We’re officially in the home stretch of the NFL fantasy season. The waiver wires are THIN. If you’ve been hoarding your FAAB budget for the entire season, it’s time to rule the waivers and start hand picking guys that you want.
Everyone should be checking their league mate’s budgets now and see who you have an advantage over.
One of the best usages of having the most FAAB left is to help you get through a tough bye week. Struggling to fill a roster spot? Wait until Saturday, drop a player you like for someone that will actually get you points this week, and then put in an aggressive waiver claim to regain the player you dropped. You’re not going to be able to cash out your extra FAAB money at the end of the season, so might as well put it to use.
As always we’ll go through the NFL position by position and try to weed out the top waiver pickups from the rest, all of whom are rostered in less than 40% of leagues on Yahoo. With the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints on bye this week, there are some important fantasy assets that will need to be replaced. Let’s dive into who you should be targeting.
Quarterbacks
Much like Sam Howell in the previous waiver wire addition article, Joshua Dobbs exceeds the 40% threshold but is still low enough that you need to be checking your leagues to see if he’s available. The bye weeks this week don’t create a huge cause for concern at quarterback, but if you’re still looking for an upgrade, Dobbs should be your number 1 target. Russel Wilson is also above 40% owned, but is in line for a shootout with the Minnesota Vikings Sunday night, so he’s a dart throw option in 2 QB or superflex leagues.
Most of the quarterbacks I would normally consider looking at in the deepest of leagues are also facing some incredibly tough matchups. Zach Wilson (7% owned) is facing Buffalo, who despite their recent struggles on defense are still giving up the 7th fewest points to quarterbacks in the league; Bryce Young (16% owned) faces the Dallas Cowboys, and Kenny Pickett (16% owned) gets a date with the Cleveland Browns. Oh, and Tyson Bagent will probably be replaced by Justin Fields this week.
All that being said, the waivers for quarterback at this point in the season is a wasteland.
Tier…4?
Aiden O’Connell – Las Vegas Raiders – Week 11 @ MIA – 5% Rostered
The only quarterback worth taking a flier on this coming week is O’Connell of the newly rejuvenated Las Vegas Raiders. He’s only owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues, and the Raiders are coming up against the high flying offense of the Miami Dolphins. This has the potential for an excellent game script for O’Connell to try and play catchup. While he’s yet to take the step as a true starting NFL quarterback, one thing is clear – he knows how to get the ball to his best players in Josh Jacobs and more importantly, Davante Adams. In O’Connell’s 3 starts, Adams has received 33 targets. And if they hope to keep the game even remotely close, O’Connell will have to rely on his stud receiver all game. There’s potential for Adams to house a few of those throws and bring O’Connell into some slight fantasy relevance.
Running Backs
Tier 1
Ty Chandler – Minnesota Vikings – Week 11 @ Den – 8% Rostered
Vikings starter Alexander Mattison was losing snaps to Cam Akers before Akers unfortunately suffered his 2nd torn achilles in his short career. The thought was that the backfield would be returned to Mattison and his incredibly inefficient 3.5 yards per carry. However, rookie Ty Chandler was actually a big factor in the teams game plan, even before Mattison left with a concussion. The fact that the Vikings trusted him enough to take a snap in the wildcat at the 2 yard line, leading to a touchdown run while Mattison was still in the game, shows how much faith they have in the young man.
There’s a strong chance that Mattison will not be cleared before their Week 11 matchup against the Broncos especially after the team re-signed Myles Gaskin to fill in a roster spot. Chandler will never be the pile-moving, between the tackles type runner, but he has elite speed and can be a poor man’s Achane if utilized properly. With Josh Dobbs running this offense effectively and a potential return of Justin Jefferson, Chandler could be a massive pickup this late in the season.
Rico Dowdle – Dallas Cowboys – Week 11 @ Car – 4% Rostered
If Tony Pollard was ever going to get a touchdown, it would have been last week against the Giants in a 49-17 shellacking. But the Cowboys let every other player on the roster score and Pollard was left with another disappointing fantasy performance. The team only has him on a franchise tag for this season, and it really seems like he isn’t performing how they expected this year. His yards per carry has dropped dramatically, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 1.
Rico Dowdle isn’t a star running back by any means, and much of the work he got was when the Cowboys were running their 2nd team offense, but he seems to fit the mold of what the Cowboys are looking to do on that side of the ball. He’s a larger back that can take the carries up the middle and open up the play action game for Dak and CeeDee Lamb. With more opportunities, especially around the goal line, Dowdle could become a sneaky good play late in the season as the weather gets colder.
Tier 2
Tyjae Spears – Tennessee Titans – Week 11 @ Jax – 39% Rostered
I still don’t know how Spears is only rostered in 39% of leagues, but here we are. He’s taking over the lead role in Tennessee from Derrick Henry, the offense looks much better as a whole with Will Levis at the helm than it did with Ryan Tannenhill, and they have a very favorable slate of fantasy playoff matchups. Grab Spears now. He will be worth the bench spot later.
Darrell Henderson Jr./Royce Freeman – Los Angeles Rams – Week 11 vs Sea – 32%/14% Rostered
With the Rams coming off of their bye week, the expectation is that Matthew Stafford will be back under center – a huge boon to the entire offense. With starter Kyren Williams not eligible to come off of IR until week 12, one (or both) of Henderson and Freeman are moved back into the flex conversation. With Stafford in the lineup, Henderson finished as the RB17 and RB19, while Freeman finished as the RB32 and RB23. If you’re projected to win your week going into Sunday, the safer bet is Henderson, as he’s gotten the majority of the work between the 20’s. Freeman has looked more explosive, so if you’re in need of a desperation high ceiling play, he could be the one to target.
Deep Stashes
Jaleel McLaughlin – Denver Broncos – Week 11 vs MIN – 24% Rostered
McLaughlin’s usage has dropped significantly from his mini breakout, but he’s still a valuable stash in deeper leagues thanks to his explosiveness. JaVonte Williams looks to be coming back to 100%, but if he gets injured again, McLaughlin will be a top 20 back in that offense. If you have the roster space, stash him now before your opponent does.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1
Demario Douglas – New England Patriots – Week 11 BYE – 36% Rostered
Considering the Patriots are entering their bye week, you’re likely able to hold off for one more week before claiming Douglas – but that will be your last chance to grab him. Despite the inept offense and quarterback issues plaguing the Patriots this season, Douglas is coming into his own as their WR1, managing to top 50 yards in his past 4 games including a 6 catch, 84 yard performance in week 10. He’s getting the targets, and while the touchdowns haven’t come yet, he’s a great late season wide receiver addition.
Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – Week 11 @ Hou – 12% Rostered
Wilson has had an up and down season after a fantastic pre-season in Arizona. But with Kyler Murray coming back and looking like his dynamic self, this is make or break time for Wilson on the year. The entire Cardinals offense is in way better hands with Murray under center, and all key playmakers will be taking a big step forward. James Conner is also on the verge of returning, and he makes defenses take the Cardinals running game seriously, opening up more passing options. Wilson might not reach the heights that he reached in August, but he is worth taking a flier on for the rest of the season.
Noah Brown – Houston Texans – Week 11 vs Ari – 25% Rostered
After one week it looked like an aberration. After two consecutive weeks, it’s starting to look like a trend. A week after establishing a new career high with 153 receiving yards against the Bucs in week 9, Brown topped that with 7 catches for 172 yards in week 10. Brown has taken advantage of the injury to Robert Woods and effectively pushed him into a WR4 role on what is becoming an explosive offense in Houston. Nico Collins is expected to be back shortly and will still command looks, but the Stroud to Brown connection is flaming hot right now. It is worth jumping on for as long as it lasts.
Tier 2
Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers – Week 11 vs LAC – 21% Rostered
Reed is still running a very limited route tree, but is actually putting up respectable numbers in an offense that is anything but. He led the Packers in receiving yards in week 10, finishing with 5 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He’s currently on pace for 85 targets which is more than respectable as a weekly flex option. Christian Watson hasn’t taken the step up into the WR1 role that many expected him to, and it is beginning to look more and more like his heroic 4 game stretch was an anomaly as opposed to a breakout. Reed is still only playing around 50% of snaps, but that seems to be enough for him to be effective on a weekly basis.
Brandin Cooks – Dallas Cowboys – Week 11 @ Car – 38% Rostered
Cooks best days are behind him, but the Cowboys offense is clicking right now and they have some easy matchups ahead. Cooks has now scored a touchdown in 3 of his last 4 games and is coming off of a 10 target, 9 catch for 173 yard performance. He looks to be well ahead of Michael Gallup in the receiver room, and with CeeDee Lamb demanding so much attention, there will always be space on the opposite side of the field. The Panthers are actually surprisingly good against wide receivers in fantasy, but the rest of the schedule offers an abundance of fantasy points to receivers – as long as McCarthy keeps this passing offense going.
Deep Stashes
Trenton Irwin – Cincinnati Bengals – Week 11 @ Bal – 8% Rostered
This is someone to keep an eye on if Tee Higgins is expected to miss more time, which is likely with the Bengals playing on Thursday night. With Higgins out in week 10, Irwin played a season high 81% of snaps and was rewarded with a touchdown. Granted, he was only targeted 4 times, (2 catches for 54 yards), but the Bengals will be in tough against a fierce Ravens defense and will need someone to step up opposite of Ja’Marr Chase on a short week.
Tight Ends
Tier 1
Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers – vs LAC – 23% Rostered
Musgrave gives the Packers big play potential down the middle of the field. He’s being underutilized and has a bad quarterback, but he has totalled 115 yards and a touchdown on just 5 catches over the past 2 games. The Chargers are one of the easiest match-ups for tight ends, so Musgrave is a strong streaming option for this week.
Bench Stash
Cade Otton – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – @ SF – 22% Rostered
Otton was a big waiver wire add after his 6 catch for 70 yard and 2 touchdown performance in week 9, but had a big letdown in week 10 with only 2 catches for 10 yards. Otton is on the field 95% of the offensive snaps, so he’s clearly their go to option at tight end. He’ll be in touch against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week, but his playoff schedule is not overly difficult. Otton might be a sneaky good pickup now that pays off when it really matters.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Christopher Michel. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.