Giants’ Dwindling Playoff Hopes in NL Wild-Card Race Magnifying Uncertain Future
Amidst an endless string of losses, the San Francisco Giants appear headed for a second consecutive playoff-less October as the 2023 season nears the final week of September.
With just nine games remaining, there’s little time to make up ground on the rest of the competition in the jam-packed National League wild-card race, which finds the Giants sitting three games back of the final postseason spot.
That puts them behind the Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs – all of whom are ahead in the standings – in their pursuit of surging into a playoff spot down the stretch. And Thursday’s crushing defeat at Dodger Stadium certainly didn’t help their cause.
After falling 7-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco dropped to 76-77, falling below .500 for the first time since June 4th. As such, by losing three in a row and six of their last seven, the club’s playoff odds have plummeted to just 1.1 percent, per FanGraphs.
Things, however, looked much more favourable for the Giants at the beginning of September as they held a one-game lead over the final wild-card seed. Rather than adding to that advantage, they’ve gone in the opposite direction over the last three weeks and have fallen behind the rest of the pack.
Their downfall began with San Francisco opening this month on a six-game losing skid before recovering via a series sweep of the Colorado Rockies. But they’ve only won three other times since then, resulting in a 6-13 record thus far.
A slide like that would be devastating for any playoff hopeful during this point of the season. However, it’s been especially detrimental for the Giants, who are part of a five-team competition to determine the final two NL wild-card positions.
With little margin for error, San Francisco’s disappointing three-week stretch has decimated its playoff chances, which has seen their odds endure a 66-percent decline since August 31st.
Source: FanGraphs
It won’t get any easier for the Giants from here, as they own the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.546) in the majors, with their final nine contests exclusively against the Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
Since Los Angeles has already clinched the NL West Division, manager Dave Roberts may opt to rest a few of his star players, particularly during the final series of the regular season in San Francisco. So that should prove favourable. But it’ll still be difficult to knock off one of baseball’s premier clubs, as Thursday’s defeat proved.
The Padres probably won’t be a pushover, either, considering they’ve won seven straight and eight of their previous 10. Thanks to this late-season surge, they’re just a game back of the Giants in the standings, four shy of the final playoff spot.
Not only will San Francisco have to overcome its challenging road ahead, but it will also have to survive the recent losses of starter Alex Cobb and shortstop Brandon Crawford – both of whom could miss the rest of the regular season due to injury.
Applying the next-man-up mentality, the Giants called up their top two prospects, Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano, earlier this week to help fill those voids in the starting rotation and on the infield. They also released veteran Paul DeJong, paving the way for Tyler Fitzgerald’s MLB debut.
But it raised several eyebrows for a team on the verge of falling out of the wild-card race. According to skipper Gabe Kapler, however, this recent youth movement gives them the best chance of staying afloat in the short term.
Those intentions will likely remain unchanged until the Giants are officially eliminated from postseason contention. If their losing ways continue however, it’ll be difficult not to have that focus shift toward the franchise’s impending roster turnover.
Joc Pederson, Alex Wood and Crawford – who remains hopeful of returning for an emotional season finale in Game 162 – will headline San Francisco’s 2023 free-agent class this winter. That trio could also be joined by outfielder Michael Conforto, whose current deal includes an opt-out after this season.
Assuming Conforto exercises that clause, the Giants would have roughly $89 million on the books for next season, with Mitch Haniger acting as the club’s highest-paid player, per AAV, at $17 million. If Cobb’s 2024 club option is triggered, which it likely will, the payroll will rise to $97 million.
Possessing less than $100 million in guaranteed salaries before arbitration hearings and contract tendering would be a significant drop-off for an organization that sits 13th in Collective Balance Tax payroll ($217 million) in the majors this season.
While that’ll come with plenty of financial flexibility, it will also cloud the franchise’s direction heading into 2024, especially with much of the veteran core entering free agency. If this competitive window is to remain open, they must address several roster flaws this winter.
The concern that’ll require the most attention from San Francisco’s front office is the outfield, particularly its defense, which ranks 23rd in DRS (-11) and tied for 26th in OAA (-12) across the sport this season. But improvements will also need to be made offensively as well.
Without a perennial All-Star hitter, Kapler’s creative matchup-based approach has been adequate up to this point, although the lineup has struggled in the power department in 2023, placing 23rd in ISO (.150) and 25th in SLG (.389).
On top of needing an offensive boost, the Giants would greatly benefit from adding another front-line starter alongside ace Logan Webb, who’s been worth a career-high 4.5 fWAR. The problem, however, is that the next closest pitcher’s value is Cobb’s, at 1.8.
Last offseason, general manager Pete Putila acted aggressively in free agency, hoping to capitalize on a star-studded class that included Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa – only to come up short on each franchise pillar.
San Francisco’s management still doled out a handful of free-agent contracts to acquire players such as Conforto, Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. But many of those contracts haven’t panned out in Year 1.
If Putila intends to be just as aggressive this off-season, it’ll be vital to spend on higher-ticket items this time around, focusing on a top-tier group that could include Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger.
Both Snell and Bellinger, if available, would dramatically improve the Giants’ 2024 roster. Neither would be easy to procure amidst a lesser free-agent class to last winter’s corps. But if signed, that duo would instantly transform this team into a legitimate playoff contender.
Outside those two, the talent level will likely dip considerably across the pitching and position player markets. Even so, it wouldn’t be a terrible outcome if the organization had to settle with two of Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman and Matt Chapman.
Whichever path the Giants ultimately choose, whether it’s via free agency or an impact trade, the 2023 campaign has put into perspective how much they’ll need to improve to make waves in an increasingly competitive National League.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.