UFC 296 Full Card Analysis

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington – 12.16.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington. An exciting year of fights concludes tonight in Las Vegas with a stacked event on pay-per-view. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 302-192-6 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 319-175-6 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-15-2023 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Martin Buday -120 vs Shamil Gaziev +100

Anthony: The card begins with a matchup between heavyweights Shamil Gaziev and Martin Buday. While it has not been pretty, Buday is undefeated since joining the UFC. He currently sits inside the top fifteen rankings and I find him rather reliable in terms of his game plan and approach to each fight. Buday will oftentimes use his tremendous size and grappling acumen to wear on opponents. I like the forward pressure that he employs and the consistent output of Buday, even if not every punch is landing with fight-ending intentions. Most opponents fail to match Buday’s output and struggle to keep his weight off of them in rounds two and three. Gaziev is an intriguing prospect but this feels like a tall task in his debut. The undefeated fighter has found a lot of success fighting professionally against less than stellar competition. Gaziev tends to do his best work when effectively grappling opponents and I find it hard to imagine he executes that gameplan here today. Buday defends takedowns well and I could see him ending up in a dominant position if Gaziev does indeed look to drag him to the mat. Certainly I consider this a volatile matchup on paper but at the current odds my money is on Buday. In my opinion, we have already seen him beat better competition than this. Martin Buday by Decision
Nick: Martin Buday is primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability, but he is also totally content to play out fights at striking range. He has solid footwork and decent power for his frame, but he is sometimes slow and plodding and it seems he’s often too content to wait for fights to come to him. He is 4-0 in the UFC and 13-1 professionally, but he’s another fighter that has yet to really be tested extensively against top level competition. Shamil Gaziev will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via first round submission over Greg Velasco. He is undefeated professionally at 11-0, and all ten of those wins have come via finish. He’s relatively well-rounded with one shot KO power, a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ. That being said he sometimes leaves himself there to be countered on the feet, he’s far from athletic, and his cardio seems to be a major weakness if his fights are extended. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play, but I’m siding with Buday here. Gaziev will be live for an early finish, but I expect Buday can weaponize his cardio and take him out after a few dangerous exchanges early. Martin Buday by Round Two KO

Andre Fili -165 vs Lucas Almeida +140

Anthony: Next on the card is a fight at featherweight between Andre Fili and Lucas Almeida. The odds on this bout have narrowed over the course of fight week and yet I still feel that Fili is being a bit overvalued in what I consider a tough fight for him. Fili has fought 20 times before in the UFC but the performances out of him more recently aren’t the most complete. Fili is hittable and not as effective wrestling at this stage of his career as had been the case earlier. His only wins in the past four years have also come by way of split decision. Fili probably will get the nod if this fight sees the scorecards but otherwise Almeida has a great chance of putting his man away. Almeida should commit to landing strikes here on Fili as these two engage with some distance between them. Almeida has hopefully corrected his takedown defense as grappling had been an issue for him in prior fights. Lucas Almeida by Round Two KO
Nick: Andre Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. He is 14-2 professionally and 1-1 in the UFC. He’s relatively well-rounded, with surprising power for his frame. He’s also a dangerous BJJ player and he’s shown tremendous durability. Fili will be the better technical striker in this match-up, but Almeida likely has a power and durability advantage. That being said, I do see Fili as the rightful favorite as he has a very clear path to victory if he chooses to grapple here. Almeida is live for an upset KO, but that seems to be his only path to victory. I expect Fili to secure a late finish on the back of a wrestling heavy game plan. Andre Fili by Round Three KO

Tagir Ulanbekov -175 vs Cody Durden +150

Anthony: This should be a good flyweight scrap with Cody Durden set to face Tagir Ulanbekov. Durden enters the bout on a four-fight winning streak. While known largely for his durability and high pace, he has evolved as an athlete this year and fought with much better decision making. He is converting takedowns at a higher rate and controlling position on the mat better than ever. I expect Durden to trade some blows with Ulanbekov here but the game plan is to grapple. Ulanbekov has the better technical striking of these two and a three-inch reach advantage. He will want to keep distance with Durden as best as he can to force sloppier entries into the pocket. Ulanbekov has a great series of chokes at his disposal including a devastating guillotine. Durden will need to be careful presenting his neck here when shooting or I expect him to be choked out. If it is instead a fight that goes the full fifteen minutes, Durden has a great chance of winning. I will be betting on Durden this weekend as a small underdog. Cody Durden by Decision
Nick: Tagir Ulanbekov is a former training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov and one of the more hyped prospects we have right now at flyweight. As a former Combat Sambo World Champion he’s an excellent grappler, but he also does a good job using his length to succeed on the feet. He sometimes struggles to keep his opponents grounded once he does take them down, but he’s relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and usually does an excellent job of chain-wrestling to control the pace of his fights. Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in most matchups we see him try to score takedowns to control position and grind out wins on the scorecards. He’s coming off four straight wins under the UFC banner, carrying a lot of momentum into this match-up. Ulanbekov will have a reach advantage here and he’s the more dynamic striker. However, I’m going to take a shot on Durden as the underdog. I expect he’ll have better cardio here and he should be able to steal this fight in the second and third. I’m concerned he could run into an Ulanbekov submission, but if he doesn’t, he should do enough to pull off a decision. Cody Durden by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Casey O’Neill -190 vs Ariane Lipski +160

Anthony: The preliminary card begins with a fight between Ariane Lipski and Casey O’Neill. This is the first appearance for O’Neill after tarnishing her undefeated record this summer. Jennifer Maia beat O’Neill in what was a true brawl that saw nearly 300 strikes landed. I find this matchup to be rather telling in terms of O’Neill and her career trajectory. A win would certainly get her back on a path north in the rankings as a new winning streak begins. While there are several positions Lipski can take in this fight I think she wants to engage O’Neill standing once again. Lipski does good work in the clinch but generally gets hit too often while striking. O’Neill could likely win a brawl here today although I would much rather her work Lipski to the mat. Grappling would be the path of least resistance for O’Neill if she is perhaps able to ground Lipski. O’Neill has great ground and pound and I could see her winning via stoppage in this one. Casey O’Neill by Round Three KO
Nick: Casey O’Neill has trained at excellent camps in Tiger Muay Thai, 10th Planet BJJ, and most recently Xtreme Couture. She’s 9-1 professionally and coming off the first loss of her career, a hard fought decision to Jennifer Maia. O’Neill’s striking is certainly far from refined, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. Her most applaudable asset is her powerful wrestling base and her overall strength at 125 pounds. Lipski is an effective muay thai striker, but defensively she leaves a lot to be desired. She is coming off impressive wins over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto, but she has been mostly inconsistent for the extent of her UFC tenure. Lipski is athletic and occasionally she looks excellent in the cage. She’s decent everywhere, but she doesn’t really merge her grappling and striking well. She telegraphs many of her strikes, and she can only find success on the mat if she lucks into a favorable position. These are two young and improving fighters and the line feels too wide here, but I see O’Neill as the rightful favorite as she should be able to score the takedowns she needs to hand Lipski a loss. Casey O’Neill by Decision

Cody Garbrandt -190 vs Brian Kelleher +160

Anthony: This will be a fight at bantamweight between Cody Garbrandt and Brian Kelleher. It is a bit of a throwback booking with both men longtime veterans in this sport. The former champion Garbrandt made a splash in his last appearance, winning for just the second time since 2016. Despite only being 32 years old, Garbrandt has a lot of wear on his body and certainly a chin that has already taken some punishment. He is still very fast for his age, I just worry about him eating a clean shot from anybody. If nothing else Kelleher has a bomb in his overhand and the ability to end nights early at bantamweight. It would not surprise me to see him slump Cody, but Kelleher will likely be fighting from behind. I do not like how Kelleher has responded to getting hit as of late and I feel his career is even closer to an end than Garbrandt’s. I think reaction time will be what decides this fight. Kelleher is going to get stuck eating a lot of Cody’s combinations and unless he lands an early bomb I do not like his chances of winning. Cody Garbrandt by Decision
Nick: Brian Kelleher’s greatest strengths are his KO Power and his outstanding guillotine choke. While he can put opponents away with his hands, he can be over-aggressive at times and as a result he leaves himself open to counters. He’s fun to watch because he’s willing to take damage, but against advanced strikers he often finds himself on the wrong end of exchanges. Kelleher has been out of action since June of 2022, recovering from a plethora of injuries and surgeries. Cody Garbrandt, the former bantamweight champion, has been struggling to get back in the rankings. His chin and durability seem to have mostly dissolved, as he’s lost five of his last seven fights. At his best, Garbrandt is a highly technical striker who can frustrate his opponents with precision and speed. He has a decent wrestling base as a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, and he’s also shown to have surprising power for his limited frame. Garbrandt has had more success against top-level competition and as long as his chin holds up here this feels like his fight to lose. He’s the more aggressive striker with better head movement and footwork. I also expect he can lean on his grappling at opportune times if he needs to. That being said, Kelleher is a very dangerous underdog. This is a low confidence play, but I expect Garbrandt can edge it out. Cody Garbrandt by Decision

Irene Aldana -190 vs Karol Rosa +160

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Irene Aldana and Karol Rosa. I found this bout to be one of the toughest on today’s card to call. There is clearly some value on the Rosa side here after what was a solid showing in her most recent performance. Rosa has improved in her past few UFC bouts while Aldana is not adding as much to her game at the age of 35. She last fought in June, losing to Amanda Nunes. That bout saw Aldana grounded on 6 of 13 takedown attempts and controlled for a full seven minutes. She is a far better striker than Rosa but not nearly as talented when fights hit the mat. I will be interested to see if Rosa is able to secure multiple takedowns in this spot or if Aldana’s boxing will stop her from trying. It is not a confident selection for me but I do lean very slightly the way of the Mexican. Irene Aldana by Decision
Nick: Irene Aldana has solid boxing ability, she throws meaningful shots, and her combinations are amongst the most effective in the division. She lands more than five significant strikes per minute, and she has won four of her last six fights under the UFC banner. She most recently fell in a title fight to Amanda Nunes, but Nunes is one of the greatest of all time when the conversation is women’s mixed martial arts. While she was mostly dominated in that fight, her durability and cardio did allow her to survive until the scorecards. Karol Rosa has landed nearly six strikes per minute in the UFC, and she also averages just under 1.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes. She is a well-rounded fighter, coming off a solid win over a tough out in Yana Santos. Rosa has solid footwork and she does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. Aldana is going to be the bigger fighter and the much better striker here. However, Rosa will have a considerable grappling advantage. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on the superior grappler as the underdog. It is also notable that Aldana was the last fighter to weigh-in on Friday, it seems she struggles with her weight cut. Karol Rosa by Decision

Dustin Jacoby -270 vs Alonzo Menifield +220

Anthony: The featured prelim is a light heavyweight fight with Dustin Jacoby set to face Alonzo Menifield. Jacoby is somebody that I often bet on and like again here in the evening. He is coming off an impressive knockout win his last time out facing Kennedy Nzechukwu. Jacoby is a skilled kickboxer with great speed for the 205 pound division. Oftentimes Jacoby will take a quick lead against opponents, landing crisp strikes early before they may even establish a rhythm. I find him easy to trust with such solid striking defense and an expert understanding of distance. Menifield is far less technically skilled than Jacoby and more likely to make pivotal mistakes. He has bad tendencies of rushing into the pocket and sometimes trying too desperately to get opponents down on to the mat. It will be a compelling fight if Menifield can get Jacoby cliched early but otherwise I expect to see one-way traffic with these two duking it out on the feet. Dustin Jacoby by Round Two KO
Nick: Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He is coming off an impressive win via KO over Kennedy Nzechukwu, and there is no denying he’s still a very tough out for the back-half of the top-15 at light heavyweight. Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for the division and thirteen of his fourteen professional wins have come via finish within two rounds. He has not seen much in terms of quality competition, but he’s shown tremendous power and you can see he’s improving in pretty much every other aspect of his game. Menifield recently left one of the best gyms in the game in Fortis MMA. He’s coming off a career-best win over a solid prospect in Jimmy Crute, but this match-up with Jacoby undeniably represents a step up in competition for him here. Menifield is always live for an upset via KO, but Jacoby is the better overall fighter and I expect he can win this fight at range. Menifield will be dangerous early, but as this fight wears on I expect Jacoby’s superior skill set to shine through. Dustin Jacoby by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Bryce Mitchell -220 vs Josh Emmett +180

Anthony: The main card will open with a featherweight bout between Bryce Mitchell and Josh Emmett. Mitchell steps in on rather short notice here to fill in for the injured Giga Chikadze. Mitchell poses a much different threat than Chikadze in terms of the style fight Emmett should be expecting. He is a grappler before anything else, averaging 3.51 takedowns landed in every UFC fight. The most recent win for Mitchell was a complete performance that did give me confidence backing him once again. Emmett meanwhile has lost two bouts in a row and looked less than stellar in both showings. He is a guy that relies heavily on his power and tends to fade if unable to place a knockout blow. Emmett defends just 46 percent of opponent takedown attempts. It will be difficult for him to keep standing today against Mitchell and for that reason I won’t be picking him. Mitchell has been touched up on the feet in the past but I do not expect Emmett to find that opportunity presented. Mitchell should wrestle his way to another victory here. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
Nick: Bryce Mitchell is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the world at featherweight. He comes into this fight at 17-1, coming off a solid decision win over a tough out in Dan Ige. Nine of his seventeen professional wins have come via submission. His striking continues to improve, but there is no denying his game plan is almost always to wrestle and grapple both early and often. Josh Emmett is mostly known for his tremendous KO power on the feet, but he’s also a decent grappler with a powerful wrestling base and technically sound takedown entries. He likes to switch stances when he’s striking. He can be fairly plodding and he telegraphs many of his shots, but he has true one-shot power in both of his hands. I see Emmett as the better technical striker, the more powerful striker, and the better overall technician on the feet. That being said, Mitchell’s advantages on the mat certainly warrant him being the favorite here. Emmett has just a 46 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Even on short notice, I expect Mitchell can score the takedowns he needs to avoid Emmett’s power and pull off a decision. Bryce Mitchell by Decision

Paddy Pimblett -310 vs Tony Ferguson +240

Anthony: Next we have a fun booking at lightweight between Tony Ferguson and Paddy the Baddy Pimblett. This bout is rather pivotal in the career matchmaking for both men moving forward. Ferguson has now lost six fights in a row and likely does not appear in the octagon again if he were to drop another. Now nearly 40, Ferguson is not fighting like the El Cucuy of old. He is much more labored in his movements and less urgent to fight out of bottom position than had been the case in Tony’s early career. Pimblett is the rightful favorite in this spot with youth and many other factors on his side. However, Pimblett does seem difficult to trust at -300 off his most recent showing. Pimblett barely beat Jared Gordon in his last fight, one that many considered a terrible decision. He should show up here today with much better focus and a gameplan ready to execute against the former Interim champion. Pimblett should utilize his jiu jitsu black belt today and win this fight convincingly against the aged vet. I think the matchmakers knew what they were doing when they got this fight made. Paddy Pimblett by Round Three Submission
Nick: Paddy Pimblett is primarily a grappler, and his greatest advantage is certainly his highly aggressive and dangerous style. He hunts for submissions from almost any position. We’ve even seen him score a win via Flying Triangle earlier in his career. His BJJ is certainly his greatest strength, but we’ve seen consistent improvement in his striking from fight to fight. The biggest knock on Pimblett are the holes in his striking defense. He keeps his chin high in exchanges and we’ve seen him clipped, more than once, against a relatively low level of opponent. Pimblett is undefeated in the UFC, but he’s coming off a controversial decision in which the majority of the public felt he was wrongfully gifted a win over Jared Gordon. Pimblett has been out for over a year, recovering from multiple injuries and surgeries. It’s tough to know which version of him will show up in this fight, but it seems likely he will have made improvements given his questionable performance against Gordon. Tony Ferguson used to be one of the more dangerous pound-for-pound fighters on the entire roster. He became known for his devastating striking ability, vicious elbows, and excellent BJJ. He is now on a six fight losing streak and he could be on his way out of the UFC with another loss here. Ferguson seems far gone from who he was when he was in his prime. He’s still a decent wrestler with creative striking ability, but he’s much slower and his reaction time has grown delayed from what it was earlier in his prime. The line feels far too wide here, even with Ferguson on a dramatic decline. He should be the better wrestler here, but Pimblett’s BJJ is far superior at this point in their respective careers. As much as I’d like to see Ferguson win here, he seems too far gone. Paddy Pimblett by Round Two Submission

Shavkat Rakhmonov -650 vs Stephen Thompson +450

Anthony: The featured bout is a big time welterweight matchup with Shavkat Rakhmonov set to face Stephen Thompson. The undefeated Rakhmonov has a chance to ascend into the title picture with a convincing victory tonight. He has won by finish in every one of his fights, boasting 8 knockout wins and 9 wins by submission. While Rakhmonov is a monster no matter where the fight takes place, grappling will be key to securing an easy victory here. Wonderboy is coming off one of his best career showings, putting a beating on Kevin Holland. Rakhmonov and other prospects need to understand that Thompson is still a lethal striker that you cannot oblige in a kickboxing match. Rakhmonov will need to utilize strikes in the clinch and secure takedowns to look like the -650 favorite he is. Thompson is more live than the betting odds suggest. Unfortunately I do not think the distance striking and spinning attacks that worked so well against Kevin Holland will yield the same result here facing Rakhmonov. Even if a stoppage does not materialize in this spot I think Rakhmonov handles Wonderboy convincingly on the mat. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Two Submission
Nick: Stephen Thompson is past his prime, but on the feet he is still among the class of this division. He mostly fights in an open stance, using his excellent Karate style to throw off the timing of his opponents. He is light on his feet, constantly switches and generally does an excellent job circling away from danger. He manages range extremely well, and his cardio and durability are still excellent. As excellent as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired. Almost all of his professional losses have come against grapplers, which makes this a particularly difficult match-up here against Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov comes into this fight undefeated. The 29-year old Sambo specialist already has notable victories over Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Carlston Harris. He’s a very dangerous grappler on the mat with a solid wrestling base and creative BJJ. His striking looks a lot more developed than you’d normally see out of a guy so new to the UFC, but he relies on precision more than power. He’s very tall, but he has a strong judo base, effective sweep takedowns and looks sharp in the scramble as well. The one knock on Rakhmonov is that he’s hittable, but he’s shown solid durability and I expect we continue to see improvements in his defense. Thompson is the much more technically advanced striker in this match-up. However, Rakhmonov’s grappling advantage is likely to be too much for him to overcome. The line has gotten out of hand, but the path for the favorite is clear. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Two Submission

Alexandre Pantoja -190 vs Brandon Royval +160

Anthony: I am expecting fireworks here in the co-main event with Alexandre Pantoja facing Brandon Royval for the flyweight title. Pantoja won what I consider Fight of the Year in July, beating Brandon Moreno here in this very arena. That was an epic back and forth that saw Pantoja outlast Moreno and win what was truly a war. Similar to Moreno, Royval is someone Pantoja has faced and beaten already before. This fight should look similar to the first meeting in regards to Pantoja’s dominance on the mat and ability to land straight right hands. He is going to stay a step ahead of Royval in these grappling exchanges and ultimately prove himself the much better fighter with each passing round. Royval has improved drastically since the first meeting of these two but he still fights with the same spastic style. I consider Royval dependent on a finish to win this bout. Certainly I consider Royval capable of stopping Pantoja. However, I do not trust Royval’s decision making and pacing in what will likely play out less like a war and more like a chess match. Pantoja has proven to be a step ahead of Royval while grappling and I expect him to fight much cleaner on the feet. He may rush to take down Royval from the jump here as was his gameplan in their first meeting. Pantoja seems like a guy that could hold this title for a few defenses and I do not think Royval will be his toughest test. And Still. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Three Submission
Nick: This is an excellent match-up between two of the best flyweights in the world. Pantoja is elite pretty much everywhere. He’s outstanding on the ground and his striking is crisp and explosive. He’s coming off a title winning performance Brandon Moreno, a fight in which he leaned on his wrestling to secure the decision. He already has a win via submission over his opponent here in Brandon Royval, but both fighters have improved considerably since that fight took place back in 2021. Royval is one of the more aggressive fighters there is on the roster. He starts fights like he’s shot out of a cannon. He is well-rounded with a solid chin but his crafty BJJ and dangerous offensive grappling ability is certainly his greatest strength. He has notable wins over Kai Kara-France, Tim Elliot, and most recently Matheus Nicolau. He thrives in chaos and he’s done a good job forcing opponents to fight at his ridiculous pace. Pantoja is the more well-rounded and also the more technically sound fighter in this match-up. However, Royval’s aggressive style, toughness, and vicious finishing ability could certainly prove to be an equalizer. This is another low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on the aggressive underdog in this one. And New. Brandon Royval by Round Three KO

Leon Edwards -165 vs Colby Covington +140

Anthony: Leon Edwards looks to make defense of his welterweight title here against the challenger Colby Covington. The final fight of 2023 should be a good one with Covington poised to finally break through and earn undisputed gold. It has been nearly two years since Covington’s last octagon appearance where he put a beating on Jorge Masvidal. Inactivity has never really been an issue for Colby as he is always right back onto the pressure as soon as his next fight begins. I am a big fan of Covington’s style, aggressively marching forward and keeping his opponent reacting at all times. His cardio is better than anyone else in this division and I see him looking to set a pace here that Edwards cannot keep. While Covington uses his high volume striking effectively, there is no doubt that Edwards is the much more skilled kickboxer. Edwards will stay poised in this spot and look to knockout Covington by setting up his power strikes. Covington will have to be very cautious eating kicks from Edwards or walking into the guys’ left hand. This is a very tough fight to call but my pick has always been Covington. I think that Colby’s chain wrestling does prove to be enough to nullify the offensive output of Leon. Covington is going to be constantly scoring in this spot while Edwards looks to close the gap on total strikes landed and minutes spent in control. I could even see Colby finding a late finish in this spot if Edward’s does not have an answer for his takedowns. And New. Colby Covington by Decision
Nick: Colby Covington has been out of action since his win over Jorge Masvidal back in March of 2022. He’s one of the best wrestlers in the division, he has outstanding cardio, and high pressure fighting style has melted most of his opponents at 170 lbs. His striking has greatly improved since he made his debut, but he’s still somewhat hittable in exchanges. He does throw a lot of volume and he has shown flashes of power, but his striking is primarily a means to set up his grappling. Including his most recent victory to defend the title against Kamaru Usman, Edwards has strung together eleven consecutive wins. He’s a gifted striker that does an excellent job of moving in and out of his opponents’ range. His wrestling has undoubtedly improved over the past few years, but there is no doubt that his best chance to secure the win here is to keep this fight standing. Colby will secure takedowns early, but I expect Edwards will be able to consistently work back to his feet. Covington is certainly a live underdog, but given his long layoff and Edwards’ recent success against a similar fighter in Usman, I find myself backing the favorite. And Still. Leon Edwards by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com