I hate to admit it, but I’m slowly buying into some of the hype of these supremely talented rookie tight ends, and my rankings are showing it. Sure, they’re still at the end of most drafts, but if you cannot grab an elite tight end within the first 4 rounds, I’m starting to believe your best bet is to take a flier on a 1st year player who’s put into an extremely beneficial situation and essentially doesn’t have any competition for snaps.
Here’s my latest rankings – No surprises at the top.
Tier 1: It’s still just Kelce.
1. Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – Previous Rank 1
Kelce remains the stand alone best tight end in the league. He somehow exceeded expectations last season after the team traded away Tyreek Hill, recording career highs in receptions (110), yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12). The Chiefs second best fantasy option from last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is also no longer on the team. As long as Kelce can stay healthy as he enters his 11th year in the NFL, there’s no stopping him. Unfortunately that health took a hit with a knee injury in practice, eliminating him from Week 1 competition, but it doesn’t seem to be a long term issue. Breathe easy Kelce owners.
Tier 2: The Kelce consolation prize.
2. Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – Previous Rank 2
Andrews is listed as a tight end, but lines up and plays like a wide receiver. He rarely blocks – according to PFF, he’s been used as a blocker in passing plays a grand total of 27 times over his entire 5 year career. Sure, the Ravens revamped their wide receiver room and Monken’s offense is predicated around spreading the ball out and having a quick offense, but Andrews is such a difficult matchup problem for defenses that he’ll still finish as the team’s top receiving threat this year
Tier 3: These are the consolation prizes for the consolation prize, but they’re not bad ones to grab. Kelce is basically locked in as a 1st round pick and Andrews is gone by the early 3rd, but if the stars align you may be able to get somewhat equal production with one of these 2 tight ends at a much cheaper price.
3. Darren Waller – New York Giants – Previous Rank 7
Darren Waller hype has dominated the news out of New York this preseason, and it doesn’t take a lot of time to understand why. Daniel Jones will literally not throw to anyone else when Waller is on the field. He’s the definition of high risk high reward due to his injury history in Las Vegas, but he’s clearly more motivated to play for Brian Daboll and the Giants than he ever was for Josh McDaniels. Sure, he missed 14 games over the past 2 seasons with a myriad of knee, ankle and hamstring injuries, and yes, he turns 31 this September, but the upside with this pairing is just incredible. In true Waller form however, he’s already been slapped with an injury designation and could miss some time out of the gate.
4. T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings – Previous Rank 4
Fresh off signing a massive 4 year $66 Million contract with the Vikings, Hockenson has remarkably recovered from both his ear infection and nagging back injury that held him out of camp this preseason. The Vikings threw to Hockenson 86 times over 10 games last season after the trade, and clearly want to have him be an integral part of the offense going forward. I have concerns that he was traded for and had so much success due to Adam Thielen’s drop off in play last season. That will be vastly improved upon by rookie receiver Jordan Addison, but he should have no problem topping 100 targets and getting some key end zone looks in this offense.
Tier 4: Starting to get a little more risky with this next group – half have injury histories that are concerning and the other half are entering the season with some major questions in the offense as a whole. This is the group that you hope drops in your draft and you end up with a steal, but you definitely shouldn’t be reaching for.
5. Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles – Previous Rank 5
Goedert’s production is elite when you look at per-touch stats. Unfortunately he gets limited touches and lacks the touchdown rate that you’d expect from a tight end. His career high touchdown total over a season was way back in 2019, when he recorded only 5 scores. He’s topped 80 targets only once in his career (again in 2019), and has missed multiple games every season due to injury. Goedert might be tied with Kittle as the best all around tight end in the league, but like Kittle, all of those snaps spent blocking limit his fantasy upside while the talented weapons around them take advantage.
6. George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – Previous Rank 3
George Kittle is one of my favorite players to watch, but counting on another exceptional season from the 6 year vet seems like playing with fire. Kittle is already questionable for week 1 of the season as he deals with an abductor strain. He hasn’t missed a ton of games over the course of his career, but has suited up injured too many times to count. He became a touchdown machine at the end of last season when Brock Purdy came in which likely saved more than a couple of fantasy owners seasons, but with the early injury concern and the weapons he’s surrounded by, it’s hard to see Kittle topping any of the tight ends above him on the list.
7. Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers – Previous Rank 9
No one can really say what the Steelers offense will look like this season. But if preseason is any indication, they’re definitely trending in the right direction. The Steelers improved their offensive line to give quarterback Kenny Pickett a chance in the pocket, and drafted a pure blocking tight end who I think they’ll use to allow Freiermuth more freedom across the offense. His ceiling isn’t incredibly high, but his floor is what makes him a nice pick up for your TE1 spot. His touchdown totals took a dip last season, going from 7 in his rookie year to just 2 in 2022, so if the Steelers are able to get the passing game going more this season, the Muth could be in for a strong season.
8. Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – Previous Rank 6
There is no part of me that looks at Desmond Ridder at quarterback and thinks Kyle Pitts will have a chance to succeed. Head coach Arthur Smith is only concerned about the run game, and was extremely successful at it last season, so why would he change – especially after drafting the next big thing at running back. Bijan Robinson is not only an excellent runner, but an elite pass catcher who will be there to snag all of Ridder’s dump offs when the play inevitably breaks down. I only still have Pitts ranked this high because I think that Ridder will eventually get benched and Taylor Heinicke (who is also not very good) will step in and at least be able to hit Pitts from time to time. Pitts is so talented and deserves so much more, but until the team moves on at quarterback and opens up the offense, he’s a true do not draft candidate.
Tier 5: The guys you take at the very end of the draft, and hope they work out. If not, they’re easily droppable and tight end streaming becomes your weekly ritual.
9. Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars – Previous Rank 8
The Jags committed to Engram financially after he caught 73 of 98 targets last season on a 1 year prove it deal, but he enters this season with more competition in the passing game. Calvin Ridley has looked to be the true #1 receiver in Jacksonville, and with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones coming off of excellent seasons, the slices of pie are looking thinner and thinner. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Engram’s target share increases this year, and his career inconsistency is always a concern.
10. Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills – Previous Rank 15
Dalton Kincaid has a ton of potential and is stepping into a starting role for one of the most explosive offenses in the league. He was a high volume receiver in college, and the team really needs someone to step up behind Stefon Diggs in the receiving game. Kincaid will also rarely be asked to block – a major reason why most rookie tight ends struggle in the NFL. He’ll always be on the field, and is a matchup nightmare. He could be the WR2 that the Bills have been looking for.
11. Chigoziem Okonkwo – Tennessee Titans – Previous Rank 11
Okonkwo is a wildly efficient tight end that the Tennessee Titans need to utilize more in their offense. He led all rookie tight ends in receiving yards last season despite playing only 361 offensive snaps in 17 games. He’s now the team’s unquestioned starter, so while his target rate per route run is sure to decrease, his snap count should counter that and lead him to a potentially breakout season.
Tier 6: The rest of the pack.
I still don’t understand the belief in David Njoku – he had a career year last season with 58 catches for 628 yards. Sure he is fine in a pinch, but why not draft someone with more upside? His ADP suggests he is inline for a breakout season, but I just don’t see it in him.
Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave are rookies who have cemented starting roles with little to no competition for their respective teams. Musgrave has been impressive this offseason in Green Bay, so he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.
The injury concerns for Cooper Kupp may return Tyler Higbee to fantasy relevance for a small part of the season, but the Rams as a whole are a team I suggest avoiding.
12. Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers – Previous Rank NR
13. Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions – Previous Rank 19
14. David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – Previous Rank 10
15. Jake Ferguson – Dallas Cowboys – Previous Rank NR
16. Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams – Previous Rank 14
17. Gerald Everett – Los Angeles Chargers – Previous Rank 20
18. Juwan Johnson – New Orleans Saints – Previous Rank NR
19. Michael Mayer – Las Vegas Raiders – Previous Rank NR
20. Greg Dulcich – Denver Broncos – Previous Rank 12
21. Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears – Previous Rank 13
22. Dalton Schultz – Houston Texans – Previous Rank 17
23. Dawson Knox – Buffalo Bills – Previous Rank 18
24. Hayden Hurst – Carolina Panthers – Previous Rank NR
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Atlanta Falcons. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.