The Divisional Round of the playoffs is known by many as the most exciting weekend of football, and it certainly delivered once again with 3 of this past weekend’s matchups being decided by a total of 14 combined points. Even the Ravens blow out of the Houston Texans was an intriguing matchup despite the final score.
At the end of the weekend, the better teams came out on top – 3 of the 4 games ended up with the betting favourite as victors, with the Chiefs being the only “upset” as the Bill were 3 point favourites. But were there really many people outside of Buffalo betting against Mahomes, Reid and the rest of that Kansas City team coming through in a pivotal playoff matchup?
With only 2 weekends left of NFL football, there’ll be plenty of time for us to break down the Conference Championship games in the lead up to Sunday, so we should take a breather and reflect on this past weekend’s slate and what they mean for each team.
Houston Texans – 10 @ Baltimore Ravens – 34
While the second half was a blowout by the Ravens, Houston tried to keep this one interesting as the game was tied at 10 entering halftime. An impressive feat from rookie head coach Demeco Ryans and his crew against a Ravens team that is clearly in win now mode while the Texans are still in the midst of a rebuild.
After what’s reported to have been a profanity laced inspirational speech from future 2 time MVP Lamar Jackson at halftime, the Ravens offense woke up while their defense continued to shut down C.J. Stroud in the second half.
The Houston offense as a whole was never able to get in sync against this Baltimore defense and what’s a highly underrated home field advantage for the Ravens. Houston finished the game with a franchise playoff record 11 penalties, 6 of which took place in the 1st quarter as the team struggled to figure out their communication with the intense crowd noise.
The only touchdown the Texans scored was on a punt return, and C.J. Stroud didn’t have a great game by any stretch of the imagination despite still showing his incredible ability to make difficult throws look like something he can do in his sleep. The fact that he was able to go the entire game without taking a single sack or turning the ball over is an impressive feat as the Texans offense was clearly overmatched by Baltimore’s defensive scheme.
After an incredible play calling performance last week against the Cleveland Browns, Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik reverted back to his run-run-pass offense that held the Texans back during parts of the regular season. The Ravens had no problem sniffing this out, as Devin Singletary was only able to average 2.4 yards per rush over the course of the game (and that includes a 16 yard rush), as he was consistently getting stuffed in the backfield against this Baltimore front. Particularly on first down where he rushed 6 times for a total of 9 yards.
I was a big advocate of Slowik getting a chance as a head coach, but his propensity to fall back into the same predictable patterns makes me think that he would probably benefit from another season as offensive coordinator in Houston. He can continue to work with Stroud and whatever weapons they bring in on offense, as well as this developing offensive line, and enter the 2025 offseason as one of the top head coaching candidates. With such a deep pool of veteran coaching candidates this year, I would hate to see him leave this offseason for a lesser team (aka the Carolina Panthers) just to rush himself into a head coaching role. Having his name tied to another year of development of this team’s offense is only going to improve his resume, and selfishly, I want to see another season of him working with Stroud in Houston.
On the Ravens side, their offense certainly came out slow after their bye week, but their defense came to play from the opening coin flip and gave Lamar & co. a chance to get their blood flowing.
Jackson only completed 16 passes for 152 yards, but he threw 2 key touchdowns while also averaging 9.1 yards per carry on 11 rushes, tallying 100 more scrimmage yards and 2 more scores – both in the second half.
The wildest aspect of this game is that after finishing the season 5th last in the league with a 21.0% blitz percentage, the Texans sent their defense after Jackson to start this game, blitzing on 13 of Jackson’s 18 drop backs (72%) in the first half. The Texans clearly felt that the only way to beat this Ravens offense was to eliminate Jackson so they sent everything they had at him early and often. And if we’re being honest, in past years with Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, this was a proven method to slowing down the Ravens.
However this weekend, Jackson was as cool, calm and collected as I’ve ever seen him. Instead of rushing passes like he did in his younger days, Jackson showed much more pocket awareness and was expertly using his footwork to step away from the rush and complete the play. Monken’s offensive game plans has check downs and safety valves built into it for these kinds of scenarios and Jackson was able to find them and negate the Texans pass rush.
After only 1 victory in his previous 4 playoff appearances, Jackson has definitely been hearing the outside chatter that he needs to prove he can get it done in the playoffs, and he really showed his evolution in this game.
As impressive as Jackson was, the Ravens defense will be the unit that leads them to the Super Bowl. Defensive Coordinator Mike MacDonald has been rightfully getting the recognition he deserves these past few weeks as he has been taking head coaching interviews. The Ravens have some very good players on defense, but they don’t have a go-to star like a T.J Watt or Myles Garrett. Instead, this is a group that’s committed to the defensive scheme and are playing like a cohesive unit.
The linebackers are the key to the defense – led by Roquan Smith – but it’s the play of safety Kyle Hamilton that gets my attention every week. He’s a tall, lanky safety that loves contact and always seems to make a play on the ball whenever it’s in his area. He’s one of those rare defensive players that you instantly recognize on a play even if you can’t see his number. He’s just always making an impact when the play goes towards him. They also managed this impressive defensive performance without top cornerback Marlon Humphries, who was essentially a game time decision this week. If he’s able to get healthy for next weekend’s matchup this defense will be even more intimidating as an opponent.
The future is bright for the Texans – they put themselves on the map as a team on the rise for 2024 – but the Ravens had no problems stepping up and putting an end to their Cinderella run, sending a warning to the remaining teams that they’re still the ones to beat this postseason.
Green Bay Packers – 21 @ San Francisco 49ers – 24
The youngest team in the NFL was never expected to win the Super Bowl – or even make the playoffs for that matter. But Matt Lafleur’s Packers led by Jordan Love gave everything the 49ers could handle on Saturday night.
Love will be entering his 5th season in the NFL in 2024, but only his 2nd as the Packers starter. And there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll do so with a top 5 quarterback contract after offseason negotiations wrap up this summer. The team simply cannot consider letting him test the market after his 1st season as a starter.
As fantastic as Love has been, I really feel like Lafleur also deserves his flowers for this run. He’s been the head coach of the Packers since 2019, and although the team had success with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, there were constant reports that Rodgers was just calling his own plays at the line and Lafleur was forced to take a back seat to the temperamental future hall of famer. He paid his dues, and, in what’s essentially his first season calling his own offense, he turned a pile of green receivers into one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Love certainly had his struggles at points during the year, and that final interception he threw in this game is almost inexcusable, but that shouldn’t take away from everything the young quarterback did this past season. He’s set himself up for a massive payday after finishing the season with 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions, all while working without a healthy Aaron Jones and integrating a slew of brand new rookie receivers into the offense. Love completed passes to 10 different receivers in this game – 9 of the 10 are in their 1st or 2nd season in the NFL. This team’s ceiling will only continue to rise.
As for the Niners, they cannot be leaving this game with much confidence.
Deebo Samuel limped off the field early, returned, and then left again and was quickly ruled out with a shoulder injury. Early week reports have him as a coin flip to play next week against the Lions. It looked like the Niners had Samuel heavily involved in their game plan for the game against the Packers, and the offense was fairly stagnant without him. His game matches up perfectly against the weaknesses in the Lions defense, so if he can’t go next weekend that will affect the team’s offensive game plan greatly.
Brock Purdy didn’t have a good game at all in the rain against the Packers. Sure, he didn’t turn the ball over and finished with over 250 yards and a touchdown, but the throws that he was missing were egregious misses. He had 2 turnover worthy plays that the Packers defenders failed to secure, which could have changed this result drastically. His receivers were constantly forced to contort their bodies to make acrobatic catches to bail out their quarterback. Purdy has always struggled in the rain (and make no mistake, it was absolutely pouring on Saturday in San Francisco) so the team better hope for clear skies this Sunday as this is a concerning trend.
At the end of the day, the 49ers got the job done despite losing Samuel, poor quarterback play, and a way-too-passive time management approach from head coach Kyle Shanahan (more on that later this week), so it’s hard to be too critical. They get to face the Lions at home instead of having to go into that raucous Detroit crowd, and are big favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. Their defense is on top of it’s game, picking off Love twice in the divisional round, and the offense has an abundance of talent even without Samuel.
After coming up short last season in the conference finals, the Niners are definitely going to be facing more pressure than the Lions this weekend who are playing with house money. They’ve exercised the playoff demons that have haunted this franchise since the early 90’s, and have the majority of NFL fans behind them.
San Francisco has a big test ahead of them this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 23 @ Detroit Lions – 31
In the matchup of 1st overall quarterback misfits, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff put on an entertaining performance to kick off our Sunday afternoon.
Mayfield’s resurgence has been amazing to watch. Cast out of Cleveland after years of being told to stay in his lane, he showed up to the Rams last season with 5 games left to a team already well out of the playoffs and was told by HC Sean McVay to just be himself. He won his first game despite joining the team that week, and was just ok for the remainder of the season. That only earned him a 1-year, $4 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – a team that was dealing with the financial ramifications of pushing all of their chips in to win a Super Bowl with Tom Brady. Mayfield easily won the starting job in training camp, and has been a solid quarterback all season while keeping McVay’s words in his mind. He’s clearly just being himself out on the field, and it’s proving to be exactly what he needs to succeed.
The last thing I expected coming into this season was for Mayfield to be able to continue Mike Evans 1,000 yard season streak, but their connection was almost immediate once the regular season began, and it showed in this pivotal playoff game. Evans and Mayfield connected for 8 catches on 11 targets for 147 yards and 1 touchdown, and they seemed to be able to have their way with the Detroit defensive backfield all game. Mayfield finished with 349 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, but was inevitably undone by the 2 interceptions.
Jared Goff’s numbers were slightly less impressive – 30 for 43 for 287 yards and 2 touchdowns – but he protected the ball and didn’t have that “Goff” moment where he makes an inexplicable throw that leads to a turnover.
The Lions won this game in the trenches – center Frank Ragnow not only battled Vita Vea on key plays, including a 4th down touchdown run by Craig Reynolds, but also through some pretty significant in-game injuries. There were running lanes all game for Jahmyr Gibbs to exploit, as he turned 9 carries into 74 yards (8.2 ypc) while Montgomery was left to handle the grinding running work (10 carries, 33 yards).
On defense, Aiden Hutchinson was his predictable workhorse self, causing constant disruption around Mayfield, but the Lions called a clever game plan resulting in safeties Ifeatu Melifonwu (1.5 sacks) and rookie Brian Branch (1 sack) getting in on the action.
Tampa was a nice, surprising story this season, but Detroit clearly has the better team on paper, and used the home field to their advantage.
I was concerned that Dan Campbell’s high strung personality would have the Lions entering games with too much adrenaline, resulting in a mid game energy dump, but he’s been incredibly collected on the sidelines and has his team playing at a high level. With his ultra-aggressive play calling style, and his team performing as well as they are, they’re certainly capable of pulling off a massive upset this weekend in San Fran.
Kansas City Chiefs – 27 @ Buffalo Bills – 24
You can’t say that both teams didn’t have their chances in this game, as, while it was entertaining, the major mistakes at key moments were my biggest takeaway from this matchup.
There was the massive Diggs drop on a 60 plus yard pass, as he finished with just 3 catches for 21 yards on 8 targets with 2 drops. Then there was the failed fake punt when Kansas City only had 10 defenders on the field, the Mecole Hardman fumble into the endzone, and, of course, the field goal that sailed wide right to bring back ghosts of playoffs past for Bills Mafia.
As someone with no rooting interest for either team, this was a highly entertaining matchup with more twists than an M. Night Shyamalan plot. But for a fan of either team, there has to be some major concerns.
The Bills had an amazing run to not only get themselves back into the playoff race, but to ultimately win the AFC east and be able to host this divisional matchup against their playoff rivals. Unfortunately the end results remained the same, as Josh Allen falls to 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs despite his impressive performances.
The Bills defense has been devastated by injuries during their impressive run and no Bills player generated more than 2 quarterback pressures all game. That allowed Mahomes to dice up the Bill defensive backfield, throwing for 2 scores on 9 completions on just 11 targets against the Bills cornerbacks. It’s hard to say that the Bills window to win a Super Bowl is closing – Josh Allen is still a top quarterback in the league, and they have some pieces – but there are some serious concerns moving forward.
Allen’s cap hit was just over $18 million this past season. That explodes to over $47 million next season, while Diggs goes from $14 million in 2023 to almost $28 million in 2024. Dawson Knox is going to be earning over $14 million. You can see the trend here. The Bills gave large extensions to who they thought were the players that would get them over the hump in the playoffs, and are now going to be cap strapped with nothing to show for it. Sure, the defense will be better next year if they can stay healthy, but the team is already projected to be $43 million over the salary cap for 2024, making it almost impossible for them to make any significant free agent additions this offseason. Allen alone will keep them competitive, as he has shown year after year, but to win it all, you need plenty of depth, and even more luck – two things the Bills seem to lack.
The Chiefs offense isn’t anywhere close to what it used to be, but they’re clearly riding a dominant defense and doing just enough on offense to win. I still can’t get over the fact that L’Jarius Sneed gave up his 1st touchdown of the entire year despite shadowing the opposing team’s best receiver game after game.
Kadarious Toney has been benched, and, if he could, I think Andy Reid would bench Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling after last week’s game. The Chiefs traded for Hardman midway through the season and immediately put him in as their primary punt returner, but it feels like every catch off a punt is an adventure. He racked up 2 offensive touches this past weekend for a grand total of 1 yard and had 2 fumbles. That’s just unacceptable at any level of football. MVS just runs cardio for most of the game, and when he finally is targeted downfield, it’s a 50-50 chance if he’s going to make even the simplest catch.
Thankfully for Chiefs fans, Mahomes can still make magic when he needs to, and earned some massive 1st downs with his legs. Travis Kelce seems to be ramping it up for the playoffs and was able to sneak behind the defenses for 2 nice touchdown catches. Rashee Rice seems like a star in the making, and the Chiefs actually have a run game with Isiah Pacheco running like a man possessed. All of their offensive weapons will need to step up against the Baltimore defense if they want it back to the Super Bowl this year.
All in all, we have 4 really, really good teams battling for the right to play in the Super Bowl this year, with each one having a legitimate chance to punch their ticket to Las Vegas.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Erik Drost. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.