackles in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas who are only 23 and 25 years old respectively to keep this offense humming. While Tyler Lockett is starting to show his age (and has a cap hit north of $27 million for each of the next two years), DK Metcalf is still one of the most exciting receivers in the league, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba started to show he’s ready for an elevated role next year.
Carroll, as he’s known to do, has also already insulated the running back position, taking Zach Charbonnet in last year’s draft to work behind Kenneth Walker.
Geno Smith may not be the most exciting option at quarterback, but he’s on the higher end of mid-tier and would be a great bridge quarterback over the next couple of seasons.
On defense, Devon Witherspoon showed in his rookie season that he is ready to lead the second iteration of the legion of boom.
The shoes to fill here are massive – but Carroll is leaving the team set up for success.
#2 – Atlanta Falcons
I debated back and forth between the Seahawks and the Falcons, but ultimately gave the slight edge to the Falcons despite the Seahawks having a slightly better situation at quarterback.
There are a lot of similarities, but the deciding factor was the Falcons get to play in the NFC South, one of the weakest divisions in football, while the Hawks slug it out in the brutal NFC West. There’s more of an opportunity for a coach to step into Atlanta and have success next year, so this is a prime spot for an older coach to come in and have a few seasons of glory (although admittedly they should put the emphasis on finding an offensive minded coach and retain defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen).
We’ve talked ad nauseum about Arthur Smith’s misuse of the talent on this offense, but they truly have an embarrassment of riches in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, all of who are still on their rookie contracts. Their offensive line is also mostly intact and will be back after ranking 3rd in pass blocking last season.
Controlling the 8th overall pick, the Falcons are unlikely to be able to draft a day 1 starting quarterback – but that pick is extremely enticing to a team who has one they might be willing to move on from (Justin Fields comes to mind) in a draft day package.
The Falcons truly could be one quarterback away from being a perennial playoff team in a weak division.
#1 – Washington Commanders
Now is the time to jump on the Commanders and move that franchise into the 20th century. The stink of Dan Snyder is leaving the building, and with it will come a much needed breath of fresh air.
New ownership led by Joe Harris is already making exciting moves, bringing Bob Myers, the architect behind the Warriors recent glory years, to consult in the team’s search for a new GM and coach.
The new Commanders regime also gets the pleasure of drafting either Caleb Williams (a D.C. native) or Drake Maye to help bring the Commanders to be their quarterback of the future.
On offense, the Commanders have 2 exciting explosive receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson (who I still believe in), and a couple exciting pieces on defense who stepped up after the team sold off two of the best pass rushers at the trade deadline. The roster construction needs work, but they have extra picks in the draft thanks to last season’s trade deadline as well as the second most cap space in the league.
The product on the field might still take a year or two to show promise, but with a proven owner who is determined to do things the right way and bring this franchise back to where it once was (it’s hard to believe that not so long ago, this franchise was America’s most valuable pro sports franchise) it really feels like it’s time to buy low on Commanders stock before you miss your chance.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.