The 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in purgatory. Let’s not beat about the bush. The team is on a downward turn after a few years of competing and a Super Bowl win. Was it all worth it for what could be next? Absolutely. Even if things get tough over the next few seasons in Tampa Bay, that Super Bowl win will soften the blow. After all, that’s what it’s all about.
The lean years will inevitably kick off this season. Moving on from, and replacing, Tom Brady was always going to be a challenging feat. The Buccaneers could never fully flex their financial muscles in the free-agent market which meant targeting a quarterback like Geno Smith, Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr was never seriously on the table. Nor was a trade for Lamar Jackson or a move to trade up for one of the quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Instead, the Buccaneers opted for a cheaper move, adding Baker Mayfield on a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million. Mayfield has struggled over the last three seasons and the Buccaneers are now his fourth team in just over two years. Mayfield has the benefit of having more playmakers than ever before – with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans still performing as one of the better receiving tandems in the NFL – and the defense still has a solid core. But the excitement surrounding the team isn’t high.
Offense
Finding the Buccaneers offensive identity moving forward will be tough. Dave Canales has taken over as the team’s offensive coordinator after spending the last 13 years with the Seattle Seahawks, working his way up to the Quarterbacks coach in 2022. The vision isn’t clear though. Mayfield has proved that he isn’t a quarterback you can build around, and the situation around him isn’t good. Evans and Godwin are a top duo, but the lack of weapons past them is concerning.
The Buccaneers don’t have an effective run game to lean into either. The offensive line has one too many question marks heading into the season after the Bucs traded away Shaq Mason and switched Tristian Wirfs to left tackle. On top of that, center Ryan Jensen may be forced to retire after struggling to recover from a knee injury. The lack of a strong offensive line, an inefficient run game, and a quarterback that struggles to handle pressure is a bad mix.
However, the Buccaneers could get the rub of playing in a division where everything is up for grabs. It’s clear that they won’t be the strongest team in the NFC South, but they could make life difficult for their counterparts. Keep an eye on Mike Evans this year as his camp and the Bucs aren’t close on a contract extension, making him a prime trade candidate if things go off the rails this season.
One to watch: Trey Palmer
Defense
Despite a potentially deficient offense, Buccaneers fans can rest easy knowing they’ll always have an above-average defense as long as Todd Bowles is around the team. In the four seasons that Bowles has been with the club, the Buccaneers are 6th in EPA per play on defense and have the best success rate against the rush. They’ve been a well drilled unit.
That shouldn’t change too much in 2023. The core of the defense is still mostly intact but additions like first-round pick Calijah Kancey and free agent safety Ryan Neal will try their best to make a difference on the defensive line and in the secondary respectively. How the unit operates won’t be altered much either.
They run Cover-3 at one of the highest rates in the league – using it on 40% of their snaps in the preseason – and will blitz often. Only the Broncos and the Giants blitzed at a higher rate than the Buccaneers. How they get to those looks is through diversity however. The Buccaneers ran a ton of simulated pressures, using slot corners, linebackers, and the occasional safety as a fourth rusher.
One to watch: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.