UFC Vegas 83: Song vs Gutierrez – 12.9.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 83: Song vs Gutierrez. We arrive this weekend back at The Apex in Las Vegas for another slate of exciting fights. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 293-190-6 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 312-171-6 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-8-2023 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 7:30pm EST
Rayanne Amanda -155 vs Talita Alencar +130
- Anthony: The card today begins with a fight at women’s strawweight between Rayanne Amanda and Talita Alencar. This is the UFC debut for both fighters who have had quite different paths into the promotion. Alencar is a IBJJF champion with years of experience in and out of the gi. She showcased an ability to get fights down to the mat during her appearance in Dana White’s Contender Series. Alencar has still not faced any great competition and Amanda will challenge her while these two are on their feet. Amanda is the younger fighter with more professional experience and a resume stacked with far bigger names. Nothing has really impressed me in studying her prior fights but I would assess her to have the edge for as long as this fight is on the feet. Her grappling is serviceable without doubt but I do think Alencar’s is significantly better. For that reason I will take a chance on the underdog in this fight. Talita Alencar by Decision
- Nick: Rayanne Amanda will be making her UFC debut here, on a three-fight win streak as the Invicta FC Atomweight Champion. She is 14-6 professionally, and relatively well-rounded as a 28-year old debutant. She has excellent cardio and fights at a consistent pace keeping pressure on her opponents. Her striking is solid, but she is moving up a weight class here as most of her success has come at 105 pounds. Talita Alencar will also be making her debut here, coming off a Draw on Contender Series in a competitive match-up with Stephanie Luciano. Alencar is a credentialed grappler who has scored a submission in three of her four professional victories. In many ways this is a striker vs. grappler match-up. Rayanne Amanda should have a considerable advantage on the feet and Alencar is very live to find a submission if this fight hits the mat. This is a relatively low level match-up which makes this a tough fight to call. I’ll back the more well-rounded Amanda to mostly keep this one standing and win on the feet. Rayanne Amanda by Decision
Tatsuro Taira -650 vs Carlos Hernandez +470
- Anthony: Next is a flyweight contest with Carlos Hernandez taking on the undefeated Tatsuro Taira. Taira is a very fundamentally sound fighter with great wrestling and jiu jitsu. He is oftentimes effective bringing opponents to the mat thanks to powerful throws and upper body takedowns. Hernandez has been taken down a lot in his UFC tenure and I expect Taira to work his grappling against him today. The game plan for beating Hernandez has been laid out clearly by Allan Nascimento who submitted him just three minutes into their bout earlier this year. His jiu jitsu pales in comparison to that of Taira who is a legitimate blackbelt. Taira is not the most powerful or aggressive but he also won’t make the tactical errors that many of his young peers do. He should cruise to victory in this matchup by keeping Hernandez constantly defending. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Tatsuro Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He’s only twenty-three years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level wrestling and BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently securing a convincing decision win over a tough out in Egar Chairez. Herndandez is primarily a striker. He has excellent footwork, a high guard, and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. His defensive grappling continues to improve, and he’s done fairly well at the UFC level securing a 2-1 record since he made his debut. Hernandez does represent a step up in competition for Taira here, but he has a bad habit of giving up his back when he works his way back to his feet. Herndandez has a 65 percent takedown defense in the UFC and Taira averages nearly 2.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes. The line has gotten completely out of hand, but Taira is the side here. I expect he should secure the takedowns he needs until he works Hernandez for a finish. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission
Luana Santos -155 vs Stephanie Egger +130
- Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight fight between Stephanie Egger and Luana Santos. The only fighter to miss weight on Friday was Santos who came in a full three pounds heavy. I do think this is a low level piece of matchmaking but if Santos is to have any career longevity in the promotion I feel like this is a fight she will win. Egger now makes the walk at 35 years old coming off a loss this past spring. She still can utilize judo to good effect against smaller opponents but I see Santos having a slight edge grappling here in the matchup against Egger today. A large portion of Egger’s best attacks come from positions where she can at least attempt sweeps or leverage for position on an arm. Santos has the better top pressure grappling and if these two are rolling on the mat I imagine Santos is the one in control of things. Santos has also proven to be dangerous on the feet while Egger offers little more than a big overhand right. I do not recommend betting on this matchup but the pick for me is going to be Santos. Luana Santos by Decision
- Nick: Luana Santos is coming off an impressive knockout win in her UFC debut where she scored a quick knockout of Juliana Miller. She is 6-1 professionally, and while her skills are still far from refined, she is much more polished as a fighter than one might expect. Her strikes are far from powerful, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. She’s primarily a grappler with three of her six professional wins coming via submission. Egger’s resume in MMA leaves a lot to be desired, but she’s a decorated black belt in Judo with a win over Ronda Rousey and several other highly regarded judo tournament scalps to her name. She’s a strong grappler in the clinch, she does a good job grinding on her opponents up against the cage and most of her success comes in closing the distance and neutralizing her opponents’ offensive weapons. This is another tough one to call as these are two fighters with similar strengths. I slightly prefer Santos here as the younger and more athletic fighter of the two. Luana Santos by Decision
Melquizael Costa -250 vs Steve Garcia +200
- Anthony: Next is a lightweight fight with Steve Garcia taking on Melquizael Costa. This fight had originally been scheduled to go off last weekend until Garcia had fallen ill. Now we get this bout only seven days later with an extra ten pound allowance for both fighters. I am expecting a great showing from both given the less stressful weight cut and prolonged prep time. Garcia is a solid fighter who thrives when he can really get his boxing going. It has been a productive year for him winning two straight fights by knockout. I think while Garcia has an advantage here in terms of his pure strength, Costa is the better technical striker and much more dangerous. Costa not only throws meaningful attacks with steady volume, but also evades opponent strike attempts at a very high clip. This kid has tremendous Fight IQ and a calm disposition even when put into bad positions. While Costa does have a grappling edge over Garcia I do not expect him to pursue takedowns in this spot. These two are very likely going to collide on the feet with the result being a knockout one way or another. Melquizael Costa by Round Two KO
- Nick: Melquizael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he does leave a lot of openings to be countered. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He’s coming off an impressive decision win over a tough out in Austin Lingo. He is 20-6 professionally, and at 27-years old it’s safe to expect we’ll continue to see him improve fight to fight. Steve Garcia is a decent striker with surprising power for his frame. He is far from technical on the feet, but he can eat a punch and keep pushing forward as he does a good job keeping volume on his opponents. He’s a decent grappler, but he’s certainly more content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s coming off back to back wins via KO, but this match-up with Costa certainly represents a step up in competition for him here. Costa’s kill-or-be-killed style makes this a volatile match-up, but I do expect he’ll dictate the pace and he should have a considerable speed advantage. The line is wide, but I see Costa as the rightful favorite. He should be competitive on the feet and very dangerous if he can secure a takedown here. Melquizael Costa by Round Two Submission
Hyun Sung Park -650 vs Shannon Ross +470
- Anthony: This is a bout at flyweight between Shannon Ross and Hyun Sung Park. While this fight certainly seems more competitive than the closing odds suggest, Ross is somebody you simply cannot trust with your money. Both previous octagon appearances saw Ross laid out in under a minute. It is a recipe for disaster cutting to 125 pounds now nearing age 35. Park is undefeated and drawing into Ross as a springboard for his career. I do not think too highly of the Korean prospect but Park does have good fundamentals and enough accuracy striking to hurt Shannon Ross. Park has been known to do good work with his grappling but I’d much rather see him let the hands go here against the chinny Australian. Ross has the skills to compete with this level of competition but unfortunately he can’t take a punch. Hyun Sung Park by Round One KO
- Nick: Hyun Sung Park is coming off a win in the finals of the Road to UFC tournament at 125 pounds. He has surprising power for his frame. He’s unconventional in his approach to striking, but he’s very athletic and has a decent understanding of angles offensively. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponent and when he enters the pocket he does so with conviction. He seems to have solid offensive grappling ability with a decent understanding of BJJ, and he doesn’t settle on his back if his opponents take him down. At 28 years-old he’s still developing his skills, but at 8-0 he does have upside as a prospect. Ross is an aggressive fighter that throws a lot of volume on the feet. Most of his success has come from outpacing his opponents, forcing them to fold after forcing them into lengthy brawls. He is coming off three straight losses under the UFC banner, having been finished in each of his fights. It’s surprising to see Ross still on the roster, so one could infer he’s being used as a stepping stone here to boost the outlook for a prospect like Park. It doesn’t feel good backing Park as this big of a favorite against anyone, but Ross is not a UFC level fighter. Hyun Sung Park by Round One KO
Kevin Jousset -170 vs Song Kenan +145
- Anthony: The featured bout is a good one at welterweight with Kevin Jousset facing Song Kenan. Stylistically I am expecting this fight to play out similar to Kenan’s scrap with the undefeated Ian Garry. Jousset is a hard hitting kickboxer who fights in a similar style to Garry with quick movements and rather porous defense. Longer and taller welterweights seem to give Kenan trouble as will likely be the case again here tonight. Song Kenan marches forward and often engages a bit at boxing range with his opponents. Jousset is quicker on the trigger than Kenan and likely holds the edge in these exchanges on the feet. I will be interested to see how grappling exchanges play out in this fight as Jousset is rather slick with his jiu jitsu. Kenan has defended 62 percent of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Don’t be surprised to see either guy score a knockout in this one. Kevin Jousset by Decision
- Nick: Kevin Jousset is coming off a win in his UFC debut, which came via submission over Kiefer Crosbie. The former HEX Welterweight and Middleweight Champion, he is a somewhat highly regarded prospect training out of City Kickboxing. He prefers to stand and exchange on his feet. He’s a decent grappler, but most of his success has come through striking at range and then mixing in elbows when closing distance. Kenan Song has Knockout power, but he doesn’t throw much in terms of volume. Nine of his twenty wins have come via KO. He was more aggressive in his most recent fight back in August, his first win since 2020. He gave a great showing of himself in that decision, pulling a convincing upset as a +250 underdog. Jousset has been on a decent run, but he is hittable in exchanges and he really hasn’t faced any competition near the level of Kenan. I like the underdog in this one. Song Kenan by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Jun Yong Park -185 vs Andre Muniz +150
- Anthony: The main card opens with a fight at middleweight between Andre Muniz and Jun Yong Park. Perhaps Park deserves more respect than what I have given him as he enters this bout on a four fight winning streak. He has displayed a very well rounded skill set but the best attribute for Park is by far his grappling. Now Park has finished three straight opponents via rear naked choke after asserting dominance over each on the mat. He is durable, consistent and conservative while striking. I do favor Park here in a stand up bout but one would figure he looks to engage Muniz on the mat where he has found the most success. While Park can perhaps control Muniz in this spot I do not like his changes rolling with a world class jiu jitsu black belt. This is a spot I will be value betting Muniz in hopes that he can land a submission. Muniz looks to be in great physical shape for this fight. I expect him to overpower Park here and snatch up an arm or a leg. Andre Muniz by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Park is somewhat slow and plodding on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. He is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded as he averages more than two successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s mostly known for his durability, but he does sometimes leave himself open to be countered in exchanges. He has won seven of his last eight fights under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against another tough opponent in Andre Muniz. Andre Muniz has extremely advanced BJJ and he’s one of the better grapplers there are in the division. Fifteen of Muniz’ twenty-three professional victories have come by way of submission. His striking continues to show improvements, but he telegraphs his more powerful shots. He is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, and he’s been developing a reputation as an extremely inconsistent performer. Muniz will be live for an early submission here, but I expect Park can stay safe and then weaponize his cardio as he starts to take over. Muniz is dangerous when he’s at his best, but I see Park as the rightful favorite as he’s the much better striker with better durability and cardio. Jun Yong Park by Round Two KO
Tim Elliott -150 vs Sumudaerji +125
- Anthony: Next we have a bout between Tim Elliott and Sumudaerji. This booking comes on very short notice after Sumudaerji had originally been slated to face off with Allan Nascimento. Both flyweights weighed in here at 136 pounds, adding an interesting dynamic to the fight. Elliott is somebody I trust to fight a hard fifteen minutes even coming off of the couch. He is known not only for his awkward fighting style but also a pace and pressure that normally causes opponents to melt. Generally I expect Elliott to be stronger and more efficient at this weight. Sumudaerji will hit harder with the extra weight allowance and it would not shock me to see Elliott get slept. However, my pick will be Elliott in this matchup expecting him to fight a more complete bout. Seeing Elliott favored is not too surprising given how Sumudaerji lost his most recent matchup. Fight of the Night is an honor Elliott knows well and a situation where we have seen Sumudaerji melt before. Tim Elliott by Decision
- Nick: Tim Elliot, taking this fight on short notice, is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. He starts fights like he is shot out of a cannon, but he can be susceptible to making mistakes at times via his overaggressive nature. He’s an effective grappler with a solid wrestling base. He’s excellent in scrambles and while his striking is far from conventional he’s effective as his awkward style makes him difficult for his opponents to read. Sumudaerji is primarily a striker. He keeps a wide and open stance, and his outstanding speed and footwork make him a tough target for any opponent on the counter. His power is solid, but his outstanding volume and counter striking ability are his greatest strengths. By most accounts, this is a classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Mudaerji is much better than Elliott on the feet, but Elliott has a significant grappling advantage on the mat. Elliott’s best bet here would be to try to take this fight to the mat, control position and then grind out a Submission. He’s going to be in serious danger whenever this fight is standing, but he should be able to close distance and he’ll be very live for a submission if he can score a takedown early. This is a low confidence play as I’m not confident in Elliott’s fight IQ, but he has the clearest path to victory here. Tim Elliott by Round Two Submission
Nasrat Haqparast -190 vs Jamie Mullarkey +155
- Anthony: This should be a fun lightweight matchup between Nasrat Haqparast and Jamie Mullarkey. It concludes what has been a busy year for Mullarkey as he enters 2-1 thus far in 2023. That loss came in a stunner against Muhammad Naimov that saw Mullareky caught clean with a hook. I worry about Mullarkey eating clean shots from Haqparast here as these two engage at boxing range. Mullarkey will want to make this fight dirty and really pour on the pressure to disrupt Haqparast. The much better boxing will come from the Haqparast side, landing the more extensive combinations and keeping his head off of the center line. I find Haqparast to be a bit more durable than Mullarkey and easy to rely upon in rounds two and round three. I find it likely to be a fight that goes to decision despite having a knockdown and several thrilling moments. Haqparast will be the more accurate striker and likely connect with better volume. I think he has had the better camp and holds a significant speed advantage over Mullarkey. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision
- Nick: Haqparast is a technical striker who fights well at range. He lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he defends more than 64 percent of the strikes thrown against him. He was once regarded as a top prospect at 155, but it has taken him some time to build momentum. He’s coming off back-to-back wins, but the match-up with Mullarkey represents a step up in competition for him here. Jamie Mullarkey is a well-rounded brawler, who has consistently shown his toughness and durability. He is more than willing to eat punches to throw them and while he leaves openings to be countered at times, he’s dangerous everywhere. Mullarkey has won five of his last seven fights under the UFC banner, including a career-best win over Michael Johnson in July of 2022. It was a close fight and a controversial decision, but a solid barometer for where Mullarkey stands at this point in his career. This fight should play out closer than the line indicates, but I’m siding with Haqparast as the better technical boxer. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision
Khalil Rountree -200 vs Anthony Smith +160
- Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at light heavyweight between Khalil Rountree and Anthony Smith. It is an interesting clash between hopefuls in the division coming together on short notice. Rountree was originally slated to face Azamat Murzakanov the first week of December. It seems he has really come into his own winning four fights in a row as he makes the walk tonight. Rountree has been picking apart very high level opponents and putting away most competition. He throws with intent precise muay thai attacks and heavy leg kicks that will certainly work to great effect against Smith. The lower half has always been a vulnerable target for Lionheart. Rountree may struggle early fighting through the jab of Smith but I see things opening up for him as this fight goes late. Smith is starting to deteriorate a bit with 55 pro fights in the rearview. With how hard Rountree tends to hit I do not see Smith surviving a kickboxing match. It feels like he will need to secure takedowns and grapple to beat Rountree in this spot. Khalil Rountree by Round Three KO
- Nick: Rountree is a talented Muay-Thai striker with extremely powerful kicks. He works excellent in the clinch, but he’s sometimes overly conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. Rountree is a frustrating fighter to back as he’s usually very volatile. He can look like a complete world beater on any given night, but on occasion he seems like he has zero interest in fighting. Smith has shown outstanding cardio, and even in his recent losses he has shown excellent durability. Even when he’s getting crushed, he is difficult or impossible to put away. He is certainly in the twilight of his career at 35-years old, but he’s coming off a solid win over Ryan Spann and he’s still a tough out for the majority of this division. He’s taking this fight on short notice, but he has indicated he’s in shape and has been consistently training. If Rountree is in peak form here, he should secure a convincing win. However, if Smith can survive early there’s a good chance he can secure a takedown and find a finish on the mat. This is an extremely volatile match-up, but I do see Rountree as the rightful favorite. He should be strong enough to keep this fight standing where his power should help him pull away. Khalil Rountree by Round Two KO
Song Yadong -380 vs Chris Gutierrez +300
- Anthony: The main event is a compelling fight at bantamweight between contenders Chris Gutierrez and Song Yadong. This was going to be a great showcase for Song Yadong with the event today originally booked to take place in Shanghai today. He is coming off a career best performance in his last time out against Ricky Simon. Not many guys in this division seem to hit with the sting that Yadong tends to. He has long been a staple of Team Alpha Male and certainly has great skills in all areas of the fight. I consider Yadong more precise and steady than Gutierrez but these odds still seem too wide for my liking. It is a stylistic match that Gutierrez should welcome, exchanging strikes and building as the bout goes late. Gutierrez’ striking differential is far better than that of Yadong, outlanding opponents by more than 2.2 significant strikes a minute. He is more effective with his kicks than Yadong and just as effective a boxer. I have been a bit underwhelmed by Gutierrez’ most recent showings but he has to be the value side of this main event. Yadong has more experience fighting five rounds compared to Chris but I have seen nothing that makes me worried about his cardio. These two will fight a competitive five rounds. Chris Gutierrez by Decision
- Nick: Song Yadong has serious power in his strikes with nine of his twenty professional wins coming by way of knockout. He’s an effective striker that does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow the momentum of his opponents. Primarily a striker, we have seen Yadong continue to improve on his grappling ability. These improvements are likely a result of the fact he’s been training out of Team Alpha Male (a camp loaded with talented wrestlers). He’s coming off a career best win over a tough out in Ricky Simons, and he carries a lot of momentum into this match-up, which was originally scheduled to take place in front of a favorable crowd in Singapore. Chris Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than half of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 8-1-1 across his last ten fights, most recently securing a win via decision over Alatengheili. Guiterrez’s leg kicks make him dangerous against anyone, but Yadong should be a step ahead no matter where this one goes. He’s much quicker, more athletic, and he’s been taking on a much tougher level of opponent compared to Guitierrez. I expect Yadong to check kicks early and then take Guiterrez out in the middle rounds. Song Yadong by Round Three KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com