UFC Paris Analysis

UFC Paris: Gane vs Spivac – 9.2.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Paris: Gane vs Spivak. The UFC continues a tour around the world this weekend with fights back in France. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 216-146-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 230-132-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-1-2023 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 12:30pm EST

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -375 vs Zarah Fairn +300

Anthony: The card begins with a fight between Zarah Fairn and Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Fairn has fought ten years professionally but seems to be at the end of the road, now making the walk at age 39. Fairn has lost in three consecutive appearances and seems likely to retire today at mere 6-6. She is a solid combination striker but nothing special otherwise. With a clear deficiency in her ground game I do not think she survives very long against the debuting Cavalcanti. This is a solid European prospect with strength and much more pop than Zarah. She seems to be built well for this fight at a 140-pound catchweight while Fairn struggled to hit that mark on the scales Friday. Fairn’s only chance here is winning a standup fight and I do not see her keeping the feet for very long at all on this occasion. Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Round Two KO
Nick: Fairn is 6-5 professionally, coming off an ugly decision loss to Josiane Nunes back in January of 2021. She is 0-3 in the UFC, and it seems very likely she’ll be cut from the roster if she can’t secure a win in this spot. She has a long frame and decent striking ability at range, but her defense is questionable at best both in exchanges and if she finds herself on the mat. She does not wear damage well, and at 39-years old there is no denying the fact she’s in the twilight of her career. Jacqueline Cavalcanti will be making her UFC debut here, after capturing the Vacant LFA Bantamweight Championship in a decision win over Melissa Croden. She is 5-1 professionally, with three of those five wins coming via KO. She’s an aggressive striker who does a good job closing distance. She’ll be the better grappler in this match-up, and the much faster and more aggressive fighter. The line feels wide as Cavalcanti is relatively unproven, but she is the rightful favorite. She should be more well-rounded with a considerable advantage in both speed and cardio. Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision

Farid Basharat -375 vs Kleydson Rodrigues +300

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight matchup between Farid Basharat and Kleydson Rodrigues. I think Rodrigues had rather solid prospects in the 125 pound division but after missing weight in his last appearance I understand the move up to 135 today. I find him a bit small for bantamweight and certainly undersized here facing a great wrestler in Farid Basharat. Rodrigues will be looking to implement his kickboxing to beat Basharat today and while we have seen Basharat get his bread buttered offensively wrestling, he also fires good combinations and kicks just like his Brazilian foe. Rodrigues seems rather easy to take down and I do not see him having any success today constantly fighting with his back on the mat. Basharat is certainly warranted being a large favorite in this specific stylistic clash. Farid Basharat by Decision
Nick: Farid Basharat is the younger brother of Jahvid Basharat, who is a rising contender in his own right. Similarly to his brother, Baharat is highly skilled no matter where the fight goes. He is 10-0 professionally, coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut over a tough opponent in Da’Mon Blackshear. Basharat strikes well at range. He does a good job working behind his jab. He throws lengthy combinations and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a very high pace. His grappling is solid, especially defensively. He’s dangerous in scrambles and very difficult to take down. Rodrigues works well behind his jab, he has powerful leg kicks, but he is most known for his flashy high kicks and spinning attacks. He is extremely aggressive on the feet and he’s more than willing to throw flying knees and wheel kicks in open space. He’s moving up a weight class here after back-to-back weight misses at 125 lbs. He has shown power at the professional level, but moving up a weight class it’s tough to know if he’ll still carry it at the same level. The line feels wide here, but Basharat should be able to stay a step ahead. Rodrigues can be dangerous, but Basharat is the more skilled fighter no matter where this one goes. Farid Basharat by Decision

Joselyne Edwards -130 vs Nora Cornolle +110

Anthony: This is a bantamweight matchup with Joselyne Edwards facing Nora Cornolle. The UFC debut for Cornolle comes today as she has accrued six professional wins since transitioning to mixed martial arts in 2021. Cornolle is experienced in kickboxing and muay thai leading to a lot of success thus far in the cage. Edwards will be happy to strike with Cornolle here but perhaps also mix in more clinchwork and grappling against a far less experienced foe. Her kicks and long range strikes should score nicely against the forward moving Cornolle but there is more power coming towards Edwards than landing the opposite way. As is usually the case, Edwards will probably take a very close decision with each woman having some moments of their own. I probably will not bet on a low level fight like this one even though the odds do tempt me. Joselyne Edwards by Decision
Nick: Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. She has decent offensive grappling ability, but she has trouble getting back to her feet if she’s taken down by her opponent. She is coming off three straight wins via decision, most recently by a narrow margin against Lucie Pudilová. She’s almost always in very close fights, and this is likely to be another one here against the debutant in Cornolle. Nora Cornolle will be making her UFC debut here, coming off back to back wins via finish for UAE Warriors. She is 6-1 professionally, having not lost a fight since her 2021 debut. She’ll be fighting in front of her home crowd in this match-up, with this being her fourth fight in 2023. Cornolle will be aggressive early, but I’m not sure she’s ready for such a significant step up in competition. I expect Edwards to pull away on the scorecards after a close first round. Joselyne Edwards by Decision

Ange Loosa -175 vs Rhys McKee +150

Anthony: Next is a bout at welterweight between Ange Loosa and Rhys McKee. This is McKee’s second chance in the UFC after getting cut from an 0-2 campaign that saw him take losses against Alex Morono and Khamzat Chimaev. Since then McKee is 3-0 in Cage Warriors and still the welterweight champion there. He has never lost in the promotion which is without a doubt the biggest in all of Europe. McKee has also gotten better, putting out an even higher pace of strikes than in years prior with the shame sharp boxing and attacks from distance we are used to seeing. He will have a willing dance partner here in Loosa who averages north of six significant strikes landed per minute. While Loosa and McKee will certainly battle back and forth I know for a fact McKee has the better cardio and verve in the latter rounds of fights. His hands are quick and I find him taking advantage of Loosa’s slower, looping strikes. Hopefully he can cash in for me as the underdog, keeping Loosa at the end of his strikes and spending more minutes outside of the pocket using longer ranged attacks. I think he is a quality underdog on a card with very few plus money plays. Rhys McKee by Decision
Nick: Loosa telegraphs many of his strikes and his footwork is far from refined, but his athleticism and overall explosiveness allows him to find success in exchanges. Loosa lands more than five significant strikes per minute. He’s a decent grappler and strong for the division, but his cardio has been somewhat questionable. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a solid win over a rising prospect in AJ Fletcher. He stayed a step ahead in that fight, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against another young welterweight in Rhys McKee. McKee is only 27-years old, but this is already his second stint in the UFC. He fell to tough competition in Khamzat Chimaev and Alex Morono before he was cut in 2020. He has since secured three straight wins via finish for Cage Warriors, so it isn’t surprising to see him getting another chance here against Loosa. McKee has a long frame, but his best striking takes place in the clinch. He has a solid chin and he’s very durable, but he sometimes waits for fights to come to him and his defensive grappling is average at best. This should be a competitive match-up, but I expect Loosa to use leg kicks to stay ahead in striking exchanges. He should have a considerable grappling advantage in this match-up as well. McKee does have a chance to pull off the upset if he can avoid big shots and keep this fight standing, but Loosa is the rightful favorite. Ange Loosa by Decision

Taylor Lapilus -175 vs Caolan Loughran +150

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at bantamweight between Taylor Lapilus and Caolan Loughran. This is the UFC debut for Loughran who enters undefeated at 8-0. He was scheduled to face Yanis Ghemmouri on this card but a shakeup occurred when Lapilus lost to his opponent. It is the first fight for Lapilus in the promotion since his release in 2016. He is here to draw more attention from the French crowd having just headlined an Ares FC card in Paris. Lapilus is the more technical striker in this matchup and thus a small betting favorite. I think his length and educated jab will give Loughran some problems if these two are to exchange at boxing range. Lapilus could succumb to a few takedowns however making this a much more interesting fight. Loughran has good pop on his strikes but I would prefer to see him wrestle early here in hopes of securing a victory. Loughran is up against it drawing a much tougher opponent than Ghemmouri but I still like his chances of getting this win. A close decision could fall into his favor given the work I expect to see on the mat and in close range facing Lapilus. Caolan Loughran by Decision
Nick: Taylor Lapilus will be returning to the UFC here after he was cut from the promotion back in 2016. He is 18-3 professionally, coming off five consecutive wins for TKO MMA and Ares FC. At 31-years old he’s in his athletic prime. Lapilus is a dynamic striker who throws as many kicks as he does punches. He’s effective at range and in the clinch. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling isn’t great, but continues to improve. He has excellent cardio and he’s shown he can carry his power into later rounds. Caolán Loughran will also be making his UFC debut here, having recently captured the Vacant Cage Warriors Bantamweight Championship via KO of Dylan Hazan. He is 8-0 professionally, with all but one of those wins coming via finish in the first or second round. At 27-years old he continues to improve. He’s a pressure brawler who seems most content fighting on the feet. He has an impressive highlight reel, but his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Loughran is a live underdog here, especially if he relies on a wrestling heavy gameplan. That being said, it seems most likely Lapilis can win this fight just striking at range. Taylor Lapilus by Decision

🚨🚨 LE FACE TO FACE DE TAYLOR LAPILUS

LE RETOUR pic.twitter.com/R7oRoTLPtf
— ARENA (@MMArena_) September 1, 2023

Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Morgan Charriere -350 vs Manolo Zecchini +275

Anthony: The main card begins with a fight at featherweight between Morgan Charriere and Manolo Zecchini. This should be a very fun matchup between two European prospects making their debut. Zecchini has found some varied success but overall he fights with a hyper aggressive style and big power punches from both sides with accuracy. His forward blitzing style could get him caught against a more technical striker like Charriere but there are also some liabilities in the defensive game of the favorite. Charriere tends to get countered a bit too often and while he can take punches just fine, not all decisions end up going his way. Zecchini will be eating big shots here early and likely breaking down over the course of a full fight. Charriere does well digging in punches to the body and using all of his weapons when fights get ugly. In more modest bouts Charriere can become tentative but with this style of opponent I expect a finish to materialize. Charriere by knockout seems like a solid bet while a club and sub finishing is not out of the realm of possibility. Morgan Charriere by Round Two KO
Nick: Morgan Charriere will be making his UFC debut here, coming off three consecutive wins for Cage Warriors. He is 18-9-1 professionally, and widely regarded as one of the better prospects to come out of France. Charriere is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and a crisp and compact striking style. Ten of his eighteen wins have come via KO, but he frequently looks to grapple if he feels he has that advantage over his opponent. Manolo Zecchini will also be making his promotional debut here as well, coming off back-to-back KO wins for Venator UFC. He’s a dangerous striker with surprising power for his frame, but he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Zecchini is 11-3 professionally, with nine of those wins coming via KO. He has solid cardio and continues to show improvements at 26-years-old, but he’s likely outmatched in this spot. Charriere is one of the more highly touted French prospects. I expect him to roll here as the UFC intends him to. Morgan Charriere by Round Two Submission

William Gomis -210 vs Yanis Ghemmouri +170

Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between William Gomis and Yanis Ghemmouri. This is an interesting booking on short notice with Ghemmouri originally slated to face Caolan Loughran at bantamweight. He appeared to be the B-side of that particular matchup but now takes an opponent perhaps more beatable given the styles of each. I find Ghemmouri a bit undersized compared to Gomis. Not only is Gomis athletically talented but very strong and a capable striker from the outside of range here facing a K-1 kickboxer. Ghemmouri is skilled in terms of his striking but less well-rounded in a cage fight compared to Gomis. There is also a lot I question about Ghemmouri’s resume while Gomis has at least won a few fights here in the UFC. I am not expecting many big moments here with both men keeping a steady pace and good defensive awareness. Gomis may not be the more active striker but I will pick him given the advantage in size and ability to fight more coherently. William Gomis by Decision
Nick: Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges, and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. Gomis is on a ten-fight win streak, coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner. He has shown excellent cardio and overall durability, and at 26-years old he continues to make improvements in all facets of his game. Yanis Ghemmouri is 12-1 professionally, having not lost a fight since 2015. He’s been fighting for a respectable regional promotion in Brave CF, with back-to-back wins there coming via KO. Ghemmouri seems to take a lot of damage in exchanges, but he does a good job building behind his jab on offense. Additionally, it seems he’s turned a corner in terms of landing shots with true KO power. He has solid takedown defense and a basic understanding of offensive grappling. He’s most content to stand-and-trade, but if he does hit the mat he’s relatively competent as a grappler. Ghemmouri will be moving up a weight class here, and Gomis already has UFC experience. I expect this fight to be competitive, but Gomis is the better side. William Gomis by Decision

Volkan Oezdemir -175 vs Bogdan Guskov +150

Anthony: This is a matchup at light heavyweight between Volkan Oezdemir and Bogdan Guskov. It is the UFC debut for Guskov who enters facing a former title challenger and longtime staple of the top fifteen. Oezdemir is well past his fighting prime at this point but recent performances show he still has the skills to win. He is not very quick or high volume as of late, but Oezdemir certainly still has power and the ability to punish guys for making mistakes. Guskov’s resume is extremely padded and while he certainly has knockout power of his own, I am not sure he will survive such a significant rise in competition. He will be searching for a straight or overhand right against Oezdemir, and very likely to be clipped and finished if he cannot land first. Guskov could find Oezdemir’s head on the centerline but it is unlikely a timely veteran makes a mistake facing this style foe. I do not recommend trusting Oezdemir with your money but one way or another we should get a finish here. I will be sweating out a bet on the under here with hopes of a finish in round one. Volkan Oezdemir by Round One KO
Nick: Bogdan Guskov will be making his UFC debut here, coming off four-straight wins via first round KO. He is 14-2 professionally, with twelve of those fourteen wins coming via KO. As impressive as his finishing ability has been on the regional scene, he really hasn’t been tested against a high level of competition. It seems he has decent BJJ, but there is no denying he looks to keep most fights on the feet. Volkan Oezdemir is an extremely powerful striker, who has been in there against a who’s who at 205 lbs. He’s faced an extremely high level of competition, but his career does seem to be on a bit of a downturn as his power isn’t quite as devastating as it was when he entered the UFC. In this particular match-up, his experience and countering ability are going to be his most effective tools. This is a volatile fight that I expect will end early, but I fully believe Oezdemir is still a level above Guskov. Volkan Oezdemir by Round One KO

Benoit Saint-Denis -165 vs Thiago Moises +140

Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight contest with Benoit Saint-Denis facing Thiago Moises. This should be a fun scrap with both guys eager to exchange in close and test one another on the mat. Saint-Denis pulled off an impressive upset win in July, beating Ismael Bonfim by submission. I am a big fan of his aggression and dogged fighting style. He is very big for 155 pounds and at a significant size advantage here facing Thiago Moises. Saint-Denis pairs good boxing from the southpaw stance with explosive takedowns and rather intelligent top control. With Moises being such a successful grappler, we may see him accept bottom position in this fight with hopes of securing a win via sub. He is a bit more proficient than Saint-Denis on the mat but it would surprise me to see either caught in a choke here today. It should be fun watching these two at least threaten with their jiu jitsu but if a stalemate, judge’s will defer to the better offensive striker. Saint-Denis is much more reliable to throw consistent offense while standing, and battering opponents when given a chance on the mat. This is a card lacking quality bets so of them all I find Saint-Denis rather solid. He is a guy that will receive massive praise from a supportive home crowd. Benoit Saint-Denis by Decision
Nick: Moises is a jiu jitsu specialist. He has a black belt under Paulo Streckert and boasts eight professional victories by submission. He was formally ranked as a lightweight, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, and Alexander Hernandez. He had a better performance against Islam Makhachev than most of Makhachev’s opponents. His striking is fairly predictable but he’s a talented grappler who seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner, and he enters this fight with an impressive 11-1 record professionally. Saint-Denis will be the better wrestler here, but he’ll need to be careful playing in Moises’ dangerous guard. On the feet, I do expect Saint-Denis to land the bigger shots. This is a high level match-up and should be one of the more competitive fights on the card. I’ll back Saint-Denis here with limited confidence. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two KO

Manon Fiorot -195 vs Rose Namajunas +160

Anthony: The co-main event is a flyweight fight where Rose Namajunas will take on Manon Fiorot. This card is showcasing a lot of French talent but nobody is anywhere close to Fiorot when it comes to title opportunities. This girl is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC and now facing a former champion. I have always been high on Fiorot and predict she will fight for the belt next year. Her boxing is exceptional with an average of 6.58 significant strikes landing every minute. She is extremely well-rounded with strong hips and the ability to win fights on the mat as needed. While Fiorot is a striker, she has mixed in at least one takedown in every promotional appearance thus far. Namajunas is much smaller than Fiorot physically as she makes the climb from strawweight to 125 pounds. Namajunas is of course skilled in her own right, appearing in seven title fights and winning on two occasions as the challenger. She is a more dangerous grappler than Fiorot but I find her chances of securing a submission rather slim today. Namajunas will likely attempt to strike with Fiorot and while she may pull off the upset, I find her outmatched in terms of both volume and physical strength. Fiorot is active in every minute of her fights while Namajunas is coming off a five round bout with Carla Esparza that saw her land a mere 37 strikes. I hate to bet against Thug Rose at odds this wide, but I truly believe Fiorot to be the real deal in this division. Manon Fiorot by Decision
Nick: Fiorot is primarily a striker. She times her kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. This does represent a step up in competition for Fiorot against a former champion in Namajunas, but she should have a considerable size advantage as Namajunas is moving up a weight class here. Namajunas is extremely quick when throwing combinations, carries surprising power for her frame and does an excellent job baiting her opponents into strikes. She has dangerous BJJ offensively and her wrestling continues to improve, but she’s been building a reputation as an inconsistent fighter. Namajunas has been out of action since she lost her title to Carla Esparza in one of the worst fights in UFC history. Neither fighter threw many strikes in that match-up. Barely anything happened over the course of five rounds and now we see Namajunas moving up a weight class after one of the worst performances of her career. That being said, she is a difficult test for Fiorot here. Rose is the best striker Fiorot has ever faced in the UFC. Additionally, Namajunas is likely the better grappler in this match-up which allows her more paths to victory. I understand why Fiorot is favored here, but I like the value of Namajunas as the underdog. Simply, she is the more tested and well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Rose Namajunas by Decision

Ciryl Gane -195 vs Serghei Spivac +160

Anthony: The main event is a heavyweight tilt with Ciryl Gane taking on Serghei Spivac. This is a pivotal fight in terms of the division’s pecking order. Spivac has been on quite the tear, victorious in six of his last seven fights with three straight wins by finish. SInce the start of 2022 he has implemented even better takedown entries to an already dynamic grappling attack. It is a clear clash of styles as he faces an agile striker like Gane. There is a clear deficiency in Gane’s ground game that needed to be addressed prior to this bout today. Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou exposed that Gane does not have great IQ or get-up skills once grounded. An opponent like Spivac who averages more than three takedowns per round will surely look to test Gane’s takedown defense again. I expect Bon Gamin to be a bit improved in his takedown defense but still quite green having only lost to Jon Jones six months ago. He will need to rely on his lateral footwork to stay out of the grasp of the oncoming Spivac. With Gane’s skills striking and in the clinch I find this to be a rather evenly matched bout and rather tough to predict on paper. Gane is rightfully favored in this spot but I would not at all be surprised to see Spivac leave the cage victorious. I am taking a gamble by picking Gane, hoping that he will keep range well and put his hands on Spivac both early and often. Cyril Gane by Round Three KO
Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Sergey Spivak has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivak averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. The key for him in this match-up will be to ground Gane early as he’s going to be considerably outclassed on the feet. Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. Ciryl Gane lands more than five significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than 2.3. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit and his footwork is extremely advanced for someone his size. Gane is 11-2 professionally, with his only losses coming to champions in Jon Jones and Frances Ngannou. Gane has just a 45% takedown defense in the UFC, but Spivak favors upper-body/judo style takedowns. Gane has struggled against traditional wrestlers, but Spivak will have to close distance standing in order to take him down. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Spivak ground Gane and pull of the upset here, I expect the favorite to stay on the feel long enough to score a KO in front of his home crowd. Ciryl Gane by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com