The lead up to wild card weekend was ripe with storylines, and that avalanche of information may only be topped by the aftermath when all is said and done.
Coaches’ jobs were put into question after both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles lost in embarrassing fashion to the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively. The Cowboys seem content to run it back with Mike McCarthy in charge, but after three consecutive 12 win regular seasons, he still only has one playoff win to his credit since taking over in 2020.
The Eagles head coaching position is still in flux, as Nick Sirianni is interviewing new potential coordinators and trying to come up with an explanation for owner Jeff Laurie and GM Howie Roseman as to how a team this talented on paper that started out the season 10-1 finished with a 11-7 record, including their dismal performance in the playoffs. Sirianni is a leader in that locker room, and the veterans on the roster have gone to bat for him, but the script on how to beat the Eagles was written early (blitz often, attack the defensive backfield who learned tackling from the Mud Dogs) and Sirianni never adjusted. Jalen Hurts looked lost against the Bucs constant pressure, and with no checkdown options he struggles to get himself out of trouble. It was a disappointing performance all around, and a lot of that came down to Sirianni and his coordinators simply being out coached for the second half of the season.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins can be thankful that these are two franchises that draw the ire of the average NFL fan, so the fact that they now hold the current longest streak in the NFL without a playoff win has become an afterthought. At the start of the season, the Dolphins offense was so explosive that it was being nicknamed “the greatest show on surf” – but they proved throughout the season that they couldn’t hold up against higher competition. Their defense looked like it would be a force to be reckoned with when they appeared to be getting healthy at the same time, but injuries came in waves for the Dolphins, so I feel like that unit should get a pass for their disappointing end of season result. People are making excuses for them – blaming their inept offensive performance on the cold – but the fact is Miami beat just one playoff bound team the entire season – they were never real contendors. That doesn’t bode well for the core group of this team, and they need to take a long, hard look in the mirror this offseason as Tyreek Hill enters his 30’s and Tua Tagovailoa seeks a contract extension.
But all those storylines get put on the backburner as we look towards this weekend’s slate of games. This weekend, we have the youngest team in NFL history to win a playoff game in the Green Bay Packers looking to take down another giant in the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, soon to be NFL rookie of the year C.J. Stroud and rookie Head Coach Demeco Ryans are taking on the other #1 seed in Baltimore. The Lions, fresh off their first playoff win in 31 years, are hosting a second playoff game with that wild Detroit crowd against a resurgent Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. And to top it off, we finish off the weekend with another round of Allen vs Mahomes – this time in Buffalo.
Before we make our picks for this weekend’s slate of games (a task that I failed miserably at last weekend), let’s take a look at the biggest storyline to watch for each matchup
Texans @ Ravens – Saturday 4:30 pm
The Houston Texans took down the Cleveland Browns with ease last weekend, as C.J. Stroud made every throw imaginable and the Texans defense pitching in with back to back pick-sixes. They’re facing a more arduous task this weekend, as the Baltimore Ravens boast an equally tough defense that is healthier coming off of a week of rest, and a much more capable offense than what the Browns were able to piece together. Stroud has already exceeded the loftiest of expectations in his first year, leading what was predicted to be a team finishing in the bottom 5 with no first round pick to a playoff victory. He and the Texans are playing with house money at this point. After last weekend’s near perfect passer rating (he would have had a perfect one if not for one measly late incompletion), everything is gravy. We’re left sitting and wondering how far he and Demeco Ryans can take this team in their first season as QB and head coach.
However, the biggest storyline in this game has to be Lamar Jackson. He’s the odds on favorite to win his second regular season MVP award after leading the team to 6 straight wins to end the season, locking up the #1 seed in the AFC in the process.
There’s no doubt this team has championship or bust aspirations, and that’s with losing J.K. Dobbins for the season and playing without Mark Andrews since week 11 (although there’s a chance he’s out there on Saturday).
However, Jackson hasn’t played in the playoffs in 3 years, and his last performance was definitely uninspiring. He only managed 14 completions on 24 attempts (58% completion rate) for 162 yards, one pick and no touchdowns in a 17 – 3 loss to the Buffalo Bills in 2020. Overall, Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs, with 3 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a 55% completion rate. So until he gets it done under the bright lights, he’ll always face doubters regarding his ability to lead a team to the Super Bowl. Jackson did rush for over 135 yards in 2 of his 4 playoff appearances, so if he can mesh his incredible ability to run the ball with his passing game, he and the Ravens are set up for success against a team that, on paper, are playing well above their heads.
A win here will not necessarily cement Jackson’s legacy, but a loss or a poor performance will certainly raise some serious questions about a quarterback who just received a 5 year $260 million extension this past offseason.
Packers @ 49ers – Saturday 8:15 pm
The quarterback matchup in this game is something even the NFL script writers couldn’t have thought of – a 7th round pick in Brock Purdy who was forced into a starting role in his rookie season and has coasted to a 17-4 record in an offense that seems like it was built for him against a former 1st round pick who is getting his first chance as a starter in the NFL after sitting behind one of the all time greats. Jordan Love has thrown 21 touchdowns and just 1 interception over his last nine games. He looks comfortable, and is constantly showing us that he was learning from Aaron Rodgers while waiting for his opportunity. His ability to launch the ball off his back foot (or with no feet on the ground on occasion) is eerily reminiscent of Rodgers in his prime. Meanwhile, Purdy has shown he can execute the offense to perfection, and is surrounded by incredible weapons that help keep him and the offense on track.
However, to me, the biggest storyline in this game is the return of Aaron Jones to this Green Bay offense. In week 1, Jones rushed 9 times for 41 yards and a touchdown and caught 2 passes for 86 yards for another score – while only playing 47% of the team’s offensive snaps as he injured his hamstring on his long reception score. He played in only 10 of the team’s next 16 games, but never surpassed 57% of the team’s offensive snaps until week 18 where he played 82% of snaps in the team’s must win game against the Bears.
Last weekend against the Cowboys, the team looked far better than their 9-8 record would indicate, and Jones was a major part of the offense up until the Packers had the game out of reach.
Jones finished with 118 yards and 3 touchdowns on 21 carries and kept the Cowboys from cheating towards the Packers young explosive receivers. He was a breath of fresh air from the slow, plodding, unproductive run game that the Packers were trying to establish with A.J. Dillon throughout the season as Jones tried to work out his hamstring issue. Jones looks fully healthy, and is a big reason the Packers offense as a whole had such an explosive performance in the wild card weekend. On this touchdown to Luke Musgrave, where he was so open that he had time to brush off the ball before strolling in for a touchdown, a lot went wrong for Dallas on defense – there was definitely a blown switch between the safety and linebacker – but look at how hard they all bite on the play action.
Jones is showing the level that this offense could have been playing at all season, and now that he looks to be fully healthy, he’s a serious threat against a strong 49ers defense. There’s no cheating against the Packers anymore – the Niners have to take this run game seriously, and hope to contain this exciting young Packers receiving group with more one on one coverage than they‘d like.
I’m not calling for an upset, as I don’t see the Packers defense containing all of the 49ers offensive weapons for a full 60 minutes, but I really think the Packers can make this a closer game than the current line would suggest. And a large part of that is thanks to the resurgence of Jones.
Bucs @ Lions – Sunday 3:00 pm
After watching the Lions-Rams game last weekend, as an Eagles fan, I was almost hoping the Birds would lose their game and not have to face the Lions this weekend. Detroit put on one of the most hard hitting, gritty performances I’ve seen in a long time.
It felt like on every 3rd play, there was a key Ram player that was slow to get up – Puka Nacua alone probably took 5 or 6 hits that would knock any normal receiver out of the game. You have to give the Lions and their coaching staff credit – they came into a poor situation with a rabid fan base that had been let down year after year and knew that the entire organization needed a major culture change in the worst way. HC Dan Campbell set the tone early with his biting kneecaps mentality, but more importantly, he surrounded himself with coaches and players that bought into it.
Last season, while the Lion’s offense was becoming one of the top units in the NFL, their defense was capital B bad. They weren’t good at any aspect of the game, and it cost the team a playoff berth.
So this past offseason, instead of panicking and trying to fix everything by grabbing a bunch of free agents and hoping they fit, they focused instead on team toughness and stopping the run. You want to beat the Lions? Go ahead and try and beat them in a shootout – they’re going to shut down your run game and get after your quarterback, meanwhile their offense is built to have explosive plays to maintain their lead. While that script obviously doesn’t come to pass every single game, their defense as a whole has taken a massive step forward this season now that they’ve built an identity of being tough to play against. They let Nacua go off for 181 receiving yards in the wild card round, but still managed to hold the Rams to just 6 points in the entire second half.
Baker Mayfield is having a resurgence in Tampa now that he’s free to be himself, and is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league – right up there with Rams QB Stafford, who had a real taste of the Lion’s defense last weekend. But Mayfield is definitely still nursing some injuries, and despite the Bucs handling of the Eagles last weekend, there was a period during the 2nd half where the Eagles defensive line was getting through to Baker, and he was absorbing some serious contact. The Lions won’t be missing tackles like the Eagles did during wildcard weekend, and this game’s biggest storyline may come down to how Tampa handles this hungry aggressive Lion’s defense.
Chiefs @ Bills – 6:30 pm
13 seconds.
You just need to say those words to any NFL fan and they immediately remember the last time these two teams matched up in the playoffs in the divisional round. It’s hard to forget 3 lead changes in the final 2 minutes, and Mahomes needing just 13 seconds to set up the game tying field goal, sending the game into overtime. The Chiefs of course won the toss, marched down the field and scored a walk off touchdown without ever handing the ball back to Josh Allen – an egregious error in the overtime rules that was immediately rectified after that game.
The Chiefs were at home for that game – this year they head to Buffalo for what looks to be another frigid game.
There’s no point trying to make a case for any other storyline – sure, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses that Mahomes has ever had, but this is one of the biggest quarterback playoff rivalries we have in the NFL.
Amazingly, this is Mahome’s first road playoff game – obviously he’s played in the Super Bowl at neutral site games, but every other one of his matchups have been in Kansas City. Much has been talked about the team’s offensive decline this year – Kelce is showing signs of slowing down and their receiving corps outside of Rashee Rice is almost an embarrassment. Their tackles have also struggled, with Donovan Smith coming in as the highest ranked tackle on the team at 63rd out of 83 eligible players. Jawaan Taylor, who was their big free agent acquisition, has hurt the team as much as he’s helped, leading the league with 17 penalties during the regular season. You cannot doubt Mahomes’ ability to create magic out of nothing – he’s done it time and time again – but this year’s matchup has some serious questions if he has the weapons to keep up with the Bills offense.
Josh Allen is 0-2 in the playoffs against Mahomes (3-3 overall, including a 20-17 victory in week 14), and as competitive as he is, you know that’s something he’s desperate to change. In those two playoff games, Allen has thrown 6 touchdown passes and just one interception, so the losses are not solely on him.
The Bills are hot, entering this game with a 6 game winning streak, and had no problem disposing of the Steelers last weekend in poor weather conditions. With a home crowd behind them, and an offense that seems to be able to rely on a run game more than they have in the past, is this the year Allen will exercise his Chiefs playoff demon? Or is there still more Mahomes magic left for us to witness?
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.