UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski II – 10.21.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski II. One of the year’s biggest events takes place now in Abu Dhabi with a massive shake-up at the top of the card. Fans worldwide are treated once again to a bout deciding the lightweight champion and pound-for-pound best. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 260-166-4 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 273-153-4 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-20-2023 at 5pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 10:00am EST
Sharabutdin Magomedov -300 vs Bruno Silva +240
- Anthony: The card today opens with the debut of Sharabutdin Magomedov as he faces off with Bruno Silva. This is a very interesting prospect, boasting a perfect professional record with a number of other bouts in unofficial formats. He is a champion in muay thai, representing the great Bangtao gym and showcasing high level skills on the feet. His kickboxing fundamentals are excellent and Magomedov will often put full power behind his more aggressive entries. He throws heavy kicks, elbows and creative spinning attacks. Silva is a former M-1 champion that is likely to engage with Magomedov on the feet where I expect him to be outmatched. He has multiple losses by finish and after getting beaten badly by Brendan Allen in his most recent showing, I plan on continuing to fade Silva here today. He is not nearly as dynamic as Magomedov and I do not see Silva executing a game plan that keeps his chin out of harm’s way. Magomedov should showcase nicely here in what is a relatively easy debut fight. The wins Silva has earned since joining the UFC did not come over very high quality competition. Sharabutdin Magomedov by Round One KO
- Nick: Sharabutdin Magomedov will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 11-0, with ten of those wins coming via KO. He’s an explosive striker, extremely dangerous both at range and in the clinch. He’s a competent wrestler who can dominate in top position, but there is no denying the fact he is most content to stand-and-trade on the feet. Magomedov is very light on his feet. He’s constantly bouncing in the cage and while his strikes can be somewhat untraditional he fights out of a muay-thai stance. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with twenty of his twenty-three professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. At his best, Silva is very dangerous offensively. However, he’s been wildly inconsistent in the UFC which is evident by his 4-3 record within the promotion. This is a major step up in competition for Magomedov, but I do feel it’s the type of match-up he should be able to succeed in. He’s the better technical striker and he should have a considerable cardio advantage. The line feels a bit wide given the gap in experience, but Magomedov is the pick. Sharabutdin Magomedov by Round Two KO
Viktoriya Dudakova -550 vs Jinh Yu Frey +400
- Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup between Viktoriya Dudakova and Jinh Yu Frey. Dudakova missed weight by just a half pound yesterday with no additional effort to make the contracted number. I am a bit concerned with her matching Frey’s pace and volume in this matchup but otherwise it does seem like Dudakova’s fight to lose. She is much bigger than Jinh Yu Frey and stronger than the average strawweight without a doubt. Her skills have been developing far more quickly as of late and I find Dudakova rather serviceable in any area this fight may go. Her grappling offense poses a larger threat than that of Frey who seems unlikely to score successful takedowns in this match. Frey will need to win a lot of these exchanges on the feet and I doubt Dudakova allows those opportunities to open up. Her strikes will have a much larger effect on Frey than those coming back in the opposite direction. Viktoriya Dudakova by Decision
- Nick: Dudakova is 7-0 professionally and only 24-years-old. She’s decent on the feet, but most comfortable in grappling exchanges as four of her seven professional wins have come via submission. She secured a win in her UFC debut over Isleta Nunes, but Nunes’ suffered a dislocated elbow in that fight and it was called early. It seems she’s well-rounded and generally dangerous everywhere, but we have yet to see her tested extensively against top level competition. Jin Yu Frey was highly regarded coming into the UFC, but she didn’t make it into the promotion until late in her career. She’s fairly well-rounded, but most of her success has come on the mat against smaller and inferior grapplers. She is coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in career, and it seems very likely she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win in this spot. The line feels wide here as Dudakova is still somewhat untested and developing as a prospect. Still, she is very clearly the side. She should have a considerable size and strength advantage here, which is often a deciding factor in these lower-level matchups. If she can take Frey down here she should dominate. Viktoriya Dudakova by Round One Submission
Nathaniel Wood -320 vs Muhammad Naimov +260
- Anthony: Next is a featherweight matchup with Nathaniel Wood taking on Muhammad Naimov. We saw Naimov prove short notice fights are no big deal, knocking out Jamie Mullarkey in his UFC debut just four months ago. The combination of right and left hook that landed is one of Naimov’s most common attacks, loading up and dropping bombs on opponents when they look to play inside the pocket with him. He is once again a live underdog here although I find Wood to be a tougher matchup for him. The move to 145 pounds certainly helped raise the stock of wood who is much better technically than Naimov. He still fights with the speed and elusiveness of a bantamweight while offering much more in terms of his pressure and pacing. I think he is likely to land often moving forward against Naimov while the Tajiki sits back contently looking for his counter shots. The kicks of Wood should also play a factor in controlling range and winning exchanges on the feet. I cannot recommend betting Wood given how wide these odds are sitting but he does seem like the rightful favorite here. Nathaniel Wood by Decision
- Nick: Muhammad Naimov is 9-2 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win of Jamie Mullarkey in his UFC debut as a +350 underdog. Naimov is well rounded with four wins via KO and three via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. He is an explosive striker offensively, but he often chases big shots so it’s difficult for him to win fights on the scorecards. Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He forces a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best, he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. He recently moved up to featherweight, and he’s strung together three straight wins since making that transition. Naimov is live for an upset KO here, but as long as Wood avoids those big shots I expect he’ll be the ‘minute-winner’ in this matchup. Nathaniel Wood by Decision
Anshul Jubli -280 vs Mike Breeden +220
- Anthony: The next bout comes at lightweight with Anshul Jubli facing off with Mike Breeden. At weigh-ins we saw Breeden tip the scales at 159.5 pounds and thus forfeit a percentage of his fight purse to Jubli. This is the fourth UFC appearance for Breeden and he is thus far winless. His last showing was a bout just two months ago that saw him quickly stopped by Terrance McKinney. He is a solid boxer but with just 62 percent takedown defense I see him struggle against the style opponent he draws into today. Jubli is undefeated in martial arts with seven professional wins and an ammy record of 13-0. His best work comes utilizing offense wrestling and keeping control of opponents when his fights hit the mat. Jubli has good traditional takedowns but also excellent upper body locks and trips to score his shots. He also does very well cage grappling, an area I see him having a lot of success here facing Breeden. While Jubli may let Breeden get to his feet a few times I see the American fighter wearing down over the course of this fifteen minute bout. Jubli appears to be the far more durable of these two and the more likely winner in a fight that gets into round three. With these odds drastically closing, I find myself eager to bet Jubli more than some of this event’s much larger favorites. Anshul Jubli by Decision
- Nick: Anshul Jubli is 7-0 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Jeka Saragih in which he became the first Indian fighter to ever secure a win in the UFC. Jubli’s win took place in the Finals of the Road to UFC Lightweight Tournament. He’s relatively well-rounded, but it’s tough to gauge his skill level as he has only been fighting professionally since 2019. It seems Jubli has solid offensive grappling ability. He does a good job slowly advancing positions on his opponents until he’s safe, seeking submissions only without giving up position. Jubli is content to counterstrike and he does possess fight-ending power, but his tentative style does present opportunity for his opponents to score well on him early in fights. Breeden is a powerful striker, but he struggles to close distance and his defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He is 10-6 professionally, but 0-3 in the UFC. It seems very likely he’ll be cut from the promotion if he can’t secure a win in this match-up. This is an extremely low-level match-up, which makes this a tough fight to call. This is certainly not a confident play, but I’ll side with Breeden as the value side. It’s tough to trust either of these fighters, but Jubli is wildly overrated. Breeden has shown more than Jubli, even in his losses. Mike Breeden by Decision
Sedriques Dumas -260 vs Abu Azaitar +200
- Anthony: This should be a fun fight at middleweight with Abu Azaitar facing Sedriques Dumas. Both men have a rather fan friendly style with each showcasing rather high level kickboxing. Azaitar is quick and powerful, often utilizing his boxing and close range attacks to hurt his opponents in this weight class. He does not fight very often but when he does we see good effort from Azaitar and often an intelligent brawl. He is also rather solid in terms of offensive wrestling, certainly shooting more often than his brother Ottman does. I would like to see him attempt to grapple here although I seriously doubt that will be the case. A kickboxing match heavily favors Dumas although Azaitar does hit harder. The more sharp technically is clearly Dumas with the benefit of longer weapons to keep Azaitar at range. I expect to see a close fight with both men landing and for that reason I do not mind a play on the sizable underdog. Dumas still seems rather green and I feel Azaitar has a few ways to win this fight apart from the obvious KO landing. He will need to get hands on Dumas early to keep him off his rhythm. Abu Azaitar by Round Two KO
- Nick: Dumas is an athletic striker whose long reach allows him to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He does a decent job moving in and out of range, he mixes elbows into his combinations well, and he has shown he can place a timely counter with fight-ending power. He’s decent on the mat with a strong choke series, but his takedown defense is mediocre at best. He is 8-1 professionally, and 1-1 in the UFC. Azaitar could be described as a physical specimen. He throws extremely powerful hooks. He’s dangerous on the feet offensively, but he does sometimes overexert himself and leave himself open to counters. He has been out of action since March of 2021, and at 37 years-old it does seem likely he’s entering the twilight of his career. This is another low-level match-up and thus a tough fight to call. I’ll side with Dumas as the younger and more active fighter. Azaitar will be very dangerous early, but if he starts to fade I expect he’ll be willing to mail it in. Sedriques Dumas by Round Three Submission
Javid Basharat -600 vs Victor Henry +425
- Anthony: Next up is a fight at bantamweight with Victor Henry facing off with Javid Basharat. I have nothing but good things to say about Basharat since he has joined the promotion. Still undefeated, the 28-year-old really looks the part with refined striking and wrestling pressure that many will struggle with at 135 pounds. He keeps his guard tight and against a high volume striker like VIctor Henry I can see Basharat finding a lot of success even on the back foot. Basharat is great at placing his strikes on target and landing heavy kicks when openings are presented. While I feel that Henry has the cardio to keep pace with anyone this could be a fight that sees him finally wear down. Basharat lands more than two takedowns per fight on average and usually does well keeping opponents plastered to the mat. Henry has solid wrestling and BJJ but not the most threatening submissions for this level. I find him much more lively than +425 implies although Basharat is still my pick to earn the victory. Henry’s striking defense will leave him vulnerable and I expect those hands to only drop further as this fight gets into rounds two and three. Javid Basharat by Decision
- Nick: Victor Henry finds most of his success pressuring his opponents and wearing them down with volume. He got his UFC contract late in his career, but he has found a lot of success in respectable Japanese promotions via RIZIN and Pancrase. He’s a talented catch/counter-wrestler, training under Josh Barnett. He prefers to stand and trade, but he’s excellent in scrambles and does a good job using the momentum of his opponent to find opportune positions offensively. Javid Basharat is a highly regarded prospect, coming into this match-up with an undefeated 14-0 professional record. He is 3-0 so far in the UFC, most recently winning a convincing decision over a tough out in Mateus Mendonça. He’s extremely well-rounded, with an advanced understanding of footwork in striking exchanges. He fights long for his frame and throws at a fast and aggressive pace. He’s also an effective grappler, especially defensively as he’s shown to be excellent in scrambles. I do expect Basharat to secure the win here, but this fight should be much more competitive than the line suggests. These are two very similar fighters and Henry has faced the better competition of the two. I expect Basharat can land the bigger strikes and secure more top control than Henry will here, but this is a low confidence play at the current line. Javid Basharat by Decision
Trevor Peek -170 vs Mohammad Yahya +145
- Anthony: This is a lightweight contest between Trevor Peek and the debuting Mohammad Yahya. Yahya is Emirate and the first to represent UAE inside the octagon. He had a rather easy path into the UFC thanks to a string of hand picked opponents in UAE Warriors. Nonetheless Yahya found himself able to stack wins and earn the promotion’s lightweight title. His kickboxing is snappy with good offensive pressure but some holes in his defense are likely to be exposed. Yahya is much too comfortable on the retreat and a power puncher like Peek can certainly punish him fighting on the back foot. He has been finished on two prior occasions and I do not think Yahya will last long if the big hooks and uppercuts from Peek start connecting. It is tough to rely on Peek as a favorite given his reckless style but his cardio seems to be much better than what I originally anticipated. I do not see a newcomer like Yahya surviving the punishment if Peek can put combos together as has been the case in every appearance so far. I expect him to score a knockdown inside the first two rounds of this fight. Trevor Peek by Round One KO
- Nick: Peek is 8-1 professionally, but he’s only been fighting as a pro since 2020. Peek is an extremely aggressive brawler who throws hooks from wild angles and chases KOs with reckless abandon. His skills are still far from refined, but he gets by on his outstanding chin, toughness, and overall athleticism. Mohammad Yahya will be making his UFC debut here, as the first fighter from the United Arab Emirates to make it in the UFC. He has been fighting regionally for a respectable promotion in UAE Warriors. He is 12-3 professionally, on a five fight win-streak, and highly regarded as a prospect as the most recent UAEW Lightweight Champion. Mohammad Yahya, like Peek, prefers to stand and swing on his feet. He’s more technically refined than his opponent in this match-up, but he’s unlikely to match Peek in terms of power or durability. Peek is going to be the aggressor here, but he’ll need to be careful not to get caught with a counter. Even if he does, I do expect his chin will hold up as Yahya is not really known as a power puncher. This is a difficult fight to call, but I do see Peak eventually scoring a signature knockout. Yahya just doesn’t seem to be quite on the UFC level in terms of his ability. Trevor Peek by Round Two KO
Muhammad Mokaev -400 vs Tim Elliott +300
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a flyweight contest between Tim Elliott and the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev. It is the first fight for Mokaev since badly tearing his knee in a bout against Jafel Filho that he was still able to win. I have been extremely impressed with the young star, still just 23-years-old and always fighting hard for every minute of each fight. He is a superb grappler but most effective striking against some of these slower and less powerful flyweights. Elliott is certainly comfortable dogging it out with opponents on the feet but I find him at a significant disadvantage here matching up with a talent like Mokaev. Not only does Mokaev benefit from a four-inch reach advantage in this bout but an immense gap in size and strength. It will be very difficult for Elliott to land clean shots on Mokaev or effectively wrestle as is often the case in bout that Elliott is able to win. While he is a gritty veteran that does fight hard for your money, Elliott is merely 1-6 as an underdog in the UFC. Elliott will find out very early in this one that the kicks and outside striking from Mokaev are not to be dealt with lightly. Mokaev will hurt Elliott over the course of this bout and likely find a finish before time expires. A submission win seems just a bit more likely than a knockout. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Mokaev is a highly regarded flyweight prospect, born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 amateur record. He’s 4-0 under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking for his fifth UFC win here against a dangerous vet in Tim Elliott. Tim Elliot is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. He starts fights like he is shot out of a cannon, but he can be susceptible to making mistakes at times via his overaggressive nature. He’s an effective grappler with a solid wrestling base. He’s excellent in scrambles and while his striking is far from conventional he’s effective as his awkward style makes him difficult for his opponents to read. Mokaev is a high-level wrestler who can push an aggressive pace for a full three rounds. He is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, and so far in the UFC he is averaging just under eight successful takedowns per fight. He continues to show improvement on the feet, but his greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability as five of his nine professional wins have come via submission. The line feels wide here as Elliott makes almost all of his fights look close. Still, I expect Mokaev can land the bigger shots on the feet and then eventually find a finish on the mat before this one is said and done. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Three Submission
Main Card- Starts 2:00pm EST
Said Nurmagomedov -225 vs Muin Gafurov +180
- Anthony: The main card begins with bantamweight action between Muin Gafurov and Said Nurmagomedov. I am never rushing to bet Nurmagomedov at worse than -200 and this is yet another spot where I find him vulnerable to blowing the win. His performances as of late have been a bit better until a decision loss against Jonathan Martinez in his last time out. Competitive striking matches will rarely result in a convincing victory for the Russian. He may strike quicker and with more precision than Gafurov while still eating plenty of shots on his own chin. I think advantages in size and reach will end up helping Nurmagomedov even if moments of this fight against Gafurov get sketchy. We have also seen Gafurov shoot reactively in the past, certainly not a strategy one would suggest facing Nurmagomedov. Said has great front chokes and a strong upper body that give him an edge when these two get clinched. He should pay off this price tag in most instances although Gafurov has what it takes to put up a solid fight. Said Nurmagomedov by Decision
- Nick: Unlike many of the other top Russian prospects, Said Nurmagomedov is primarily a striker. He’s a talented kickboxer who throws a wide range of effective spinning attacks. He’s certainly dangerous on the mat as well, but he’s found most of his success at the UFC level picking his opponents apart at range. Muin Gafurov is fairly well-rounded, with eleven wins coming via KO and seven via submission. He fell via decision to a tough out in John Castenada in his UFC debut, but he is a former LFA Bantamweight Champion with additional high level experience for promotions such as UAE Warriors and ONE Championship. I could certainly see this fight going either way, but I’m siding with Nurmagomedov here. He’s simply been tested more extensively against top level competition. I see him as the more well-rounded fighter and the more potent finisher as well. If he falls behind in striking exchanges, he has a grappling advantage he can fall back on. Additionally, Gafurov’s propensity to grapple should lead to openings for Nurmagomedov to find one of his signature chokes. Said Nurmagomedov by Round One Submission
Ikram Aliskerov -600 vs Warlley Alves +425
- Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Warlley Alves and Ikram Aliskerov. This is a short notice appearance for Alves who steps in for the injured Nassourdine Imavov. He moves up from welterweight for this bout and cedes some significant size to the Russian opposing him. Alves is always dangerous but the biggest knock on him is the volatility of each of his appearances. More often than not we’ve seen a version of Alves that does not take shots well and tends to shut down when the going gets tough. He is starting to slow down at the age of 32 and this move up in weight certainly wouldn’t seem to benefit him. Aliskerov has the much better build for 185 pounds. The world combat sambo champion has just one loss on his professional resume against the still unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev. Aliskerov has fought quality opponents in Brave and Eagle FC. His striking has also been improving drastically in his past few years of service. Certainly I find it possible he sleeps Alves with long strikes slicing through his guard. Aliskerov is someone that the UFC views highly given recent bookings and pay-per-view appearances. I won’t overrate him off one win over Phil Hawes but certainly he seems like the right side here against similar level competition. Ikram Aliskerov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Aliskerov is 14-1 professionally, with his only loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev back in 2019. He’s primarily a grappler but often described as well-rounded, with five wins coming via submission and five coming via KO. He carries decent power on the feet, but his striking is far from technical as he throws mostly hooks and chases knockouts without much concern for defense. He scored an impressive KO win over Phil Hawes in his UFC debut. Alves is a well-rounded fighter, but his career certainly seems to be on the decline. He’s a strong grappler with effective BJJ, but his gas tank/cardio prevents him from leaning on that part of his game. He’s a powerful striker at range with excellent body kicks, but he often seems to fade as his fights wear on. He is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2016, and he’s taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice as Nassourdine Imavov was forced to pull out due to injury. Alves’ skills and athleticism are undeniable, but he’s wildly inconsistent so it’s tough to know how he’ll look on any given night. The line does feel wide, but I do see Aliskerov as the rightful favorite. As long as he stays out of danger here early I expect he can take over as this fight wears on. Ikram Aliskerov by Round One KO
Magomed Ankalaev -350 vs Johnny Walker +275
- Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at light heavyweight between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker. In terms of betting angles this fight seems pretty cut and dry with Ankalaev clearly the right side when comparing the skills of these fighters. Walker is explosive and a fun staple of the light heavyweight top ten. He is a dangerous man to stand opposite despite having some issues with his own durability and tendency to take shots on the chin. He has the power to stop just about anyone he faces but a tactician like Ankalaev will probably give him fits. Ankalaev’s big left hand and powerful kickboxing make him much less one-dimensional in his pursuit for offense. He lands at a steady rate but more impressive from Ankalaev is the mere 2.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute. With defense just as good as his offense he should batter Walker for as long as this fight is on the feet. Ankalaev also has very high level grappling and the edge over Walker if he elects to wrestle. Normally we see Ankalaev content when fighting at range but I like that he can always rely on his grappling when put in tricky situations. I thought he did enough to win the belt in a draw with Jan Blachowicz last year that saw Ankalaev score takedowns in round three and round four. The leg kicks got to Ankalaev in that bout and I think once again he will absorb quite a few. Walker has placed some very nice calf kicks lately and chopping away at Ankalaev would certainly help his chances of winning. Nonetheless I expect the Brazilian to come up short. I expect Ankalaev to get a hold of this world title not too long down the line. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
- Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has propelled him to the top of the division. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. He’s coming off a controversial draw against Jan Blachowicz for the Vacant Light Heavyweight Championship. He has been out of action since that fight back in December of 2022. Johnny Walker is extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fighting IQ leaves much to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. He does have some momentum coming into this match-up, coming off three straight wins in the division. I expect Ankaleav to mostly fight Walker at range here, and to mix in his grappling if at any point he needs to. It wouldn’t shock me to see Walker pull off the upset by KO, but Ankalev simply has more paths to victory. After a slow start, I expect he’ll work Walker to the mat where he should be able to finish him with ground-and-pound. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
Khamzat Chimaev -350 vs Kamaru Usman +275
- Anthony: The co-main event is a massive fight between Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev. This bout comes with just ten days notice after Chimaev had originally been slated to face Paulo Costa. Now instead the former champion is moving up to middleweight to face the still undefeated phenom. It has long been a fight that fans were clamoring to see but now it happens to come with Usman having limited time to prepare. Chimaev is an extremely intense fighter with what seems like non-stop offensive output. I am expecting the best version of Chimaev we’ve seen since his last middleweight fight in 2020. He has evolved after facing more legitimate competition and continues to add in terms of his skillset and his Fight IQ. We will see Chimaev likely test his elite wrestling here against a man that was taken down only once during a reign of seventeen UFC fights. Usman will certainly be a bit undersized at middleweight and in this particular matchup with Chimaev. Coming off two of his worse performances it is hard to imagine Usman dominating this fight in any shape or form. He appears to be declining now at the age of 36 and it is a well known fact that both the man’s knees sustained irreparable damage over a long career of fighting. This feels like a passing of the torch with a younger and more hungry wrestler getting better of the aged veteran. I still view Usman as one of the best in the world but if Chimaev is the future champion I certainly believe him to be, taking out a former great should be the next step for him. Especially given this fight’s short notice nature I expect Chimaev to stay perfect and win here in Abu Dhabi. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Khamzat Chimaev is one of the more hyped prospects the UFC has ever seen. He’s an extremely talented grappler known to lift his opponents fully in the air, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he throws devastating ground-and-pound while boasting an advanced arsenal of submissions. He’s an underrated striker with true KO power and many have him pegged as a future champion. Having bounced between welterweight and middleweight for most of his career, it seems he’s finally moving up to middleweight for good. He was originally scheduled to fight Paulo Costa in this spot, but Costa was forced to withdraw due to injury/infection. Instead, he’ll be taking on a former welterweight champion in Kamaru Usman. Usman will be moving up a weight class here, after dropping back to back fights to the current Welterweight Champion, Leon Edwards. Primarily a wrestler, and a dominant one at that, Usman has shown both excellent defense and durability on the feet. Since he began training under an excellent striking coach in Trevor Wittman, his jab and his overall boxing ability seem to improve every time we see him fight. While he has made major strides throughout his career, it seems he is slowing down at 36-years old. The line feels a bit wide given Usman’s outstanding resume, but up a weight class here I expect Chimaev can take him out inside the distance. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two KO
Islam Makhachev -260 vs Alexander Volkanovski +200
- Anthony: The main event decides the lightweight championship with Islam Makhachev set to rematch Alexander Volkanovski. We are running back one of this year’s best fights now on short notice across the world in Abu Dhabi. Credit to the great Volkanovski for once again stepping up and attempting the feat of becoming a double champion. Makhachev enters on his own streak of 12 straight wins in the promotion after beating Volkanovski by decision in Australia. That fight showcased the skills of both men with Volkanovski surprisingly fighting out of Makhachev’s grasp and putting on the better display of striking on the feet. Both men landed knockdowns in the first meeting with Volkanosvki scoring a pivotal one in the bout’s final round. Certainly I feel Makhachev overlooked Volkanovski in their first meeting as the latter half of that fight certainly swung Volk’s way. Makhachev has great entries and dominant top control that make him a nightmare to gameplan for on the mat. Fighting out of the southpaw stance allows him easy entries on his opponents legs. He also can follow left strikes into clinch positions rather seamlessly, using his sambo and technical trips to get fights down to the mat in that manner. I see some powerful leg kicks really limiting Makhachev in the early rounds here as he again looks to implement that offensive wrestling. I want to take Volkanovski again here in the rematch but the value is not as appealing as was my +300 bet back in February. The most likely outcome is another decision win for Makhachev with the featherweight champion proving to be too tough to get finished. Certainly a decision is likely to go Makhachev’s way, fighting now on his side of the world. I struggle to imagine a better performance for Volkanovski than in the first meeting, although the same can be said for Makhachev. Volkanoski will again prove tough to keep on the mat and very much a match for Makhachev on the feet. I just advise against betting the man with only ten days to get into shape for a world title fight. It would be one of the sport’s great stories if Volkanovski could really get off his couch and take the champion’s belt. I hope we get to see it happen. And New. Alexander Volkanovski by Round Four KO
- Nick: This fight represents a rematch of a fight that took place back in February, in which Makhachev won a clear but extremely competitive decision. Makhachev was originally scheduled to defend his title against Charles Oliveira on this card, but Oliveira was forced to pull out after sustaining a major cut over his eye in sparring. Islam Makhachev is one of the most talented fighters in the UFC. He is a decorated grappler as a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He pushes a serious pace and has enough wrestling ability to take almost anyone in this division down repeatedly. Makhachev has underrated striking, knockout power and clear draw for the promotion. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he can be highly effective when he does throw. He averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. His greatest strength is most certainly his grappling ability and he’ll look to lean on that part of his game here against a dangerous striker in Volkanovski. Volkanovsk has an extremely high fight-IQ. He’s a gifted striker who does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He does a good job closing distance against taller opponents and his low and powerful base makes him difficult to takedown. He’s capable of finding entries for takedowns, but he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet. Volkonovski does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. He’s very difficult for his opponents to read and he makes them pay whenever they try to put him on the defensive. In many ways this is a classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Volkanovski is the better technical striker on the feet, but the fear of Makhachev taking him down should keep things relatively close when the fight is standing. We have seen Volkanovski taken down by wrestlers nowhere near the ability of Makhachev in the past, so I have trouble expecting him to keep this fight standing. The line feels wide here just knowing how skilled Volkanovski is, but Makhachev is very clearly the pick. The intangibles are in his favor this time around. He’ll be fighting in front of a ‘home crowd,’ he’ll have a wider window for hydration, and he has a full camp whereas Volkanovski is taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice. Volkanovski will be live for an early KO here and I expect he comes out aggressive. However, given the short notice nature of this matchup I expect Makhachev can weaponize his cardio and take over late. And Still. Islam Makhachev by Round Four Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com