With week 1 of the NFL season in the books, it’s time to jump onto the waiver wire, blow up your team and completely overreact to everything that took place over the past 5 days. Right?
Fantasy trophies are rarely won at the draft – it’s often what you do via the waiver wire that will give your team the push it needs to get you across the finish line. Week 1 waivers are always essential – this is our first true sign as to how NFL teams will look to utilize their players going forward. Usage rates, routes run and total touches in week 1 are major indicators as to how a player will fit in with the offense going forward.
So here are our picks for the top pick ups following Week 1. These are the guys that we think will either help you win the next couple of matchups or are primed to have breakout seasons, but are owned in less than 40% of fantasy leagues.
We’ll touch on how hard you should be going after them, but everyone’s team build is different. If you went zero or hero RB strategy in the draft, you’re likely to want to put up a way higher FAAB % bid than someone who is looking to secure a flex position. It’s all in how you conceive your roster shaking out over the coming weeks.
We’ll be going position by position, and rank them by tiers that I think you should be targeting so you can make positional decisions based on your team needs.
Quarterbacks
Streaming Quarterbacks is a tricky situation, but there are always some breakout performances that we didn’t expect. While Tagovailoa was the clear QB1 in fantasy last week (93% owned), the # 2 and #3 ranked quarterbacks were Mac Jones and Jordan Love, who are owned in 9% and 32% of leagues respectively. Brock Purdy is only owned in 56% of leagues but also had a top 10 performance. So while he doesn’t qualify for this article, go check his availability and add him if you have space – that Niners offense looks like they’ll be a top tier group all season.
The cream always rises to the top when it comes to the quarterback position – Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are too talented to continue to disappoint as they all did in week 1. That being said, there are some intriguing matchups coming up this week for some strong follow up performances.
Tier 1
Jordan Love – GB – Week 2 @ ATL – 32% Owned
Without his #1 receiver Christian Watson, Jordan Love dominated a poor Chicago Bears defense to the tune of 245 yards and 3 touchdowns for 26 fantasy points on just 15 completions. He threw crisp passes for the majority of the game despite a relatively low completion percentage, and only took 1 sack. Love is looking to ride that high into week 2 in a matchup against another poor pass defense in Atlanta. Even if Watson isn’t able to return, Love showed he is able to spread the ball around, with 6 different receivers finishing with 2+ targets. With Watson, Love looks like he could finish as a top 15 quarterback this season.
Tier 2
Mac Jones – NE – Week 2 vs Mia – 9% Owned
Jones likely won’t surpass 35 pass attempts in many games this season, but he finished Week 1 with 54 after New England found themselves down 16-0 early in the game. His lone interception wasn’t his fault, and he could have had an even better fantasy performance if Boutte had been able to tap his toes inbounds on 2 different occasions. Jones enters week 2 against the Miami Dolphins – a team who just put the NFL on notice as one of the best offenses in the league. So while I really believe the Patriots defense could finish the season as a top 3 unit, Miami’s speed is something to behold, and I have a hard time seeing them being slowed down this early in the year. The Patriots are in line to be in a shootout, and Jones will be slinging it for another week to try and keep up.
Derek Carr – NO – Week 2 @ Car- 38% Owned
Despite finishing with only 1 touchdown, Carr recovered from a slow start against Tennessee to finish with 305 yards. He finished with 9.2 yards per attempt and completed 5 passes of 20 yards or more. New Orleans seems to have a solid receiving trio of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas who should all be able to take advantage of a weak Panthers’ secondary in a week 2 divisional matchup.
Deep Flier
Baker Mayfield – TB – Week 2 vs Chi – 10% Owned
In his Tampa Bay debut, Mayfield actually showed impressive poise in a mistake free victory over the Minnesota Vikings. He finished with just 173 passing yards, but threw for 2 touchdowns and rushed 8 times (albeit for just 11 yards). He brings toughness and grit to the quarterback position, and has a dream matchup week 2 against the Chicago Bears. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his primary receiving options, Mayfield is suddenly a somewhat valuable QB2/Superflex option in fantasy.
Running Backs
This is the biggest position to focus on for the next few weeks for waiver wire pickups. If you’ve stacked your team with elite receivers and strong QB and TE, you likely need to immediately spend your FAAB or waiver priority to snag an up and comer who’s set to take over a team’s running game.
We of course also saw a major injury at the position, as J.K. Dobbins tore his achilles and will miss the rest of the season with the second major injury of his career. While the natural instinct is to snag his backups, there are serious question marks as to who will step up for the Ravens without Dobbins in the lineup, as it may turn out to be a timeshare in the Ravens backfield.
Tyler Allegier (57% owned), Jaylen Warren (47% owned) and Kenneth Gainwell (47% owned) should also be picked up in most leagues as the Falcons will continue to pursue a run dominant offense, Warren looks to be the more explosive option in Pittsburgh and the Eagles do not apparently trust any of their other running backs on the roster, making Gainwell the de facto #1 back as long as the reported rib injury isn’t too severe.
Tier 1
Kyren Williams – LAR – Week 2 vs SF – 7% Owned
Looking at the final numbers, it looks like Williams and Cam Akers worked in a shared backfield in their week 1 game against the Seahawks, but in reality, Williams was the clear lead back until the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach and Akers came in for mop up duty. Williams out-snapped Akers 26-4 in the first half and 39-12 over the first 3 quarters. He ran 28 routes as opposed to Akers 2 and dominated in the key usage areas. Akers and the Rams had problems last season, so it’s completely believable that they were just waiting for someone to step up and take over the role as the lead back. While the Rams offensive performance in week 1 might be an outlier, there’s a chance that Williams can finish as a top 15 back, so breaking the bank to try and get him isn’t too outlandish of a thought.
Joshua Kelley – LAC – Week 2 @ Ten – 7% Owned
The Chargers offense under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore may have not impacted the passing offense as much as we expected, but it did wonders for their run game. And Kelley was a key benefactor. Kelley played in 45% of the team’s offensive snaps, and was barely out-touched by Ekeler (20-16) while running 15 total routes (to Ekeler’s 23). He had strong usage for a guy that was considered an afterthought after last season. Ekeler has been vocal about wanting someone to step up to take some of the load off his plate, and this may finally be the time we see it with Kelley. With Ekeler popping up on reports with an ankle injury already, Kelley could be a strong play in week 2 against a weak Titans defense.
Tier 2
Justice Hill – BAL – Week 2 @ Cin – 4% Owned &
Gus Edwards – BAL – Week 2 @ Cin – 21% Owned
With J.K. Dobbins out for the season, the Baltimore backfield is up for grabs. The team is calling up Melvin Gordon from the practice squad, but Edwards and Hill will get the first crack at the lead role. For my money, I think I would rather invest in Hill in the short term taking over as the top fantasy producer.
Edwards is a between the tackle bruiser and much better as a run blocker which will keep him on the field, but Hill’s ability as a receiver makes him a more valuable asset in Monken’s offense. Granted, Hill barely managed to record over 1 yard per carry this past weekend, but he did find the end zone twice. Dobbins was having an outstanding game prior to the injury, so there are some fantasy points to be had out of this backfield. But I have a hard time believing that the long term answer is currently on their roster. Look for a free agent signing like Kareem Hunt (11% owned) to come in and take over during the season.
Zach Moss – Ind – Week 2 @ Hou – 7% Owned
While I’m not a huge fan of what Moss brings to the table, the Colts are clearly in need of help at the position and Moss should easily walk into the RB1 role as soon as he returns from his broken arm. Deon Jackson had a disaster of a game with only 28 scrimmage yards and 2 fumbles on 18 touches. Not to mention, rookie Evan Hull left the game with a knee injury. Moss returned to camp prior to the opener and seemed to be close to being ready for the season opener before being ruled out on Sunday. He looks to have limited competition on an offense that looked more competent than expected.
Deep Fliers
Tyjae Spears – Ten – Week 2 vs LAC – 15% Owned
Adding Spears is more of a long term play, but considering the Titans employ one of the best workhorse backs in the league, his usage in week 1 was pretty stunning. He was on the field for 54% of the team’s offensive snaps making it seem like the team is looking to lighten Derrick Henry’s load this season. While Spears only got 3 carries, he averaged 9 yards per carry and could have had a big statement touchdown play if it wasn’t for a poor throw by Tannehill which would have drawn more eyes towards his availability. If you have someone you are already to move on from, Spears is definitely worth a roster stash.
Sean Tucker – TB – Week 2 vs Chi – 4% Owned
Tucker went undrafted in the NFL entry draft due to an irregular heart beat, but Tampa Bay were wise to scoop up the talented back. He’s been medically cleared with a minimal risk of the issue hampering his career. Rashaad White (93% rostered) has been touted as the clear lead running back for the Bucs for most of the preseason, but he’s probably better served as a pass catching option as opposed to a true 3 down back. White turned 17 carries into just 39 yards in week 1, and if he cannot explode against a weaker defense in week 2, Tucker should start to see his role increase as the season progresses.
Wide Receivers
If you happened to create a fantasy league that drafts after week 1, would it really be shocking if Tyreek Hill went #1 overall? The 29 year old wideout plans on breaking 2,000 receiving yards this season, and looked uncoverable against the Chargers, finishing with 215 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 receptions.
There were so many receivers that look to be key waiver wire additions after week 1. Jakobi Meyers, who is 50% owned, finished the game with 9 catches on 10 targets and looks to be Garoppolo’s #1 look – as long as he clears concussion protocol. Rookie Zay Flowers (71% owned) already had the appearance of being the Ravens WR1, and Nico Collins (55% owned) had a nice debut with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, quietly collecting 80 yards on 6 catches on 11 targets.
Those are the obvious guys to look at, but if you’re in a competitive league, chances are they’re already rostered.
Romeo Doubs (31% owned) will likely be heavily targeted on the waiver wire, but his week 1 fantasy performance was saved by 2 of his 4 catches going for touchdowns. I would have liked to see a lot more from him with Watson out, so he’s someone I would settle for on waivers, but I’m not going to prioritize taking him this week. If you’re a believer in the Green Bay offense, I would rather target the long term upside of Jayden Reed.
Here’s who you should be really targeting.
Tier 1
Puka Nacua – LAR – Week 2 vs SF – 9% Owned
The Nacua hype train has left the station after one of the best rookie receiver debuts we’ve ever seen in the NFL. He finished the game with 15 targets with 10 receptions for 119 yards while playing in 96% of the team’s offensive snaps in the first 3 quarters before he was rested in the 4th quarter. Nacua dropped down NFL entry draft boards after testing poorly at the combine, but he certainly passes the eye test as a true football player on the field.
There’s no way he’ll continue his absurd 39.4% usage rate, especially when Cooper Kupp returns. But for the time being, he’ll continue to operate in this high volume role. He has the talent to be a key cog in the offense even after the potential return of Kupp, but buyer beware – the Rams offense looked excellent in Week 1 but are quarterbacked by a 35 year old with an injury history who recently contemplated retirement. With no backup in place for Stafford, Nacua’s season debut can easily become a distant memory.
Kendrick Bourne – NE – Week 2 vs Mia – 4% Owned
Bourne spent most of last season in Matt Patricia’s doghouse much to the dismay of Patriots fans everywhere. But with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien in place, it looks like the 28 year old receiver finally will have a chance to make an impact this season. Bourne was the clear go to guy in the team’s new look offense, earning 11 targets catching 6 passes for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns. He played in 91% of the team’s offensive snaps and ran a team high 54 routes, and looks like he may emerge as the team’s WR1. The Pats are likely in for a shootout next weekend against the fast paced Dolphins offense, and with DeVante Parker still trying to work his way back from a knee injury, Bourne is in line for another impressive target share.
Zay Jones – Jax – Week 2 vs KC – 31% Owned
We didn’t want to believe it when drafting, but it’s quite clear that Christian Kirk has fallen behind Zay Jones in the pecking order with Calvin Ridley taking over as the lead receiver. While Jones’ 5 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown aren’t astounding, he finished as the WR31 last season in points per game and is a trusted red zone option for Trevor Lawrence. Kirk put on a disappearing act (3 targets, 9 receiving yards) while only lining up in 3 receiver sets. So while Ridley will be the dominant receiver for this offense, Jones can carve out a nice reliable role and be a solid WR3/Flex option for you going forward.
Tier 2
Rashid Shaheed – NO – Week 2 @ Car – 17% Owned
Shaheed finished as a top 10 receiver in most formats after recording 89 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, running the ball twice for an additional 11 yards. The Saints offense as a whole got off to a slow start. And while they have 2 high end options working on the outside in Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, Shaheed looks ready to break out as a big play slot receiver. He’s a high level route runner with blinding speed that finished strong last season, but was largely forgotten about coming into this year. He finished with an 18.1 % target share, and should be matched up against weaker defensive coverages as teams look to try and take away Olave on the outside. He’ll be a hit or miss option for fantasy this season, but definitely worth a roster spot.
Tutu Atwell – LAR – Week 2 vs SF – 4% Owned
Atwell is another Ram who had a surprising game in week 1, finishing with 119 yards on just 6 receptions. Atwell was a full time player, lining up for 79% of the team’s offensive snaps, and receiving an impressive 21% target share. Atwell excels at settling down into the gaps in zone coverages, and while the Rams face two very good defenses over the next 2 weeks, they both like to play zone coverage which bodes well for Atwell’s prospects. I cannot see him sustaining this type of productivity over the course of the entire year, but if you’re not willing to shell out the big FAAB money to grab Nacua, Atwell will serve as a good consolation prize.
Deep Fliers
Robert Woods – Hou – Week 2 vs Ind – 4% Owned
Woods surprised me this week – as in I actually forgot he still plays NFL football – but he had a good performance and has a clear rapport with rookie quarterback C.J Stroud. Woods finished with just 57 yards on 6 catches, but was targeted 10 times. If your roster is super volatile, grabbing Woods to lock in 8-10 points every week is a fairly safe bet, and you probably don’t have to spend a dime to get him.
Rashee Rice – KC – Week 2 @ Jax – 36% Owned
This will likely be a pick up and stash, but after the abysmal performance we saw from the Chiefs receivers on the Thursday nighter, it might be time for Andy Reid to put more faith into his rookie wide receivers. Skyy Moore looks more and more like a bust every day, Kadarious Toney is either hurt or dropping passes, and Justyn Ross seems destined to only be worked into red zone packages. Rice is probably the most talented of the group, and while Kelce will dominate the passing offense when he returns, the Chiefs clearly need to start working on a secondary option – Rice is the best one they have at this point.
Tight Ends
No position disappointed more in fantasy in week 1 than tight end. Only three players topped 10 points in ½ ppr scoring and none of them are owned in more that 20% of leagues. While you’re sure to be disappointed in your team’s output from the tight end position, at least your opponent’s tight end didn’t do much better.
Early signs indicate that Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, the top 2 tight ends off draft boards, are likely to suit up for week 2. Players like Dallas Goedert and Chigoziem Okonkwo are too valuable to their offenses to put up back to back 0 point performances. Things will get better at the position.
But if you’re ready to cut ties with your draft selection, here are a couple names to throw a dollar or two at and see what happens. Yes, 2 of them are the top 2 tight ends from Week 1, but they actually have a path to become fantasy relevant.
Hunter Henry – NE – Week 2 vs Mia – 17% Owned
Henry earned 6 targets, catching 5 passes for 56 yards and a score in his week 1 matchup against the Eagles, playing in 78% of the team’s offensive snaps. Mac Jones did throw 54 passes that game, so for him to become a valuable fantasy option we’ll have to see his target rate rise dramatically from the 11 percent in week 1. He made 2 eye popping grabs for the Patriots during that game – as skill has never been a question for Henry – so if he can carve out a role in O’Brien’s offense he could be in for a big season.
Hayden Hurst – Car – Week 2 vs NO – 12% Owned
The Panthers might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL, so if they want rookie quarterback Bryce Young to have any success this year, they’ll be looking for Hurst to be his safety blanket and potentially leading receiver. While Hurst can definitely finish as a top 12 tight end this season, you might want to consider holding off on picking him up for at least one more week if you can.
The New Orleans Saints defense excels at shutting down tight ends (just ask Okonkwo) – so week 2 will be a tough matchup for the veteran TE, but things open up against the Seahawks and Vikings after that. Hurst’s usage numbers are lower than you’d like to see, but that’s because the team rarely uses him in blocking situations – they leave that to Ian Thomas and Giovanni Ricci. Every time Hurst is on the field he’s expected to run a route, and if he can build a rapport with Young he could have a breakout year.
Luke Musgrave – GB – Week 2 @ Atl – 19% Owned
It’s always a little dicey selecting a rookie tight end, but this year just feels different. Musgrave was a clear starter for the Packers in week 1, logging 75% of the team’s offensive snaps and running routes on 80% of the team’s dropbacks. His final stat line (3 catched on 4 targets for 50 yards) would have been much more impressive if he didn’t fall down on what would have been a walk-in touchdown at the 5 yard line. He’s an every down player that won’t be asked to stay in and block. He’s a speedy middle of the field route runner that will only improve as the season progresses. He won’t be left on waivers in most leagues by the end of the season.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: SewageBoy. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.